Beginning of Week 3 Thoughts in GIFs

Hi Friends-

I've got some extra time on my hands for the next two weeks, so I figured what the heck... I'll update the blog. Hoooooray!

- Jeff

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The past week summed up in 10 memes...

1) When I look at this week's waiver wire history and realize Andrew has cornered the TE market:

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2) When I look at Abraham's waiver wire pick-ups/bench and realize he has a total of 7 WRs:

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3) I guess it's not all that surprising to see that Andrew (11) and Abraham (10) lead the league in waiver wire moves:

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4) My reaction to winning Fitzmagic in the Week 2 waiver wire sweepstakes:


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I would be lying though if I said that I didn't have some doubts about him...

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5) Wait, Aaron didn't play the waiver wire this week???

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Must be because he's too busy running a Y combinator-backed tech startup! Congrats A-aron!

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6) Anybody else scared of Gabs's team?

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Yep, I thought so.

7) Good to see Tim and Laura bounce back from crummy Week 1s . Welcome to the 100 point club mi amigos!

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8) Aaron, what happened in Week 2?

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9) Eric, how old/bad is Lesean McCoy these days?

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More importantly, why do you keep playing him?

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10) Last but not least, this sums up my thoughts on Luke's team:

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I think it's safe to say... "Jeff Luke, your team sucks".

In the wise words of Gabs, maybe you should "just fold" Luke.



Best of luck in Week 3 folks!

TrendZ & The Art of Auction Drafting

Now that we have 4 seasons of auction drafting under our belts, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at each manager's past tendencies and how they have played out.  I think it's safe to say we have a decent feel for how each person will behave in the draft, and even if someone enters the draft determined to break the mold of his or her auction draft history, behavioral tendencies and personalities will inevitably kick in under the high-stress, adrenaline-rush of the experience known as the auction draft.  So without further ado, a quick historical look + personality analysis.  This could get juicy.


1. Go Big Or Go Home

It is exactly what it sounds like - It's that YOLO, live it up, go big or go home mentality where a manager is willing to spend the big bucks (moniez) on the big bucks (men).

Aaron
Without needing to blink, we all know Aaron owns this category.  He spends essentially all of his money on 3 players, and can no longer afford to spend any more than $5 on any other player afterwards.  Strictly speaking, 2014 was a break from this trend, since he spent all his money on 4 players instead of 3, but that was our first auction draft season:

2014: Jimmy Graham-$54, Dez Bryant-$52, Zac Stacy-$35 (Anyone remebz who dat is??), CJ Spiller-$30 (Total-$171)
2015: Le'Veon-$69, DeMarco-$53, Andrew Luck-$44 (Total-$166)
2016: Antonio Brown-$66, David Johnson-$66, Le'Veon-$50 (Total-$182)
2017: David Johnson-$70, Antonio Brown-$64, Julio Jones-$52 (Total-$186)

How has it played out for Aaron?  Mixed results.  2014 saw Aaron in 11th place, 2015 brought him up to 9th, and then he managed to finish 2nd by the end of the regular season in both 2016 and 2017.  What changed?  Should he not have spent $35 on Zac Stacy in 2014 (but seriously, who is that??), or spent so much on a TE in Jimmy Graham? Should he have not chosen a QB as one of his top 3 in 2015, even though Andrew Luck was on the upswing (He didn't even draft a QB in 2017, and ended up with Kirk Cousins... after dropping Carson Wentz)?  Does he need to spend more than $186 on his top 3 players ($188 is the max you can spend on 3 players, btw)???  Who knows.  But don't be surprised when Aaron blows all his moniez on Le'Veon, Gurley, and Antonio Brown come draft day.  Someone's gotta spend the big bucks.

Andrew 
While Andrew doesn't go all-out on 3 or more players like Aaron does, Andrew goes all out on one player every year, and has been the highest bidder each year for his top player.  $74 was the highest paid amount for any player in 2014, and Andrew dished it out for Jamaal Charles.  In 2015, Andrew landed AP for $69 (tied for highest bid with Le'Veon for $69).  In 2016, $67 was the highest bid, which put Gurley on Andrew's team.  And in 2017, Le'Veon went to Andrew for $78 (highest bid of all-time).  Unlike Aaron, he then supplements the rest of his draft with a combination of role players and young potential.  While it worked out nicely in 2015 (1st) and 2017 (3rd in regular season), in the years when those big picks didn't pan out, he ended up 12th place in 2014 and 11th place in 2016.  I'm honestly just not sure what to make of his draft style, though.  I mean, this was the same guy who drafted Jordy Nelson in 2015 for $38 AFTER he tore his ACL and was out for the season, and STILL won the league that year.

I don't know.


