I brought out the PANTHERS & SUXS a little late this season, but I guess better late than never right? As a reminder: PANTHERS = Postseason Analytical NU THANG Happy Endings Real Statistic aka % chance of making playoffs. And SUXS = Sacko Unfortunate eXit Statistic aka % chance of being Sacko. GOOD LUCK TO ALL THOSE WHO NEED IT.
1. Run It Back! (Gabs) (9-4) [2]
Gabs’s team is set up for success in the playoffs. He’s all but secured a 1st round bye with the highest Points For, and is the favorite to win Regular Season Champ, assuming his team performs as expected in Week 14. While TE has been a weak spot for him for much of the season, Gabs snagging Darren Waller from waivers last week may end up being the move that wins him the Playoff championship. The Houston D pickup should pay dividends as well.
PANTHERS %: 100%
SUXS %: 0%
2. Terrific (Taylor’s Version) (David) (9-4) [1]
David’s team has been see-sawing the past month, going from one of the top scorers to one of the lowest scorers every other week. Losing Amon-Ra for who knows how long will be a big blow, and will likely prevent David from winning his 2nd Regular Season Championship in 5 years. Honestly, given the difficult matchups David’s players are facing this week, even the 1st round bye is not fully secure. He’ll need ARSB to return soon to stand a chance at going far in the playoffs, especially given the difficult schedules his main players have in Weeks 16-17.
PANTHERS %: 100%
SUXS %: 0%
3. Just Didn’t Catch D’Achane (Haji) (8-5) [3]
Haji is still in contention for a 1st round bye, but with CMC on bye, it’ll be an uphill battle. Stranger things have happened, but at least if he can’t secure the 1st round bye, the Week 15 matchups are pretty favorable for Haji’s main players. Even into Weeks 16-17, Haji has some manageable matchups as well. If CMC + Achane + Davante can stay healthy, the sky is the limit for Haji. I’m actually very surprised in a season with so many injuries that CMC has stayed healthy with his usage. One of the reasons I was willing to trade CMC away was because I was betting on him getting injured at some point this season, but he’s been an absolute tank.
PANTHERS %: 100%
SUXS %: 0%
4. ToInfinityandBijan! (Eric) (7-6) [4]
Eric has pretty much secured a playoff spot with his high Points For. The only way Eric doesn’t make the playoffs is:
1. Eric loses to Gabs AND either:
Abraham beats Luke AND scores 36 more points than Eric AND Jeff Chen beats Aaron AND scores 80 points more than Eric OR
Luke beats Abraham AND either Jeff Chen wins AND scores 80 more points than Eric OR Andrew wins and scores 95 more points than Eric
Clear as mud? I mean, while it’s technically possible for Eric to get bumped out of the playoffs, realistically Eric’s PANTHERS % should be 100%. Eric’s team has been somewhat up and down throughout the season, so he’ll need to find some stability going into the playoffs, hopefully from his RB room. If he can make it past the 1st round, I think Week 16 will be a bloodbath for whoever Eric faces: Herbert + Ladd vs. Cowboys and Bijan vs. Arizona should translate to lots of production.
PANTHERS %: 99%
SUXS %: 0%
5. Unicorn QueenZ (Tim) (8-5) [6]
I’m still not completely over my team’s Week 12 loss to Jeff Chen. I think it cost me a potential 1st round bye, which my team desperately needs. If Omarion Hampton can get healthy before the playoffs, I like his chances of being the X-factor that gives me an edge in the postseason. Otherwise, it’s just a hope for the best situation, given the stiff competition out there.
PANTHERS %: 100%
SUXS %: 0%
6. 第六 (Abraham) (6-7) [7]
With a win, Abraham will have enough Points For to beat out Luke for the last playoff spot. This is assuming Jeff Chen or Andrew’s teams don’t score 47 and 70 more points (respectively) than Abraham’s team. Abraham’s key players (Pickens, Love, Kyren) all have favorable matchups. Addison (and the whole Minnesota offense) will be a liability, so Drake London’s health may be the deciding factor with TMac on bye. It’s a tough call, but I’m going to give Abraham the slight nod in this game. This will be the matchup to follow in Week 14.
