Predictions: Week 13

Egad, my prediction record took a big hit this past week.  Boo for rapid fire predictions.  I hope I'm (5-0) this week, for more reasons than one.

	Tim	Luke	Eric
Last week's record	(1-4)	(0-0)	(3-2)
Overall record	(36-24)	(8-7)	(36-24)
Percentage	0.60	0.53	0.60

odoyle RULES v. The Debbinator
Matt Forte is a question mark.  Sucks for David, not for me!  Matt Ryan needs to get his act together and get back to scoring 25+ points each week.  Especially this week, which I think he'll do against the Saints.  My WRs have some pretty nice matchups, as do David's.  I like my RBs over David's non-existent RBs, and I think that'll be enough to make my case for the 6th spot in the playoffs.
Winner: odoyle RULES

Kardashian Esk. Bros v. Rainbow Warriors
Please raise your hand if you care and your name doesn't start with a J.  Jeff's team been in a major slump, and I can't forsee it pulling itself out of it this week.  Although technically it could still make playoffs.. so sad.
Winner: Kardashian Esk. Bros

MUSCLE Hamster v. choubacca
One last stand for Eric.  Even if he doesn't make the playoffs, he can at least end the season with a bang if he demolishes Aaron's team.  Unfortunately, I think Aaron has some pretty nice matchups: RGIII, Arian Foster, and TRich, not to mention his WRs (minus Cobb, who ebbs and flows with Rodgers).  I don't think even the Muscle Hamster can muscle Eric's team out of this one.
Winner: choubacca

THE Pain Train v. Terrific Tortoises
If Percy Harvin is back in action, then David's got a good advantage in this game.  Eli will do well against the Redskins, as will Decker vs. the Bucs.  Chris Johnson has proved that he can do decently against tough run defenses, so Houston may not be too difficult of a task for him.  While Gabs has some promise in C.J. Spiller and Julio Jones, I don't think he'll have enough support from his other players to put this one in the bag.  It's ok, though, because they'll most likely be seeing each other week 1 in the playoffs, and that's when Gabs will need to bring his A game.
Winner: Terrific Tortoises

RelientK v. Spider Pig
Laura needs this one.  Badly.  Unfortunately, she is up against Luke's team.  And her matchups are all tough.  And Peyton Manning is going to throw all over the Bucs.  And Jamaal Charles is going to run all over the Panthers.  New England defense might give her 20+ points again, but even that probably won't be enough for a win.  A sad ending to a sad season, unfortunately.
Winner: Spider Pig

WEEK 13 (for some of us, a last gasp of hope to make the playoffs) 

MUSCLE Hamster vs choubacca
i'm still fuming that fat chubs got down right lucky last week w/ that douche Brady getting her 40 points and then some how miraculously have Reggie Bush score a TD since what seems like last year and then Forte getting hurt to allow Michael Bush to get some 70 yds and 2 TD's.. ALL of these things happened and she still only beat me by a measly 2 TWO points. 

yes, i'm still in the category of hoping to win this week so squeak in to the 6th playoff spot but it's a long shot. Aaron has absolutely ridiculous match ups this week and should blow me out by a good 10-20 points. *fingers crossed* here's to hoping for another 50 point performance by MUSCLE Hamster (not likely) but at least my team isn't as crappy as chubby chub chub's team. and i can end my season on that note
  
odoyle RULES vs The Debbinator
i need Tim to lose to have a chance but i really don't know how this one will turn out. David is going with Forte but how will he perform w/ the ankle? it's gonna be another shootout tonight w/ the Saints vs Falcons but I'm hoping Brees goes off for 6 TD's.. and 5 of them goes to Lance Moore who I have inserted into my line up.. Tim has Colston though and that doesn't give me a good feeling.. he also has Matty Ice and Roddy.. maybe the snail Turner will run for 6 TD's so it keeps Ryan and Roddy on check. wishful thinking. Tim's RB's are hit or miss and i think that Ridley will get shut down this week. slight edge to David
 
Chubs vs Rainbow Warriors
i still don't get Justina's attempts at awful team names.. so i'll just write out Chubs because that's what best describes her. i will call it now, there is absolutely NO WAY her Bush whacking duo gets close to what they got last week. here's to hoping Rodgers goes off and destroys her.. (but not so much that Jeff gets more points than i do) :)
  
THE Pain Train vs Terrific Tortoises
while they're both pretty evenly matched in the WR and RB department this week, i expect Eli to be the difference maker in this match up. he's coming off a great week last week and dismantling the Packers and he's got another prime time match up on MNF against RGIII. but whoever wins this one, won't mean much. I think it'll be the Tortoises though.

