Saturday, October 3, 2015

Jeff's Week 4 Power Rankings (Part 2)

Honestly, ranking the "bottom dwellers" in this league was a crapshoot. None of the teams jumped out at me as a dark horse candidate. They all have major problems that need fixing. We'll get some more clarity in the next week or so.

7) ThisTimeNextWeek 3-1 (2-1)
I'm going to give Tim the #7 spot right now based on his record, but I could easily see him dropping a few spots over the next couple of weeks.

What I like:
a) Cam "Superman" Newton. With the lack of talent around him, Cam is literally putting the Panthers on his back and dragging them to the finish line every Sunday afternoon. This is approach has worked for Tim so far, but I wonder if it will last. Look who the Panthers have played so far: Jax, Hou, and NO. This week it's TB. That's a pretty soft schedule. After a bye in Week 5, Cam plays Seattle in Week 6 and Philly in Week 7. Can Tim weather the Week 5 bye? (Hello Eli!) And then get enough points out of Cam in Weeks 6 and 7?


b) Greg Olsen. Big performance in Week 3. Let's see if he keeps it up in Week 4, or if defenses realize he's the only player on the Panthers offense worth covering.

What I don't like:
a) RBs. Melvin Gordon is getting more carries than Woodhead right now but has no TDs to show for it. Until he proves that he can score more points, he's nothing more than a middle of the road RB #2. After a breakout performance in Week 1, Hyde has come back down to earth. It's not him though. It's his team. Kaep can't throw, so teams are loading the box. The gameplan for beating the 49ers is simple. Stop Hyde, win the game. And Rawls? He's a long shot. Beastmode will eventually return.

b) Tim's dependence on the Panthers. At the moment, Tim's two best players are arguably Cam and Olsen. That's worrisome because the Panthers don't have an elite offense. A weak performance from Cam means a weak performance from Olsen, which means an L for Tim.

c) Eli. I don't understand how he has two Super Bowl rings.

What I'm not sure about:
a) WRs. Tim's three starting WRs are Maclin, A. Robinson, and Benjamin. Maclin blew up last week but will continue to be limited by the weak arm of Alex Smith and the conservative offense of KC. I do think that KC will find more ways to work Mac into its game plan though. He's too talented not to be more involved. Robinson seems to be more of a flash in the pan than a consistent starter. And Travis Benjamin is talented but on a weak Cleveland team. Tim's best WR may just be Martavis Bryant, but he's now got the erratic Vick feeding him the ball.

8) Rainbow Warriorz (1-2)
I've got the top QB in the game and probably the best duo of RBs in Forte and Murray. James Jones has been revelation. The question remains though if these four players can score enough each week to offset the other deficiencies in my team. Gates should help out when he comes back in Week 5.

What I like:
a) Aaron Rodgers. Has anyone watched Rodgers play this year? He's so calm and collected. Never seems stressed either. And that hard count! I've never seen a QB fool so many defensive ends like that. It's like clock work. Rodgers catches a guy offsides with the hard count, gets a free play, and then bombs it to James Jones for a TD. Works every time. I'm patting myself on the back for getting this one right.

b) My RBs. In my opinion, I have the best RB duo in our league. Latavius Murray is the clear #1 back in Oakland and Forte has been average/solid. I expect Forte to return to form once Cutler comes back. As for my other two RBs, I'm pretty happy with them. Karlos Williams is the only RB in the NFL to score a TD in every single game this season. He's also expected to get the start in place of the injured McCoy this week. Finally, David Johnson is looking like the most talented back in the Arizona backfield. The only person holding him back right now is Bruce Arians. Some crap about "not giving rookies too much responsibility". Mumbo jumbo. But the touches he does get...crazy. He's got like 4.3 speed.

c) James Jones. Although he doesn't get a boatload of targets, Rodgers trusts him in the end zone. I can count on him to get a TD or two every week.

d) Josh Brown. He's the second highest scoring kicker through three weeks. It's a small win though. Productive kickers are a dime a dozen.

