Wednesday, July 5, 2017

A study of all things dyNASTYc

I'll start by saying I'm loving these emoji-filled Venmos I'm getting.  Justina and David are still top in terms of emoji-skillz, though:
I love that David is already giving himself a medal.  That's the mindset of a champion.  And rainbows are cool too.  Oh, but Justina knows about that Unicorn power. 

But Jeff?  I can't even...

THEN WHY DON"T YOU GO MARRY HIM ALREADY JEFF.  TOM BRADY IS THE 
THE WURST, JEFF.  HE"S THE WURST.

Ok, now that that's out of the way, I present to you, ladies and gents, a power rankings of sorts: FF NU THANG dyNASTY POWER RANKINGS.

"What is that?" You might ask.  I shall explain.  After Eric sparked a discussion about his championship season, it got me looking back at our league's history.  Since the inaugural season in 2004, 5 managers have played all 13 seasons (me, Eric, Luke, Justina, David Lin), and 3 have played 12 season (Gabs, Jeff, Aaron).  I will first make a quick acknowledgement that 13 consecutive seasons is impressive.  Secondly, one would think that throughout the years, there would be a manager who would try to set him (or her) self apart from the rest of the managers to establish a fantasy football dyNASTY.  So I looked back at the final results from all of the previous seasons, beginning in 2004 to figure out which manager managed to do so.  The process is outlined below.

:
The Process:

  1. I recorded the teams that finished first through fourth AFTER the playoffs, because the playoff champion is the true champion.  Even if a team finished first during the regular season, if that team fell in the first round of the playoffs, that team was not the real champ.
  2. I gave each of these teams a weighted score.  This weighted score was based on their final rank and how many other teams were in the league that year.  For example, the first place finisher in a 12-team league would get 100 points.  2nd place - 33, 3rd place - 10, and 4th place - 3.  If you think this is arbitrary, then you are somewhat right.  My reasoning was that it's about a third as impressive winning 2nd than it is winning 1st.  Whatever.  In a 10-team league, these numbers would be decreased by roughly 80% (not as arbitrary, because 10/12 is roughly 83%).  In an 8-team league, the number was decreased by 60%.  If someone placed 5th or lower, I didn't consider that impressive, so zero points were awarded across the board for 5th and below.
  3. I added all of these numbers up over the span of 13 years, and in the event of a tie-breaker, gave the upper hand to whoever had been in the league the longest (we're talking dyNASTY here, not one-hit wonder). And, voila:

FF NU THANG dyNASTY POWER RANKINGS

12. Abraham
Highlights: 2014 - 5th place
Lowlights: 2013 and 2016 - 10th place
There really isn't much to highlight here, and this was one of the no-brainer picks.  I didn't need Joel Embiid for this one.  Even though Abraham has only been in the league for 4 seasons, he has yet to finish in the Top 4.  He's got a lot of catching up to do before he even gets close to becoming dyNASTYc.

11. Jeff
Highlights: 2010 - 2nd place
Lowlights: 2015 - 11th place
This one took me by surprise, especially since Jeff has had a long track history with the league.  He is one of three managers that have been with the league all but one season (he skipped out 2009), which means he has had many more shots at winning the championship than others who are ranked higher than him.  Historically, Jeff has always landed in the middle by the time the season ends.  His highest finish was in 2010, when he got 2nd (in an 8-team league...).  Next highest is 2013, when he came in 4th.  Then he's got 2 seasons finishing 6th, 3 seasons finishing 7th, and 2 seasons finishing 8th.  That's mediocrity at its finest, and definitely isn't synonymous with dyNASTYc, unfortunately.  FWIW, IMO, Jeff makes up for it with his blogging prowess, LOL, KTHXBAI.


10. Aaron
Highlights: 2009, 2011, 2016 - 3rd place
Lowlights: 2004 and 2014 - 11th place; 2008 - 10th place (last)
Another surprise, seeing how Aaron has been in the league as many years as Jeff has.  But if you look closely at his managing history, you'll find the highest he's ever finished was 3rd place.  Granted, he's accomplished the feat 3 times, but his next best finish was 4th in 2012, followed by a less-than-average 7th in 2006, and three 8th place finishes.  From just my anectodal recollection, it seems like Aaron tends to start each season invested, involved, and on fire, but just hasn't been able to sustain that to a championship.  Or even second place.

9. Duke
Highlights: 2016 - 2nd place
Lowlights: 2013 - 11th place
Seeing as how Duke probably cares the least about our league than anyone else in it right now, 9th seems to be a pretty generous ranking.  Especially since he's only been in the league for 4 years.  Just looking at the highlights and lowlights, it would seem that Duke's team is on par with Jeff's, yet he is ranked 2 spots higher.  If you failed to read the process outlined above, I will explain.  Duke's 2nd place finish came just last season, in a 12-team league with money on the line.  Jeff's 2nd place finish came in 2010, in an 8-team league, during the oft-referenced Fantasy dark ages (Lin, 2013).  Therefore, Duke's 2nd place finish is much more impressive than Jeff's.  What about Aaron?  2009 was part of the aforementioned Fantasy dark ages, so winning 3rd for Aaron was just one notch above getting a participation trophy.  Plus, you don't build dyNASTYes by winning 3rd all the time.  Just ask the Clippers.

