Tim's Power Rankings - Week 13 + Predictions

What?  Power rankings and predictions on the same day?  You better believe it.

Power Rankings - Week 13
[Previous Rank in brackets]

1.   (8-4, 1335.96 pts) [3] - Aaron's team is on a roll, and it doesn't look like it'll be stopping anytime soon.  Talk about late season surge.  His RB2 is weak, but it doesn't seem to be affecting his team at all.  His players have just been stepping up each week.  For the last 4 weeks, he's been the league's top scorer.  FOUR weeks in a row.  Hasn't scored less than 131 points since week 8.  Ridiculous.  Like I mentioned before, though - if the Packers decide to rest Rodgers before the NFL playoffs, Aaron could be in trouble.

2. (9-3, 1357.44 pts) [1] - Justina's team is much improved with a new QB, but Aaron's team is just way too hot right now.  Losing situation for Justina, but she's still putting up good numbers.  BJGE has been impressive in replacing the hole left by Forte.  I want to see a rematch of these top 2 teams in the finals.  It'd make for an interesting one.

3.  (7-5, 1314.82 pts) [2] - Tough loss last week for Jeff's team.  3-game losing streak.  But I don't have any less faith in his team putting up a fight in the playoffs.  The winter weather could hurt Brady's stats, but he'll be fighting for a better playoff spot, so I'm sure he'll play better to compensate.  Or I might just be totally wrong.

4.  (6-6, 1207.46 pts) [5] - Cam Newton will continue to be irked by all his losses and will try to prove that he can win.  GO PANTHERS!  I need my WRs to step up if I'm going to keep winning, though.  There are definitely inconsistencies on my team, but I think it looks better than the rest on paper.

5.  (7-5, 1207.66 pts) [7] - Luke has set himself up for a pretty good end of the season.  2 solid RBs (until McFadden returns..), good-to-decent WRs, and a solid QB.  Not bad at all.

6.  (6-6, 1196.12 pts) [6] - Rounding out the playoff field, David has had some nice pickups (Vince Young, Laurent Robinson, Carson Palmer?), but I don't think his team is in it for the long-run.  It's got enough holes to be inconsistent

7.   (6-6, 1128.34 pts) [4] - Eric's team has fallen hard.  The past 3 weeks have found him as the 9th, 8th, and last highest scoring team for each week.  John Kasay might be past his prime..

8.  (5-7, 1139.40 pts) [8] - David had an ok first season.  I think his biggest flaw was keeping Stafford on the bench for so long.  I think he could have definitely had a few more wins if those points were converted to game points through a trade.  Just sayin.


9.  (4-8, 1073.12 pts) [9] - Laura rebounded a little from her unimpressive start, but unfortunately, it wasn't enough to elevate her into the playoffs.  At least she wasn't last.

10.  (2-10, 1031.06 pts) [10] - I don't think Gabs checks his fantasy team anymore.  6-game losing streak.  It's not like he'll be able to lose out to draft Luck.  But I guess there comes a point when there's not much to play for anymore.  gg Gabs.


Week 13 Predictions
SUPER SPEED!

	Tim	Luke	David Lin	Eric	Laura	Justina
Last week's record	(3-2)	(0-0)	(0-0)	(0-0)	(0-0)	(0-0)
Overall record	(33-22)	(11-9)	(7-8)	(24-16)	(13-7)	(9-6)

odoyle RULES v. JUSTINA OWNS - I have to win this game to guarantee a spot in the playoffs.  Odoyle controls his own destiny.  odoyle RULES and WINS.  Please?

Spider Pig v. JohnKasay#1 - Eric wisely puts Tebow in, which may end up being his redeeming grace, but I don't think it'll be enough.  Spider Pig wins.

Rainbow Warriors v. The Debbinator - Patriots are playing the Colts.  Enough said.  Rainbow Warriors win.

RelientK v. aaronisyourdaddy - I think this one should be obvious.  Aaron wins.

THE Pain Train v. Terrific Tortoises - Let me just mention that it is still statistically possible for David to get into the playoffs.  Will it happen?  No.  But at least he can hope.  Tortoises win.

Tim's Predictions - Week 11

Ouch.  A tough prediction week for me.  So much for the gut feeling.  Another Thursday game this week pushes predictions up a little earlier.