What I don't like:
a) My draft strategy. My first three draft picks went well--Forte, Murray, and Rodgers. Very happy with these picks. The rest of my picks? Not so much. Somehow my brain turned off. I went into super conservative mode and ended the draft with $20 left over. In hindsight, I should have gone after a big name WR rather than counting on players like Nelson Agholor and Chris Johnson to pull through for me.

b) Golden Tate has been oh so disappointing. I'm starting Tedd Ginn as my WR #3. Clearly, I'm desperate.

c). TE. Gates needs to come back asap.

d) Def. I can't seem to find myself a reliable defense yet. Should've used one of my extra $20 to bid on a better defense in the draft. Am I right? Or am I right?

What I'm not sure about:
a) Stevie Johnson. He doesn't get a lot of targets in SD's offense but he makes the most out of what he gets. He's definitely an overachiever, and I'm a little concerned that it's not going to be sustainable.

9) TOUCHDOWN MACHINE (1-2)
After my come from behind victory against Gabs in Week 3, I was like:

After his loss in Week 3, Gabs was like:

Ya just can't beat Aaron Rodgers.

On a more serious note, I think Gabs' team is going start climbing the rankings over the next couple of weeks. Tyrod will contribute a good 25+ points a game with the way he's been playing. Throw in the explosive Cobb, a rejuvenated Jimmy Graham, and a injury-free Eddie Lacy, and it sounds like Gabs' gots himself a team here. Freeman is good for at least another week. If Freeman becomes the full time starter in Atlanta, watch out peoples. Gabs team will be dangerous.

What I like:
a) Randall Cobb. Very dependable. 3 TDs last week. He'll keep chugging along all season long.

b) Devonta Freeman. Wow, he blew up in Week 3. He may not be a long term option with Coleman expected to return at some point, but he will be good for another week or two.

c) Jimmy Graham. How you going to trade for the second best TE in the game and not throw him the ball?

It looks like the Seahawks are in the process of fixing this.

d) Tyrod Taylor. I'm kind of surprised Tyrod Taylor lasted on the waiver wire that long. GREAT pick up Gabs. He's a stat sheet stuffer.

What I don't like:
a) Davante Adams: He's starting to look more and more like a bust. Injuries notwithstanding, it doesn't seem like Rodgers and Adams are on the same page. The emergence of James Jones has also diminished his value.

b) Eddie Lacy. He's been slowed some by his ankle injury, but I think he will eventually rebound. Aaron Rodgers can't keep slinging the ball every week to the tune of 5 TDs. Or can he??? Either way there should be plenty of points to go around in the Packers offense.

c) Ameer Abdullah. There's no doubt that he's talented. As one coach put it, he's got "Barry Sanders-like" speed. But he's stuck in a timeshare with Bell and Riddick and running behind a weak O-line. He does make the most of his touches though.

d) Oakland Def. I understand that this is a matchup play, but there's got to a better defense out there than this.

e) Kaepernick. I'm surprised he's still on your roster Gabs.

f) Anquan Boldin. Awful Kaep = Awful Boldin.

10) PeppaPig (1-2)
Luke asked me to use more gifs in my posts. Here you go. =)

After three weeks, here's what I think of Luke's team:

After three weeks, here's what Luke thinks of his team:

Can you blame him? His RBs are struggling.

Tevin Coleman be like:

Chris Ivory has stopped looking like this:

And more like this:

Here's Alfred Morris in a timeshare:

It's gotten so bad, Luke is starting James Starks now.

And without Big Ben, Antonio Brown be like:

But at least Mike Evan is back!

And as long as this:

And this:


And this keeps happening:


Luke has a chance right?

Right????

It's ok Luke. There's always next season!

11) It's a me! Mariota! (1-2)
In the past, David Lin has shown a penchant for drafting all the best players from a single high performing team. Remember 5-6 years ago when he had all the best Eagles players on his team--McNabb, T.O., and McCoy? Or was it Westbrook? That was a killer FF combination that propelled him to the regular season championship if I remember correctly.

This year David Lin has employed the same strategy with the Broncos. He currently has 5 on his roster--Peyton Manning, CJ Anderson, Ronnie Hillman, Brandon McManus, and Denver's defense. The only problem is that the Broncos ain't doing so well right now. That's the danger in a strategy like this. David's team will live and die by the performance of a single team. If the Broncos do not return to their dominant ways, David will struggle.

