Tuesday, December 10, 2024

Week 14 (Final) #PowerRankings - Keeper Projections Edition!


Thanks to everyone for another fun FFNUTHANG season! The smack talk, drama, excitement, anticipation, and twists and turns of the season don’t get old. This will be the last #PowerRankings, so I’ve included some Keeper Projections and Pre-season Rankings for comparison purposes. Good luck to no one in the playoffs except me!



1. PickensUpRussellinnn#throwback (Eric) (8-6) [1] [Pre-season Rank: 9]

Eric’s team has shown signs of vulnerability these past 4 weeks, but his team is still the team to beat heading into the playoffs. His matchups are also overall pretty good, too. So in spite of his team finishing the regular season 4th in the league standings, the championship will have to go through Eric.

Keeper Projections: Josh Jacobs ($29), Lamar Jackson ($27)

Can Eric resist the urge to not keep his superstar QB? Nah, dyNASTYs are built on the backs of QBs, so give him Lamar for $27. Bijan at $63 is a bit steep, so it would seem Josh Jacobs at $29 is a better spend. I could be wrong, though, given Eric only kept Bijan from last year and no one else. And clearly, he knew what he was doing. Shoutout to Jerry Jeudy at $2, though - maybe that’s the bargain play Eric wants to take? A lot of questions in Cleveland will need to be answered first, though. 



2. FULL COMMANDO (Tim) (10-4) [2] [Pre-season Rank: 4]

I’m just hoping for some Jaylen Daniels magic (unlikely against Philly Week 16), and maybe the surprising emergence of a backup RB or something. Like I’ve said before, winning Regular Season Champ was my main goal (actually, my main goal starting the season was to not repeat Sacko), so the rest of this is icing on the cake. I do think my half of the playoff bracket is disproportionately weighted, though. I do think Eric, Luke, and I have the three best teams in the playoffs, and only one of us will be able to make it to the final game.

Keeper Projections: Jayden Daniels ($5), Trey McBride ($11)

I was initially going to keep Jayden Daniels and Jonathon Brooks, but now that Brooks re-tore his ACL, my replacement pick has wavered between McBride at $11, McLaurin at $14, Pacheco at $21, or Jayden Reed at $5. Right now I’ll settle on securing my onesie positions, but I could see that changing if the Daniels-McLaurin stack ends up winning me the championship.



3. Spider Pig (Luke) (8-6) [5] [Pre-season Rank: 11]

Luke has the chance to go from Yahoo auto draft disaster to David-ing Eric’s Goliath on his path to THREE-peating. That was seemingly unthinkable just 6 weeks ago when his team was 3-5 coming off a 5-game losing streak. Saquon is still going strong and Puka has returned healthy, but his “others” (Sutton, Addison, Najee, Tua, and even Charbonnet) are peaking at the right time. Please someone prevent Luke from 3-peating.

Keeper Projections: Saquon Barkley ($50), Puka Nacua ($25)

I think Luke has no choice but to keep Saquon at $50 after this season. You might be able to make an argument for the 2nd keeper as Courtland Sutton at $5 or Jordan Addison at $1, but Puka at $25 still seems like a good deal, so I say Luke ends up keeping the same players again. 



4. Maybabyboo (Laura) (8-6) [4] [Pre-season Rank: 10]

Laura’s team was on some shaky ground in Weeks 12-13, but an impressive Week 14 performance has put her team on more solid ground moving forward. Laura’s hoping Guerendo can stay healthy and play, but I think Laura can buy another week without him against a struggling Jeff Lin’s team in the 1st round of the playoffs. Props to Laura for making the playoffs in her first season back! Especially given that I had ranked her team 10th in the pre-season..