	Tim	Luke	David Lin	Eric	Laura	Justina
Last week's record	(1-4)	(0-0)	(0-0)	(3-2)	(0-0)	(0-0)
Overall record	(30-20)	(11-9)	(7-8)	(24-16)	(13-7)	(9-6)

Tim's Predictions - Week 11
odoyle RULES v. Rainbow Warriors
Jeff wins it.  Not sure if it's due to my team's lack of prowess or Jeff's team's awesomeness.  I'm hoping for another low point scoring spree for Jeff's, but I guess I should be more realistic.

Spider Pig v. The Debbinator
Michael Bush doesn't put up another 30 point week, so David wins it.  Possibly even without a kicker.

JohnKasay#1 v. aaronisyourdaddy
That Aaron's team is so hot right now - he'll continue his win streak.

JUSTINA OWNS v. Terrific Tortoises
Justina still has a stronger team, even after the trade.  Justina wins and further separates herself from the rest.

RelientK v. THE Pain Train
Assuming Laura puts a defense in that can score a few points, I think she'll have this one in the bag.  Know that Laura's team has always lost when I predicted her to win.  So maybe I shouldn't predict her to win.  Or maybe this week will be the week.  Laura wins.

Sherlock Pig and the Case of the Best Manager

The pig was smoking his pipe, sipping on some scotch when he was approached by a young dame by the name of Chubs, wondering who had the leetest managerial skills in all the lands. With some sleuthing, he created the following analysis:

Key Assumptions:

• Analysis is based off each team's core players, which is the team's hypothetical starters in a given week (taking current bye week into account) plus their highest scoring non-QB bench/flex player. 
• Analysis bases total core team points based on two scenarios - current week and week 1 rosters. 
• Kickers do not count as real people (sorry John Kasay) since they score pretty similarly and there isn't a whole lot of strategy involved with managing kickers.

Analysis:

The pig considers three metrics in his study of the best manager. Points added/subtracted per core personnel moves, points added/subtracted per total moves, and total point differential between week 1 and current.

Managerial skill ranking by points per core move:

Looking at points added per core move, it would appear that the Rainbow Warrior is our league's best manager. The only core move here is Felix Jones to Willis McGahee. While this did his team a big upgrade, it's a little misleading since he only really made one move (sample size too small perhaps?). 

Managerial skill ranking by points per total moves:

This is also misleading, as Relient K is tied for the least number of total moves, hence why she gets the highest points on a total move basis. Furthermore, one could argue that total moves is more to manage the status quo or gain potential rather than true team improvement. 

Managerial skill by total point differential:

Jackpot. While you may jump straight to averages, the total variance illustrates a great story. Four teams have strategically positioned their teams to be better over the course of the season through active management, and most non-quantitative analyses would put these four teams at the top. 

• Aaron, always a meddler with his team, picked up Aaron Rodgers and Fred Jackson over the course of the season, while only losing Arian Foster and Marshawn Lynch (among other moves).
• odoyle's brilliant pickups of Cam Newton and Demarco DeMurray has done wonders for his team. He also stole Steve Smith from the Pig (I want him back).
• Pig rebounded from losing Jamaal Charles early with pickups of Reggie Bush and MJD (via trade). His numbers are slightly misleading as Michael Bush was counted in his week 1 numbers (good drafting!)

What have we learned? Make as many moves as you need in order to succeed. Sometimes, your team needs revamping, as you can see that the top two in managing prowess have ethe most core moves and are 2nd and 3rd in terms of total moves. However, make sure you make the right moves and be patient with your team, lest you end up like the Debbinator (he hurts because he dealt away Aaron Rodgers and Fred Jackson, but only gained Arian Foster. Also, his stats may be misleading as his starting QB is Carson Palmer, but for statistics sake, the Pig used A. Dalton's numbers)

One last quip before power rankings for coach/manager of the year... a quick look at week 1 pts vs current week points not only shows us the best managers, but also shows who drafted the best (or were the luckiest).

If held constant, Rainbow Justina and Debbinator would have the best teams in the league right now, from a total core team points view. Justina and Rainbow currently sit at the top, given their great drafting skills, not necessarily their managing skills. Particularly Rainbow (does Jeff even look at his team each week?). Justina cashed in with Megatron and Ray Rice. 