RelientK vs Spider Pig
the same goes for Laura as Tim, i need her to lose.. Rice and Marshall have tough match ups this week against Pitt run D and Seattle's pass D.. big hit for Laura and i just don't think Dalton will do much. Peyton will be Peyton and Charles gets to play against Panthers run D? i expect 80 points out of him after what Bryce Brown did to them on last MNF.. (if only i would have played him, i would've destroyed chubs by 25).. sigh.

Power Rankings: Behind The Scenes

I just wanted to give anyone who was interested a screen shot of the Excel spreadsheet I've been using to help me with the power rankings this season.  Each week, I'd give a 9 to the team that scored the most, followed by an 8 for the second highest scoring team, all the way to a 0 for the lowest scoring team.  Then, I took an average over however many weeks, divide it by 9, and that's the number found in the "%" row.  I think it's a fair gauge of team strength based on weekly performance.  Green = games actually won, Red = games actually lost.  While I don't use this as my only guide, it's definitely been a helpful tool.

Click to enlarge

Just some things to note, which I've touched on already over the season:

-Luke has been the most consistently dominant, and it's shown, especially sans last week.

-Laura ought to be (8-4) and in second place.  But alas, no use dwelling on that fact.
-David Lin ought to be (6-6) and fighting for a spot in the playoffs.  Hm.. role reversal, anyone?
-My team is terrible, probably because I spend more time on this blog than I do on my team... NAW COULDN'T BE.

Return of Analytics!

Everyone's favorite... numbers! I decided to compile Tim's Power Rankings over the course of the season to take a look at how our teams have fared. I understand that I'm making a huge assumption that Tim has sound judgement (I'm showing him faith, despite his lack of faith in my integrity as former commissioner). Below is a table of each team's ranking through 13 weeks of action. I used real names since team names have changed:

What does the data tell us?? Well let's take a look a few stats...

We've all known that Linovo and Choubacca have been running this league - no surprise there. 

• It's interesting to see that David Lin made the 3rd highest jump from the 1st half to the 2nd half of the season with a 2.1 position jump. 
• Along the same lines, thanks to Tim's extremely gracious ranking in Week 11, he's seen a 2.3 position jump in the 2nd half of the season. 
• Because i don't feel like resaving the image, I'll give David Li a verbal shoutout here. He had the best 2nd half spurt jumping 2.4 positions. 
• On a sadder note, Justina's team has been the most sporadic, with a whopping 2.6 standard deviation in rank. She also has the worst season split at -4.1. 

Let's look at this a different way...

"The Elite"

David and Aaron's teams got little love early, but have become strong contenders. Luke's team has obviously risen like Christian Bale did and leads the league in weeks at #1 (6 weeks).

"Playoff Contenders"

So it's clear that Gabs' team looked dominant to start, but has fallen to mediocrity. Perhaps he should actively manage his fantasy team. 

Furthermore, Laura's team has been pretty consistently middle of the pack while Eric and David Li came from the cellars to be legit playoff contenders. 

"Male Angler Fishes"

My how the might have fallen. Jeff and Justina were both league favorites to start but have since fallen behind in the league. Jeff's WR woes added to Aaron Rodgers' inconsistency plague him, and Justina's 1st round pick was a bust (Cam). At least Tim has been consistent through the whole season! 

Interesting stat: Tim and Laura lead the league in consistency, both coming in at 1.1 standard deviations!

*Side note: Why name them male angler fishes? They are pretty small and pathetic. Click here to learn more!

Courteously yours,

Pig.

How I feel about beating Eric

Eric got Bush-whacked this week.

Make all the fat jokes you want, I don't even care.

Courtesy of kanyewesanderson.tumblr.com

Power Rankings: Week 12

With one more week to go, each team in our league still technically has a chance of making the playoffs.  While a few are in full control of their own destinies (David Li, Laura (essentially - there's little chance I'll score 70 more points than her team will if we both win)), others will have to rely on others losing (me, Jeff, Eric), or are simply relying on a lot of luck (Justina).  Needless to say, it gives many of us a lot to play for this last week, when usually there are a handful of teams that would have stopped caring two weeks ago.

1. Spider Pig (9-3) [1]

Not a pretty week for Luke, but luckily for him, he's got another week to get all the suckiness out of his system before playoffs start.  With some interesting production coming off of his bench (Garcon is back), he might be faced with some tough decisions on who to start in a few weeks.

2. choubacca (7-5) [4]

It seems like Aaron took his drop in the rankings personally and put up a statement win this week, not only breaking Laura's fantasy heart, but also scoring the most points for the week.  It'll be interesting to see if his team can maintain its prior dominance or if it will fall back into its October-November slump.

3. The Debbinator (9-3) [3]

David's going to be hurting without a reliable RB2.  It looks like he might get by off of Brees's production combined with his WRs, but I'm not sure if he'll make it far with just that.  Side note: he's only the 7th most prolific scorer in our league (1169.04 points for), yet he has the chance of becoming the regular season champ.  I still can't figure out what kind of trickeries he's pulling.

