Predictions: Week 8

There's a lot of parity between spots 4-10 right now. That being said, I'm predicting no upsets this week.

Overall Predictions Record (4-2)

GAME OF THE WEEK:

1) Unicorn Queen (4-3) vs. Di Yi (5-2)

QB: I think Dalton and Cam are both going to score in bunches this week. Cam will get a rushing TD, and Dalton will do all his damage in the air. Dalton is still the top QB in FF. Slight edge to Abraham.

Advantage: Di Yi

WR: Tim needs all of his WRs to play well this week in order for him to pull off the upset, and I don't see that happening. Benjamin is probably going to be smothered by Patrick Peterson. Martavis will be fine. And Maclin is coming off a concussion. As for Abraham, his WRs are just too strong. Green is going to hook up with Dalton for a TD this week. Jeffrey is going to have another monster game. And Sanders is in a groove with Peyton right now.

Advantage: Di Yi

RB: Tim is going to need Miller to have a huge week to stand a chance against Abraham. Will he score enough? That's the question. I'm not expecting another 35 points from Lamar, but something in the range of 17-20 points. Hyde is going up against a stout St. Louis DEF, so I am expecting 5 or less points. Can Johnson and Hillman match Miller in output? I think so.

Advantage: Di Yi

TE: Olsen is still a little too boom or bust for me, but I think this week he will break out. Witten faces Seattle DEF with Cassell now delivering him the ball.

Advantage: Unicorn Queen

K/DEF: Gostkowski over Gano. He's an automatic 10 per week. I don't see Minn DEF or Arizona DEF playing that much better than the other, but I'm going to give the slight edge here to Arizona.

Advantage: Di Yi

Winner: Di Yi

The only way I see Tim's team winning is if Miller goes off again for 30 points. I don't think that's going to happen.

REST OF THE PACK:

2) HAMAJANG (1-6) vs. The Walking Dez (4-3)
Yahoo favors me over David Lin, but I'm not convinced.

QB: Rodgers faces a very tough defense in Denver at Mile High Stadium. Two TDs from Rodgers would be a good day. Cutler faces a pretty tough matchup against Minn.

Advantage: Tie

WR: I think OBJ is in for a big game this week against NO DEF. Moncrief should fare well even against a strong Carolina secondary. Nate Washington has a savory matchup against TEN DEF. I can't see Diggs, Ginn, and James Jones outplaying David Lin's WRs. Major edge to David Lin. 

Advantage: The Walking Dez

RB: Murray and Forte both have tough matchups against stout run defenses. Duke Johnson also faces a tough matchup against Arizona. Woodhead gets a soft Baltimore DEF, but will he get the touches? Eh, I like me a bit more but only slightly.

Advantage: HAMAJANG

TE: Barnidge is the #2 TE in the game right now.

Advantage: HAMAJANG

K/DEF: David Lin's team dominates at special teams, and it's not even close. I'm not expecting as much production against a high powered GB offense, but they will still be respectable.

Advantage: The Walking Dez

Winner: The Walking Dez
If there's going to be an upset this week, it will be me. However, I think David Lin's WRs + special teams will score enough to give him the W.

3) David's Team (4-3) vs. Spider Pig (1-6)

Yahoo has Luke over David Li. I'm not so sure.

QB: Tanehill will regress towards the mean this week against NE. I'm expecting more average production from him. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 250 yards and 2 TDs. Ryan gets a very weak TB DEF but has played poorly as of late. I like Ryan here.

Advantage: Spider Pig

WR: Luke has the clear advantage here at WR. Brown has Big Ben back. Mike Evans faces a soft ATL DEF. And Demaryius is getting targets just not TDs. Meanwhile, Cooper is visiting Revis Island. A good showing from LaFell and Snead would be 8 points each.

Advantage: Spider Pig

RB: Forsett has a great matchup this week against SD. I think he will get 15+ points. Lynch is back to his Beastmode ways. Meanwhile, Ivory is hobbled, and Blue is in a RB-by-committee attack. Clear advantage to David Li.

Advantage: David's Team

TE: Bennett is getting major targets but not yards. Kelce is good for 7-8 points a week. 

Advantage: David's Team

K/DEF: I like St. Louis DEF against SF like...a lot. Poor Kaep is going to struggle again this week. Boswell will also get his points with Big Ben back. 

Advantage: David's Team

Winner: David's Team
David's RBs and special teams neutralize Luke's superior advantage at WR.

4) I Don't Gronk W/ You (3-4) vs. I Called Game (2-5)

Assuming that Duke makes the necessary switches, then he's got a chance against Justina this week.

QB: You can't not pick Brady here. Luckily for Justina though, I don't think the drop off between Brady and Big Ben/Stafford is that steep this week. Slight advantage to Duke.

Advantage: I Called Game

WR: If Duke plays John Brown this week, then he's got a chance. Megatron is capable of matching Hop in production. Same goes for Brown vs. Landry. It's a toss up between Wright and Crabtree, the latter of whom faces the NY Jets secondary. This one's close, but I think Hop is going to have a monster week. Wright should do well against Houston too. Edge to Justina.

Advantage: I Don't Gronk W/ You

RB: If Duke plays Stewart this week, then it'll be enough to push him over the top. The combination of Stewart + Blount/Hill should be enough to beat Ingram + Randle/Crowell. I'm not expecting more than 2-3 points from Randle/Crowell.

Advantage: I Called Game

TE: Gronk.

Advantage: I Don't Gronk W/ You.

K/DEF: Nothing jumps out at me here. Assuming that Duke gets a sub for Sturgis this week, then I think this matchup is a toss up.

Advantage: Tie

Winner: I Don't Gronk W/ You
I don't think Duke has enough to pull off the upset this week.

5) Gurley Man (6-1) vs. Aaron Chou's Team (4-3)

QB: Rivers is going to outplay Luck here. Not by a lot but enough. I'm expecting 30+ from Rivers and closer to 22-25+ from Luck.

Advantage: Gurley Man

WR: I like all the matchups here for both teams. Someone on Andrew's team will get a TD this week. As for Aaron, Decker pretty much always gets a TD. Steve Smith is in store for a good week too against SD. Man, it's close. Really close.

Advantage: Gurley Man

RB: This is where Andrew gains separation from Aaron. Gurley + AP > Bell + Lewis. Lewis is injured and may not even be a factor in NE's game plan.

Advantage: Gurley Man

TE: Reed and Thomas are on bye this week, so Andrew is going with Watson. Aaron is guaranteed 0 points right now with Clay.