So without further ado, current standings for coach of the year:

1. Aaron Chou (aaronisyourdaddy) - need any explanation here?
2. Tim Chang (odoyle RULES) - he's made some serious moves thanks to the resurgence of the Panthers offense and  his team will be a hot pick for the low-seeded upset come tournament time
3. Luke Lin (Spider Pig) - this two time champion has struggled with underperforming players (Eagles) and big injuries (Best, Charles) but is still relevant in the playoff picture thanks to his managing skillz
4. Justina Chen (JUSTINA OWNS) - great drafting skills (luck?) with just the right moves (TBD after this Stafford trade) has put her team at the top of the league for the first time in her coaching career
5. Eric San (JohnKasay#1) - His changes haven't been monumental, outside of his picking up of Mike Wallace, but a strong core certainly helps his cause. His team is dangerous.
6. Jeff Chen (Rainbow Warriors) - purely on his yearly reliance on the Patriots, which has manifested in a great draft. Luckily he hasn't sabotaged his team... yet
7. David Li (Terrible Tortoises) - Matt Forte is a win in my book. This will make his team much stronger going forward. Too early to say that he got the better end of the deal?
8. David Lin (Debbinator) - OK so he's the only one with negative impact between week 1 and current BUT I think we can attribute most of that to his boneheaded dealing away of Aaron Rodgers. Ultimately, it's hard to say he's a bad manager when he drafted 2nd best and is currently 5th in the league. 
9. Laura Jones (RelientK) - 2nd worst team in the league has made a few moves to improve her team. This is why she's no longer last place.
10. Gabriel "Gabs" Yeung (the Pain Train) - last place team has tried revamping his squad (7 core personnel moves) but can't seem to find a winning formula. Don't worry, you're 1st place so far for the "Mike Singletary Coach of the Year award" 

Til next time...

Further Explanation:

The analysis is done with total points of your current team "core" (starters + top reserve) versus your "core" team if you had kept your week 1 players. The points are current year to date totals. For example...

Justina Owns (current): 1123.36 total points

• M. Stafford 
•  AJ Green 
•  B. Marshall
•  Calvin Johnson
•  Ray Rice
•  BJ Green Ellis
•  F. Davis
•  P. Garcon 
•  Kicker
•  Baltimore  

Justina Owns (week 1 hypothetical): 1049.02 total points

• B. Roethlisberger
•  K. Britt
•  B. Marshall
•  Calvin Johnson
•  Ray Rice
•  Matt Forte
•  Vernon Davis
•  Kicker 
•  S. janikowski
•  Pittsburgh  

Tim's Power Rankings - Week 11

So, what has happened to the #1 spot after this week?...


Power Rankings - Week 11
[Previous Rank in brackets]

1.   (8-2, 1126.00 pts) [2] - Justina gets the bump up not necessarily due to her team's performance this week, but more because of Jeff's team terrible week.  As far as the trade, the addition of Stafford should be a nice addition (if he can avoid performances like this past week's), but I'm not sure if it'll make up for her loss of Forte.  BJGE might work out, but she might need to look for other options.  Honestly, I think the trade makes the rest of the season and upcoming playoffs that much more unpredictable / interesting.

2. (7-3, 1106.72 pts) [1] - Jeff scores the least amount of points this week.  One could argue he should be bumped down further.  I'll attribute it to a one-week fluke.  I think his team still has umph.  In spite of the fact that  teams have figured out Wes Welker.

3.  (6-4, 1060.92 pts) [4] - Aaron's team has been skyrocketing to the top with back-to-back high-scoring weeks.  It sure doesn't hurt to have Aaron Rodgers, and this week it was Jordy Nelson that racked up big points.  Aaron's team is peaking at the right time.  Justina and Jeff, watch out.

4.  (6-4, 991.42 pts) [3] - Tough week for Eric, and a big part of his future success rests in how Gore's knee holds up.  I think his team can still put up big numbers, but we'll see if it actually will.  A hurt Gore could put him in a rut.

