Predictions: Week 9

Week 8 Predictions Record: (2-4)
Overall Predictions Record: (24-24)


Clearly, my predicting prowess is only on-par with pure guess-work, and only slightly better than my fantasy team's ability to win so #whatsthepoint?


*~*Game Of The Week*~*

David Lin's team once again makes GOTW, and once again, it's against (on paper) a tough team.

Unicorn Burps v. I'm Coming Home.
Every week I vote against Duke's team, and every week he pulls something off.  Yahoo! projections says his team has a 68% chance of losing to David's team, but they also project Mason Crosby to have 4.91 points on their bye week.  Yahoo! is so dumb.  But I'll have to agree with their prediction on this one.  If AnneJulie Green plays, I like David's chances.  Even with Shady the Plague in his lineup.

Winner: Unicorn Burps



Remaining Games

Odoyle rules! v. #myteamSUCKS
I'm not betting on my team anymore.  Only to get my hopes up and then dashed.  I like my chances a little better with Beast Mode, but I'm still not getting my hopes up.  Eli was a good pickup for Eric, seeing as how he'll be passing all day with Luck and crew destroying the Giants.  Emmanuel Sanders will probably blow up again, knowing my luck.  Don't discount this game.  Eric and I are going to fight hard for that last playoff spot.  And this is one important battle towards victory for either team.

Winner: #myteamSUCKS



DeMarco Da Murrier v. Chou Chainz
No analysis needed.

Winner: DeMarco Da Murrier



jaMAULing time v. Charlotte Hornets
Not going to lie, I think Andrew's going to put up a good fight.  Abraham is just on freaking fire, and I'm not sure Jamaal has enough to counter that.  And how about them Hornets??  Kemba Walker is so #clutchmoney.  Ok, so what it was against the Bucks, but still.  Changing the name back, getting the colors back, re-designing a sick court - I'm loving it and don't remember the last time I was as excited for an NBA season as this season.  I hope the real Hornets do as well as this Hornets team.

Winner: Charlotte Hornets



The Pain Train v. Seenie J
Drew Brees might blow up against the Panthers, but Luck should easily demolish the Giants.  Maclin continues to be a good move on Jeff's part, and even though Jeff will be without his workhorse Matt Forte, Gabs is starting Doug Martin, who is accurately projected by Yahoo! as getting 0.00 points.  Gabs, want to consider trading Orange Julius for a better RB option?

Winner: Seenie J



Terrific Tortoises v. Spider Pig
Tough matchup for David this week, since Luke's team has been doing relatively well as of late.  Palmer should get significant points against Dallas, as should Demaryius and Arian Foster against their respective teams.  David's got fewer things going his way with Gio likely out and some bye week unfortunates.

Winner: Spider Pig

Power Rankings: Week 9

Invariably, around this time of the season, I start getting discouraged and / or depressed at how ridiculous my fantasy football team is doing.  This season has been no exception.  My team has reached a all-season-low with a forgettable loss, but the only way to go from here is up.  I refuse to acknowledge the sadness of my team.

However, the playoff probability chart bids me to do otherwise:

Eric, with his impressive Week 8 performance, has surpassed me in probability of making the playoffs.  Granted, his 17.31% chance over my 11.99% is not a big difference, but this is a much different story than two weeks ago.  It looks like he and I will be fighting for that last spot, unless Gabs's team continues to rise and / or David Li's team continues to fall.  These next few weeks will be very telling, since me, Eric, David Li, and Justina will be playing each other at some point before the season is over.  Those could be crucial playoff-deciding matchups.

In spite of the upsets this past week, there wasn't much of a shakeup in the rankings, simply because it wasn't fair to rank teams just on one week's performance.  So, still considering the entire season's body of work for each team, I present to you this week's rankings:


1. Charlotte Hornets (6-2) [1]

There's no denying Abraham's current dominance in this league.  Having 3 Defenses may be playing to his favor, seeing as how he's getting a ridiculous number of points from them.  Is he planning 2 weeks ahead for defensive favorable matchups??  Genius.


2. Seenie J (5-3) [2]

Jeff continues to make bank with that Maclin trade.  Brian Quick, not so much, but overall he's stillgot a strong team.


3. Spider Pig (5-3) [3]

Valiant effort, but that Torrey Smith just played your heart.  He's not worth the heartbreak, take it from his previous owner.  Who happens to be in 9th place but whatevs.


4. Unicorn Burps (5-3) [4]

David's team is on the mend, but these past few weeks have been Unicorn Hiccups - he's too active of a manager not to rebound and end the season strong.