2. Too Rich For My Blood

These managers are the conservative, save-it-for-a-rainy-day, index-funding, never-go-all-in-with-Ace-King-off-suit-because-it-might-look-good-but-it-never-wins type of managers.  When players are going for more than $50, forget about it, because no one is worth a quarter of my budget.

Justina
For the first three years, Justina was at the far end of the spectrum in terms of auction money conservation.  She ended 2014 with $20 unused by the end of the draft, then tried to make up for it in 2015 and 2016 by finishing with no unused money, but only because she spent $35 and $22 on her last picks (Connor Barth and Brock Osweiler, respectively).  2017 saw a change in draft strategy - showing that she could spend moniez when needed, she balanced her spending quite well - and look, she ended up winning the season.

Jeff
Jeff belongs in the "Too Rich For My Blood" group, but has this strange version of "I Want That" mentality (see below, also see Laura) - one that only focuses on potential breakout / sleeper picks.  What he does is saves up his moniez for these sleeper picks, then ends up WAY overspending for them.  Examples?  Cordarrelle Patterson for $19 in 2014; Nelson Agholor for $24 in 2015 (his rookie year); Josh Gordon for $15 in 2016 (who scored zero points that season); and Martavis Bryant for $34 (...yes, $34) in 2017.  Funny thing is, he and I usually have similar players in sight, so we go into this mini-bidding war, which he always wins because his will to obtain these players is greater than mine.  To his credit, he finished the regular season in first place in 2014, but has been mediocre at best ever since then.

Tim

No need to analyze my drafts - they generally stink big ones, and it's almost always because I save up too much moniez to start with, get into dumb mini-bidding wars with Jeff (see Jeff's blurb above), and end up with a bunch of role-playing mediocrity on my team.  I lucked out in 2015 when the Cam and the Panthers decided to be awesome, but I've always scraped through the season to try to get wins - definitely with no help from my drafts.

3. I Want That

Some managers have their eyes set on a player or two and do what they can for those players.  

Eric
I didn't realize this until I started doing research for this post, but Eric has drafted LeSean McCoy in every single auction draft we've done - 4 straight years - starting in 2014.  He has also drafted Russell Wilson 3 straight times, beginning in 2015.  In terms of getting to choose whoever you want as a benefit of the Auction Draft, Eric has taken full advantage of it.  Sometimes I wonder, however, if Eric is stuck in the past, with all the old players he tends to draft (Frank Gore is older than all of us, Marshawn is pretty close).  But when he likes someone, he sticks with them.

The past two seasons haven't been nice to him, seeing as he was Sacko last year, and didn't even make playoffs the year before.  Maybe he needs to get some young bloodz in 2018 to freshen things up a little.  Or just stick with Shady and some other aging players (might I suggest Tshimanga Biakabatuka or Rodney Peete?).

Gabs
What surprises you find with some research.  I thought Gabs's pet player was Devonta Run-like-a-Freeman, or maybe Seattle's Defense, but surprise, surprise - guess who Gabs has drafted for 4 consecutive years?  Eddie Lacy.  I mean, why even play in a keeper league when you can just keep drafting the same players every year?  Amirite Comic Sans?  Gabs is not afraid to spend what he wants on who he wants, either - Eddie Lacy was his top-money-getter for 3 consecutive years ($65 in 2014, $68 in 2015, and $47 in 2016).  Gabs seems to fix his sights on a few players, spending what he wants on them, and then fills in the blanks.  More examples: Devonta Freeman - $39 in 2016, $65 in 2017; Aaron Rodgers - $37 in 2016, $38 in 2017; Seattle Defense for $4 in both 2016 and 2017.  Gabs is a creature of habit.  It won him a championship in 2016

...but also saw him in 10th, 12th, and 10th place in 2017, 2015, and 2014, respectively.

4. Balanced

These managers seem to have the ability to curb their itch to spend big, but also even out their spending between a handful of big names and a good number of "others." 

David
David's draft pattern has been overall rather balanced, minus in 2015 when he spent $67 on Marshawn and essentially ended up with $15 left over (that season ended with him barely making the playoffs in 8th place).  Otherwise, David has done a good job spending some bigger dollars on a few players, while saving enough to get some middle-of-the-road players for middle-of-the-road prices.  It seemed to work well in 2014, when he ended up 2nd in the playoffs.  But the past two seasons have unfortunately seen David stuck in mediocrity (5th in 2016 and 2017, although he came in 3rd last year in the playoffs). 