5.  (4-6, 1038.74 pts) [5] - Unbelievable.  3 games lost by 0.6 points or less.  And my next three games are against Jeff, Eric, and Justina.  Guess who might be the highest-scoring team that doesn't make the playoffs?  I'm not bitter.

6.  (5-5, 1018.86 pts) [6] - The Arian Foster trade is paying off big time.  Nice Laurent Robinson pickup as well.  Carson Palmer?  No Aaron Rodgers, but it might get him by.

7.   (5-5, 1006.34 pts) [7[ - I didn't realize Luke picked up Michael Bush in the draft and has kept him since.  Nice.  His 30 points definitely gave Luke the W this week (as well as MJD's 19 points), but will he be a long-term fix at the RB spot?  Not sure about that one.

8.  (4-6, 932.04 pts) [9] - David got the win, but only because he played Eric, the 2nd lowest scoring team this week.  His team gets a bump up anyways because of the addition of Forte.  It's amazing how much one RB can make an RB duo look so much better.


9.  (3-7, 905.72 pts) [8] - A slight dip in the rankings.  Does it really matter at this point?

10.  (2-8, 893.24 pts) [10] - Sorry, I've run out of interesting things to say.  Clearly.

The best QB ever

"Haters gonna hate" - Carson Palmer (Not really)

Waiting

What happened to the previously promised analysis?

Here is a 44-second song to express how I feel about waiting for said analysis.  Hopefully, it will brighten your day.

John Kasay's Week 10 Predictions!

Early game this week. Let's make this quick.

JohnKasay#1 vs. Terrific Tortoises
aI don't know why but I'm slightly scared of the match-up this week. On paper, David has a lot of favorable players in his lineup. Plus, I'm on a 5 game win streak, that's rare. Could this be the week I lose? Perhaps but I'd like to give the edge to Philip Rivers (he carries me this week) just like last week. GO PACK!

odoyle RULES vs. Spider Pig
Tim has his Panther's line up back this week. Will get back on the winning track after last week's loss. Plus, how good a pick up was DeMarco Murray AND Antonio Brown?! Kudos to Mr. Chang. Luke has 2 Bush's as his RB's this week. Prepare to get bush-whacked! Tim wins. Go PANTHERS!

Rainbow Warriors vs. aaronisyourdaddy
I'm not trying to hate on Jeff's team but he seriously got SO lucky last week. I predicted him to lose because his pretty boy Patriots would stink it up.. (which happened in the first half of the game score: 0-0) and then they got a couple big hook up plays from Brady to Welker.. lucky if you ask me. and then V-Jax catches THREE touchdowns and Mcgahee reels off two 60+ yd runs? Not gonna happen this week. YOU CAN BANK ON IT. Also, aaron has Aaron. which is normally always a deciding factor.

JUSTINA OWNS vs. THE Pain Train
I predicted the upset of the year-to-date last week when Laura beat Justina. More love for Justina this week as I predict she will win.... okay, maybe not so much love as in Gabs' team just sucks... bad.. almost as bad as UNC's football team. that's right.

RelientK vs. The Debbinator
Carson Palmer? Yikes. That will be the reason David loses this week, IF he loses. But I don't think he will because of his stronger WR's & RB's. sorry Laura Wanyin Jones! It'll be close but no cigar!

Tim's Predictions - Week 10

Predictions coming out a little early this week due to a Thursday night game.  Laura was right - I should have went with my gut feeling.  Subsequently, I will make all my predictions this week based on my gut feelings.

	Tim	Luke	David Lin	Eric	Laura	Justina
Last week's record	(4-1)	(0-0)	(0-0)	(4-1)	(0-0)	(0-0)
Overall record	(29-16)	(11-9)	(7-8)	(21-14)	(13-7)	(9-6)

Tim's Predictions - Week 10
odoyle RULES v. Spider Pig
I ride the Panthers to victory, plus my awesome RBs.  Luke's team has nothing on me.

Rainbow Warriors v. aaronisyourdaddy
This one will be close, but Jeff's got it in the bag.

JohnKasay#1 v. Terrific Tortoises
Eric continues his win streak by continuing to find a way to win.

JUSTINA OWNS v. THE Pain Train
Redemption win for Justina, up against the worst team in the league.