Advantage: Gurley Man

K/DEF: I like Aaron here more. Seattle DEF will score more FF points than an average NE DEF. Walsh and Folk will both get around the same amount of points hree.

Advantage: Aaron Chou's Team

Winner: Gurley Man
Andrew wins all the close matchups. Plus, his RB game is too strong.

6) TOUCHDOWN MACHINE (3-4) vs. JULIOthinkyouare?! (5-2)
If Gabs starts McFadden, he's got a shot at taking down Eric.

QB: Fitzpatrick has a great matchup against Oakland this week. I don't trust Russell right now.

Advantage: TOUCHDOWN MACHINE

WR: Eric has the clear advantage here. Even if Davante lays a goose egg, Julio + Hilton should be enough to counter anything Randle, Austin, and Cobb put up.

Advantage: JULIOthinkyouare?!

RB: Freeman is going to keep rolling. I'm predicting 20 points from him. Assuming Gabs starts McFadden over Lacy this week, then Gabs could win the match up here. Eric has decided to go with West and Martin. Both are solid plays this week. Slight edge to Gabs if McFadden gets the start.

Advantage: TOUCHDOWN MACHINE

TE: Gabs needs a good week from Graham if he's going to pull off the upset. That's difficult to figure out, but I think he'll get it. Eifert is good for at least 10 points against the Steelers.

Advantage: TOUCHDOWN MACHINE

K/DEF: Carolina DEF should get takeaways against Indy this week. That's the difference at special teams.

Advantage: JULIOthinkyouare?!

Winner: JULIOthinkyouare?!
Eric's WRs win it for him.

Jeff's Week 8 Power Rankings

Pardon the one week hiatus, but the power rankings are back!

1) Gurley Man (6-1)

Even though Andrew picked up his first L last week, I see no reason to move him down. Rivers is playing at super high level. (He now leads the NFL in passing yards, and it's not even close. The difference between Rivers and the next closest QB--Tom Brady--is a whopping 400 yards). Gurley, AP, and Gio are still going strong. Fitz has lost some steam now with the emergence of John Brown and Floyd, but luckily for Andrew, he's still got a solid trio in Edelman, Marshall, and Allen. I doubt they will all go scoreless again like they did last week. Throw in Jordan Reed, who is back from injury, and GB DEF, which is back from bye, and Andrew still has the team to beat.

2) JULIOdoyouthinkyouare?! (5-2)

With a win against Abraham last week, Eric solidifies his position as the second best team in our league, and it's easy to see why. Hilton and Julio are playing like topflight WRs. He's got a solid stable of RBs in Martin, Gore, Shady, and C. West. (Add in Ryan Matthews and that's arguably five RBs who could hit double digits on a weekly basis). And Carolina/Philly defenses keep rolling. Carolina has looked especially strong lately.

The only gripe I have about Eric's team is Russell Wilson, who is currently on the struggle bus. In my opinion, he will never be an elite FF QB, but he is capable of putting up better numbers than he did the past couple of weeks.

3) Di Yi (5-2)

Abraham mailed it in last week, choosing to leave A. Jeffrey in his starting lineup rather than drop one of his players. Not a move I can argue with. With so many key players (Dalton, Jeffrey, and Green) on bye and a bench stocked full of players worth keeping, Abraham decided to take a mulligan and still almost came away with the win. That speaks to the strength of his team. He's still got a question mark at the RB#2 spot, but the rest of his team easily makes up for this one deficiency. Abraham will continue to be a formidable opponent.

4) Unicorn Queen (4-3)

Over the past three weeks, Tim's team has proven its mettle, breaking 100+ points in each of its outing. That's because a lot of things are going right for him. Newton has fared well enough through the rougher patch of Carolina's schedule. Lamar Miller has turned into a touchdown machine thanks to a renewed focus in Miami in on running the ball. And Tim's WRs are going bananas right now. A. Robinson has established himself as a top 5 WR. T. Benjamin is #7 in FF scoring for WR. And M. Bryant has picked up where he left off last year. I only expect him to play even better with Big Ben returning this week. I'm still not crazy about Tim's defense (Washington) and Olsen/Hyde are still a little too boom-or-bust for my liking, but otherwise, Tim's got a playoff-worthy team. It looks like the drought may end this year!

5) Aaron Chou's Team (4-3)

If you google "Aaron Chou", this is one of the images that shows up. Hah!

As I predicted, Aaron's team has bounced back the past two weeks. Andrew Luck, while not playing well in real life, is putting up elite numbers as a FF QB. 30+ points in the last two games. Aaron's WRs are also playing at a high level right now. Steve Smith has been playing his heart out in Baltimore. Decker puts up 9-10 points without fail. And between Matthews and Floyd, Aaron's got two good options at WR #3. Matthews is capitalizing on the resurgence of the Dolphins' offense. He doesn't get a lot of looks, but he makes the most of his opportunities. And Floyd is stealing more and more looks away from Fitz. The disappearance of D. Lewis from NE's gameplan has to sting a little, but luckily for Aaron, DeMarco Murray has reemerged to the point that he's a decent play at the RB#2 spot. In addition to Bell and Seattle DEF, Aaron's still got himself a solid team.

6) David's Team (4-3)

David Li's team blew up last week thanks in large part to the one-two punch of his RBs, the terrific play of Tanehill and St. Louis DEF, the steady play of Cooper, and an unexpected contribution from Ebron. There's a lot to like about David Li's team right now, but the question remains...Will David Li's players continue to play like they did last week (136 points total)? Or will they play more like they did in Week 6 (84 points total)? 

I'm going to argue the former. Forsett, Marshawn, Cooper, and St. Louis DEF will continue holding down the fort. LaFell represents a clear upgrade over Mike Wallace in my book. (He got 8 targets in his return from the PUP list). And if not, David Li's got the underrated Marvin Jones waiting in the wings. (He may be worth starting over Snead this week). Boswell will also benefit tremendously with Big Ben healthy again.

7) I Don't Gronk W/ You (3-4)

As evidenced by last week's performance, things are looking up for J's team. Hopkins and Gronk are still the top players at their positions. Landry has stepped it up the past two weeks. (I credit the coaching change in Miami + playing weak competition). Ingram has poured it on as of late. (He's now the #2 RB in FF scoring through Week 7). And to top it off, J now has two viable options at QB. Stafford has come up big the past two weeks. Plus, Big Ben is returning this week.