I didn't learn much in business school, but I did take away one lesson from finance class: the more diverse one's stock portfolio, the less risk it has, so the stronger it will perform over time. (It's about that CML!) Same for FF. The more diverse your team, the better off you'll be in the long run. Or did I learn that from Wu Tang Financial? *Shrugs*

What I like:
a) OBJ is a must-have, so I can't knock David Lin for gunning after him. Has he played up to his lofty expectations through Week 3? I don't think so. ODJ's numbers last year were the exception not the norm. He's going to regress back to the mean.

What I don't like:
a) Peyton Manning. While he still possesses the sharpest mind in the game, his age is catching up to him. Read this great ESPN article about what he goes through after each game. It doesn't look good when an equipment manager has to help you take your shoes off after every game. The days of Peyton throwing 300+ yards and 3 TDs every week are over.

a) RB #1. Tough nuts for David. CJ Anderson entered the season with a lot of hype around him. He seemed like a safe pick-up based on last years numbers, and the Denver coaching staff said it was committed to pounding the ball this year to take some pressure off of Peyton. That being said, CJ hasn't lived up the hype. The Broncos offense is struggling behind a hodge podge O-line and weak armed Peyton.

c) Dez Bryant is injured and not expected to come back until at least Week 7. But even if he comes back, who' s going to get the ball to him? Weeden? Maybe Cassell? Romo won't be back until Week 11, but by then, the Dallas may be more interested in preserving its star players, especially if they are already out of playoff contention.

d) RB #2. David spent so much money on acquiring OBJ, Dez, Peyton, and CJ that he neglected to shore up his RB #2 spot. All the flyers he took for his RB#2 did not pan out, so he now has to start... Woodhead.

12) David's Team (1-2)
Poor David. Lynch and Forsett were solid pick-ups and worth taking a shot on. Lynch was a top 5 RB last season, and after picking up Forsett last season, I rode him all the way to the regular season championship. For a team that's so heavily reliant on just two RBs, David can't afford not get elite production from them. Until Lynch and Forsett put up points on a reliable basis, David's team is going to be in for a world of hurt.

What I Like:
a) Amari Cooper. Great sleeper pick. According to opposing CBs, Cooper is playing less like a rookie and more like a top vet. Carr clearly trusts him and targets him a lot.

b) Tannehill. Through three weeks, he is #10 in scoring for QBs. That's decent given his draft value ($17), but I doubt he will take the "extra step forward" Miami is expecting him to make. He may just be an average play all season.

c) Delanie Walker. David beat me to the punch on Walker. I was going to pick him up this week but thought no one would pick up a player on his bye week. He should continue to play well with Mariota under center.

d) Brandon LaFell. David is banking on LaFell cashing in on a red hot Patriots offense when he returns in Week 7. If David falls out of playoff contention early, will the wait have been worth it???

What I Don't Like:
a) Forsett. After three trying weeks, Forsett finally had a good week against the Steelers (15 points). Unfortunately though, this may be his upper limit. He will never be a RB #1 but could return to becoming a great RB #2 play with time. Too bad Taliaferro keeps stealing all of his goal line carries.

b) Lynch. The Seahawks offense ain't working. Lynch is getting stuffed repeatedly and also battling injuries. I'm confident Beastmode will eventually return, but until then David Li's team is going to suffer. Yeldon ain't cutting it either.

c) Martellus Bennett. Let's hope Cutler comes back sooner rather than later. The Bears don't trust Clausen to throw the ball. Plus, the primary focal point of the Bears' offense this season has been Forte.

d) Stafford. As one commentator put it, Stafford is playing like the "southern version of Eli Manning". I agree.

e) David Li's draft strategy. After going all in on Lynch ($67) and Forsett ($35), he turned ultra conservative. Sure, he spent a lot of money on his RBs, but I still think he had plenty of money leftover to go after a high priced QB/WR.

What I'm not sure about:
a) Percy Harvin. David's #2 WR had a solid Week 1, meh Week 2, and average Week 3. I'm not convinced that he's going to be the explosive player he once was. Plus, he's a trouble maker in the locker room and gets injured a lot.

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