Keeper Projections: Chase Brown ($6)

Mixon and Cook have both cooled a bit as of late, but I think they might still be good deals at $28 and $33, respectively. However, I think the steal at RB for Laura would be Chase Brown at $6, especially if he continues to emerge as Cincinnati’s top RB. I’m not a big fan of keeping Kelce at $25, or Caleb Williams at $5, and Laura’s WRs probably won’t be worth their prices, either. Maybe Zay Flowers at $17 or Darnell Mooney at $5, but even those come with question marks. So I think Laura just goes with the big steal at Chase Brown and relies on the draft again.



5. It’s Bo Time (Andrew) (9-5) [3] [Pre-season Rank: 7]

All of Andrew’s chips fell into place perfectly to win him a 1st-round bye in the playoffs in spite of having the 2nd worst Points For amongst playoff teams. His team will need that week off, as it hasn’t looked the greatest in the past 3 or so weeks. He does have the easier half of the bracket to go against, facing the winner of Laura v. Jeff Lin to get to the finals, so that will be in his favor. He also has pretty favorable playoff matchups for many of his key players, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Andrew ended up playing for the championship.

Keeper Projections: Bo Nix ($5), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($3)

Bo Nix at $5 is intriguing. That’s probably a better deal than Kyler Murray at $9. If Derrick Henry can produce similar numbers next year, his value at $59 is a steal, but age is a number that doesn’t get smaller. Part of me thinks Andrew is done with AJ Brown, so even at $48 he won’t be worth keeping. And I think Andrew might end up going with value youth players, so give me Bo Nix at $5 and Jaxon Smith-Njigba at $3.



6. Love thy Naber (Jeff Lin) (9-5) [7] [Pre-season Rank: 3]

Jeff Lin lucked his way into the playoffs this year - finishing 8th in Points For - but a playoff berth is a playoff berth. The season starts anew now. Like Jeff mentioned, if Josh Allen can do Josh Allen things again, then he’s got a chance. Malik Nabers has a favorable matchup, and maybe Sincere McCormick will be the waiver pickup that changes Jeff’s season. It seems like a stretch, but he’s better off than the teams below him.

Keeper Projections: Breece Hall ($43), Malik Nabers ($26)

After Josh Allen’s Week 14 performance, Jeff may want to consider keeping Allen at QB, especially if he helps Jeff make a deep playoff run. Something tells me he’ll go with some bigger names at RB and WR instead: Breece Hall at $43 and Malik Nabers at $26. JJ McCarthy at $5 may not be a terrible option, though.



7. I am not sacko! (Jeff Chen) (7-7) [6] [Pre-season Rank: 12]

Jeff Chen didn’t make the playoffs, but he had a better-than-expected season. He didn’t get much respect from me for much of the season, but props to a .500 season when I thought his team would be in Sacko contention. He also took the high ground and actually started Burrow, maybe partly so he could avoid a losing season to tarnish his (lack of) dyNASTYc record. 

Keeper Projections: Nico Collins ($18), JK Dobbins ($11)

Nico is a lock - I know he’s Jeff’s new crush. Then he’ll have to decide between David Montgomery at $12, JK Dobbins at $11, George Kittle at $11, Joe Burrow at $8 or Drake Maye at $36. I’m tempted to go Drake Maye at $36 because Jeff always seems to do the thing that no one else would think to do, and that I least expect him to do. But I feel like Jeff also has a thing for JK, so we’ll go that route instead. Don’t be surprised if Jeff pulls another fast one on us, though. $36 for Drake Maye - so slick.



8. Just Didn’t Catch D’Achane (Haji) (5-9) [8] [Pre-season Rank: 5]

Haji just had bad luck this season. If seeding was based on Points For alone, he would have made the playoffs. But his matchups were just unlucky - almost always catching people on their high weeks and not being able to capitalize on his team’s scoring ability. Parting ways with Breece was probably emotionally taxing as well, but at least he has a cheap Achane to hold on to for Keepers.