As a side note, I also find it funny that J keeps holding onto Brian Quick for no apparent reason. Maybe she's holding onto him for sentimental reasons.

8) The Walking Dez (4-3)

I was surprised to find this meme in Google's image bank, but it looks like great minds think alike!

I've got to credit David Lin with not giving up on his team. All the moves he's made--and there have been a lot of them--have his team headed in the right direction. He's ditched both Peyton and Mariota in favor of Blake Bortles, who has shown the a lot of growth between Year 1 and Year 2. He's picked up Moncrief, who is proving to be a solid WR#2. Add in the top DEF, a top 3 kicker in FF, Dez who is returning, and OBJ who is hitting the an easier patch of his schedule, and his team has some promise. 

I'm still a little iffy on David Lin's RBs. Sure, Woodhead had a great game last week, but we know that he's just as likely to put up 1-2 points on any given Sunday. Duke Johnson has been a more consistent play as of late, but I'm a little wary of pass-catching RBs. It's really hard to predict when they will do well and when they won't. Who knows though? David Lin has hit 100+ points the past two weeks due in large part to the strength of his special teams. He only needs enough points at RB to get by.

9) TOUCHDOWN MACHINE (3-4)

The last couple of weeks I've been high on Gabs' team, but now it looks his team is trending in the wrong direction. Freeman continues to be Freeman, but he appears to be the only player Gabs can legitimately rely on. Graham has been maddeningly inconsistent the last couple of weeks. Every time he has a breakout game, he follows it up with a dud. (I blame Seattle's coaches). Lacy and Cobb have disappointments thus far with the former losing carries to Stark and the latter suffering from some combination of the drops, a nagging shoulder injury, and an inability to get free on routes without Jordy Nelson stretching the field. To make matters worse, the Bills are on bye next week, which means Gabs has to wait another week for Tyrod to return. The good news for Gabs though is that Fitzpatrick is a sneakily good play, and McFadden is the de facto starter in Dallas next week. Will McFadden be able to follow up on his 20+ performance from last week? As long as he can stay healthy.

10) I Called Game (2-5)

The last two weeks Duke's team proved me right, playing up to its potential. But just like that, two unlucky breaks on Sunday (Arian Foster tearing his Achilles and Blount completely falling out of NE's gameplan), and Duke's team is now back on shaky ground. Fortunately though, not all is lost. Jonathan Stewart has played well the past two weeks against tough defenses in Seattle and Philly, which makes him worth inserting into the lineup, and Hill is returning from bye. Add in Brady, Megatron, Crabtree, and Sturgis and Duke still has the potential to take down anyone in our league.

I don't understand why Duke insists on playing the sputtering Jordan Matthews over the surging John Brown either.

11) Spider Pig (1-6)

Luke's team is looking more respectable these days. Even at 1-6, he still has a chance to move up the rankings. In the span of one week, Luke went from having one decent RB (Ivory) to three (Ivory, Alfred Blue now that Foster is injured, and James Starks who is out touching Lacy). A. Brown is also on the rise. With Landry Jones behind center last week, he put up 12 points. With Big Ben behind center this week, I expect Brown to return his normal production of 17-20+ points per game. Mike Evans also had a good week. Let's see if he can keep the momentum going against Atlanta this week. I'm still not crazy about Matt Ryan's play lately or the fact that Luke is starting Detroit DEF, but things are looking brighter for Luke.

12) HAMAJANG (1-6)

As we say in Hawai'i, my team is all hamajang. With Rodgers, Forte, and James Jones on bye last week, I watched as Justina put the hurt on my team. The lone bright spot in the loss though was the emergence of Stefon Diggs. Will the addition of Diggs be enough to push my team over the top? I'm skeptical. On paper, I've got all the pieces to make a run at the playoffs. Can it happen? Maybe.

Predictions: Week 6

I'm going to try and start doing predictions on a weekly basis, but now that the NFL has decided to schedule a game every Thursday night, I only have 2.5 days to get these up.

Overall Predictions Record (0-0)

GAME OF THE WEEK:

1) Di Yi (3-1) vs. TOUCHDOWN MACHINE (3-2)

We've got two heavyweights going against each other this week. Can the dynamic duo of Freeman and Tyrod help Gabs pull off the upset?

QB: Dalton is the top QB in FF right now, and Tyrod is banged up. Dalton also lit up a good Seahawks defense last week. I think he will do the same against a good Buffalo defense.

Advantage: Di Yi

WR: Abraham's depth at WR wins it. Cobb has struggled the last two weeks. Randle is having hammy issues. I still don't trust Boldin with Kaep.

Advantage: Di Yi

RB: Freeman is scoring enough for two RBs right now. He is going to explode against a soft Saints defense.

Advantage: TOUCHDOWN MACHINE

TE: Cameron is getting targets but has no results to show for it. Jimmy Graham is ghosting it in Seattle.

Advantage: Tie

K/DEF: Arizona DEF and Gostkowski are the best combination in the league, but Gabs has good matchups this week. Atlanta DEF plays New Orleans. Hauschka is playing a very strong Carolina DEF, which means less TDs, more field goals. It's close, but I'll give the slight edge to Abraham.

Advantage: Di Yi

Winner: Di Yi

Abraham's balanced team approach wins out.

REST OF THE PACK:

2) DeEz Nuts (2-3) vs. Unicorn King (5-0)

QB: Rivers faces a sneaky good defense in GB at GB. I don't think he's going to have a great game, but he will put up more points than Vick. 

Advantage: Unicorn King

WR: There's no way Hopkins scores enough points to beat Marshall, Fitz, and Edelman.

Advantage: Unicorn King

RB: AP + Gio all day.

Advantage: Unicorn King

TE: Gronk is the best TE in the game. New England also plays Indy this week. The gameplan will be simple: dump as many points on the Colts as possible. Plus, Julius Thomas is just coming back from injury. He'll need time to get back up to speed.

Advantage: DeEz Nuts

K/DEF: Buffalo faces an offensive juggernaut in Cincy, and Carpenter has struggled the last two weeks. On the other hand, GB DEF is peaking and facing a weak SD O-line. Bryant will capitalize on all of Freeman's TDs.

Advantage: Unicorn King

Winner: Unicorn King

Andrew moves to 6-0.

3) It's a me! Mariota! (2-3) vs. Aaron Chou's Team (3-2)

QB: This matchup is a lot closer than it looks. Mariota faces a weak Miami secondary, so I think he'll break 20 points this week. Palmer faces a weak Steelers defense that has come on as of late. Slight advantage Aaron.