RelientK v. The Debbinator
My gut says Laura, so I go with it.  Laura wins.  Carson Palmer, David?  Seriously?  He was so, like.. 2005.

Tim's Power Rankings - Week 10

Week 10 greets us with a new #1 team, as well as a little more clarity for the middle rankings with the help of David and I's handy analysis.  I updated the numbers for the analysis, and here are the new rankings based on those numbers:

1. Rainbow Warriors - 68%
2. JUSTINA OWNS - 63%
3. aaronisyourdaddy - 57%
4. JohnKasay#1 - 56%
5. odoyle RULES - 52%
6. The Debbinator - 51%
7. Spider Pig - 49%
8. Terrific Tortoises - 38%
9. THE Pain Train - 35%
10. RelientK - 32%

Onto my rankings!


Power Rankings - Week 10
[Previous Rank in brackets]

1.   (7-2, 1030.66 pts) [2] - Jeff regains his top spot after 5 weeks of settling for second.  Not only have his past few weeks been an impressive showing (2nd most points this week, 3rd most points the two weeks prior), he's been relying on more than Brady and Welker to carry him to victory.

2. (7-2, 1021.32 pts) [1] - Bumped down because of shaky and inconsistent play the past few weeks (2nd lowest scoring team in 2 of the past 3 weeks.. see, this analysis is helpful!).  I'm still trying to figure out why her team performed so poorly even though she only had Calvin Johnson on the bench.  It's not like Rice and Forte did poorly (although they definitely should be playing better).  Her QB didn't do so hot, but that's been the story of her season.  I guess she didn't get enough support from her WRs (outside of Marshall) and the other players (TE, K, DEF).  I'm just kind of at a loss.  Regardless, her team better pick up their act or else it could be a slippery slope from here.

3.  (6-3, 909.06 pts) [3] - Although Eric's team isn't putting up huge numbers, it's putting enough numbers to win each week.  5 in a row.  Granted, he's had relatively low-scoring opponents, but he's been scoring enough each victorious week to beat at least half of the league, so statistically he deserves to have his wins (plus one more).  He's got some nice pieces in place right now, and if Philip Rivers can perform like he's supposed to, Eric's got a good chance of making it far.  Without a doubt, he's been getting it done.  Quietly, but successfully.

4.  (5-4, 929.12 pts) [6] - A truly dominant showing has me convinced that Aaron's team deserves to be #4, if not further up.  His team has consistently been putting up numbers, sometimes from unexpected sources.  But he's got superstar QB Rodgers, so all he really needs is decent support to continue winning, and he's been able to find that.  Cruz has proved to be a good pickup, as has Lloyd as a Ram.  Don't forget about a healthy Antonio Gates.  If I were Aaron, I'd be looking for a solid backup QB in case the Packers decide to give Rodgers a rest before playoffs start.  Just sayin.'

5.  (4-5, 928.56 pts) [5] - Obviously, my team tanks on the Panthers' bye week.  I lose to David, but refuse to rank myself any lower.  I think you have to factor in future potential as part of the rankings, and this week's slip can be overlooked by the (hopefully) future threat my team poses.  Cam attack RAWR!

6.  (4-5, 901.20 pts) [7] - David has nice RBs, and he's definitely working his way up to prove his team's worth.  With his roster going full-force, he's got a nice lineup, but an injured Hakeem Nicks has (and will) definitely hurt.  The potential is there.

7.   (4-5, 895.62 pts) [4] - After looking at Luke's recent trends, I wondered how I ranked him so high previously.  I think it was because his team looked pretty good on paper - Vick (and Jackson - with potentially the double-points connection), Jennings, Colston, and MJD, along with nice pickups of the 2 Bush's.  I thought his team could do some damage.  Analysis shows otherwise.  He hasn't scored over 100 in the past 4 weeks, and was lucky enough to play not-so-hot teams last week and the week before, (wrongfully) earning him 2 wins.  Luke definitely gets props for decent managerial skills, but it's yet to translate well into a consistently high-scoring team.

8.  (3-6, 813.48 pts) [9] - Upset = Up-ranking!  Laura's team is still by no means scary, but I have to give it to them for beating Justina's vulnerable team.  Her team is still last according to the aforementioned analysis, but I attribute that to her team's consistently poor scoring in the first half of the season.  She's definitely been improving since, though.  Looks like Eli is finding his groove, and Laura is making her way up the top.. of the bottom.