5. DeMarco Da Murrier (4-4) [5]

Not sure if she meant to not play a Defense, but whatever strategy she had didn't help her this past week.  Her team's recent bout of inconsistency has me slightly concerned, but she definitely has potential moving forward.


6. I'm Coming Home. (6-2) [7]

2nd in the league, but 7th in the points for category.  I don't know how he's doing it, but he needs to give my team some of that.  Out of respect, I will bump his team up a little.


7. Terrific Tortoises (4-4) [6]

Whoa, Percy Harvin got 5 points!  Anyone got an RB2 for David?  One that will actually perform consistently?


8. #myteamSUCKS (3-5) [10]

Eric's team is on the rise, watch out.  Oh, and I get to play him this week.  Great.  At least it won't be Rodgers beating me, only Emmanuel Sanders.  The bitter pill will be only half as hard to swallow.


9. Odoyle rules! (3-5) [8]

I refuse to believe my team is that bad.


10. jaMAULing time (2-6) [9]

Andrew's constant team-name changing didn't help him win this past week, but at least Jamaal Charles looks to be back.  And since Russell Wilson and TY Hilton are the only players worth mentioning on his team, and they've already been used, what will he change his team name to next??


11. The Pain Train (3-5) [11]

The upset I didn't call happened!  With help from KC Defense and... Brandon LaFell??  Oh yeah, and I guess it helped that Drew Brees did well.  If Gabs can pull out another impressive week, he might be a serious contender for that last playoff spot.  For now, I'll keep him down here.


12. Chou Chainz (2-6) [12]

I know for a fact Aaron's team is still ugly.  Mine was just uglier this past week.

Monday Lulz

I'm going to lose to Aaron.



I give up.

Predictions: Week 8

Week 7 Predictions Record: (2-4)
Overall Predictions Record: (22-20)


I will say that this week, more so than previous weeks, has the most potential for upsets.  I didn't predict any, but I wouldn't be surprised if Aaron beat me, Andrew beat Jeff, and Eric beat David Li.  I want to say at least one of those upsets is going to happen.  Which might make my predictions irrelevant, if I'm predicting against my predictions, but whatever.


*~*Game Of The Week*~*

David Lin's team once again makes GOTW, and once again, it's against a tough team.

Unicorn Burps v. Charlotte Hornets
QB
It'll be a shootout between Manning and Rivers.  Have to go with Manning riding his record-breaking weekend momentum into Thursday night, though.
Advantage: Unicorn Burps

WR
It looks like AcidJazz Green might be out for another week.  Without him, David's WRs are no match for Abraham's.  Even with him, David's WRs fall short.
Advantage: Charlotte Hornets

RB
Marshawn should run all over Carolina, and Abraham is left scratching his head about what to do with his RB2 spot.  Uh oh.
Advantage: Unicorn Burps

TE
Neither TE is that great (Reed doesn't have a decent QB throwing to him), but Reed shows more promise.
Advantage: Charlotte Hornets

K/DEF
Miami D should stuff Jacksonville pretty easily.  Gostkowski is still #1 Kicker, too.
Advantage: Charlotte Hornets

Winner: Charlotte Hornets
Abraham's team is going to have to win with its WRs, and I think it's doable.  Assuming he finds an RB2 that can get him at least 5 points (which might be a big assumption), I think his team will do what it's done the first half of the season - surprise me with winning games it probably shouldn't be winning.



Remaining Games

Odoyle rules! v. Chou Chainz

Winner: Odoyle rules!
All I'm going to say is I better not lose this one.



DeMarco Da Murrier v. I'm Coming Home.
QB
I never thought I'd meet the day when I saw Tony Romo winning a matchup against Matthew Stafford.  But Dallas has been beasting it.
Advantage: I'm Coming Home.

WR
Justina benefits from having VJax back in her lineup, but Duke's got a WR corps filled with big names.  However, I think that's all they are - big names, no substance.  Especially Fitzgerald.
Advantage: DeMarco Da Murrier

RB
Dat DeMarco + LaMiller combo doe.
Advantage: DeMarco Da Murrier

TE
I'm surprising myself a little here, but I think Olsen will be heavily relied upon when Carolina is trying to play catch up from behind and Cam desperately needs someone to throw it to.  Granted, the Patriots could be in the same predicament.  But I like Olsen better in this one for some inexplicable reason.
Advantage: DeMarco Da Murrier

K/DEF
Only because Pittsburgh Defense against Indy probably won't do so hot.
Advantage: DeMarco Da Murrier

Winner: DeMarco Da Murrier
Ok, maybe this will be the week that begins Duke's team's slide.  Or maybe I should stop hating on Duke's team.