Advantage: Aaron Chou's Team

WR: Hurns will keep rolling against Houston. OBJ is battling a minor hammy issue but played well last week. Moncrief gets Luck back. Meanwhile, Decker is good for another 10 points. Steve Smith has health issues but is facing a weak SF defense. And Matthews has cooled off after a hot start. If David is going to win this matchup, he's going to need solid play at WR. I think he'll get great production from at least 2 out of 3.

Advantage: It's a me! Mariota!

RB: Bell faces a tough Arizona defense this week but will still be the focal point of the Steeler's offense, and Lewis will be a top receiving option for Brady. CJ is still on the struggle bus. And Woodhead faces a stout GB DEF. Aaron has the clear advantage here.

Advantage: Aaron Chou's Team

TE: Tamme and Clay are about the same in my book.

Advantage: Tie

K/DEF: Denver's defense is obliterating opponents right now. McManus continues to benefit from an offense that constantly bogs down in the redzone. Seattle always plays Carolina games close. Think no TDs and a lot of fields goals. And Gould should benefit from a rejuvenated Chicago offense. This one's close, but I'll give the edge to David.

Advantage: It's a me! Mariota!

Winner: Aaron Chou's Team

It was close, but I think Aaron's RBs will do enough to mask his deficiencies at WR.

4) Spider Pig (1-4) vs. DanceDothe#JULIO (3-2)

QB: I like Matt Ryan in this one. Ryan faces a terrible NO DEF. Russell will find points hard to come by against Carolina DEF at full strength.

Advantage: Spider Pig

WR: Antonio Brown and Vick are not on the same page. Plus, the Steelers play the Cardinals this week, and they have one of the best secondaries in the league. Demaryius is getting the looks but not the TDs. And Pierre Garcon is visiting Revis Island. Meanwhile, Hilton is overdue for a TD. Julio has an excellent matchup against NO. And I assume Crowder will be blanketed by Cromartie, the Jets' other CB. Julio wins it for Eric.

Advantage: DanceDothe#JULIO

RB: Ivory is back but running against a strong Washington front. Vereen had a large role last week, but will it carry over to this week? He's also facing a fairly solid Philly DEF. I think the NE-IND game is going to be barnburner. Plenty of points to go around for guys like Gore. West is a question mark but faces a soft Minnesota run defense. Slight edge to Eric.

Advantage: DanceDothe#JULIO

TE: Kelce has come back down to earth since Week 1. Eifert is a monster.

Advantage: DanceDothe#JULIO

K/DEF: Arizona scores too many TDs, so all Catanzaro kicks are extra points. Detroit is playing a rising Chicago offense. I think Baltimore's offense will struggle some against a young but underrated SF DEF. This means Tucker is going to get some work. I don't think Philly DEF will explode this week, but I can see a solid 8-10 from them.

Advantage: DanceDothe#JULIO

Winner: DanceDothe#JULIO

Eric's team is too strong.

5) Unicorn Queen (3-2) vs. I Called Game (1-4)

QB: Cam is playing Seattle this week. The last couple of Seattle-Carolina games have all been low scoring, defensive affairs. Tom Brady is playing Indy. He's going to make them pay.

Advantage: I Called Game

WR: Two out of three of Tim's WRs have good matchups. Maclin should get the ball even more now that Charles is out. Robinson is playing a weak Houston secondary. I'm not expecting much out of T. Benjamin this week. He's playing Denver. Duke's WRs all have good matchups this week but continue to underperform. I will believe it when I see it.

Advantage: Unicorn Queen

RB: Foster is at full strength this week playing against a weak JAX DEF. Blount gets a weak IND DEF. Hyde gets a weak Bal DEF. And Miller gets a weak TEN DEF but has only averaged 7 carries the last two weeks.

Advantage: I Called Game

TE: Olsen may get yards this week but probably no TD. Daniels put up 0 points last week.

Advantage: Unicorn Queen

K/DEF: Who benefits from a low scoring, slug-it-out, defensive affair? Kickers. Gano is going to get points this week. I honestly don't know how NE DEF is going to play against Indy's offense, but I think Indy will still be able to move the ball some. On the other side of the ledger, I think the Jets are going to shut out Washington. And Sturgis will kick some field goals in a Philly offense that is turning things around.

Advantage: I Called Game

Winner: I Called Game

Duke for the upset.

6) HAMAJANG (1-4) vs. David's Team (2-3)

QB: Rodgers will outplay Flacco. Rodgers is at home too.

Advantage: HAMAJANG

WR: No Cooper for David, but Snead should be a nice sub. I'm not hot on Percy Harvin either, but Wallace has a tasty matchup against KC. The question is whether or not he will get the ball in a run-heavy Vikings offense. James Jones should produce against SD. At this point, I still have no idea who my other two WRs are. Slight edge to David.

Advantage: David's Team

RB: Forte leads the NFL in rushing, and he'll keep padding his stats against Detroit this week. David Johnson has been housing it with limited touches. Meanwhile, Forsett is surging, and Marshawn is back but playing against a stout Carolina DEF. I think it comes down to the RB #2 matchup. Can David Johnson outscore Marshawn?

Advantage: David's Team

TE: Gates came back with a vengeance last week. Bennett has been hit or miss.

Advantage: HAMAJANG

K/DEF: I think Josh Brown will outplay Mason Crosby. GB scores too many TDs. Cincy DEF gets a banged up Bills offense this week. I'm not crazy about Baltimore even if they are playing SF.

Advantage: HAMAJANG

Winner: HAMAJANG

This is going to be close, but I think Rodgers + Gates will give me the edge here.

Jeff's Week 6 Power Rankings

1) Unicorn King (5-0)

What a team. Even with AP and Marshall on bye, Andrew's team doesn't miss a beat. Gio continues to play like the true #1 in Cincy. Gurley is living up to his hype. Rivers keeps getting it done despite a weak O-line. Andrews WRs keep killing it. And Julius Thomas is returning this week to a surprisingly potent Jax offense. Andrew's got everything you could want in a FF team: balanced scoring, bench depth, and no injuries.