9.  (3-6, 848.46 pts) [8] - David's team, on the other hand, has been the absolute lowest scoring team 3 of the past 4 weeks.  The week he didn't score the lowest, he had the 3rd to lowest points.  The only reason why I didn't put him at the bottom was because I had to respect his solid showing earlier in the season, and I couldn't justify pushing the last ranked team up any further.  Speaking of which..

10.  (2-7, 799.14 pts) [10] - Yeah, just sad.  I think once (and if) McFadden can get back on track, Gabs's team will be looking up.  But I don't think that will be soon enough to get them into the playoffs and make it count for anything.

Week 9 - John Kasay (goes 5-0) in predictions this week..

Going to keep it simple. It's late. Just got back. Tired. but I'm going 5-0 this week!

JohnKasay#1 v. THE Pain Train
-do I really need to reason here? no question I win. hands down. gonna hit a 5 game win streak (JUST LIKE MY WOLFPACK did today to that "flagship" institution UNC-CHeat)

odoyle RULES v. The Debbinator
-Panthers on 'bye' week. Tim's team sucks it up.

Spider Pig v. aaronisyourdaddy
-Aaron has Aaron. nothing else needs to be said.

Rainbow Warriors v. Terrific Tortoises
-Those pretty boys from New England won't be enough for Jeff this week. No AP. No "all-day" The tortoises run past Jeff's team this week. Loss number 3 coming up.

JUSTINA OWNS v. RelientK
-Upset of the YEAR! that's right.

till next time folks! happy Sunday!

Tim's Predictions - Week 9

	Tim	Luke	David Lin	Eric	Laura	Justina
Last week's record	(4-1)	(0-0)	(0-0)	(3-2)	(3-2)	(0-0)
Overall record	(25-15)	(11-9)	(7-8)	(17-13)	(13-7)	(9-6)

Tim's Predictions - Week 9
odoyle RULES v. The Debbinator
David catches me on the Panther's bye week, and subsequently beats me.  I think it'll be close, but his lineup looks a lot scarier than mine.

Spider Pig v. aaronisyourdaddy
Now that McFadden probably won't play, that increases Michael Bush's value.  But I like Aaron in this one.  I'm going to ride Justina's analysis and say that since teams seem to play better against Luke, Aaron will capitalize.

Rainbow Warriors v. Terrific Tortoises
Chris Johnson is a dud, BUT Jeff doesn't have Peterson.  Wow his RBs looks a lot less scary without him.  I think Tom Brady can make it happen for Jeff, though.  Jeff wins.

JohnKasay#1 v. THE Pain Train
Eric gets an easy week against the lowest ranked team in the league.  To make matters worse, McFadden is out for Gabs.  Eric wins with ease.

JUSTINA OWNS v. RelientK
I'm so tempted to give Laura the victory here.  Calvin Johnson is on bye, Eli Manning will blow up against the Patriots, and... gah I can't decide.  Justina wins it and clenches a playoff spot - her RBs are too good.

Because analysis is the new thing now

Leave it to Luke to start a trend.  Who knew algorithms could be so interesting, and yet so time-consuming?

I couldn't wait until next week to unveil my analysis, so you're getting it now!  How's that for analysis overload in one week?!

Anyways, building upon what I saw as flaws (minor, yet significant) in the previous analyses by Luke and Justina, I decided to partake upon an endeavor to create my own analysis.  I wanted to get down to the nitty gritty and figure out who really has had a legit team, and who has not had a legit team.  There has been concern about the reliability of the Points Against category, and I hope to address the issue from a different standpoint, and really just determine who deserves to have all the wins and who deserves to have all the losses.

Here's what I did:
1) I went back to all the previous weeks and made a table with all of the points scored by each team on each week.

Click to enlarge

2) I figured that on any given week, each team has a certain percentage of games they would win based on how many points they scored relative to how many points other people scored.  The team that scored the most points that week would have won regardless of who they were playing, thus that team would have a 100% chance of winning that week.  The second highest scoring team would have a 88.89% (forgive the rounding) chance of winning that week, and so on.