WILSONNNN v. Seenie J
QB
I have a feeling Russell is going to tear Carolina's Defense to shreds.
Advantage: WILSONNNN

WR
Jeff has Maclin back, but I actually think Andrew's WRs will do better this week.  Just a hunch.
Advantage: WILSONNNN

RB
Even if Jamaal doesn't have a concussion and doesn't sit out on Sunday, Jeff's RBs have proven themselves throughout the season.  And I don't know why he's so stingy about Sproles.  It's not like he'll be playing this Sunday anyways, so he won't do much better than Andrew's other RB - Jonathan Stew... oh wait, nvmd.
Advantage: Seenie J

TE
Dwayne Allen has Andrew Luck throwing to him.  Jordan Cameron has... wait, who is Cleveland's QB right now?  Tim Tebow?
Advantage: Seenie J

K/DEF
Seattle's Defense has been pretty atrocious, and even though they're up against Carolina, I'm slightly favoring Philly D, even up against Arizona.
Advantage: Seenie J

Winner: Seenie J
I think this one will be closer than you may think.  I wouldn't be surprised if Andrew pulled out the upset.  He wants that last playoff spot bad.



The Pain Train v. Spider Pig
QB
Matt Ryan hasn't been super impressive.  We'll go with Brees on this one.
Advantage: The Pain Train

WR
Demaryius, however, will probably outscore all three of Gabs's WRs.
Advantage: Spider Pig

RB
And I wouldn't be surprised if Arian Foster scored more than both of Gabs's RBs.
Advantage: Spider Pig

TE
Julius Thomas may have had a setback, but he'll be needed this Thursday in the Denver-San Diego shootout.
Advantage: The Pain Train

K/DEF
Gabs may have a slight advantage with Hauschka against Carolina and KC Defense against St. Louis.  But the advantage is ever so slight.
Advantage: The Pain Train

Winner: Spider Pig
Gabs wins in category numbers, but the deficit of his losses at WR and RB will be too large to earn his team a victory.  My, how the mighty have fallen.



#myteamSUCKS v. Terrific Tortoises
QB
Aaron Rodgers is going to destroy New Orleans D.
Advantage: #myteamSUCKS

WR
David's wise patience and planning at this position will continue to pay off as his two rookies will flourish in their respective games.  Even with Eric's tricky Denard Robinson WR/RB play.
Advantage: Terrific Tortoises

RB
Eric does a good job in picking up Tre Mason, and he may actually be a solid rest-of-the-season pickup, too.  Unlike someone else Eric picked up earlier in the season (starts with a K and rhymes with Bile).  But let's be real, Gio Bernard had a bad week last week and will bounce back this week.
Advantage: Terrific Tortoises

TE
Bennett is questionable, so I'd rather bet on the TE that will likely play.
Advantage: Terrific Tortoises

K/DEF
Both teams have Defenses that are in favorable matchups, but I think Eric's Kicker will give him the slight edge here.
Advantage: #myteamSUCKS

Winner: Terrific Tortoises
David needs some redemption after a poor showing last week.  Against a struggling Eric's team, this is a good week for that redemption.

Power Rankings: Week 8

After an interesting week when things got a little less clear (our top four teams all have 5-2 records), I have not much to comment on in terms of league activity besides updating you all on playoff-making-probabilities:

As you can see, the top-ranked teams (Abraham, Luke, David Lin, Jeff) still have put themselves in a secure position to make the playoffs - all with over 89% chance of making it.  Jeff's chances dropped a little with his loss, while David Lin and Luke saw a bump up because of their wins.

The middle-tiered teams (Justina, Duke, David Li, me) saw some more dramatic changes.  With her win, Justina increased her chances of making the playoffs by a whopping 20%.  Duke also got much closer with a win (71.52% from 48.72%), since he only needs two wins at this point to reach the 7-win mark.  David Li also gets a slight bump up in his playoff chances with a win, but my team took a big stumble with that loss (59.27% to 33.54%).  Getting 4 more wins in the last 6 weeks looks more and more daunting...  I may just have to bank on 6-wins getting me in and the bottom teams losing out from here.

The bottom four aren't entirely out of the race - Andrew gave his team some hope with a win, now with a 5.93% chance of making it (much better than 1.78% from last week!), but Gabs and Eric didn't help themselves with losses.  And let's just assume that Aaron won't make the playoffs - he'll pretty much have to win the rest of his games to have a chance.  AND HE'S NOT GOING TO WIN THIS WEEK.