2) DanceDothe#JULIO (3-2)

We've got a newcomer at the #2 spot! Nothing against Abraham, but I think Eric's team has earned the right to move up. The key to Eric's success lies in the explosive potential of his players. Between Martin, Gore, Eifert, Julio, Tucker, and Philly/Carolina DEF, he can always count on 2-3 of these guys to score an insane amount of points. This allows him to weather subpar performances from Julio Jones and Russell Wilson every now and then. Charchandrick West was an intelligent pick up off the waiver wire and well worth the risk in my opinion. Might as well splurge if you have no other holes on your team to address. Plus, I can't imagine too many more RBs popping up on the waiver wire between now and the end of the season. With West in the fold and McCoy slated to return in 2-3 weeks, Eric has potentially 4 solid RBs he can play. On another note, I'm interested in seeing how Gore does now that Andrew Luck is back. Will he get the same amount of touches? Or will the Colts revert back to a pass-happy attack?

3) Di Yi (4-1)

When Romo went down with a broken clavicle, Abraham was able to do the FF impossible and find a better replacement at the QB position. Not only has Dalton exceeded expectations this season, but he has staked his claim as the top QB this season. Through five weeks, he leads our league in FF QB scoring. Can Abraham work the same magic with Charles out? Not likely. I don't envision Antonio Andrews playing on the same level as Charles, but luckily for Abraham I don't think he needs Charles-like production from Andrews to succeed. His team is so balanced from top to bottom that if he gets just enough points at the RB #2 position he'll be ok. Dalton, Sanders, Green, Chris Johnson (he's now the starter), Gostkowski, and Arizona DEF can carry the load. Same with Jeffrey whenever he finally decides to comes back. I also like the Charles Sims pickup. Very smart and sneaky. I had no idea he was playing that well the past three weeks (10+ points per week). Between Andrews, Davis, and Sims, I think Abraham is going to find himself a RB that is decent enough.

I'm also not a big fan of Witten/T. Williams sans Romo, but winds of change are a brewing in Dallas. It looks like Cassell is going to replace Weeden after the bye. While Cassell doesn't have a great record as a starter, I do know he can throw the ball better than Weeden can.

4) TOUCHDOWN MACHINE (3-2)

Gabs' team is a little banged up right now, but as long as Devonta Freeman and Tyrod Taylor are good to go, his team will remain competitive. Taylor is literally doing everything for the Bills on offense--throwing, running, and catching passes. Yes, you heard me. He even played WR on one series. Here's Tyrod's stat line from last week: 10-17 for 109 yards and 1 TD, 8 rushes for 76 yards and 1 TD, and 1 reception for 4 yards. 

Now if Gabs could just get a little more production from Cobb, Lacy, and Graham, his team could contend for FF "elite" status. I'm still bullish on Cobb. He's bound to get more love from Rodgers in the near future. Lacy has been a little iffy as of late but also difficult not to start. With GB building such large early game, they will need to keep feeding Lacy the ball to run out the clock. And Graham? He's a head scratcher. I can't blame Gabs for sticking with him, but the Seahawks don't really seem to be making any effort to get him the ball. It also doesn't help that Wilson has like no  time to make the reads he needs to make in the pocket. The Seahawks lead the league in sacks right now.

5) Aaron Chou's Team (3-2)

Aaron's team has been in a slump the past two weeks, but I'm expecting him to break out again. Palmer should continue to chip in 20+ points per game. Bell and Lewis are a solid one two punch combination at RB. The underrated Eric Decker is coming off his bye week. And Seattle defense continues to play well from a FF perspective. Bonus points for Aaron if Steve Smith returns this week from his rib injuries. Normally, a player with rib injuries would scare me, but Steve Smith is an iron man who can play through anything. Aaron's got all the pieces to beat David Lin this week and goto 4-2.

6) Unicorn Queen (3-2)

Things are looking up for Tim. He's getting strong play at the QB position from Cam (and Eli). Olsen is returning this week. And his WRs are providing very balanced scoring. However, Tim's RBs are still a concern me. Hyde is extremely talented but limited by the rest of his team. Rawls has lost whatever value he had now that Marshawn (and Fred Jackson) are back. And Gordon is playing like a true rookie--fumbling the ball and missing block assignments. It also doesn't help that he's playing behind a hodgepodge line in San Diego. If Tim can get more consistent production at the RB position, he'll move up.

Fun fact: Eli has scored 23+ points over the past four weeks. That's pretty darn consistent if you ask me. With Cam playing a motivated Seattle defense this week, Tim may want to consider giving Eli the start instead.

7) HAMAJANG (1-4)

I know my win-loss record is crappy, but I'm going to go out on a limb here and put myself at #7. My rationale? I've got more "Pts For" than all the teams below me, and a win next week would catapult me to 7th or 8th anyway. Here's what I like about my team. I've got a nice core in Forte, Rodgers, James Jones, and Gates. These four players went a long way in pushing me over 100 points last week, and as long as they continue producing, my team will see better days. It is true that Rodgers has struggled over the past two weeks. There are signs that he is starting to miss the vertical threat Nelson provided. (That back shoulder throw was automatic). However, I have complete confidence that the #1 QB in the NFL will figure things out. Just throw to Randall Cobb more! Right Gabs? Now if I could just pick the right guys to play at WR #2, WR #3 and RB#2, I'll have a good week. I guess this is where the "skill" piece of FF comes into play.

8) David's Team (2-3)

David Li's team is quietly getting better. Flacco had a good showing against Cleveland and is facing a weak but underrated SF defense next week. Forsett is starting to get into a groove. And Yeldon has held down the fort long enough for Beastmode to return. Willie Snead has been a good pickup too. Maybe this will be the week that David Li finally breaks 100 points. He's playing me after all.

9) It's a me! Mariota! (2-3)

After another subpar performance from Peyton, David Lin has finally turned the reins over to Hawai'i local boy and hero, Mariota. Now his team name matches his starting QB! Yay!

Mariota will give David's team a lift, not a big lift but a lift nonetheless. He's got better FF numbers than guys like Tanehill, Cutler, Brees, and Bridgewater, and he's outplayed Manning the past two times he's hit the field. I also like what I see at WR. After a lot of monkeying around on the waiver wire, David Lin has finally landed himself a nice crop of WRs. Allen Hurns has been putting up Dez-like numbers the past three weeks. OBJ has been a bit hit-or-miss, but the Giants and Eli are trending up in a weak NFC East. As long as Eli keeps targeting OBJ, he'll have more weeks like last week. And Donte Moncrief should benefit with the return of Andrew Luck. The only thing holding David back though are his RBs--seems to be the recurring theme this season. CJ has got to be the biggest FF bust this season. Woodhead is still hit or miss. And Duke Johnson is playing second fiddle to Crowell although he does get those receptions. If David Lin can squeeze more points out of his RBs, he may be able to make some noise the next couple of weeks. 