Take Week 1 for example: Justina scored 131.8 points, which was more than anyone else that week.  So no matter who she played, she would have won.  Jeff scored 118.68, which was the second most.  The only team he could have lost to would have been Justina, but there would only be a 1/9 chance (11%) of him being matched up with Justina, thus his chance of winning that week would be roughly 89%, because he would have beaten any other team.  And so on.  Aaron's team would have won 0% of his games, because he had the lowest score.  So Justina's Points Against that week was 90.18 (since she played Gabs, the 3rd lowest scoring team that week), but that stat doesn't take into account that regardless of who Justina played, she would have crushed them.  It just so happened that she played the 3rd worst team that week.  Therefore, these percentages are a better indicator of team strength on any given week.

3) Based on how many points each team scored each week, I assigned them the percentage chance that they would win for that week.

4) I then averaged these values over the span of 8 weeks to determine the probability, on any given week, that a team would win its game.

Click to enlarge

The green and the red just indicate actual wins (green) or losses (red) for each week.

Click to enlarge

The fall colors are just based on percentage.  Portrays trends nicely.  Thanks to David for that one.

Here are the rankings based on my analysis (if you're too lazy to open the photo file to look at it, or don't understand it).  The percentages represent the average chance that each team would have won on any given week, based on how many points that team scored relative to the other teams each week.  Hence, indicative of the strength of their team's performances thus far in the season.

1. JUSTINA OWNS - 69%
2. Rainbow Warriors - 65%
3-T. JohnKasay#1 - 54%
3-T. odoyle RULES - 54%
5. aaronisyourdaddy - 51%
6. Spider Pig - 50%
7. The Debbinator - 47%
8. Terrific Tortoises - 43%
9. THE Pain Train - 36%
10. RelientK - 29%

This information is valuable, because it silences the argument that if a team has had X amount of Points For or Points Against, then that team is weaker or stronger (and hence the team's record could be misleading).  Instead, it looks at each individual week to see if that team really deserved to win that week, using probability.  This factors in W-L records, points against and points for, etc. etc. all into one nice little chart. At least I think it does.

Basically, it justifies the Yahoo rankings.  Even though Justina and Jeff have low Points Against, they have scored enough points relative to the other teams each week, that regardless of who they played, they probably would have won (or lost) anyways, and would have thus had the same rank as they currently have.

The major aberration is Laura, who has seemed to escape last place in the Yahoo Rankings in spite of underperforming each week.  I'll attribute that to her victory over me in week 5, with her team scoring the 2nd lowest points and my team scoring the lowest.

Luke and Aaron are also swapped, but that's insignificant to me.

In summation of all of our wonderful analyses, Justina has created a heat map:

It basically provides a nice little comparison of the new rankings v. the Yahoo rankings.  It's unanimous that Justina and Jeff should be first and second, respectively.  The rest is kind of weird.  Besides me being 3rd in all the new rankings.  :)

Points Against: What does it really mean?

This "Points Against" argument has been brought up a few times: some teams have a really low "Points Against," and maybe don't deserve their ranking (either high or low).  Personally, I find this a little offensive because it suggests that I don't deserve my #1 - which is also why I loved reading Luke's analysis in the previous post.  But anyway, here's how Tim, Luke, and I tackled the issue:

Here are our teams and Yahoo! ranks, sorted by "Points for."  As you can see, there are only a few differences: Tim has more points than Eric, and David Lin has more points than Aaron - in both cases, the higher-ranked team has a better win/loss record.

Here are our teams sorted by "Points against."  As noted before, Jeffrey's team has the lowest Points against in our league.

Here's where the math comes in.  I totaled the "Points for" of each of the 8 teams each team has played so far, then divided it by 8.  This is the total of the average number of points each team scores per week.  I realize this is an over-simplification, and will address it in the closing points.  But anyway, let's do an example.  Jeffrey hasn't played David Li yet, so I totaled the "Points for" of everyone else's team, divided by 8, and that's how I got 802.11.  That's a 125.07 point difference from what we actually scored against him.  Which means that for whatever reason, we underperform when we play Jeffrey.  Likewise, we play really well against David Lin and Gabs.  Interestingly, we play almost exactly as predicted when we play Aaron.  This probably has interesting implications for future predictions.  So does this mean David's rank isn't indicative of his team's ability?  And more pressing (for me), does this mean Jeffrey's team is grossly overrated?