4. MUSCLE Hamster (4-8) [2]

Ok, so I was off with predicting Eric's team winning the rest of his games.  Who knew Justina's team would show up this week?  However, I still think his team is better (right now) than his record might suggest.  And I still wouldn't want to be the team playing his team on any given week from here on out.  Unless your team is a bunch of Bush-whackers, obviously.

5. THE Pain Train (7-5) [5]

He secures a spot in the playoffs this week with a 1-point victory.  While it wasn't an impressive showing, having Julio back in action will keep Gabs's team hopeful for a win or two in the playoffs.  That RB2 spot looks pretty bad, though.

6. RelientK (5-7) [7]

I think that was about as good of a performance that Laura could have asked for from her team.  But this week was a pretty good summary of the first half of her team's season: good performances with only losses to show for them.  And her team has suffered greatly for those weeks.  Next week, she'll be up against a formidable foe, and with a win, she'll most likely make it to the playoffs.  I think her team has a pretty good chance of pulling off the victory, but we'll see.

7. Terrific Tortoises (6-6) [6]

For all intents and purposes, I think it's safe to say that David Li has made the playoffs this season!  The only way he fails to make it is if he loses this week, both Laura and I win, AND I score 63 more points than his team.  It's possible, but not likely.  Round of applause for his much-improved sophomore season.  :)  Chris Johnson ended up being a not-so-terrible pick after all.. kind of.  Yes, David could have done better with his first two picks, but the same could be said for many of us, especially for the teams this far down in the rankings.


8. Kardashian Esk. Bros (4-8) [9]

I'm sure she's happy about her win, even though at this point, she's playing for pride more than anything.  That's enough to warrant a bump up in the rankings, though.


9. odoyle RULES (5-7) [10]

How upsetting is it to have a team that has scored the least amount of points the whole season still be in position to have a decent chance at making the playoffs?  Not for me!

10. Rainbow Warriors (4-8) [8]

5-game losing streaks are rough.  And I guess Aaron Rodgers wasn't worth the #1 overall pick this season after all.  Don't worry Jeff, I would have done the exact same thing.  But then again, I'm not too far ahead of you in the rankings, so I don't know if that should comfort you or not..

A Historical Look

I was trying to explain fantasy football to Tina last year, and she got around to asking how long we had been doing this for.  I had a vague idea, but I'm glad Yahoo! has faithfully kept track of all of our previous seasons.  So I thought it'd be fun to rewind a little and see who has won in the past seasons.  By the way, what I consider our first fantasy football season was in 2004, even though it wasn't until 2005 when we all met at my house after church one Sunday and did an actual live draft.  That was fun.

2004
Regular season:
1. gnateinnoc (Gabs)
2. Tim's daddy (David)
3. BIGjellyPwnzaLLinFF (Eric)
Playoffs:
1. BIGjellyPwnzaLLinFF (Eric)
2. RelientK (Laura)
3. gnateinnoc (Gabs)
By the way, Tina found Gabs's team name amusing.  My, how things change..

2005
Regular season champ:
1. FLAWLESS VICTORY (Luke)
2. bigjellypwnzallAGAIN (Eric)
3. odoyle rules (Tim)
Playoff champ:
1. FLAWLESS VICTORY (Luke)
2. odoyle rules (Tim)
3. Manly Men (Mike)
Back when Shaun Alexander and Larry Johnson dominated the league and took Luke to victory.  This was the season we all had a for-real live draft.

2006
Regular season champ:
1. Manly Men 2 (Mike)
2. The Debbinator (David)
3. Wheeeee! (Lan)
Playoff champ:
1. Manly Men 2 (Mike)
2. The Debbinator (David)
3. Wheeeee! (Lan)
This was the only season where the regular season and playoffs top 3 were exactly the same.

2007
Regular season champ:
1. The Crapinator (Luke)
2. odoyle rules (Tim)
3. Arodbagelsall (David)
Playoff champ:
1. The Crapinator (Luke)
2. odoyle rules (Tim)
3. RelientK (Laura)
Luke and his classy names.

2008
Regular season champ:
1. Sick of Losing (Jeff)
2. Pirates (Khoa)
3. iOWNchubs_bottomline (Eric)
Playoff champ:
1. Pirates (Khoa)
2. RelientK (Laura)
3. the nose picker (Luke)
Interestingly enough, the other Pirate in our league (Laura) ended up with a 5-8 record, but was runner up in the playoffs.

2009
Regular season champ:
1. Arodbagelsall (David)
2. InToWin (Khoa)
3. odoyle rules (Tim)
Playoff champ:
1. Arodbagelsall (David)
2. InToWin (Khoa)
3. choubacca (Aaron)
I don't remember much from this season, probably due to dental school keeping me occupied.