Luke
To my flawed eye test, Luke's drafts have been pretty balanced throughout the years.  He went a little spend-crazy the first year with $70 on AP, but has gradually mellowed out, making 2017 his most balanced draft to date.  Ezekiel Elliott at $45 and Gurley at $36 were steals, which gave him more than enough money to play with to finish the draft.  Not to mention, 2017 was his most successful season of the 4 - finishing 1st in the regular season, and 2nd in the playoffs (thank you Justina).  I'm not sure what clicked for Luke last season, but if he can find that magic formula again aka his "intel" then he may be able to further extend his dyNASTYc dominance.

5. I Don't Know AKA Miscellaneous

Abraham

Abraham's rankings over the years have gradually been on the decline.  2014 was his best season to date, as he finished 3rd in the regular season, but that showing was followed by 5th, 10th, and 11th places.  I honestly couldn't figure out his drafting style.  Maybe he just likes to spend lots of money on players that end up sucking?  Of course, I mean that in the nicest way possible...  2014 was his best year, and while he got Antonio Brown for $36, he spent $60 on Montee Ball.  The following year saw Abraham spending $55 on a declining Jamaal Charles, followed by $50 on a child-beating Adrian Peterson the next year, capped off with $43 on an Andrew Luck-less TY Hilton last year.  Hindsight is always 50/50

...but he's going to have to make better draft decisions if he doesn't want to (actually) land the Sacko this season.

Laura

To be fair, the sample size is too small to evaluate Laura's drafting habits, but from what I can tell, I'd say she's got a mixed strategy between the conservative folk (me, Justina, Jeff) and the "I Want That" folk (Eric, Gabs) - she's not willing to spend big bucks on the big names, but she has a few targets that she'll be willing to stretch for if she feels like things are getting desperate.  Why else would she dish out $50 for Jay Ajayi?

Revisiting the dyNASTYc rankings

As a follow up to last year's blog post, here are the updated dyNASTYc rankings.

1. Luke [1 - last year's rank]
Adding a 2nd place finish to his 14-year resume of 3 championships further solidifies Luke's dominance in our league.  I hate to admit it, especially since he's been out of the top 3 in the 4 years prior, but Luke will be on the upswing if he carries this momentum into 2018.  Don't forget, this was the guy who won the regular season last year with a killer Gurley + Elliott combo.  As I hope to chronicle in a future blog post, his draft last season ended up being like this:

aka FLAWLESS VICTORY (#Shoutout2005) but also aka... I think he probably cheated.  And also aka Aaron plz draft for him again.  Or aka Yahoo Autodraft aka V.Putin & Co.


2. Gabs [2]
Two championships in four years is an impressive feat, enough to keep him at #2 in the dyNASTYc rankings, but Gabs didn't even make the playoffs last year.  The eye test and recency bias - and his questionable loyalty to certain players that have treated him well in the past (Devonta Run-like-a-Freeman) - would bring him down a notch in my book, but the numbers don't lie.


3. Justina [4]
With another championship under her belt, Justina jumps up in the rankings.  The biggest reason why she didn't climb all the way up to #2 was that her championship back in 2011 was in a 10-team league.  Although 2011 was a tough year to win, with renewed interest in FF at a high after the well-documented Dark Ages of FF, the fact that Gabs won 2 championships in 12-team leagues tips the numbers in his favor.  And to be fair, the questionability of Justina's loyalty to certain players exceeds that of Gabs's (Keenan-Kick-It Allen and less so for DeAndre 1-800-HOPKINS-BLING).

The fact that Justina won last year after BARELY making it into the playoffs as a 6th seed is just as infuriating as it is impressive.  But it also gave her the rights to determine Eric's team name throughout the 2018 season.  Speaking of which...


4. Eric [3]
I think Eric will try to forget last year's debacle of a year and see if he can climb up the dyNASTYc ladder.  His only championship was the inaugural season, and the fact that he's finished 3rd place in 2 of the last 5 seasons gives him a slight edge over Andrew, but being the first official Sacko of FFNUTHANG isn't really how dyNASTYs want to be remembered.  OR THIS

You're welcome, FF NU THANGers, for the specialized Sacko punishment - a combination of two of FF NU THANG's favorite things - A GIF MEME.  As tempting as it may be, try not to watch too many loops of it, though - I can speak from personal experience.  I won't be responsible for any GIF MEME-related sickness.  But to be fair, this is probably how Eric felt all of last season, being 4th overall in points scored, but still ending up with only 3 wins all season.


5. Andrew [5]
Andrew had all the pieces last year to make a run.  I basically gifted him his best RB for the first half of the season (nope, still not over it).

But props to him that he's in the top half after only 4 years in the league.

The best of the rest are below - the teams that have never won a championship.  To them I say, better luck this year.  Especially to #6.

6. Tim [6]
7. Laura [7]
8. David Li [8]
9. Aaron [10]
10. Jeff [11]
11. Abraham [12]
12. Steve [NR]