Week 2 recap by Justina

Justina Makes Awards - Week 8

Despite the number of upsets predicted, this week ended up being relatively uneventful with the higher seeds all winning their matchups.  Not a lot of material to work with here, but I mustered up enough wit for a few awards anyway!

The End the Lockout Award goes to Terrific Tortoises!

Gosh life is hard sometimes.  Sometimes it's your first year playing Fantasy Football, you get third overall pick, and you pick up Chris Johnson because Yahoo! says he's a decent RB.  And sometimes (all the time) he underperforms.  And sometimes Miles Austin is injured, comes back, and doesn't play as well as he used to.  And to top it all off, sometimes Brees can't save you, and then you lose to Luke.  A 3-game losing streak isn't the end of your Fantasy season, but you might want to pray a little harder for the end of the NBA lockout so you can dominate at a Fantasy sport again.  Lo siento hf.


The Occupy Fantasy Award goes to everyone other than me and Jeffrey!

I made this handy-dandy pie chart to show that Jeffrey and I (20% of teams) have a little over 22% of the points.  I know, 3% seems like nothing, but with every week that goes by, we entrench ourselves a little deeper in the top two spots.  The rest of the slices are color-coded by record.  Of course, none of this matters in the playoffs, but I just wanted to put it out there that WE GOOD.

Justina Makes Awards - Week 6

Since Laura did Awards and Predictions last week, I will be in charge this week!  "I put plastic on your chairs so feel free to wet yourselves with excitement."  Points if you know where that's from!

The Willow Smith Achievement Award goes to THE Pain Train!

Absolutely no one predicted you to win.  Even Laura and I predicted Tim's team would beat yours, and we usually champion the underdog.  But you know what?  Don't let haters keep you off your grind.  Just shake 'em off, shake 'em off.

I guess Luke's prediction that I'd run out of snark before my team ran out of steam (oh heeeeyyy 6-0!) may be accurate, because I couldn't think of any other awards.  Instead, I'll leave you with some thoughts:

• Can we talk about how terrifying Eric's team is?  The guy writes scathing power rankings, coin tosses his way through predictions, and still comes out with the week's biggest blowout.  It just isn't right.
• Believing in the Tortoises isn't enough sometimes.  Speaking of which, you want to talk trades tonight? Stafford, maybe??
• But believe in Laura's team, and you won't be disappointed!  Thanks for the +1 on my predictions record; sorry Luke, that it had to come at your expense.

Laura and Justina Make Awards - Week 5

Whew, that was an interesting weekend, huh?  I can't wait to see the damage it's wreaked on our prediction ratings. This week's awards are written by Laura:

Can't Catch a Break award goes to odoyle rules!

This is how my Sunday night went: "Oh, look! I only need 11 points to beat Tim - I'm going to watch the game." I cheered for every yard Michael Turner gained, after his TD I thought for sure he could gain a few more yards - half a game left!

Half time: cook dinner, eat really fast.
Third quarter: watch in horror as Atlanta's offense stinks and GB gains the lead.
Fourth quarter: cheer wildly as Turner has an eight yard run and puts me ahead, 73.20 - 72.36.

THAT WAS THE SCORE WHEN I WENT TO BED. I did have the thought that a stat correction could change things, but I was just excited to have won a game! Or so I thought. So imagine my surprise when I woke up Monday morning to find that 2 extra points had been given to Tim's defense to put him on top. WHAT IN THE WORLD??

Tuesday morning: It's back to 73.20 - 72.36, all is right in fantasy world.  Yahoo, quit playin'! YAY I WON A GAME

Tim: Man, that stinks. You've lost two in a row, each by less than a point, to myself and Justina. The good news? You aren't playing a girl next week. Hey, maybe your team should start hanging out with mine near the bottom of the power rankings. Then it wouldn't have to fall so far.


U MAD BRO? award goes to JohnKasay#1

  

First off, I think it's great that you were the only one who picked your team to win, against an undefeated Jeff, no less. I apologize for writing your team off and calling them ugly. Congrats! Justina says thanks for making her the only undefeated team in the league.

That being said, you might want to dial down the hate this week...it won't compensate for the ugliness of your team and I don't think it worked well for you in your predictions (2-3) and was it just me or did "and I'm pissed" look scary in that font?

P.S. Ugliness doesn't have to equal nastiness, thank you!


Finally, here is my bomb roommate Terrific Tortoises with a special message:

"To: Eric
From: David Li"

See you next week!

Laura Makes Predictions, Justina Agrees - Week 5

You know the drill, Laura does all the analysis in black, and I add snarky, unhelpful commentary in green.


RelientK (0-4) vs. odoyle rules (2-2)

My team continues its streak... and win or lose, Cam puts up good numbers. But you know what, Tim? I get to celebrate Canadian Thanksgiving on Monday AND do it all over again next month too. So I'm the real winner here :)

Winner: odoyle rules | odoyle rules (Sorry Laura!)