2010
Regular season champ:
1. FavreDollarFootLong (Khoa)
2. Linovo (Luke)
3. Arodbagelsall (David)
Playoff champ:
1. Arodbagelsall (David)
2. The Rainbow Warriors (Jeff)
3. JUSTINA OWNS (Justina)
This was when Jeff's 2-11 team came out of nowhere to get runner-up in the playoffs.  And Justina finally breaks in to a top 3 list!

2011
Regular season champ:
1. aaronisyourdaddy (Aaron)
2. JUSTINA OWNS (Justina)
3. Rainbow Warriors (Jeff)
Playoff champ:
1. JUSTINA OWNS (Justina)
2. Spider Pig (Luke)
3. aaronisyourdaddy (Aaron)
Hopefully it's fresh enough in your minds that you all remember what happened.

Just some stats:
Regular season winners:
Luke - 2
Gabs - 1
Mike - 1
Jeff - 1
David Lin - 1
Khoa - 1
Aaron - 1

Playoff winners:
Luke - 2
David Lin - 2
Eric - 1
Mike - 1
Khoa - 1
Justina - 1

"Medalists" (finished in top 3 either in regular season or playoffs - includes winners from above lists)
David Lin - 8
Luke - 7
Tim - 5
Khoa - 5
Eric - 4
Laura - 3
Mike - 3
Jeff - 3
Aaron - 3
Justina - 3

Gabs - 2

Lan - 2

Interesting things to note:
-I'm just going to go ahead and get this out of the way: David Li does not show up on any of these lists, but in all fairness, he only has participated in one full season thus far.  It took Justina 6 years before she achieved top-3 status (give or take a few years, since she probably wasn't in the league for some of those six years).  So don't count him out!  But everything else I write after this doesn't include David Li into consideration, for obvious reasons.
-Outside of Luke winning twice during the regular season and playoffs, there has not been a clear-cut manager that has dominated our league from year to year.  Furthermore, I question Luke's two years of winning on the basis of him being commissioner and, on more than one occasion, using his powers in a suspect manner.  On the occasions that he was caught, he turned the wrongs into rights, but I would not be surprised if a few of his actions were not picked up on, especially since those were the years when people did not pay as close attention to our league as they do now.
-I do believe, however, that David Lin's two playoff wins are legitimate, and are a testament to his managing skills (and plethora of time to waste back then).  Also of note is his "medalling" 8 times, which is the most of all the managers thus far. I also attribute Lan's two-time "medalist" title to David, because I was fully aware of who managed Lan's team that year.
-Tim and Laura are the only two managers that have yet to win a regular season championship or playoffs championship.  I was watching the ESPN show 30 for 30 on the origins of fantasy sports (specifically, fantasy baseball, which started it all), and according to the show, the guy who invented fantasy baseball, and subsequently, fantasy sports, has yet to win a championship.  Not to say that I'm as important as he is, but I find some comfort in that.  Plus, I think we're well overdue for some sort of reward.  This season just might not be the one for us, though..

Conclusion:
It's pretty neat to look back and see that we've been doing this for 8 seasons and going in to our 9th season.  We've lost some people and gained some people along the way, but we've still got our core group of relentless managers who come back each year ready to conquer.  At least we've lasted longer than the XFL.

Week 12 Predictions!! (thanks Tim for the friendly reminder games start early on Turkey day)

MUSCLE Hamster vs "Bush-whacked"
no need to explain the results of this one.. if i end up losing somehow, pigs will fly.
 
odoyle RULES vs Rainbow Warriors
both Ryan and Rodgers had "disappointing" weeks last week.. i expect Ryan to bounce back in a huge way which will propel Tim to victory this week. plus i've never heard of any of Jeff's WR.. which is troubling (okay, i've heard of them, but who exactly are they? i'll never know cause they stink)
 
The Debbinator vs Terrific Tortoises
LI has more to right for, LIN is in cruise control. i'm solely hoping LIN beats LI to help my chances of reaching the playoffs.. *fingers crossed* (plus Brees will likely throw it 50+ times because of the 49ers run defense.. playing Mendenhall is questionable but i would take that any day over Mathews.. watch him get hurt after the first series)
 
THE Pain Train vs Spider Pig
Gabs makes several moves to his roster this week in hopes of bolstering his playoff chances.. i'm not convinced though w/ the Ballard pick up and Finley.. who drops everything thrown his way... hmm)
 
RelientK vs choubacca 
i've been giving Ms Jones lots of love as of late as she makes a push for the playoffs, much like myself. but i believe she runs into a buzz saw this week as Aaron's match ups are super scary imo sorry Laura, i still love ya! :)

Predictions: Week 12

Crap, I forgot the Thursday games are early this week because of Thanksgiving.  Rapid fire predictions!