10) I Called Game (1-4)

I still think highly of Duke's team, but for one reason or another, his talented group of players can't seem to put it all together. Some of the the blame lies in inconsistent individual performances (e.g.: Hill). Some of it lies in factors he can't control like injuries (e.g.: Foster) and poor QB play (e.g: Matthews and Megatron). Some of it lies in Duke hitting early bye weeks (e.g.: Brady, Blount, and NY Jets DEF). And some it lies in indifference/apathy. (Yes, Duke did start the NY Jets DEF last week even though they were on bye). 

Luckily for Duke though, I think he's got a good shot at taking down Tim this week. The Patriots are playing the Colts this week--the team that got them into the whole Deflategate mess. This means Brady is going to be super motivated to annihilate Indy. As a result, Blount will also get a TD or two too.

11) DeEz Nuts (2-3)

Here's a fun fact: Justina's team has failed to top 70 points the last two weeks. While the loss of Big Ben has been hard to recover from, I don't think that's the only problem she has now. Other parts of her teams are starting to unravel. Randle is on bye this week and in jeopardy of losing his starting gig to Christine Michael when he returns. That means she has to start DeAngelo, the only other RB on her bench. Wright and Mumphrey aren't getting it done. Vick has been a fairly decent back-up QB in real-life but only a so-so FF play. (I still think there better options out there on the waiver wire). And she plays Andrew this week. *Womp womp*

12) Spider Pig (1-4)

Do you like the picture Luke? I think it's cute. =) Here's another fun fact: Luke had the presence of mind to change his team name last week but not to pick up a different defense. This same defense, Houston, went on to score 0 points even after I wrote about how bad this defense was in this very blog. Guess which defense Luke is starting again this week? Yep, Houston.

A Response

First off, a standing ovation to Jeff for stepping up to the blogging plate and hitting homer after homer with his posts.  I have thoroughly enjoyed them, and encourage him to continue (more on this later).

Due to the bitterness that was seething through the screen of my mobile device that I sensed from Jeff towards me in his previous post, I felt I should respond.

1.  I beat Jeff.
2. Yes, perhaps luck was involved.  But I still beat Jeff.
3. Skill was definitely involved.  Even if the level of skill was minimal, it takes skill to log in to Yahoo and switch your FF players.  I beat Jeff.
4. Jeff can cry all he wants about being some lucky charm for other teams, and he can even doctor data to prove his point (I like that he said Abraham's beating of Duke was an anomaly, but also assumed my beating of him was not, since he didn't remove that game from his doctored data chart.  I beat Jeff.), but it doesn't negate the fact that his Points For is still in the bottom half of the league.  So sure, people are scoring ridiculous amounts of points against your team, Jeff, but sometimes the best defense is a better offense... said some coach somewhere.  Refer to Justina's classic Points Against post if you are confused about what I'm talking about.
5. My hypothesis for not making the playoffs since 2011 is what I believe is a blog curse.  In mystical terms, I believe I was cursed in fantasy football for writing in the blog.  In practical terms, the time it took me to write the blog detracted from the time I spent working on my fantasy football team.  Yet, here I am.  However, don't let that discourage you, Jeff, from continuing to blog.  Please continue.  Like the Timmy Curse, it may not actually exist.  I may just be that bad of an FF manager.
6. I realized I didn't answer Justina's question about why Hasselbeck liked my tweet, but that's because she answered her own question.  We are all ridiculously attractive.  Oh, and we were at a charity event for MTI, an organization he's involved in in Seattle. But my first point is more relevant.
7. Unrelated to Jeff's post - I figured David Lin and Aaron wouldn't have enough money to get Charcanderick, and consistent with what I guessed, Eric was the next to step up and splurge on Jamaal 2.0 - which could bode well for him.  But dang, $62 is a lot of moniez for a yet to be proven RB.
8. Never forget the #UnicornPower - shootout to Andrew for helping re-brand my team and create a winning culture.  I hope it lasts longer than a week.  It was the result of a bet, but I think I'm going to keep the name for now.

End of Week 5 Thoughts

1) Here's a recap of Week 5's matchups in gif form:

a) HAMAJANG (106.14) vs. Unicorn Queen (132.84)
After watching Eli, Hyde, Rawls, and Robinson go off, Tim was like this:

And I was like this:

Luck would not begin to explain it, Tim.

b) David's Team (92.00) vs. Unicorn King (118.00)
After Sunday's games ended, I was shocked to see Andrew losing to David Li.

But then I realized Andrew still had two players left--Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen.

So "Unicorn King treated [David's Team] like a Circuit City and closed them down with a comeback on Monday." Got that straight from Yahoo's recap summary. LOL. Who knew Yahoo was so funny?

c) DeEz Nuts (68.12) vs. It's a me! Mariota! (95.94)
After OBJ decided to show up this week, David Lin was like:

Mix in another dominant performance from McManus and Denver DEF vs. Oakland:

And a weak showing from Justina's team:

And David Lin got the win. Hooray!

d) I Called Game (68.10) vs. DanceDothe#JULIO (127.92)
Did anybody see the video of the KC Royals grounds crew kid getting swallowed up by the rain tarp the other day? I'll let you take a wild guess on who the tarp is and who the kid is.


e) SpiderPig (31.56) vs. TOUCHDOWN MACHINE (89.86) 
Gabs is angry:

Because James Jones keeps stealing all his TDs. But Gabs:

Because Tyrod Taylor keeps turning in all-star track performances:

And Devonta Freeman is literally ON FIRE.

Plus, you played Luke this week.

f) Di Yi (101.94) vs. Aaron Chou's Team (88.54)
After Jamaal Charles went down, Abraham was like:

But as per usual, the rest of his team (Dalton, Sanders, Chris Johnson, Gostkowski, and Arizona DEF) showed up to ready to play.

Meanwhile, Aaron's team has been in a slump the past two weeks.

2)  Wow Jeff, your FF analysis is like so on point.

Nah, I just read a lot of Grantland and MMQB and type up all the most interesting points in gif form.

3) I'm starting to feel like the FF version of "Good Luck Chuck". For those of you who aren't familiar with the movie, here's a quick synopsis from Google:

"Cursed since childhood, dentist Charlie Kagan (Dane Cook) cannot find the right woman. Even worse, he learns that each of his ex-girlfriends finds true love with the man she meets after her relationship with him ends. Hearing of Charlie's reputation as a good-luck charm, women from all over line up for a quick tryst. But when Charlie meets the woman (Jessica Alba) of his dreams, he must find a way to break the curse or risk losing her to the next man she meets."