1. Charlotte Hornets (5-2) [2]

Abraham unfortunately didn't get the help he needed from his QB and Alshon, but his team still put up decent numbers.  His team gets a bump up in the rankings only because Jeff's team did so poorly comparatively.  Abraham still has a scary team that I wouldn't want to play on any given week, especially with Hillman taking over RB duties in Denver.


2. Seenie J (4-3) [1]

Maclin on bye didn't help him this week - I'm willing to bet it would have made the difference for Jeff's team.  Not sure I know why he started Tate over Forsett, either, but whatevs.  Jeff's team takes a setback in its quest to win the regular season, but I think they'll bounce back.


3. Spider Pig (5-2) [4]

The only blemish in Luke's season thus far is that two-week stretch when his team just fell off the charts, in a bad way.  After that stumble, his team has recovered quite nicely.  Nicely enough to reach first place in the league.  He's been doing a good job picking up players on the waiver wire (Asiata, McKinnon, Benny Cunningham, Torrey Smith (sorry, everyone)) and making use of them.  Matt Ryan may be his biggest question mark at this point, which is not a bad problem to have.  And now he has the most points-for in the league.  This could be bad news for the rest of us.


4. Unicorn Burps (5-2) [3]

Whew, David avoided a close one there.  He's just holding on as long as he can until AlmondJoy Green can get back in action.  Looking back, his last 4 weeks have been pretty mediocre.  He's still got heavy hitters on his team (Peyton, B.Marshall, Beast Mode), but they aren't clicking on all cylinders for some reason.


5. DeMarco Da Murrier (4-3) [6]

Impressive win by Justina's team.  That DeMarco + Lamar Miller combination will continue to pay dividends.  Golden Tate, though, probably won't be putting up those kind of numbers on a weekly basis.  Even with Megatron out.  She'll have VJax back next week, which should help.  Her team gets a bump in my rankings even though she's still only officially 6th in the league.


6. Terrific Tortoises (4-3) [5]

David avoided a loss in spite of his terrible showing this week (second to last in scoring).  He can thank his Aaron Bye for that.  That Gio let him down, but his WRs picked up the slack, as they ought to (even without Percy!).  It'll be interesting to see how Harvin does in the NYJ offense.  I think it'll end up hurting David's team more than helping.  But thankfully, he has some backup help from KB and Sammy Watkins.  Smart planning on his part, not giving them up earlier on in the season.


7. I'm Coming Home. (5-2) [8]

I guess I should give Duke's team the decency of being ranked higher than my team since he beat my team this past week.  #frustrating


8. Odoyle rules! (3-4) [7]

I don't even know anymore.  Cutler kind of screwed me over and I'm regretting more and more every day that Rodgers trade.  And a lot of my other poor fantasy football life decisions.


9. TY come again (2-5) [10]

Hey there's still some hope for Andrew's team.  Maybe?  Russell Wilson continues to kill it, even without Percy, and Jamaal Charles seems to be waking up from his early-season slumber.  Plus, if you name your team after a player, they have to do well, right?  Plus, his chances of making the playoffs increased dramatically with this win!


10. #myteamSUCKS (2-5) [9]

Not a bad showing this week, but not enough for the win.  Eric needs to find some RBs to rely on, or else his team will likely continue to descend in the ranks.  Rodgers (sorry, everyone) and Jordy are the only thing going for him.  It's kind of scary that his team could have been much worse had he not traded with me.


11. The Pain Train (2-5) [11]

Orange Julius just didn't show up and Khiry got him 0.6 points... those are significant holes, even though the rest of his team did decent.  Someone's gotta be down here, I guess.


12. Chou Chainz (1-6) [12]

I really hope I don't lose to this team this week.  I know I'm jinxing myself by writing it, but I have this deep gut-wrenching feeling that I'm going to be shamed by this guy.  Wait, NO.  I REFUSE.  MUST.  STAY.  STRONGMAN.

Tuesday's for WHAT?!

I am (at Luke's encouragement) launching a new segment tentatively titled "Tuesday's for What: Questions I had when I woke up this morning and checked my fantasy team." Don't worry, I'll punctuate my deep philosophical thoughts with gifs!

1. Why am I in 6th place?
2. Why does Abraham have 3 defenses?
3. Is it like that time Gabs had, like, 5 TEs?
4. Is Aaron still alive?
5. Who is Tavon Austin? Why is he on my team? Do I fantasy while drunk?!
6. Is it fair that AP is on Luke's IR considering he's not injured?