	Tim	Luke	Eric
Last week's record	(2-3)	(0-0)	(2-3)
Overall record	(35-20)	(8-7)	(33-22)
Percentage	0.64	0.53	0.60

odoyle RULES v. Rainbow Warriors
I like my chances of beating Jeff and technically staying in the playoff race (not really).  Matt Ryan, please redeem yourself.  For redemption's sake.
Winner: odoyle RULES

Kardashian Esk. Bros v. MUSCLE Hamster
MUSCLE Hamster FTW!  Refer to my power rankings if you have questions about this prediction.
Winner: MUSCLE Hamster

The Debbinator v. Terrific Tortoises
Battle of the Davids!  David Li has more to fight for, plus he has slightly better matchups this week (minus Eli, who has been very questionable as of late).
Winner: Terrific Tortoises

THE Pain Train v. Spider Pig
In spite of some tough matchups, Luke continues his streak of dominance while Gabs continues to desperately scramble for a spot in the playoffs.  The difference is Peyton Manning.
Winner: Spider Pig

RelientK v. choubacca
I'm not buying what Aaron's trying to sell.
Winner: RelientK

Power Rankings: Week 11

Sometimes, things just need to get shaken up a little bit..

1. Spider Pig (9-2) [1]

It's simple - Luke's team continues to score points and win.  That's what it takes to be a fantasy football champion.  Plus, he was without Marshawn Lynch this week.  Check this video out (fast forward to 45 seconds in) if you are skeptical of what he can do on the field.  Specifically, look at that stiff arm he throws at the 57 second mark.  Just sayin'.

2. MUSCLE Hamster (4-7) [7]

Yeah, you better believe it, folks.  How can Eric's team be so high with such a lousy record?  I'll break it down for you:
1. If there is a team right now that I would NOT want to play, it's Eric's.  Right now, in my opinion, he has the scariest team in our league, second to maybe Luke's.  Even with McCoy's status being uncertain, he's got some depth on the bench at RB to makeup for that loss, at least in the short run.
2. Eric's team has blown the whole league away these past three weeks, consistently scoring either the most or second most points each week, and I don't foresee them slowing down anytime soon.
3. If there's any team right now that I think has a great chance of vying for the title besides Luke's team, it's Eric's.  I'm going to go ahead and call it now that he wins out the rest of the season, makes the playoffs as the 4 or 5 seed, and plays in the championship game against Luke.
Hence, ladies and gentlemen, your new #2 team.

3. The Debbinator (8-3) [3]

Unimpressive performance this week, but there's no justification in me bumping David's team down.  I'm sure he's just hoping Nicks comes back to full strength and performance.

4. choubacca (6-5) [2]

How ugly is Aaron's team right now?  That's a rhetorical question, because all of you, including Aaron, should know the answer.  The last four weeks, he has been scoring in the bottom half of our league, and even this week, with his team at full strength minus Victor Cruz, he still couldn't beat out the worst team in our league.  I was tempted to take it down even further in the ranks, but I couldn't find another team worthy of the spot.  I'm just going to say that it's statistically possible - and not all that unreasonable - that Aaron's team doesn't make the playoffs, and I think that should concern him a little.

5. THE Pain Train (6-5) [4]

Gabs blew his chance of clenching a playoff spot, and now I'm not so sure he can clench one anymore.  I think it'll boil down to the final week, when he plays the Terrific Poops.  I'm sure Gabs is hoping his team will be less like Bruce Banner and more like The Hulk from here on out.  But who knows, it's been all over the place.

6. Terrific Tortoises (6-5) [8]

Impressive performance this week (somewhat).  Kudos to scoring the most points, but if you break down how he got those points, you'll see it's probably more of a one-time gig than it is a sustainable act.  However, he'll have Percy Harvin (hopefully) and Chris Johnson back in the mix next week, which are options David can comfortably rely on.  I will say that David's team has impressively set themselves up for a good end-of-the-season run, so it'll be fun to see where that takes him.

7. RelientK (5-6) [6]

Not a pretty win, but a win nonetheless, and an important win to keep Laura's post-season relevant.  However, the nice addition of Felix Jones may not offset the uncertainty of some of her players (Andy Dalton?  Jordy Nelson?  Dwayne Bowe?  RB2?).  I guess only time will tell, but I like her chances of snatching the last spot in the playoffs.


8. Rainbow Warriors (4-7) [5]

The season is just crumbling before his eyes.  Even with 25+ points from Gronk (who will no longer be providing those services to Jeff anymore this season), he scores the least amount of points this week.  Bye bye, season, bye bye post-season.


9. Kardashian Esk. Bros (3-8) [10]

Nice victory for Justina.  As a prize, I am giving her a bump in the rankings.  Next week, I fully expect to have my spot back in the rankings, but I'll let her enjoy it for a week.  We have to do what we can to keep ourselves entertained down here.