How is this related to FF? Well, let's take a look at the final scores from my first five match-ups:

Week 1: Rainbow Warriorz (77.86) vs. SpiderPig (117.92)
Week 2: Rainbow Warriorz (78.86) vs. Di Yi (112.30)
Week 3: Rainbow Warriorz (120.12) vs. TOUCHDOWN MACHINE (113.48)
Week 4: Rainbow Warriorz (75.86) vs. DanceDothe#JULIO (100.28)
Week 5: HAMAJANG (106.14) vs. Unicorn Queen (132.84)

What does this tell me? You should want to play me. You'll have a 100% chance of scoring 100+ points and an 80% chance of scoring 110+ points. Sure, it's all circumstantial evidence, but an interesting pattern nonetheless.

4) Let's take it a step further. Here are the 12 teams in our league ranked in descending order by "Pts Agnst".

a) As you can see, Duke and I have got it the worst and it ain't even close. Y'all have rain bucket loads of points on us. We are both 100+ points over the average. The next closest team? Luke, who is only about 12 points above the average.

b) Now you may be asking yourself. Shouldn't Duke be this year's "Good Luck Chuck" then? After all, he's had the most points (618.78) scored against him. Yes, this is true, but it is worth noting that Duke's 120+ point loss to Abraham in Week 3 was a huge anomaly. Losing by that much in a single week rarely happens and therefore skews the analysis. If we were to adjust for this outlier (e.g.: say Duke lost by a more respectable margin of 60 points), the rankings would look like this instead...

Putting me in the lead for the "Good Luck Chuck" title. Yay?

c) It's also interesting to see Gabs cruising down there at 388.76 points. That's about 90 points below the average. Why such a low "Pts Agnst" total for Gabs? Look at who he's played so far: David Lin (Week 1), Andrew (Week 2), Jeff (Week 3), Duke (Week 4), and Luke (Week 5). That's four of the five worst teams in our league if you look at it purely based on record.

Looking ahead though, I think it's safe to say that things are about to get a whole lot tougher for Gabs. Here are his next three opponents: Abraham (4-1), Aaron (3-2), and Eric (3-2). That's three of the top four teams in our league.

d) Andrew and Abraham bring it every week. The rest of us do not, particularly when we play them. Andrew is 20 points below the average, and Abraham is almost 50 points below the average.

5) Here are my thoughts on NFL QB and celebrity, Matt Hasselbeck, liking Tim's tweet:

Ok just kidding. Twitter bromances aside, Hasselbeck's has had a solid two weeks--495 yards, 3 TDS, 0 INTs. He's done everything the Colts have asked of him in relief of Andrew Luck. Major props.

6) Speaking of Tim, can anyone remember the last time he made the playoffs? I couldn't (LOL), so I did some research on the blog. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the last time was 2011. That's like longer than California's drought.

Luckily for Tim, he's sitting in a good position right now at 3-2. This may be his year.

7 Success in FF is dependent on two things: skill (how well you draft/manage your team) and luck/chance (how healthy your team is/who you play in your weekly match ups). The former you can control, the latter you cannot. In Week 5, we see luck altering the FF competitive landscape yet again in the form of injuries. Here is a list of the notable star players who suffered injuries last week:

-Jamaal Charles (Torn ACL) - Out for the season
-Tyrod Taylor (MCL sprain) - Fairly serious
-OBJ (Hamstring) - Not that serious
-Julio Jones (Hamstring) - Not that serious

Abraham's championship hopes just took a major hit. Charles will be difficult to replace.

8) Continuing on this point, I got curious and decided to take a look at how many teams in our league have been directly affected by injuries. And by "directly affected", I define that as an every week starter getting hurt for 3+ weeks. By my count, there are now four teams that fit this bill:

-DeEz Nuts: Big Ben
-It's a me! Mariota: Dez Bryant
-Di Yi: Tony Romo and Jamaal Charles
-DanceDothe#JULIO: LeSean McCoy

That's 33% of our league. Factor in Tyrod Taylor, who could "miss multiple weeks", and the number climbs to 42%. If you want to get really creative, you could throw in Luke's team too, whose best player Antonio Brown has not been the same ever since Big Ben went down. That's crazy to think about considering we are only about a third of the way through the NFL season.

9) If I were to ask you who the top 10 WRs are in FF right now, who would you pick?

Julio, Fitzgerald, and Hopkins are all givens...

But James Jones at #4? Travis Benjamin at #5? And Allen Robinson at #8? That's kind of surprising. Who knew they would be outplaying guys named Odell, Keenan, Megatron, Cobb, Sanders, Demaryius, Maclin, and Smith. And if you take injuries into account (DeSean, Jordy, Alshon, and Dez), you start to realize that it's really hard to pick which WRs will do well and which won't.  I'll expand on this point in next week's post. Stay tuned.

(It's also worth noting that Brandon Marshall and Julian Edelman would have likely land in the top 10 if they did not have early bye weeks).

10) Did anyone watch MNF? What a gutsy play call by the Steelers to end the game. I wonder how much better Bell is going to play when Big Ben returns.


11) I'm no expert at NFL defensive formations, but I wonder why the Chargers bothered to line defenders up against the two WRs split out wide--one of them is Vick and the other is some player I can't identify. The Steelers are in the wildcat formation, so you know Bell is going to get the ball and run no matter what. Why not move another guy into the box to help out? And if on the off chance, it turns out to be a passing play, what's to say that Bell can throw the ball? Or that Vick can catch it? I know what you're thinking. It doesn't make any sense to leave a guy wide open like that, but it makes sense in my head.

12) On another note, Vick is playing well as a backup QB. If the Steelers had a stronger kicking game in Week 4, he would be 2-0 as a starter.

Jeff's Week 5 Power Rankings

1) Cry Me a Rivers (4-0)
I think this gif sums up Andrew's season perfectly:

Andrew's team is stacked from top to bottom. Rivers is coming off a 30+ point performance. K. Allen, Fitz, Marshall, and AP were all their usual selves. GB's defense came up big against the horrific 49ers. And Gio was a solid in his timeshare with Hill.

