Beginning of Week 4 Thoughts

Here are some other random thoughts bouncing around in my head as Week 4 kicks off. Enjoy!

1) How the tides have turned. After three weeks, the four worst teams last year in terms of final record (Andrew, Aaron, Gabs and Tim in that order) are now ranked #1, #3, #10, and #5 respectively. I expect Gabs' team to climb the rankings some with the addition of Tyrod Taylor. The top teams from last season in terms of final record (Jeff, Duke, Abraham, and David Lin) are now ranked #9, #8, #2, #11 respectively. Kudos to Abraham for bucking the trend.

2) There's a saying in pro football that NFL stands for "Not for Long"--a testament to how dangerous football is. Every week another star player goes down. I was reading an article the other day that said that the NFL is on pace to have more injuries this year than any other previous season. First it was Bryant, then Romo and Brees, and now Big Ben. At this rate, I wonder what the NFL is going to look like by Week 8. What does this mean for your team??? In the wise words of Steve Smith, "ice up" folks and stock up on your bench. It's going to be a long season.

3) Is it just me or are we all struggling to find a good RB these days? And by "good" I mean a RB you can count on to put up 10+ points week in and week out. How many of them are out there??? Through three weeks, I only see a handful: AP, Charles, Le'veon Bell, Latavius Murray, Lacy (maybe), McCoy (maybe), Randle (maybe), Forte (maybe), Ingram (maybe), and Foster (when he comes back). As more and more teams turn into throw first offenses + devalue RBs on draft day + transition to RB-as-committee approaches, finding a good RB is becoming increasingly difficult. What does this tell me? Better get yourself a bonafide #1 RB in the draft. They are rare and well worth the money. It's almost impossible to win in FF without one good RB.

4) Continuing on this point, who are arguably the best RBs in the league right now? AP, Charles, and Bell. Who owns them? Andrew (AP), Abraham (Charles), and Aaron (Bell). What are they ranked? #1, #2, and #3.

5) Our league is QB crazy. I can't remember the last time we've had so many teams with 2 QBs on their rosters. By my count, 9 out of 12 teams have 2 QBs on their rosters. Only me (Aaron Rodgers), Eric (Russell Wilson), and Andrew (Philip Rivers) don't. Why all the QB hoarding? First of all, I think a lot of it has to do with injuries. Three star QBs have gone down in three weeks (Romo, Brees, Big Ben). Secondly, some normally solid QBs are shaky right now (Luck and Peyton Manning) and owners need insurance. Finally, some QBs are unexpectedly doing well (Derek Carr, Carson Palmer, Marcus Mariota, and Tyrod Taylor). 

6) Through Week 3, the top 5 QBs in terms of scoring are as follows: 

It make sense to see Rodgers and Brady here, but Dalton, Palmer, and Taylor? That's surprising.

7) I'm interested to see how the new IR rules affect our league. In the past, when a star player was injured, you just declared them "IR" and dropped them off on the waiver wire. Now that we are required to save roster spots for injured players I think it changes owners' strategies a bit. When Justina couldn't drop LeFell on IR, she decided to cut him. In her mind, waiting for him until Week 7 just wasn't worth it. Will Abraham leave Romo on the bench until his expected return in Week 11? Maybe. Maybe not. If Dallas is out of playoff contention by say Week 9 and Dalton is playing well enough, he may decide to drop Romo earlier than that.

8) I'm starting to rethink my draft strategy for picking defenses. The top four defenses this year are as follows:

Defense	Week 1 Pts	Week 2 Pts	Week 3 Pts	Draft Value
Denver	16	22	16	Waiver Wire
Arizona	5	18	28	$1
Seattle	19	4	18	$5
New York Jets	17	14	3	$1

Now let's compare DEF scoring to RB scoring... The black lines indicate RBs that were on the waiver wire at the time but are now owned.

Week 1: If Seattle, NY Jets, and Denver were RBs, they all would've ranked in the top 10 in scoring. To put things in perspective, they turned in better performances than AP, Lacy, and Lynch.

Week 2: If Denver and Arizona were RBs, they would've ranked in the top 5 in scoring. That's more points than AP, Lacy, and Lynch. The NY Jets would've made the top 10.

Week 3: Arizona would've been the third highest scoring RB with 28 points. That's more points than AP, Jamal Charles, and Le'Veon Bell-- the three most talented backs in the NFL.

In fact, through three weeks Denver (waiver wire pick up) and Arizona ($1) have more points than every other RB in the league not named Charles. Seattle's ($5) scoring would place it in the top 10 RBs. That's even crazier to think about if you filter out one-hit-wonders like DeAngelo Williams and Devonta Freeman.

What does this tell me? We should be spending more draft money on top defenses.