This has been Tuesday's for What.

Monday Lulz

I wasn't going to do it, because I was all blogged out from the playoff analysis, but someone convinced me otherwise, so here it is: rapid speed Monday Lulz before MNF.

• This is what I get for dissing Duke's team.  Go Le'Veon!  15% chance of winning, according to Yahoo!  That's better than...
• In what fantasy football universe does Eric have a 2% chance of winning his game vs. Luke??  Yahoo! why are you so stupid????  So... Eric wins if Arian Foster gets -6 points????  Hm... that would for sure be a Tuesday Lulz if it happened.  Luke - have you considered benching Foster to guarantee the win?  Yahoo! says there's a chance you might lose it.  #watchoutEriciscomingforyou
• Eric started Pierre Thomas.  #LULZ
• Aaron is easily becoming the Taco of our league.  We can from this point on call a team's week playing Aaron the "Aaron Bye."  Automatic win, baby.
• Can Antonio Brown get 24 points FTW Abraham and keep his 1st place spot in the league??  Brown already has done it once this year.  Justina says "Wuh oh."  
• And what the heck Golden Tate?  He's a punk.  He deserved that black eye from Percy, I'm pretty sure.
• Bahahaha Houston D is going to give David Lin an aneurysm.  So in my other league, I need them to score less than 10 points.  David needs them to score less than 6.  I hope they score 7. BAHAHAHAH.
• Looks like Jamaal's BACK!!  Apu approves.

Bam, just in time.

Playoff Probabilities

Lady and Gents, I present to you a special blog post which you can read at your own leisure as you follow these glorious-or-frustrating football games this wonderful Sunday.  Warning: It's a long post, and there's a massive numbers geekout at the end, so reading it may require multiple attempts.

After 6 solid weeks of Fantasy play, we are essentially at the halfway point of the FF season.  The playoff picture is becoming more clear now, and as with any year, many developments, some expected (ugliness of Aaron's team due to autodraft, suspended players not playing, and the Panthers having no semblance of a running game, but still surviving much thanks to David Li's KB and being in a terrible division) while others not so much (the downfall of Jamaal and Megatron and the rise of DeMarco Murray), have unfolded.

With that said, here are a few observations from the season thus far:

• The top three teams in the league (Abraham, Jeff, Luke) have also scored the top three amount of points for.  Jeff is officially 2nd in the league, even though his team has the most points for thus far.  I think it's safe to say that these three teams have been the top three performers up to this point in the season, even if they haven't been the most consistent on a week-to-week basis (Luke).  My power rankings do not have Luke's team in the top 3 simply because his team has been feast-or-famine, and his RB situation is questionable, as are his WRs.  However, his team's performance has set him up nicely for playoff contention and a deep run with a 4-2 record and 3rd most in the points for category.

• The teams with the top two QBs in the league (Andrew Luck, Philip Rivers) also happen to be the top two teams in the league (Jeff, Abraham).

• The team with the best 3-combination-WRs in the league (Antonio Brown, Randall Cobb, Alshon Jeffery) also happens to be the top team in the league (Abraham).  I calculated this by ranking the players based on fantasy points scored, so Antonio Brown = 1 because he's scored the most points among WRs thus far, Randall Cobb = 5, Alshon Jeffery = 12.  Therefore, Abraham's WRs = 1 + 5 + 12 = 18.  The next best WR-combo is Steve Smith Sr. (3) + Mohamed Sanu (11) + Terrance Williams (15) = 29 from yours truly.  I don't think that's indicative of anything.  Third place goes to Jordy Nelson (2) + DeSean Jackson (10) + Emmanuel Sanders (23) = 35, all hailing from Eric's team - once again, doesn't appear to be indicative of much.  I do think it's significant, however, that Abraham has hands down the best-performing WRs in the league. 

• RB gets more interesting.  Justina has DeMarco, who is crushing it as the #1 RB, but her next best RB is Lamar Miller (14), giving her two best RBs a grand total of 15.  Who beats that?  Matt Forte (2) + Justin Forsett (8) = 10 for Jeff.  Marshawn Lynch (4) + Ahmad Bradshaw (7) = 11 for David Lin.  With Giovani Bernard (6) + Fred Jackson (11) = 17 coming up closely behind for David Li.  So Jeff wins the RB battle, and it shows in his record and points for.  Also keeps him, David Lin, David Li, and Justina at the top of my power rankings

• TE?  Gabs wins with Orange Julius.  Indicative of nothing, because the rest of his team has struggled.