10. odoyle RULES (4-7) [9]

It was my chance to slay the beast and dash the Hamster's hopes of a late season run, and set myself up for a chance in the dance, but no, my team was too weak and incompetent.  When I saw Matt Ryan's stat line (when the game had ended), I was certain that he had gotten hurt early in the game or something.  I mean, what QB scores 1.74 points in fantasy football and actually tries?!  But then I found out he threw 5 freaking picks.  And I STILL didn't get it.  That's only -10 points, right?  1.74?!  Whatever. 

WEEK 11! (a little late, sorry) 

MUSCLE Hamster vs odoyle RULES
my little hamster runs all over the sorry Panthers D this week. also, Megatron is starting to come around, even w/o the TD's he's suppose to have. I think I pull off a 3rd win in a row this week
 
Kardashian Esk. Bros vs choubacca
chubs starts both Bush's this week. she's going to get bush-whacked cause they're both terrible. her team is terrible. the end.
 
Rainbow Warriors vs Terrific Tortoises
Aaron Rodgers is back this week. Jeff avenges last week's narrow loss to the flaming luke. good game David Li. good game..
 
The Debbinator vs Spider Pig
i agree w/ Tim, a meaningless match up b/t 2 of the top teams. looking at their line ups, no one has anything that really sticks out to me as an advantage. i'll say Luke wins because Peyton will have another field day against the Chargers.. Brees will be up by so much by the end of the first quarter, he'll sit the final 3 out. that's how bad the Raiders are.
 
THE Pain Train vs RelientK
i felt bad for Laura Jones.. not having a RB2.. plus I love hoarding them and they will serve me no purpose on the bench.. why would i need anyone else when i have a hamster ragin on the roids? i don't even know. plus Murray may be back in a week or so.. but he may or may not be at 100%.. we'll see how this pans out. I needed another WR so I think it works out for both. with this said, even w/ Felix, I feel Gabs' team has monster match ups in his favor this week. Laura also asked me whether she should start Owen Daniels or Scott Chandler. I said Chandler. if she miraculously wins this week, I think Chandler and Felix will have good weeks.. 
  
  

Predictions: Week 11

As our league undergoes another trade in the works, I just wanted to give you all a friendly reminder that trade deadline is Friday, November 23.  :)

	Tim	Luke	Eric
Last week's record	(3-2)	(0-0)	(4-1)
Overall record	(33-17)	(8-7)	(31-19)
Percentage	0.66	0.53	0.62

odoyle RULES v. MUSCLE Hamster
A win this week would mean a lot for both teams.  Eric's team is much better equipped to make it happen.  But I'm still hoping for a miracle.
Winner: MUSCLE Hamster

Kardashian Esk. Bros v. choubacca
Aaron is more or less at full power now, but who knows what version of his team will show up this week.  All signs point to his team coming out with a W, but I wouldn't be surprised if an upset happened in this matchup.
Winner: choubacca

Rainbow Warriors v. Terrific Tortoises
Huge holes in David's team due to the bye week.  While Jeff won't have Adrian Peterson, I think he'll have enough help from Rodgers and crew to easily win this one.
Winner: Rainbow Warriors

The Debbinator v. Spider Pig
A meaningless matchup between two (8-2) teams.  Luke has Marshawn on the bench, but even without Beast Mode, I think his team is strong enough to come out victorious.
Winner: Spider Pig

THE Pain Train v. RelientK
This one was hard for me to pick.  Who knows how well Jordy will do for Laura on his return to the field?  And what about her RB2 (looks like she might get a so-so fill-in for this week after the trade, given that DeMarco Murray doesn't return)?  But then, for Gabs, Julio Jones might be held out this week (which I hope he is, for Roddy's sake).  I know Laura wants this win more than Gabs does, but I'm afraid to say I'm not sure she'll get it.
Winner: THE Pain Train

Power Rankings: Week 10

With 3 weeks remaining in the season, we already have 2 teams that have clenched playoff berths, and 8 more teams (ok, maybe 7) clawing for the last 4 spots.  A week ago, it might have seemed obvious who those other 4 teams to make the playoffs would be, but now, things have changed.  Once-strong teams are starting to show weaknesses, and a freaking hamster on steroids has entered the scene.

1. Spider Pig (8-2) [1]

Would you look at that - his two newest acquisitions become his saving grace this week in what would have probably been a total demolishing, had he not had Marshawn and Dez Bryant.  Of course, it's all speculation, but I think it's safe to say his team is way better off post-trade (and post-Cookout).

2. choubacca (6-4) [2]

I'm going to give Aaron's team the benefit of the doubt for one more week before he takes a dive in the rankings.  Yes, his team has been terrible the past three weeks.  At times, inexcusably terrible.  But the only excuse I'll give him this week is that he had RGIII, Trent Richardson, and Randall Cobb on bye.  I'd still argue that his team, when at full force, is still very strong.  And that's why he's still #2 in the rankings.  He has one more week to prove me right or wrong.