But you know what? The best news of the day may have come from Andrew's bench. Here was Todd Gurley's stat line against Arizona, a defense I heaped praise after praise upon in previous posts: 146 yards on 19 carries, 2 receptions for 15 yards. Did you know that in the pre-draft Gurley was compared to AP like a million times by scouts? That explains why the Rams drafted him 10th in the draft and why Andrew took a flyer on him in the FF draft. Let's see if Gurley can keep it up over the next couple of weeks. I mean...a FF team with one AP would be a pretty awesome team. A FF team with two APs on its roster would be:

Andrew's team will be the team to beat this season. I see no weaknesses.

2) Di Yi (3-1)
Not the strongest week for Abraham, but his team performs well enough to get the win. If this counts as a slow week for Abraham, then I think he should be pretty happy.

Charles, Dalton, and Green continue to anchor his team. Janikowski fills in admirably for Gostkowski. Williams and Witten still put up points despite playing in a lackluster Cowboys offense. Arizona's defense will bounce back. And Jeffrey should be coming back anytime now. I see no reason to move Abraham down partially due to the fact that I see no worthy challengers. There continues to be a steep drop off between the top two teams and the rest of the league.

3) DanceDoThe#JULIO (3-1)
Despite a dubious cast of characters at RB, Eric's team has broken 100 points three out of four weeks. Somehow, some way his team keeps finding ways to win. In Week 1, Eifert and Carolina DEF stepped up in a big way. In Week 2, it was Tucker. In Week 3, it was Gore with a surprise 20+ point explosion. This week it was Martin (where did he come from?), Tucker, and Carolina DEF. I don't understand how Eric's team is winning with such crappy RBs, but it seems to be working. Like my pal--Eminem--here, I'm not going to question it.

4) TOUCHDOWN MACHINE (2-2)
After a slow start the first two weeks, Gabs' team is starting to takeoff.

And the reason for Gab's success lies in Atlanta's do-it-all RB, Devonta Freeman. Milk him for all he's worth Gabs! Meanwhile, Lacy is producing reliable RB #2 numbers. Cobb and Tyrod will bounce back. (And if not, Alex Smith will be a good matchup spot play). Rueben Randle is surging as well because teams are double teaming OBJ. Gabs' defense and WR #3 (Anquan Boldin) will hold him back some.

5) Aaron Chou's Team (3-1)
Aaron has had a great season so far thanks in part to lucky breaks. (Hello Justina!).

But if you dig a little deeper, you'll see that Aaron actually has a decent team. He's got a strong core in Palmer, Bell, Decker, and Seattle DEF. New TE pickup, Clay, has looked promising too. I'm also interested to see how Lewis plays this week. If Lewis continues to put up points in a New England timeshare, then Aaron's team will move back up.

6) I Called Game (1-3)
Despite his record, I still think Duke has a good team. At some point though, his team needs to start performing in order to prove me right.

Tom Brady is returning from his bye. Jeremy Hill came back in a big way. Calvin Johnson was literally one second away from scoring a TD. And between Foster and Blount, Duke will find a dependable RB #2. He's got all the pieces in place to climb the rankings.

Beyond that, Duke's other WRs are difficult to figure out. Plenty of talent, but inconsistent at best. His two current starters are just ok. Matthews has cooled off in Philly, and Crabtree is steady but not great. That being said, he may have two better options on the bench in Vincent Jackson and John Brown. As for Kyle Rudolph, he needs to replaced immediately. Plenty of other TEs on waiver wire worth taking a gamble on.

7) DeEz Nuts (2-2)
Justina's team is trending downward, but I don't think things are as bad as they seem...as long as Justina puts a little more effort in this week. Randle and Ingram are steady contributors at the RB position. Gronk and Wright are returning from their byes. And Hopkins has been quietly having a great season. He may not be getting the same amount of attention as Julio, but he is producing week in and week out. (Hopkins is the #4 WR in FF scoring right now).

I'm also recommending an upgrade at kicker. Detroit's offense stinks right now, so Prater is not getting many opportunities. The Bills DEF has also cooled off some too. It may serve Justina well to pick up another defense as insurance.

8) DangIt (2-2)
Last week Tim's dreams of climbing into the FF elite crashed and burned. And to make things worse, Yahoo rubs it in with the following headline: "Cry Me a Rivers Beats the Pants Off Dangit., Streak Now at Four."

Why is Tim's team struggling? It starts and ends at RB. Gordon and Hyde are struggling big time. So much so, that if I were Tim, I would start taking trade offers.

On the bright side of things, Tim's WRs are getting better. Maclin is showing flashes of being a solid WR #1 and Robinson and Benjamin look like solid contributors.

9) Rainbow Warriorz (1-3)
Every time I name my FF team the "Rainbow Warriorz", its play matches the play of the real-life University of Hawai'i football team, which is certifiably awful. Maybe if I change my team's name this week, it will start playing better. Championship here I come.

Even with Rodgers, James Jones, Forte, and L. Murray in the fold, my team is still sucking it up. The return of Gates will help this week. As for the rest of my team, I got nothing good to say.

10) David's Team (2-2)
I thought about ranking David Li's team higher than mine, but then I realized his team has yet to score 100+ points this season. That's not the sign of a very strong team. Plus, I have more overall points than him. Let's see if Forsett and Yeldon can keep the momentum going this week. Throw in a dash of Flacco (good Flacco I hope), an underrated Giants D, and the steady Cooper, and David may get another win this week.

11) It's a me! Mariota! (1-3)
Tough loss to the other David last week. OBJ keeps getting blanketed everywhere he goes on the field. Peyton is declining. And CJ still can't get it going. In the midst of agony though lies a glimmer of hope. Last week Ronnie Hillman outplayed CJ, scoring 16.80 points in the process. (Most of it was on one play though). And Duke Johnson Jr. was a receiving maniac out of the Cleveland backfield. Is this the start of something? Or just a one-time deal? I have no freaking clue. It might also be time to put Mariota in.

12) Peppa Pig (1-3)
Get this. After scoring 117.01 points on yours truly in Week 1, Luke's team hasn't broken 90 points in each of the three weeks since. Drew Brees is battling a shoulder injury. Matt Ryan is losing points to Atlanta's rushing attack. Evans, Antonio, and Thomas are all limited by weak play at the QB position. Kelce is hit-or-miss. A good day from Starks would mean three or more points. Ivory is on bye this week and so is Minnesota's defense. The latter means that Luke has to turn to Houston DEF. The same defense that put up -2 points last week against Atlanta. Luke may be better off starting no defense at all.