Showing posts with label Draft Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Draft Analysis. Show all posts

Thursday, August 28, 2014

Pre-Season Rankings (With Draft Analysis) - Part 3

And finally, ranking #1-#4.  Let the arguing begin.

1. Unicorn Burps

QB - Tom Brady $4, Johnny Manziel $1 - Grade: B
RB - Marshawn Lynch $57, Rashad Jennings $18, Ahmad Bradshaw $1, Jonathan Stewart $1 - Grade: B-
WR - Brandon Marshall $46, A.J. Green $51, Jeremy Maclin $8, Hakeem Nicks $4, DeAndre Hopkins $4 - Grade: A+
TE - Charles Clay $1, Coby Fleener $1 - Grade: C
K - Stephen Gostkowski $1 - Grade: B+
DEF - Cincinnati $1 - Grade: B
Intangibles - Grade: A
Unused $1

The new commissioner manages to put together a pretty formidable team in spite of some hiccups in his drafting (Johnny Football?).  Putting most of his money on Marshawn and two great WRs could have screwed him up in the latter part of the draft, but he won big-time with his first QB pick:
His RBs and TE are probably his weakest positions, but if Marshawn can manage to stay healthy and Rashad can turn around the Giants historically bad running game, David could be easily prancing to the championship.  His WR combo of Brandon Marshall and A.J. Green is sick, and given his ability to waiver-hunt and his even-more-vested-interest in the league as a commish (hence, an A for intangibles), I think David Lin's team is the team to beat right now.

2. GHOTEM

QB - Russell Wilson $6, Robert Griffin III $4 - Grade: B-
RB - Jamaal Charles $74, Frank Gore $22, Trent Richardson $9, Danny Woodhead $1 - Grade: A-
WR - Pierre Garcon $21, Reggie Wayne $10, Julian Edelman $9, Michael Floyd $11, T.Y. Hilton $9 - Grade: B
TE - Jordan Cameron $10, Jason Witten $4 - Grade: B+
K - Matt Prater $3 - Grade: A
DEF - Seattle (Sea - DEF) $7 - Grade: A
Intangibles - Grade: A-
Unused $0

It turns out Andrew really did want Jamaal Charles, as he was willing to shell out the most money for any player in this draft:
That's a whole 37% of his budget.  For one player.  Not long afterwards, he reached for Frank Gore as well:
The question is if this will actually pay off.  I think Jamaal Charles will, but am not convinced Gore will be a sufficient RB2.  Andrew was able to turn things around by just filling up his roster as quickly as possible with serviceable deals:
Some of his pickups were questionable (Frank Gore for $22, Reggie Wayne for $10, Jordan Cameron for $10, Seattle Defense for $7, Trent Richardson for $9 - which was kind of a fluke), but he had some good pickups as well (Michael Floyd, Julian Edelman, T.Y. Hilton, Russell Wilson, Jason Witten).  The point was that he put people on his team that he actually wanted, and didn't ridiculously overpay for many of them.  Therefore, those questionable pickups, when viewed in the bigger-picture, didn't overshadow the good pickups.
His team, however, looks fragile.  He lacks true depth at RB, and he has no superstar WR to carry the load.  But as a rookie manager in our league, I think Andrew knows more than we might think he does, and he's got something to prove.  So we'll see

3. The Pain Train

QB - Drew Brees $42 - Grade: A
RB - Eddie Lacy $65, Doug Martin $22, Ronnie Hillman $1 - Grade: A-
WR - Mike Wallace $10, Marques Colston $14, Riley Cooper $5, Stevie Johnson $1, Jermaine Kearse $1, Marvin Jones $2, Eddie Royal $1 - Grade: C+
TE - Julius Thomas $26 - Grade: A
K - Steven Hauschka $1 - Grade: B+
DEF - San Francisco $3, Kansas City $2 - Grade: A-
Intangibles - Grade: A-
Unused $4

The reigning champ is out to win it again, and actually put together a pretty good draft.  I think he reached a little for Eddie Lacy, but evidently it's who he really wanted.  Snagging Doug Martin later on for $22 was impressive:
His glaring problem lies in his weak WRs.  Wallace tends to be feast-or-famine, Colston has a history of injuries, and Riley Cooper is unproven.  All his other positions are strong, though, and as the reigning champion, Gabs has something to play for - his pride.