Maybe not.  Still sorted by "Points against," this shows that Jeffrey's team's "Points for" is 109.775 points higher than my calculated average "Points against."  The only other two teams to come out in the blue are Tim's and mine, with 37.1025 and a decisive 136.1425, respectively.

Here it is in graphical form:

And now for a quick re-ranking, sorted by the difference in "Points for" and my calculated "Points against":

So yes, David Lin might be right.  Even though his team's "Points for" is less than my calculated "Points against" for his team, it's not by much.  The only other team to experience a significant change is Eric's - no doubt boosted by his wins over Jeffrey's and my teams. In the end, I'm mostly relieved that my team still ended up on top.

A few closing points:

• In general, it makes sense that Jeffrey's and my Points Against are pretty low, because we only face one of the top two scoring teams (ourselves).
• We realize that this is slightly flawed because it uses the average weekly score from each team, and we all know that our scores vary widely from week to week.  Which is why... We're going to do more analysis next week!  Stay tuned.

Because Justina told me to...

More analytics run on our fantasy league. I extrapolated our top 50 players Season-to-date and saw how much they affected our overall team performances. Here is the summary table:

First impressions... obviously our top two teams belong where they are. Justina has a walloping 8 players in the Top 50 overall with Jeff nipping on her boots at 6. What's shocking, though, is the fact that Laura and David have just as many players in the top 50 as Jeff, yet have two of the worst records in the league. A mystery? Not quite. With my incredible deductive powers and Watson, aka Microsoft Excel, at my side, a closer look reveals some shocking truths.

Justina's team has a great distribution of players covering a wide array of positions, while Jeff has two QBs and two TE's in his top 50 distribution. Even though Justina's team has several bottom feeders of the top 50, she also has big powerhouses (3 in the top 15). Jeff also has 3 in the top 15, but the fact that he has two QB's in the top 20 means he can definitely afford to upgrade some other positions. What does this mean? Justina and Jeff have been riding their sheer power in the top 15 to a hotspot in our rankings. The only other team with 3 players in the top 15? odoyle RULES (Cam, Steve, and LeSean). Which means, watch out league... Tim's a coming.

Now what about our friends at the bottom? While Laura and David have a decent distribution of positions in their top 50, you'll notice that their player ranks are significantly lower. What does this mean?

Quality > Quantity

Even though Laura and David matched Jeff in number of players in the top 50, their top 6 players scored a walloping 200 pts less than Jeff's top players. In actuality, Jeff (802) and Justina's (840.3) teams are in another world when looking at total points from top 50 players, with the closest runner up being aaronisyourdaddy (613.7). Why then, is Aaron at a mediocre 6th place in the league? Easy. The rest of his team stinks. Unless... Antonio Gates starts stringing some games together. 

The last enigma Luke will visit today, is JohnKasay#1. Eric only has 4 players in the top 50, with his best player being Mike Wallace (16th overall) and barely getting any production from his top 50 (414.1). Why is he 3rd in the league, you may ask. I could say something about his managing skills, or the fact that Frank Gore has shot up in production lately (10th overall in last 4 weeks). Truth is, I have no idea, but Eric's on a 4-game winning streak and I think I'd rather not play him. 

What can we infer from all of this? Having a well balanced attack at the top makes a huge difference (Justina vs Jeff) and having some top-heavy players can separate you from the pack (J&J vs everyone else). One last observation... Spider Pig only has 1 player in the top 20 (Vick) and his top 50 players haven't contributed much (559.7) but you people have been ranking his team in the top 5 for several weeks now. Overrated? Or is the Pig a brilliant FF mastermind that plays the waiver wire like a fratstar plays sorority girls? I'll let you decide...

Also, because Justina likes graphs, here's one to leave you with:

Luke's Power Rankings:

1. JUSTINA OWNS
2. Rainbow Warriors
3. odoyle RULES
4. JohnKasay#1
5. Spider Pig
6. aaronisyourdaddy
7. Terrific Tortoises
8. The Debbinator
9. RelientK
10. THE Pain Train