3. The Debbinator (8-2) [3]

While David doesn't have a super strong team (statistically speaking, his team ought to be (5-5) right now), he's found ways to get wins, and he's found his way into the playoffs.  Once again, he's #3 by default, but that's not saying much in our league right now.

4. THE Pain Train (6-4) [6]

I don't know what to make of Gabs's team.  Matthew Stafford has determined to be bipolar this season, and it's affected Gabs's team in ways good and bad.  Also.. 19 points from Danny Woodhead?!  Granted, Gabs would have gotten more from his non-waiver-acquired Fred Jackson, but how often can he rely on random RBs for quality production?  Gabs's team has been the epitome of streaky and unpredictable this year, but I think he'll still be a threat come playoffs.

5. Rainbow Warriors (4-6) [5]

Jeff almost survived this week without his star QB (he hilariously started Ryan Tannehill, who was outscored by probably 99% of all fantasy players last week, including the ghost of Chris Weinke).  But I think that speaks to the massive amount of potential his team has if his star players all show up come playoff time.  That's a big if, and that's putting a lot of burden on 2 or 3 players, but it's more than some of us can hope for.

6. RelientK (4-6) [4]

Laura's team hit a rough patch this week, taking a big step backwards with the loss.  The road to the playoffs are looking a lot tougher for her from here on out.  However, it's still possible - Gabs's team has been unpredictable, Aaron's team has failed to show up the past 3 weeks, and she might have the points needed to beat out Gabs, David Li, Eric, and me, if that's what it comes down to.

7. MUSCLE Hamster (3-7) [8]

Some (Eric) would argue that Doug Martin and co. should be ranked higher.  I'd say if you were to rank our league based only on the past two weeks, then hands down, Eric's team would be #1.  Unfortunately, these power rankings are based on the entire season's performance, which puts Eric's team at a slight handicap because of the first... 8 games of the season.  So what the crap happened in the past two weeks that hadn't happened prior to that?  Uh.. maybe all his players decided to show up and play to their potential?  It's amazing what can happen when they do that.  Eric's making a serious (and surprising) run for the playoffs, people - watch out.


8. Terrific Tortoises (5-5) [7]

David's getting the numbers he needs from Jimmy Graham and CJ2K, but his QB situation is killing him, and he doesn't have much time left to correct things.  What once was a brighter future may just be a reflection of last year's Tortoises.  :(

9. odoyle RULES (4-6) [9]

Ladies and gentlemen, that is what we call a one-week wonder.  Thank you and goodnight.

10. Kardashian Esk. Bros (2-8) [10]

She got a surprising boost from the players she acquired from David.  Not so much from Luke's players.  If it's any consolation to her, she would have beaten half of the teams in our league this week.

Predictions: Week 10

Eric not only had an impressive fantasy performance last week, but he went (5-0) in his predictions.  Congrats to the newly-named MUSCLE Hamsters.

	Tim	Luke	Eric
Last week's record	(4-1)	(0-0)	(5-0)
Overall record	(30-15)	(8-7)	(27-18)
Percentage	0.67	0.53	0.60

odoyle RULES v. Kardashian Esk. Bros
I'll probably end up jinxing it for myself, but I'm hoping Justina's team will continue their downward spiral to fantasy oblivion and I'll finally get my first win in a while to keep me somewhat relevant for the playoffs.  We both have favorable matchups here and there, but I think my team will play better this week.  I'm not losing hope!
Winner: odoyle RULES

MUSCLE Hamster v. Terrific Tortoises
Talk about two teams that have been on the rise.  David's team has been on a more long-term rise, while Eric's team received a shot in the arm of fantasy crack last week - enough to compel him to change his name and logo.  Remember the last team that changed their name to highlight their superstar player(s)?  I'm sure Eric is hoping that doesn't happen again.  Anyways, for this week - both have tough matchups, but I think Eric's team will continue to ride his surprise high for at least another week - at least enough to win the game.
Winner: MUSCLE Hamster

Rainbow Warriors v. Spider Pig
You know what it means when Jeff doesn't have Aaron Rodgers on board, right?  Easy win for Luke.
Winner: Spider Pig

The Debbinator v. RelientK
Intriguing matchup here.  Laura's team has been on a win streak, but David's team has been quietly maintaining a top ranking in our league.  Laura has a better matchup at QB, but David's got a slight upper hand at WR.  I think Laura's RBs will do more damage, and TE/K/DEF is about even.  It'll be a close one, but I'm liking Laura to continue her streak.
Winner: RelientK