4. Spider Pig

QB - Matt Ryan $10 - Grade: B
RB - Adrian Peterson $70, Arian Foster $37, Darren McFadden $1, DeAngelo Williams $2 - Grade: A-
WR - Demaryius Thomas $60, Eric Decker $10, Greg Jennings $2, Cecil Shorts III $1, Jarrett Boykin $1, Justin Hunter $1, James Jones $1, Brian Hartline $1 - Grade: B
TE - Antonio Gates $2 - Grade: C+
K - Unfilled - Grade: C
DEF - Houston $1 - Grade: B-
Intangibles - Grade: B+
Unused $0

Mr. Instant Gratification #1 went hard for Adrian Peterson and Demaryius Thomas - spending a combined $130 on those two players alone.  That was more than anyone else spent on two players.  Luke then made the mistake of reaching for an injury-prone Arian Foster at $37.  If Foster stays healthy, it will be a great pickup.  I just don't think that will happen.  As a result, he gets stuck with a relatively weak supporting cast at WR.  If it weren't for his luck at grabbing Matt Ryan, Luke might have gotten royally screwed (refer to Eric's team):
But at the end of the day, Luke's team isn't as bad as it could have been.  As it stands now, his RBs are a great duo, and if they can stay healthy, Luke will be riding them to victories.  If not, he'll be falling flat on his face.
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Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Pre-Season Rankings (With Draft Analysis) - Part 2

Happy Wednesday!  Pre-Season Power Rankings Part 2 features spots #5-#8.

5. Terrific Tortoises

QB - Cam Newton $10, Nick Foles $5 - Grade: B-
RB - Giovani Bernard $46, Shane Vereen $22, Joique Bell $8, Chris Johnson $3, Knowshon Moreno $1 - Grade: B-
WR - Julio Jones $42, Andre Johnson $22, Percy Harvin $23, Sammy Watkins $5 - Grade: A-
TE - Zach Ertz $4, Dennis Pitta $4 - Grade: B+
K - Phil Dawson $1 - Grade: B
DEF - Arizona $2 - Grade: B-
Intangibles - Grade: B-
Unused $2

David Li began the draft rather quietly, likely scared off by the excess spending, like the rest of us fake-money-savers.  Because of this, he ends up with some deals he'll live with: Gio for $46 and Julio for $42, all things considered:
He stumbles a little by fighting Aaron aka Yahoo's crappy autodraft, and ended up reaching a little for Shane Vereen, although it wasn't all-too-terrible if Vereen stays healthy:
David finished with some OK deals: Cam for $10 (which I don't think was on purpose), Chris Johnson for $3, and potentially Percy Harvin:
While his WRs are pretty good as they stand right now, they have huge question marks next to them, as all 3 have had a history of injuries.  That could end up biting him in the rear end... but if they stay healthy, it would be his strong-suit.  Only time will tell.

 6. Odoyle rules!

QB - Aaron Rodgers $42, Jay Cutler $5 - Grade: A
RB - Le'Veon Bell $42, Ryan Mathews $16, Bishop Sankey $5, Bernard Pierce $5 - Grade: B-
WR - Larry Fitzgerald $23, Wes Welker $22, Torrey Smith $9, Emmanuel Sanders $16, Terrance Williams $4, Steve Smith Sr. $3, Doug Baldwin $2, Marqise Lee $1 - Grade: B+
TE - Jordan Reed $5 - Grade: B
K - Unfilled - Grade: C
DEF - Unfilled - Grade: C
Intangibles - Grade: B-
Unused $0

I'd say my draft was pretty average.  I tried not to stretch too far for the big names, and managed to get a few deals I was happy about:
People were just going off the board at way too high of a price, and with me being a saver, I couldn't fork out the money for the players I wanted (especially Peyton Manning, JEFF).  There are a few question marks on my team that I don't feel entirely comfortable about - Le'Veon Bell's mary jane problem, Wes Welker's broken head, and now Bernard Pierce's "mild concussion."  But if those clear out, I'm liking my chances of redemption.  I have some sleepers I'm hoping will pan out, and if all else fails, I'm banking on Aaron Rodgers putting up some big points this season.  I'm hoping my strategy pays off, but honestly I'll just be happy to finish not last.  Preferably in the top half, which I think is doable.