Spider Pig (2-2) vs. JUSTINA OWNS (4-0)

Justina will continue her unbeaten streak because she's way prettier than Luke.
OH MY GOSH I'm blushing.  And I agree, suck it Gay-el.

Winner: JUSTINA OWNS | JUSTINA OWNS AGAIN


Rainbow Warriors (4-0) vs. John Kasay#1 (1-3)

No competition here - the hottest team versus the ugliest. I don't think I need to explain.
Agreed.  And this way, Jeffrey can keep me company at the top, WHAT 5-0 HERE WE COME.  Like Hawaii.  Hawaii 5-0.  I did a lot of dissections today, and I think I'm tripping on paraformaldehyde.  By the way, want to hear about what it's like to go to London Fashion Week on acid?  Yeah, you do.

Winner: Rainbow Warriors | Rainbow Warriors



THE Pain Train (1-3) vs. aaronisyourdaddy (2-2)

The Colts are terrible, Andre Johnson is out, and there are 4 potential TEs on Gabs' roster. On the other hand, I'm not so impressed with Aaron's team, BUT maybe Aaron Rodgers will carry his team to victory again... 40 points this time?
I didn't realize Gabs had 4 TEs.  I wonder what he's planning on doing with them... Most likely world domination?  Also, did you guys notice that no teams are 3-1?  What does that mean?? So many questions!

Winner: aaronisyourdaddy | aaronisyourdaddy



Terrific Tortoises (2-2) vs. what's poppin slime (2-2)

Battle of the Davids! I think this will be close. The Tortoises are gonna slow their roll and slime will do better, especially when starting Arian Foster. So that should average around 100 points each. I'm picking David Li because of Drew Brees, CJ and Owen Daniels. Oh and Dwayne Bowe, whoever he is.
I at least agree that it's a close match, and I guess that means I have to support my roommate.  Speaking of whom, did you maybe get my message about Stafford? INCEPTION!

Winner: Terrific Tortoises | Terrific Tortoises

Laura and Justina Make Awards

Rather than write power rankings (let's be real, other than putting our teams on top, they'd be about the same as Yahoo!), Laura and I are going to alternate giving out weekly awards!  With pictures!

This week's Sorry, Not Sorry Award goes to odoyle rules!

You lost to me by 0.6 points.  That's gotta hurt.  I hope karma doesn't swing around to hit me with point adjustments, but for now, I'm going to gloat.

And the Haters Gon' Hate Award goes to Terrific Tortoises!

Everyone said you wouldn't do it, but you did!  You won!  Congratulations! And like this year's Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, you're going to give half to Laura and me for predicting you to win, because we, too, showed those haters.

Never ones to discriminate, this is for our Spanish speaking haters:

See you next week, losers.

Laura and Justina Make Predictions

Looks like you guys are in for another treat because Laura and I wrote predictions!  Hers are in black, mine are in green.

RelientK (0-3) vs. aaronisyourdaddy (1-2)

OK so I gave up too quickly on Eli and Bradshaw last week. I really thought the Eagles aka “The Dream Team” were going to dominate. Anyway, I'm hoping last week was a hint of things to come! Also, my team's attractiveness went way up in starting Eli...sorry, Aarons (Aw that's so cute, you share names with your starting QB!) I think my team will be able to earn its first W. I'm tired of being a loser!

This is probably the prediction in which I have the least confidence, but I sincerely hope Laura wins.  I’m a little worried Aaron’s team will make the most of their matchups, and I also think he might have some karma points from that snarky e-card I sent him (on his Facebook wall), but I hope it doesn’t manifest in this week’s match.  Or in my matches, ever.

Winner: RelientK | Relient K

odoyle RULES (2-1) vs. JUSTINA OWNS (3-0)

I really don't know. I think this one will be close, even though Justina's team is way uglier than Tim's. But let's be real, the main reason is because Cam Cam is such a cutie. (Justina can you add to this – I don't really know your team well! Thanks ;) You can pick the winner for this one!)

Okay, so I’m working on a modified system that takes into account the player’s position.  For example, the prettier the QB, the more responsibility his offensive line feels to protect the goods, and the higher the likelihood for better passing, touchdowns, etc., so a linear scale makes sense.  On the other hand, the uglier the WR, the less the coverage wants to be near him, and the higher the chance of him being open for a catch, so a lower score is actually preferable to a higher one.

Obviously, this theory isn’t watertight (darn your pretty face Wes Welker), but since Jeffrey’s team is an all-around headache anyway, I think it’s pretty good.  And from this logic, I think my team should win.  Tim's QB may be cuter than mine, but my WRs are fuglier.  I’m a little nervous about starting A.J. Green because Laura and I both gave him a 6, but I’m hoping the other WR on the field is at least as attractive to the defense.  By the way, you want to see someone crazy looking?  Look at Jerome Simpson.  Or rather, try to look past Jerome Simpson’s forehead at his face. What was I talking about?  Right, football.  Although our teams may be comparable at this point, I think my players’ individual matchups look a little better than Tim’s.