• Kicker goes to Abraham with Stephen Gostkowski, but let's not kid ourselves with any sort of correlation there.

• Defense?  Philadelphia.  I think this is significant because they have scored a whopping 94 points, with the next best defense being Houston, which has scored 68.  Who owns Philadelphia Defense?  Chen San Jie aka Jeff.

• Therefore, it appears that if you can put together a team with top scorers in at least two positional categories, you have a good chance of domination in our league.  Cases in point: Jeff has Andrew Luck (#1 QB), Matt Forte + Justin Forsett (best-performing RB duo in the league thus far), and Philadelphia Defense (by far the best Defense).  Abraham has Philip Rivers (#2 QB), and Antonio Brown + Randall Cobb + Alshon Jeffery (by far the best-performing WRs in the league).  Oh, and the best kicker (Gostkowski).

• What about Luke's team?  How is he succeeding?  I'm of the opinion that he is winning by scrapping together players and hoping that they do well that week.  It's working the majority of the time, but consistency has been difficult to maintain.

• Granted, these numbers-converted-to-rankings aren't perfect, because they don't account perfectly for players who have had bye weeks and don't account for the disparity between, say, DeMarco Murray (#1 RB but with 122 points) and Matt Forte (#2 RB but with 93.5 points) - a 28-point difference - versus Matt Forte and Arian Foster (#3 RB but with 92.4 points) - a 1-point difference.  However, I think they are still telling to an extent.

What about Playoffs?

• Historically in our past 12-team leagues, a team that makes the playoffs has had no less than 6 wins.  Depending on how the other teams do, some years the number of wins went up to 7.  So I think it's safe to say that if a team is able to pull off 7 wins this season, they are guaranteed a spot in the playoffs.  Win 6 games, and you may or may not have a chance.

• Since I had some spare time, I decided to create a formula to calculate the chances of each team making the playoffs.  And thus begins the

<geekout>

• These are the assumptions that I made (which may not be valid assumptions):
• If a team wins 7 games, they are in the playoffs.
• A team's past performance is indicative of how strong of a team they are, and that is also indicative of how well they will perform the remainder of the season.
• A team's strength of remaining schedule is based primarily on their opponents' past performance, and will influence how well the team will perform the remainder of the season.
• The amount of FAAB waiver wire money left for a team will influence, albeit not a significant amount, how well their team will perform the remainder of the season.

• With those assumptions, this is what I did:

• I calculated each team's current strength based on a method I previously posted about.  
• Essentially, if a team scored the highest points in a week, they are awarded 11 points for that week.  2nd highest scorer gets awarded 10 points, and so on.  The lowest scoring team gets 0 points.  What this translates to is that the team with the most points that week would have won 11 out of the 11 games that week, and hence gets a "power score" of 11.  2nd highest scoring team would have won 10 out of 11, and therefore gets a "power score" of 10, and so on.  The lowest scoring team would have obviously won 0 of the 11 games that week, and gets a "power score" of 0.
• I averaged these points over the span of the last 6 weeks, and that provided a number that is supposed to be indicative of how strong that team has been up until now.  Or what I've called each team's "power score."

• The green means that team won that week while the red means that team lost.
• As you can see, Jeff's team has performed the best overall the first 6 weeks, followed by Abraham and Luke. 
• These numbers are somewhat reflective of the total "points for" column in our league, with the exception of some teams (Duke, Gabs, Eric, Aaron).  However, I am of the opinion that the "power score" is a better indicator of strength of someone's team over what their "points for" is.  So just accept that.

• I then calculated how many games each team needed to win in order to get 7 wins by the end of the season.

• I calculated strength of remaining schedule by adding the "power scores" of all the teams that each team is playing the rest of this season.  For example, in Week 7, I'm playing Duke, and his team has a "power score" of 3.667.  In Week 8, I play Aaron, whose team has a "power score" of 3.5.  I add up all the scores for the remaining teams I'm up against, and I get my remaining strength of schedule.  The higher the strength of schedule number, the harder a team's remaining schedule is.

 

• As you can see, Luke has the hardest remaining schedule (he finishes the season playing David Li, Jeff, me, Abraham, and Justina), followed by Duke, then Aaron.  Jeff, me, and David Li have the easiest remaining schedule.