7. I'm Coming Home.

QB - Colin Kaepernick $3, Ben Roethlisberger $2 - Grade: C-
RB - Alfred Morris $34, Andre Ellington $36, Stevan Ridley $5, Steven Jackson $2 - Grade: B-
WR - Calvin Johnson $64, Roddy White $20, Josh Gordon $4, Brandin Cooks $5, Odell Beckham Jr. $1 - Grade: A-
TE - Rob Gronkowski $19, Eric Ebron $1 - Grade: A
K - Shayne Graham $1 - Grade: B+
DEF - Cleveland $1 - Grade: B
Intangibles - Grade: C+
Unused $2

Duke was relatively quiet at the beginning of the draft, mostly because everyone was outbidding everyone else and he probably couldn't justify dropping so much for the big names.  However, once he started picking up players, he did so with purpose:
Megatron was a pricey pickup, but probably a good one, given that Duke had the money to play with.  He ended up with a good deal on Gronk, assuming he stays healthy:
But I definitely questioned his Josh Gordon pick:

Which he responded with:

Sure, Luke kept pushing it, but I would just let him have Gordon, but that's just me.  If Gordon is allowed to play this season, however, this could be the best pickup of the entire draft.  If not, I guess all Duke would have lost was $4 of fake money.  I've also realized that since this league doesn't involve real money, Duke probably doesn't care.  Which may explain the funniest moment of the draft:
Speaking of which...

8. MUSCLEhamster!

QB - Eli Manning $1 - Grade: F-
RB - LeSean McCoy $66, Ray Rice $17, Reggie Bush $32, Maurice Jones-Drew $1, Pierre Thomas $1, Devonta Freeman $1 - Grade: A
WR - Jordy Nelson $43, DeSean Jackson $18, Rueben Randle $6, Dwayne Bowe $8 - Grade: B+
TE - Martellus Bennett $3 - Grade: B+
K - David Akers $1 - Grade: B
DEF - Denver $1, New York $1 - Grade: B+
Intangibles - Grade: B
Unused $0

Eric spends nearly 60% of his money on RBs - more than anyone else in the league - and ends up with a good RB lineup, but a not-so-good everything else.
While that wasn't a terrible deal, putting all his money down early costed him big-time.  Jordy and DeSean are good WRs, but the drop-off after those two is pretty significant.  Plus, I'm not sure any team in our league, as far as I can remember, started Eli Manning and ended up in the top half of the league.  Just sayin'.
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Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Pre-Season Rankings (With Draft Analysis) - Part 1

So that draft was interesting.  I want to first say that I enjoyed seeing how things played out.  It certainly gave us a good idea of who was motivated more by delayed gratification (Justina) versus instant gratification (Eric, Luke).  I know not everyone was a fan of the auction draft for various reasons (instant gratification people felt screwed by the end of the draft, it took longer than expected because the time to nominate and bid was extended since it was our first time, autodraft messed a few people up), but I am not entirely convinced that it was an unfair process.  The jury is still out in my mind as to whether I'd want to do it again.  I liked that you created your own destiny and weren't limited by your selection position.  But it did tend to drag a little by the end.

Regardless, our league's very first auction draft in the books, and now it's time for (drum roll, please).... POWER RANKINGS.  Since it would be way too long if I put all the rankings in one post, and to add a little more suspense, I have decided to split the pre-season rankings into 3 parts.  Each part will be published around noon PST starting today and ending on Thursday, giving everyone a whole week to argue with me before the regular season begins.  So without further ado...  Power Rankings, #9-12

9. Seenie J

QB - Peyton Manning $58, Andrew Luck $15 - Grade: A+
RB - Matt Forte $67, Darren Sproles $6, Ben Tate $9, Terrance West $1 - Grade: B
WR - Michael Crabtree $17, Cordarrelle Patterson $19, Danny Amendola $1, Kenny Stills $1, Jerricho Cotchery $1, Andrew Hawkins $1, Brandon LaFell $1 - Grade: C
TE - Ladarius Green $1 - Grade: B
DEF - Carolina $2 - Grade: A-
Intangibles - Grade: C
Unused $0

Jeff went hard for his first two picks, putting down $125 for Forte and Peyton, being surpassed only by Luke in most money spent on 2 players.