PANTHERS %: 50%
SUXS %: 0%
7. Spider Pig (Luke) (7-6) [5]
Luke just needs a win and he’ll clinch a playoff spot. Whether that will happen against Abraham is TBD. I think Luke’s chances are really a toss-up. Josh Allen has a favorable matchup vs. Cinci, Puka and Olave have been producing at a high clip, and I’m assuming Luke is starting Washington D against a dilapidated Minnesota offense. But on the flip side, Saquon has been atrocious as of late, Monangai has gotten more opportunities but faces a tough Packers D, and Waddle is up against the Jets D. I’m pretty excited to see what happens here to determine who gets the last playoff spot.
PANTHERS %: 48%
SUXS %: 0%
8. I am not sacko! (Jeff Chen) (6-7) [8]
While Jeff Chen is statistically still in the playoff hunt, he’s realistically only playing to doom Aaron to Sacko. Jeff would need to beat Aaron and score 47 more points than Abraham, PLUS an Abraham victory over Luke to secure a playoff spot. This wouldn’t have sounded unreasonable in Week 4, but Lamar appears to be playing through a lingering injury, which has caused Jeff’s team to plummet. It’s possible James Cook explodes against Cinci, but Jeff will need more than just that to go on a scoring rampage this week. At least I like his chances of beating Aaron, which bodes well for Laura.
PANTHERS %: 2%
SUXS %: 0%
9. chinaballa (Andrew) (6-7) [9]
Similar to Jeff Chen, Andrew still is statistically in the playoff hunt, but has a much smaller chance given his lower Points For. He really needed the win against Eric to keep his playoff hopes alive. I feel like Andrew was inching closer to being the favorite to win that matchup at halftime of the MNF game, but then New England just stopped scoring after that. Andrew has probably all but checked out at this point, given he hasn’t updated his roster to bench his players on bye for Week 14. I don’t see David complaining.
PANTHERS %: 1%
SUXS %: 0%
10. choubacca (Aaron) (3-10) [10]
Aaron pulled out the unlikely win against David to keep his hopes of not being Sacko alive, much thanks to Amon-Ra’s early exit from the Thanksgiving game. It’s very possible Brock Bowers, Ja’Marr Chase, and Jalen Hurts can keep Aaron out of Sacko, but even with a weakened Lamar, I predict Jeff Chen’s team will prevail. I will say, I have been impressed Aaron has still stayed engaged throughout the season given how ugly his team looked at the beginning of the season. Aaron was able to capitalize on some injuries and opportunities to find some hidden gems and stayed active enough on waivers to cash in on players like Rico Dowdle, Kareem Hunt, Kenneth Gainwell, and Michael Wilson - at least to give him enough Points For to give him a glimmer of hope with one game left in the season.
PANTHERS %: 0%
SUXS %: 53%
11. The IR-Relevant Team (Jeff Lin) (5-8) [11]
Jeff Lin is just playing for pride at this point, with a 0% PANTHERS and 0% SUXS. It was a rough year for Jeff, and even his FF prowess could not save him from the injuries and mishaps his team faced this season. At least his smack talk / engagement was still active, so A+ for entertainment value.
PANTHERS %: 0%
SUXS %: 0%
12. Maybabyboo (Laura) (4-9) [12]
I really do think the Jacoby Brissett / Bhayshul Tuten trade between Laura and Haji will be what keeps Laura out of Sacko this year. Jacoby will be up against a tough LA Rams D, but he’s been on a tear, and the Rams secondary was embarrassed by Bryce Young last week. Chase Brown has been playing well, and Allgeier is primed to vulture a TD at any point in the game. Jayden Higgins has been a Flex-worthy player, and I believe Justin Jefferson will get more targets and will inevitably do better this week. I think those 5 players (plus CMC on bye) will be just enough to earn Laura a Week 14 win. Confession time: I feel partially responsible for how bad Laura’s team has done this season because I helped her draft her team. While I tried really hard to land her James Cook since she had him last year, I clearly didn’t try hard enough (Jeff’s ridiculous draft money hoarding habit / scheme actually worked this time), my gamble on the JJ McCarthy + Justin Jefferson stack fell flat on its face, and I thought Chuba and Zay Flowers would be much better than they actually were. So now as an act of penance, I am speaking a Sacko-less season into existence for her. Amen.
PANTHERS %: 0%
SUXS %: 47%
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