• I also took into consideration remaining FAAB waiver wire money.  This was a straightforward input.  My reasoning is that someone with $95 remaining is better off than someone with $0 left, because at least that person has options.  Whether that money is put to good use is another question, so I didn't value remaining FAAB waiver wire money that highly (see below)

• I took all these factors, placed weights on their relative importance (power score [~80%], strength of remaining schedule [~20%], and FAAB waiver wire money remaining [<1%]) and created a "probability factor," which sums up the chances of each team winning their remaining games.  
• In theory, each team has a 50% chance of winning any given game.  However, with the above factors, I would argue that Jeff has a much better chance of winning his remaining games than Aaron does, simply because Jeff has a more proven team and a much easier remaining schedule. 
• I could have calculated this for each remaining game, but that would have taken too much time, so I calculated an average "probability factor" for each team - one number that applies to all of that person's remaining games, not necessarily contingent upon the opponent (except for the fact that strength of remaining schedule was factored in to the probability factor).

• You can read the chart like this: "Tim's average chance of winning any given game of his remaining 7 games in the season is 54.27%."  As previously mentioned, in theory, that percentage should be 50%.  With the aforementioned factors taken into consideration, the percentages for each team is no longer 50%.

• I then calculated each team's chances of winning "x" remaining games (which equals however many games that person needs to win reach 7 wins for the season) based on the above "probability factor" and binomial probability formulas David Lin helped me find.

And the final results...

• As you can see, Abraham has a 99.22% chance of making the playoffs, largely because he already has won 5 games, so all he needs to do is win 2 of the remaining 7, and he's pretty much in.  That gives him a slight advantage at this point over Jeff, who only has 4 wins, even though Jeff has a better "power score" and a much easier remaining schedule.

• Other shoo-ins include Jeff (97.23%), Luke (86.45%), and David Lin (84.34%), all who have 4 wins under their belts.

• The middle of the pack is led by Justina (63.8%), followed by a tight race between me (59.27%) and David Li (59.13%), and rounded out by Duke (48.72%).  While Duke's team isn't strong (11th rank in power score) and has a tough remaining schedule (2nd hardest), he has already won 4 games, so his chances of making the playoffs are considerably better because of it, since he only needs to win 3 more of the last 7 games.  If he had only won 2 or 3 games, his chances would have been much lower.

• As far as the bottom-dwellers, there will be 4 teams that likely won't make the playoffs.  Probability says those teams will be Eric (9.88%), Gabs (7.99%), Andrew (1.78%) and Aaron (0.91%).

• The gap between the bottom 4 and the middle 4 seems huge (Duke's 48.72% to Eric's 9.88%), but I think that just shows the weakness of the bottom 4.  Eric and Gabs both have only 2 wins, which means they need to win 5 of the last 7 games to make playoffs.  They are also 8th and 10th, respectively, in terms of their power score.

And for curiosity's sake, what if we set the bar lower, and assumed a team only needed 6 wins to make the playoffs?  This is how the final chart would look:

Much better chances, overall.  But obviously, the chances relative to each other remain the same.  Abraham still has the best chance while Aaron has the worst.

Now, you have to remember that these are mid-season calculations.  Even after this week, these numbers will probably change.  And as I mentioned earlier, a lot of assumptions were made (Perhaps we will see a season where one or more 6-win teams make the playoffs?  Past performance doesn't always predict future behavior?).  However, this gives us a snapshot of how teams have done thus far and how they are predicted to do the rest of the season.

Some of you might be saying, "Oh, so all you're telling me with all these number gooblygook is that Eric, Gabs, Andrew, and Aaron probably won't make playoffs?  I could have told you that just by looking at the standings!"  Well then, fine.  But now you have solid numbers to back that thang up.  And I have felt accomplished.

</geekout>

Predictions: Week 7

Week 6 Predictions Record: (5-1)
Overall Predictions Record: (20-16)


So I've been working on this calculator for probability of making the playoffs, similar to Nate Silver's Elo Ratings, but of course, not nearly as epic or involved, because I'm not that smart, or have that kind of time (regardless of what you might think).  But watch out, blogoworld, some playoff analysis will be in store in the near future, with some bold (probably not so bold, actually) predictions!  In the meantime, enjoy these italics predictions.