However, Jeff didn't do as good of a job scrapping together a supporting cast as Luke did.  This was partly due to his inability to stay in the draft because of connection issues (Andrew Luck for $15, Cordarrelle Patterson for $19), which is basically what screwed him over.  I mean, Andrew Luck for $15 when he already had Peyton definitely screwed him over.  But I think Jeff has potential on his team.  I like Ben Tate as an RB2, Cordarrelle could pay off, and... well, that's it.  According to Andrew, Jerricho Cotchery has arthritis and dentures, so I'm going to go with a low-ceiling-high-floor on him.

 10. Charlotte Hornets

QB - Philip Rivers $4 - Grade: C-
RB - Montee Ball $60, Toby Gerhart $18, Carlos Hyde $1, Tre Mason $1 - Grade: C+
WR - Antonio Brown $36, Alshon Jeffery $37, Randall Cobb $36, Mike Evans $1, Harry Douglas $1 - Grade: A
TE - Kyle Rudolph $1, Tyler Eifert $1 - Grade: B+
K - Justin Tucker $1 - Grade: B
DEF - St. Louis $1, Indianapolis $1 - Grade: B
Intangibles - Grade: C+
Unused $0

Abraham waaay overpaid for Montee Ball:
Ball is a big question mark, especially in a Denver running game that shares it a little too much.  And that hurt him when he was trying to pick RBs to backup Ball.  His QB will be a big liability, but he at least was able to pick up very solid starting WRs, which is what he'll have to rely on to get anywhere this season.

11. Password is Taco

QB - Matthew Stafford $21, Tony Romo $2 - Grade: B
RB - DeMarco Murray $47, Lamar Miller $4, Chris Ivory $3, Fred Jackson $2, Jacquizz Rodgers $1 - Grade: C-
WR - Keenan Allen $26, Victor Cruz $28, Vincent Jackson $22, Anquan Boldin $2, Kelvin Benjamin $9, Golden Tate $6, Kenny Britt $1 - Grade: A-
TE - Greg Olsen (Car - TE) $6 - Grade: B+
K - Unfilled - Grade: C
DEF - Unfilled - Grade: C
Intangibles - Grade: C
Unused $20

Justina saved a little too much money, as the end of the draft showed.  Her first pick was DeMarco for $47, which was a big stretch, in my mind.  She then went WR-crazy and snatched Keenan Allen, Victor Cruz, and Vincent Jackson, all for around the same price.
She could have spent a little more on some better players, but her insistence upon saving allowed her to do this:
AKA waaaayy overpay for Kelvin Benjamin but waaaaaayyy out-muscle and frustrate me.  That could pay off big-time for her.  I'm big on KB doing well this year.
She muscled for Golden Tate and Greg Olsen, and was eventually the first to finish, even though she was a slower starter:
Can you believe - that $20 could have bought her DeSean Jackson or Roddy White!

12. Choux AKA Sweet Buns

QB - Andy Dalton $1, Carson Palmer $1 - Grade: F
RB - Zac Stacy $35, C.J. Spiller $30, Jeremy Hill $1 - Grade: D
WR - Dez Bryant $52, Kendall Wright $9, Tavon Austin $1, Markus Wheaton $1, Jordan Matthews $1 - Grade: B
TE - Jimmy Graham $54, Vernon Davis $11 - Grade: A
K - Adam Vinatieri $1, Mason Crosby $1 - Grade: B+
DEF - New England $1 - Grade: B
Intangibles - Grade: D+
Unused $0

Watching the computer draft for Aaron was soooo entertaining.



It's safe to say he has the worst team in the league right now.  Jimmy Graham and Dez Bryant will have to carry his team, but that's definitely not enough to make up for the big holes in his roster left by a TERRIBLE WR supporting cast, a questionable Zac Stacy and CJ Stinker, and dreadful QBs.  And he can't even vulture over the waiver wires anymore.  Sorry, Aaron.
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