Keeper Projections: Justin Jefferson ($59), De’Von Achane ($16)

With Chuba improving in leaps in bounds and Jonathon Brooks out for at least another year, Haji has gotten a steal for Hubbard at $6 this year, and it’ll be a steal next year too. Achane at $16 is also a steal, which I think is part of the reason his trade with Jeff Lin was so appealing - it’ll be hard for Haji to choose between those 2 RBs for their value. I think Justin Jefferson at $59 will also be a good value, but perhaps not as good as Brandon Aiyuk or Jauan Jennings at $5, depending on how things play out in SF. Of course, Haji will have his pick of young WR options after loading up on Keon Coleman and Rome Odunze in the last waiver cycle. But as of now, I think he’ll settle on Achane and Jefferson.



9. Run It Back! (Gabs) (6-8) [9] [Pre-season Rank: 2]

I had high expectations for Gabs’s team to start the season, but he could just never find his groove at QB and WR. Gabs had a pretty forgettable end to the season, but he’s set up for future success with all the young talent on his roster.

Keeper Projections: Brian Thomas Jr ($4), Brock Bowers ($12) 

Gabs actually has some really good Keeper options. He went young this year in the draft, hitting on Brian Thomas Jr at $4, Bucky Irving at $1, and Brock Bowers at $12. Add a Tyrone Tracy Jr waiver pickup at $5, and that’s some promising youth at great value. Of course, we don’t know where Tee Higgins will end up next season, but I would say Gabs has good enough value in Brian Thomas Jr where I would guess that will be one of his keepers next year. The other one will likely be Bowers, given how dominant he’s been at TE in his rookie season. It’s hard to give up Bucky Irving at $1, though. And I didn’t even mention Jonathan Taylor at $36, Kenneth Walker at $27, or Garrett Wilson at $58.



10. Terrific Tortoises (David) (5-9) [10] [Pre-season Rank: 6]

Hindsight is 20/20, but David’s draft was probably a little top-heavy with a lot of capital invested in CMC and Amon-Ra, neither of which paid off. He couldn’t build much depth after spending all his draft money on those two and Jalen Hurts, and his lack of depth is probably what hamstrung him from being able to pivot from those disappointing superstars. Better luck next year, David. It was a rough one with injuries, heartaches, and frustrations galore for David, but he’s been a trooper through all of it. 

Keeper Projections: Rashee Rice ($5)

Perhaps David will have PTSD and not choose to keep Rashee Rice again. But I think that’s the way to go - $5 will be a steal for him next year. Something tells me David won’t be keeping CMC at $69, so that leaves Jalen Hurts at $24? Nick Chubb at $6? Tony Pollard at $4? It’s probably in David’s best interest to just start from almost scratch and only keep Rice.



11. 第六 (Abraham) (4-10) [11] [Pre-season Rank: 8]

Hail, the new Sacko! Abraham has been pretty quiet since officially winning Sacko, maybe he’s still in the denial stage of his grieving. The injuries were brutal. A 7-game losing streak to end the season was brutal. Sorry, Abraham. Don’t worry, next year will be better - it has to be!

Keeper Projections: Kyren Williams ($23)

Abraham will have some decisions to make. Kyren at $23 is a good deal. Jahmyr Gibbs at $60 is pricier, but my guess is he’ll still be a highly-drafted RB next year. Arguments could be made either way for London at $46, Olave at $30, and Godwin at $11, but maybe Abraham is so done with those players that he just wants to start with a clean slate. My guess is he settles on the value pick in Kyren at $23 over the better player in Gibbs at $60 and just goes from there.



12. choubacca (Aaron) (5-9) [12] [Pre-season Rank: 1]

I can’t believe I ranked Aaron’s team #1 pre-season and here we are. I’m still not 100% sure what happened besides major underperformance by his star players. Aaron still deserves this last spot, even if he technically avoided Sacko - his team was last in Points For and had to rely on luck and the mercy of Jeff Chen in order to get by unscathed. Now the question moving forward is, does Aaron want to spend up to keep those underperforming star players?