Winner:  JUSTINA OWNS

Spider Pig (1-2) vs. JohnKasay#1 (1-2)

This is not even fair. Spider Pig has favorable match ups (according to Yahoo!) AND is close to average in looks, whereas JohnKasay#1 has got to get some beauty sleep... RBs need some help, Justina and I gave them 2s and 3s! At least you have Phillip Rivers, but I'm not sure he'll be able to balance out the rest of your scary, in a bad way, looking team.

Word.  I also like this prediction because it fits in with my position-specific rating system thus far.

Winner: Spider Pig | Spider Pig

Rainbow Warriors (3-0) vs. what's poppin slime (2-1)

Excuse me for a second, I need to call Justina out for a minute. Were we even looking at the same picture of Rob Gronkowski?! A NINE, really? I gave him a THREE. Maybe, just maybe, I was getting tired of ranking players by the time I got to Jeff's team.

Well, both of these teams can score ridiculous amounts of points. I don't really have a good reason other than going with our power rankings… but I'm picking the Rainbow Warriors. What do you think, Justina?

HAHA well I think the fatigue affected us differently: Laura ranked lower, and I got really generous.  By the time I got to Gronkowski’s relatively attractive face, it was like looking at an angel.  Yeah, I said that.  Anyway, I hate picking Rainbow Warriors as the winner because it goes against my new model, but I guess it must be the outlier.

Winner: Rainbow Warriors | Rainbow Warriors

THE Pain Train (1-2) vs. Terrific Tortoises (1-2)

Since Gabs is benching Tony Romo...I'm picking the Tortoises. Plus, I think Chris Johnson will finally have a good fantasy game – and do you know why that will be? Because, my Tar Heel friends, your football team is going to lose on Saturday to the Pirates in Greenville. That is a much more important prediction ;) So, CJ will be so happy he'll play like he's worth 13 million bucks or whatever it is.

I'm going to agree, mainly because I have no idea, so whatever Laura suggests is fine with me.  I almost wish David would lose so he would finally feel like he has more to gain than lose from trading away Stafford.  And then I wish he would trade him to me, because I would take good care of him.  And then I wish I could have a pet rhinoceros.  But getting back to the point... who’s to say that who’s greater, all we know, they ain’t the same. It’s a Cole World, no blanket.

Winner: Terrific Tortoises and East Carolina | Terrific Tortoises AND GO HEELS GO AMERICA

Laura and Justina Make Power Rankings

Following in Luke's footsteps, Laura and I came up with an incredibly complicated algorithm to power rank our teams. I call it "Here is where we tell you how hot we think your players are." That's right, we ranked each and every player on your team (except defenses, except in one case, on which I'll elaborate later) based on pure, raw looks. And some of your players looks is raw.

Please take a moment to suspend all judgment on our superficiality: believe us, there were moments where we questioned our own moral fiber, and as for my sanity - I question that every day.

We gave each player a score from 1-10 based on their Yahoo! player profile picture, but normalized to football standards. Let's face it, if we judged everyone on a scale of 10 = George Clooney, we'd be dealing with fractions. Neither of us gave anyone a perfect 10, but I do think our scale is realistic enough that he probably exists on a bench somewhere. We also didn't give out too many low scores: no zeros or ones, and we only gave a player a 2 if we thought he maybe wanted to eat us for dinner. Some of them were mean mugging in their pictures, and man, those mugs are mean.

Interesting note: Laura said that when she was tutoring football players at ECU, the o-line players were always like big teddy bears, but the defense players were straight mean sometimes.

That said, this was our score distribution among all 140 players:

The highest score Laura gave anyone was an 8; she gave those to Tom Brady and Tony Romo.

My highest score was a 9, and that was to Rob Gronkowski.

We each gave 6 people a lowest score of 2, but I was too lazy to figure out if they were the same 6.

You can view the entire spreadsheet, and all of our individual rankings here.

And here are the results:

Or in graphical form:

As you probably guessed, Jeffrey really lucked out having practically the entire Patriots offense. He also has two defenses while everyone else has one, so we gave him an averaged 3.5 for Detroit Lions (such a pretty blue) in lieu of a 15th player. Jeffrey, I'd recommend picking up Rex Grossman if you want a higher score. BUT GEEZ ERIC yo team is ugly. U-G-L-Y, ugly. They uggos.

Finally, I ran a simple function to show correlation between the rank determined by our "algorithm," and our Yahoo! Fantasy rankings, and it is 0.32. HAHA.

I also tried to see if there was a correlation between our average score and our Fantasy point totals, and it's a slightly higher 0.54. So maybe.

In conclusion, Laura and I will probably have to adjust our algorithm and re-rank, but I have some great ideas like adding points for dating Kim Kardashian, and subtracting points for getting arrested.