THE Pain Train v. choubacca
Gabs has a better QB matchup, and arguably a better WR matchup, but his RBs will most likely fall flat against Aaron's.  However, Gabs's team has been doing weird things, and I can't rely on him to pull out what ought to be a victory for him.  This pick is based more on gut, less on logic.
Winner: choubacca

WEEK 10!!! (back to my winning ways.. for now) AND SINCE I WON, I'M FEELING A LITTLE BETTER SO THIS WEEK'S ANALYSIS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE IN DEPTH :D


MUSCLE Hamster vs Terrific Tortoises
need i say anymore? my new team name says it all. yes, i agree w/ Tim that the possibility of D-Mart scoring 50 points again probably won't happen but if he can score a consistent 20-25 for me, i'll take it. starting Freeman & V-Jax also helped/will continue to help me out. however, i would like to point out that the Seahawks are giving Russell more freedom in the passing game now. (he also scored MORE points than Freeman last week) if Russell keeps performing like he did, i just might change my name back.. we'll have to see but for this week, i feel like i can only build on my momentum and squeak out another win. David's team is under performing but he still does have a few bright spots. it'll be close but i'm gonna give myself another win

odoyle RULES vs Kardashian Esk. Bros
like i said before, Chubs made some major trades over the past week and i think it ultimately hurts her team.. i guess she doesn't care that much (esp since she's getting a free meal out of it) but the worst part about her trade? she had to change her team name YET AGAIN, to something else which i have absolutely NO idea what she is referring to, maybe she watches too much reality tv and i don't keep up w/ that stuff. (if you could enlighten me and others who may not know what your name means, i would appreciate it) anyways...... she currently has an open WR slot as i'm writing this and yes, Brady is an upgrade from Cam for the moment but the Pats are playing the Bills, which will probably mean blow out and Brady will shut it down sooner rather than later, while on the flip side, Matty Ice is going to be in a shoot out against the Saints and D-Brees. it also bodes well for Tim that 2 of his 3 WR's are Roddy and Colston (in that shoot out game) Timmy Chang picks up another win this week and pushes Chub's sorry team (yes it's worse than mine) further down in the standings.. if that's at all possible
 
Rainbow Warriors vs Spider Pig
Jeff's team is hurtin, mainly because Rodgers is on 'bye' this week and he scores half of his team's weekly output (maybe i'm exaggerating a tad, but it sure seems that way) a bright spot is All-Day AP.. my goodness, did this guy really tear his ACL less than a year ago? he's out there cutting and running around like he's 21 again. super scary.. Jeff's WR's are super weak imo and they will come back to haunt him this week with Rodgers out. Luke's team was 2nd highest scoring team last week and would've demolished anyone else last week, i guess he got unlucky by playing me but i don't care. :D a big part of his scoring each week has been that ridiculous Bears D.. you can almost bank on a defensive TD each week. Manning has been great and I guess he got rid of Brady for a major upgrade in the Skittles monster. his WR's are hit and miss each week which is risky but he's still atop the standings so it doesn't matter for now. i'll give Luke the win this week, mainly because i really enjoyed his last post w/ the .gifs i LOL'd
 
The Debbinator vs RelientK
i have a feeling this is gonna be the closest match up in the week or the biggest blow out. both teams have favorable match ups. the 2 that stand out to me are obviously D-Brees for David's team as they play Matty Ice and the Falcons and Ray Rice for Laura. Rice is facing the Raiders D (NEED I REMIND YOU THAT JUST GOT GASHED FOR 250 RUSHING YDS BY MY MUSCLE HAMSTER) so what makes you think they can stop Rice? the deciding factor may be Marshall this week. it doesn't matter if it's 1 person covering him, or if he has an army of oompa loompas covering him, Cutler will throw it to him. and he's been KILLING it as a WR. I have him in my other league and you get PPR points there, man, i love it. I give the slight edge to Laura this week as she continues her winning ways and gets a 5 game win streak going and gets back to .500 after starting out the season 0-5. (this gives me hope also!!)
 
THE Pain Train vs choubacca 
RGIII on 'bye' and Aaron is forced to play Palmer, not a terrible pick up/fill in this week but def not one to have high hopes on. he picked up Amendola back up off IR and inserts him but i think they'll limit his snap count and Cruz and the Giants offense has been non existent it seems like the past 2 weeks.. Foster is still a stud in that zone blocking scheme but they face a stingy Bears D which has just been playing at an absurd level. limit your expectations for him this week Aaron. Turner prob won't carry the rock more than 10-12 times w/ the shoot out on hand Sunday night. Gabs is in trouble as run DMC has an ankle sprain so he's forced to employ both Bills RB's once more, which will hurt him. but he has Julio Jones and Stafford is starting to play better lately (i just hope he throws more TD's to Megatron) i would be a happy camper. sorry Aaron, Gabs stamps another W in his record this week.