Keeper Projections: None

Aaron’s players will probably be overpriced come draft time next year: Tyreek at $66, CeeDee at $55, Rachaad White at $26, James Conner at $13, Sam LaPorta at $16, Baker Mayfield at $5. I don’t think he keeps anyone, although that seems very unlike Aaron. So if anyone, maybe he keeps CeeDee? Nah.


Wednesday, December 4, 2024

Week 13 #PowerRankings


1. HonkyTonkMcConkeyTime (Eric) (8-5) [1]

Eric’s team continues to look unstoppable. I honestly don’t know how he racked up 5 losses this season, given that his Points For is nearly 130 points more than the next highest team. His team has had a top-3 score in the 9 out of 13 weeks, and has only scored in the bottom half in one week. His players have pretty manageable playoff schedules, minus Lamar’s tough matchup against Pittsburgh in Week 16. So unless Eric’s team somehow stumbles that week or gets an unlucky matchup, all indicators point to his team winning it all.

PANTHERS %: 100%

SUXS %: 0%



2. FULL COMMANDO (Tim) (10-3) [3]

I feel like my team is peaking at a good time. While many of my starters are on bye this week, the pressure is off for a little bit now that I’ve secured the Regular Season Championship and a 1st-round bye in the playoffs. I’m well aware of the Commanders’ tough matchups during the FF playoffs, but I’m going to have to ride with them and hope for the best.

PANTHERS %: 100%

SUXS %: 0%



3. It’s Bo Time (Andrew) (8-5) [5]

Andrew won a nail-biter in Week 13, securing a playoff spot and also keeping his team in the running for a 1st round bye. He has the pieces necessary to go deep into the playoffs - Kyler has an easy rest-of-season schedule (if he can play up to par), and Bo’s schedule isn’t horrible either. Njoku and DJ Moore’s playoff schedules are pretty favorable, and both have been productive as of late. Derrick Henry should continue to put up points as the weather gets colder, too. So I wouldn’t be surprised if Andrew makes a run for the championship.

PANTHERS %: 100%

SUXS %: 0%



4. Maybabyboo (Laura) (7-6) [2]

Laura had a tough matchup against Eric, and it seems like her team has taken a step back in the past few weeks. Even with a loss to Gabs in Week 14, she should still be able to secure a playoff spot (unless Jeff Chen wins and scores 56 more points than her.. Or if Gabs scores 73 more points than her). But I don’t love her players’ playoff schedules - especially Joe Mixon, who she’s relied on for much of the season. Her QB situation is also not great, having to decide between Purdy and Caleb won’t be fun moving forward. Thielen may be a surprise boom play in the playoffs, and the Guerendo pickup may end up being the saving grace for her team. So it seems like a mixed bag for Laura heading into the postseason.

PANTHERS %: 99%

SUXS %: 0%



5. Spider Pig (Luke) (7-6) [6]

Luke lost in a close one to Andrew in Week 13, but he’s got a winnable matchup against David to finish the season, which should all but secure his playoff spot. Even with a loss, Jeff Chen will need to win and score 79 more points to push Luke out of the playoffs. Unlikely to happen. Luke’s QB situation is still a little tenuous going into the playoffs, but with the help of Saquon, anything is possible. Najee has a pretty bad playoff schedule, though, so Luke’s other pieces will have to step up their games to support Saquon if Luke wants to make a deep playoff run. Cortland Sutton and Puka have been solid as of late, so it’s definitely possible.

PANTHERS %: 99.5%

SUXS %: 0%



6. I am not sacko! (Jeff Chen) (6-7) [7]

Jeff Chen needs a win this week, and either: 1. Laura to lose and score 56 fewer points, or 2. Luke to lose and score 79 fewer points, or some other weird permutations that probably won’t happen. Jeff is set up for the win, but whether those other factors can play out to his favor is yet to be seen. Joe Burrow could have a monster game against Dallas, Westbrook-Ikhine has been scoring TDs left and right, Mike Evans can go off on any given week, David Montgomery is as reliable as they get, and Kittle should benefit from a weakened SF run game. So there’s still some hope, but the stars will really have to align for Jeff to sneak into the playoffs. 