*~*Game Of The Week*~*

Game of the heavyweights.  Jeff has his impressive past performance to help him out while David has his unimpressive cheating performance.  #wearethe99%  #occupyffnuthang  #umbreffarevolution  #unikony2014  #notmarginalizingthoseeffortsjusttryingtobefunnymaybenotfunny  #hashtag

This is your commissioner, ladies and gentlemen: 

Unicorn Burps v. Seenie J
QB
Current Indy QB vs. past Indy QB.  The future wins this one, especially against an easier opponent in Cinci D.
Advantage: Seenie J

WR
I'm actually not impressed with either team's WRs.  Since David has Brandon Marshall, I'll give him this one, but I don't think it'll be the WRs that decide the game.
Advantage: Unicorn Burps

RB
Can Marshawn bounce back?  Yes.  But is Marshawn + Ahmad Bradshaw a better start than Forte + Ben Tate (against Jacksonville)?  No.
Advantage: Seenie J

TE
Not sure if David will actually be starting Donnell, after he got burned by him last week.  But it's not like Dwayne Allen is more impressive.
Advantage: Seenie J

K/DEF
I think Jeff's kicker will do better than David's, but David's defense will do better than Jeff's.  So then what?  Defense wins championships.  Or something.
Advantage: Unicorn Burps

Winner: Seenie J
David lucked out not having to face Jeff when Maclin is playing.  I think that would have sealed the win for Jeff.  Now, it'll be a much more interesting matchup, but I think Jeff will still pull it off.



Remaining Games

Odoyle rules! v. I'm Coming Home.
QB
Kaep's against Denver this week.  I'm liking Cutler.
Advantage: Odoyle rules!

WR
Megatron is doubtful, but Duke will have Roddy ready if needed.  I really hope Fitz's performance last week was a fluke and he's back to crappy status this week.  #tim'squestionabledecisionmaking  But I am liking Sanu taking over receiving roles in Cinci.
Advantage: Odoyle rules!

RB
Why am I happier with Oliver than I am with Shady?  It just feels wrong.
Advantage: Odoyle rules! 

TE
Gronk is better than anyone I can scoop off of waivers.
Advantage: I'm Coming Home.

K/DEF
Crosby kicking against the Panthers favors Duke, because the rest of the matchups seem like a wash.
Advantage: I'm Coming Home.

Winner: Odoyle rules!
I'm hoping this is the start of Duke's team's decline.  Not only does it potentially free up some space in the playoffs, but I could use all the wins I can get.  More on this in my playoffs analysis coming soon.



DeMarco Da Murrier v. Charlotte Hornets
QB
Philip Rivers should continue to impress.
Advantage: Charlotte Hornets

WR
Abraham's got the best WRs in the league, plus Justina's two best options won't be playing this week.
Advantage: Charlotte Hornets

RB
Can't bet against DeMarco.  And Lamar Miller only adds to Justina's RB threats, big time.
Advantage: DeMarco Da Murrier

TE
I wonder if Greg Olsen is related to MK and Ashley.  What are they up to these days, anyway?
Advantage: DeMarco Da Murrier

K/DEF
Both Justina and Abraham have done pretty impressive jobs finding the right defenses to play.  Abraham seems to have been doing slightly better, and it looks like his matchups are a little more favorable this week.
Advantage: Charlotte Hornets

Winner: Charlotte Hornets
Abraham will keep his spot atop the league rankings, and maybe even finds his way up the power rankings...



TY come again v. The Pain Train
QB
Russell Wilson should return with a vengeance.
Advantage: TY come again

WR
TY!  Come again!  Especially since Gabs has nothing at WR.
Advantage: TY come again

RB
I think Gabs might actually have a chance at winning an RB matchup this year.  Eddie Lacy vs. Carolina is a very enticing matchup.
Advantage: The Pain Train

TE
Once again, advantage Julius.
Advantage: The Pain Train

K/DEF
Seattle Defense should mess the Rams up pretty badly.
Advantage: TY come again

Winner: TY come again
Both teams are hungry for a win, but it's looking like Apu will win his first.



#myteamSUCKS v. Spider Pig
QB
Rodgers will pound the Panthers, unfortunately
Advantage: #myteamSUCKS

WR
...and Jordy will benefit from Rodgers's pounding of the Panthers, unfortunately
Advantage: #myteamSUCKS

RB
Arian Foster has been impressive.  Plus, it doesn't hurt that Eric has no RBs worth starting.  Like, literally no RBs.
Advantage: Spider Pig

TE
I'm liking Antonio Gates in this one.
Advantage: Spider Pig

K/DEF
Buffalo Defense has an easier matchup against Minnesota.  That should play nicely into Eric's favor.
Advantage: #myteamSUCKS

Winner: #myteamSUCKS
Do I feel an upset coming along?  Why, perchance, I do.



Chou Chainz v. Terrific Tortoises

Winner: Terrific Tortoises
Did I really need to analyze this one?