Week 10 is approaching, which means only 4 more games until playoffs begin. Some teams have all but given up, while others are still trying to scrap together a late-season push to make it into the top 8 before Week 14 rolls around. Our updated playoff probabilities look something like this:
Abraham has essentially clenched a playoff berth (even though Yahoo! doesn't officially recognize it yet). But honestly, it doesn't come as a surprise. Abraham has become this year's Jen - how is he doing it??
Unfortunately, our first-year manager has essentially been eliminated from the playoffs. Granted, my calculations may be flawed, so under extreme, improbable circumstances, Andrew could still make the playoffs. I mean, he has the easiest remaining schedule (Duke, Aaron, Eric, David Li). But if we're going under the assumption that any playoff team will need 7 wins to make it, Andrew's team is a goner for the season. I think that assumption may be inaccurate for this season, seeing as how there isn't much parity between the bottom 7 teams. So maybe Andrew's chances are more like 0.04%, my calculator just rounded down.
The 4 teams with 6 wins (Jeff, Luke, David Lin, Luke), all still have very strong chances of making playoffs, so the remaining three spots will be duked out between a mix of good teams that have been struggling (Justina, David Li), bad teams on the rise (me, Aaron??), and bad teams that are just hoping for a chance (Eric, Gabs, Andrew??). Of these teams, David Li and I have the most difficult remaining schedules (David plays me, Justina, David Lin, and Andrew to finish the season while I play David Li, Luke, Justina, and David Lin). Gabs comes out with a relatively breezy last four games (Abraham, Duke, Aaron, Eric), so don't be surprised if you see the Train rolling into the playoffs. I'm seriously doubting my chances of winning any more games the rest of this season. :(
But enough speculative talk about the playoffs, on to the rankings:
1. Charlotte Hornets (7-2) [1]
Abraham had -2.18 points from Philip Rivers, AND he had Randall Cobb and Alshon Jeffery on the bench, yet he still pulls out a victory, puts up a better score than more than half the rest of the league (which means he actually deserved the win), and maintains his grasp on the top spot in our league. There's got to be some fantasy voodoo magic going on here. Only logical conclusion.
2. Seenie J (6-3) [2]
Jeff pulled out a solid win without his star RB. His team's not showing signs of slowing down, although this week's matchup against the Pigs will show what Jeff's team is made of - he'll be without his star QB, and who does he have to choose from? Flacco? Fitzpatrick? Hoyer? Vick??? He did it without Forte, I think he can do it without Luck (pun intended). Just look at who Luke has on bye this week.
3. Spider Pig (6-3) [3]
Luke's team continues to get it done. Arian Foster might be wearing down, though. And Luke has the most difficult remaining schedule in our league (Jeff, me, Abraham, Justina). Can his team finish the season strong? It'll be tough.
4. Unicorn Burps (6-3) [4]
David has set his team up for playoff success. He's already told me his secrets - something about hacking into all of our teams and giving himself all the fantasy points in the whole league or something. I think he might be a little too determined to win it all this season. But honestly, assuming his team can stay healthy, he'll have the ammo to actually win legitimately.
5. I'm Coming Home. (6-3) [6]
I guess adding Josh Brown wouldn't have mattered, but Duke might consider a little more seriously starting Big Ben over Crapernick. Now that Duke has all but secured a playoff spot, I'm wondering how potent his team can actually be with Josh Gordon back in action come Week 12. It might just end up being the best $5 of fake money he's spent this season.
6. DeMarco Da Murrier (4-5) [5]
That was rough. I feel you 100%, Justina. But don't worry, your team will bounce back. You got DeMarco - have no fear.
7. Odoyle rules! (4-5) [9]
I badly needed the win to stay relevant for the playoffs. I'm liking my Beast Mode add, and hoping that will help me through a few more of these last few games. I'm not buying in to my team completely yet, though. Like I mentioned earlier, the rest of my schedule looks tough enough where I can foresee not winning any more games. I'm happy to take pity wins for the blog's sake (I'm looking at you, Luke, David Lin) - just putting that out there.
8. #myteamSUCKS (3-6) [8]
Eric's momentum was screeched to a halt because of his bye week woes. At full force, I think he can make a late-season push, though. He had Rodgers, Jordy, and Martellus benched this week - those are his primary weapons, and he'll be thankful for them these next 4 weeks. He's could easily win 2 or 3 of his last 4 games (
Justina, David Lin,
Andrew,
Gabs).
9. Terrific Tortoises (4-5) [7]
It was a bad week for David. But on the brighter side, Percy Harvin got 13 points! Bad news is, that was the most points David got from any of his players. And even badder news is, it looks like Gio might be out for another week, maybe more. And maybe the baddest news is, Nick Foles is probably a goner for the season, and David's stuck with Cam Poopton as his QB. So many questions arise: Will he be spending the rest of his $69 on Mark Sancheezy? Will Percy Harvin carry his team? Can Trent Richardson actually throw a TD pass to himself, and if yes, why doesn't he just do it all the time???
10. jaMAULing time (2-7) [10]
Andrew's team actually scored a respectable amount of points this week. I don't think it's out of the question that he could win out the rest of the season, especially with Jamaal looking sharper. If he does, it will make for a feel-good story. I know he's determined to prove my playoff probability predictor wrong.
11. The Pain Train (3-6) [11]
When you're starting two RBs from the same team, and that team is the Bucs, you know you're struggling. Gabs has made some solid waiver pickups (LaFell, Martavis Bryant), but it just hasn't been enough to offset his RB woes.
12. Chou Chainz (3-6) [12]
Ok, Aaron's team might deserve a slight bump up, but I'm still chalking his win against Justina as a one-week fluke. So no bump up yet. His win against me wasn't because of how good his team was, but because of how bad mine was. But with Jeremy Hill getting extra PT due to Gio's injury, Jimmy Graham starting to heat up, and Dez Bryant still in his pocket (even with Romo questionable), I could see Aaron winning another game before the season is up. His team gets no more love than that from me, though. Not until they can come up with another decent week.