PANTHERS %: 1%

SUXS %: 0%



7. Love thy Naber (Jeff Lin) (8-5) [8]

Jeff Lin got a favorable matchup in Week 13 against the lowest-scoring (Haji’s) team. So while Jeff got the win he needed to secure a playoff spot, he’s been in the bottom half of weekly scoring for each of the past 4 weeks. That Josh Allen self-pass / lateral play also skews those numbers a bit in Jeff’s favor. Jeff’s Points For is lower than the next three teams sitting outside the playoff race (Jeff Chen, Gabs, and Haji). However, Malik Nabers, MHJ, and Breece Hall all have super easy playoff schedules, and Aaron Jones and Hockenson have pretty decent matchups as well. So whether those players (especially MHJ and Breece) can step up in those opportunities may decide Jeff’s playoff fate. It’ll also be interesting to see if Deebo gets utilized more now with the loss of CMC and Mason - I still get the sense that his injuries are hindering his production.

PANTHERS %: 100%

SUXS %: 0%



8. Just Didn’t Catch D’Achane (Haji) (5-8) [4]

It’s been a tough season for Haji. He just couldn’t string together enough wins to make a push for the playoffs, even though he’s 5th in Points For. It just seemed like his high weeks were very high and his low weeks were very low. Kudos to him for remaining active until the end, but unfortunately this season comes to a close for him. Now all he can do is play disruptor for Sacko contention. Oh, and try to load up on potential Keepers (I see those waiver pickups for Aiyuk, Keon, Diontae, and Abanikanda).

PANTHERS %: 0%

SUXS %: 0%



9. Run It Back! (Gabs) (6-7) [9]

So you’re saying there’s a chance!? No, not really. But for statistical integrity, Gabs mathematically still has a chance of making the playoffs (a la the Yahoo obligatory 1%) - all he needs to do is beat Laura by 72.5 points this week. Stranger things have happened, I guess? I actually wouldn’t be surprised if Gabs won this week, but 72.5 points is a pretty big margin to overcome. Who knows, maybe Will Levis will have his breakout game against an easy Jacksonville D, Bowers and Tyrone Trace go for 30+ each in favorable matchups, and Cinci D pick-6s Cooper Rush twice.

PANTHERS %: 0.5%

SUXS %: 0%



10. Terrific Tortoises (David) (5-8) [10]

I feel bad for CMC, but feel worse for David. Given how poorly the season has gone for David, he’s taken it in stride and adapted nicely as the season progressed, including his Jordan Mason pickup and his bet on Indy WRs. Rashee Rice will still be a good Keeper candidate for next year, and at least David is (fairly) safe from Sacko contention.

PANTHERS %: 0%

SUXS %: 1%



11. 第六 (Abraham) (4-9) [11] 

Abraham’s team really has taken a plunge since Week 8 that it could never recover from. His chances against Jeff Chen this week are not looking great, either. I don’t think I realized how bad his team was until I looked at this week’s matchup - Abraham is starting Xavier Worthy and Dontavian Wicks at WR.. eek. So Abraham will have to hope Aaron loses his game, or else it’s 5K time. And according to SUXS, Abraham’s got slightly better chances at Sacko than Aaron.

PANTHERS %: 0%

SUXS %: 52%



12. choubacca (Aaron) (4-9) [12]

Aaron’s team has been the epitome of underperformance this season. However, he may be spared from Sacko this season if he can somehow pull out one final win against a faltering Haji’s team. Aaron certainly has the pieces to do it, it’s just a question of whether those pieces will show up.

PANTHERS %: 0%

SUXS %: 47%