8. David Li
Highlights: 2014 - 2nd place
Lowlights: 2011 - 9th place
The Tortoise has a 2nd place finish to brag about, but after 6 seasons in the league, hasn't come away with much more than that.  His worst season was in 2011, when he finished 9th in a 10-team league, but otherwise, he's finished between 4th and 6th the remaining 4 seasons.  This was a situation where David and Duke had the same score, but David was ranked higher as a result of being in the league longer.  As I mentioned in my previous post, I think he's got it in him this season, though.  Pressure's on.

7. Laura
Highlights: 2004 and 2008 - 2nd place; 2007 - 3rd place
Lowlights: 2005 - 12th place; 2012 - 10th place (last)
Laura's back in the league, and while some people may have forgotten how she fared in the years before she left, the numbers don't lie.  Two 2nd place finishes and a 3rd place finish during the earlier years of our league gives Laura a leg up against these other managers.  I will note that 2007 and 2008 were 10-team-league years, so that puts a small asterisk next to those seasons, but her resume isn't too shabby.  She has had two disappointing last-place-finishing seasons, the most recent one being her last season with us (2012 was a 10-team league), but I'm sure that bad taste in her mouth will fuel her this season to build on the dyNASTYc foundation she established at the genesis of our league.

6. Tim
Highlights: 2005, 2007, and 2015 - 2nd place
Lowlights: 2013 - 12th place; 2014 - 10th place; 2009 and 2010 - 8th place (last)
With the numbers to justify it, I lead the pack of non-first place finishers in my quest for building an FF NU THANG dyNASTY.  Three second place finishes (One of which was ruined by the dumb Falcons who also ruined the Panthers perfect season #neverforget.  Andrew had wet his bed multiple times that week leading up to the championship because he knew he was in for a whooping.) have paved the way for my teams to be just good enough to be not quite good enough.  It's also kind of sad that I'm the only team without a championship that has been with the league all 13 seasons.  I've blamed it on a lot of things, but we all know it's because the Patriots are the .  They are to blame for pretty much everything good in the football world.

5. Andrew
Highlights: 2015 - 1st place
Lowlights: 2014 - 12th place; 2016 - 11th place
It pains me greatly to see Andrew this high up.  I bet even Andrew is like
Mainly because his highlights and lowlights are his ONLY lights.  As in, he's only been in the league for 3 years, and we're saying he's more dyNASTYc than Odoyle Rules the Adeline's College Fund Unicorn Queen?!?!?!  Just cuz he got a ring now he think he all that.  Look at his other two seasons - last and second to last.  Infurlinatering.  But the numbers don't lie.  His 1st place win in a 12-team league the first season we had buy-ins was impressive.  What's more impressive: He freaking paid $38 for an already-torn-ACL-Jordy-Nelson in the draft and STILL won the league.  Still not over it.

4. Justina
Highlights: 2011 - 1st place; 2010 and 2013 - 3rd place
Lowlights: 2004 - 12th place
Surprisingly, the numbers had Justina and Andrew tied.  Justina's 1st place win was in a 10-team league, while Andrew's was in a 12-team league.  However, Justina's 3rd place finishes and long history with the league give her dyNASTYc building much more legitimacy.  She's also cooler than Andrew.

3. Eric
Highlights: 2004 - 1st place; 2012 and 2014 - 3rd place
Lowlights: 2007 - 10th place (last)
Eric was the OG champion, back when we were all green and probably spent slightly more time on fantasy football than we would have liked to admit.  2004 was a 12-team league back then, and Eric pulled out a victory (even though he claims he had forgotten).  His two 3rd place finishes, not to mention his four 4th place finishes, catapults him ahead of the other former champions.  But is his team dyNASTYc?  While his only 1st place finish came over a decade ago, he hasn't done too shabby in recent history (minus last season).  He still has a bit of ground to cover, but a championship this year would definitely help his case.

2. Gabs
Highlights: 2013 and 2016 - 1st place; 2004 - 3rd place
Lowlights: 2015 - 12th place; 2006 - 11th place; 2011 - 10th place (last)
Gabs's fantasy career has been like a rollercoaster ride:
2004 - 3rd / 12
2005 - 10th / 12
2006 - 11th / 12
2007 - 4th / 10
2008 - 8th / 10
2009 - DNP
2010 - 7th / 8
2011 - 10th / 10
2012 - 6th / 10
2013 - 1st / 12
2014 - 10th / 12
2015 - 12th / 12
2016 - 1st / 12
8 seasons were below-average.  4 seasons were above-average.  2 of those 4 seasons were championship seasons.  Hence, the term borderline dyNASTYc.  Gabs has the shown the ability to build a dyNASTY, but his consistency has also been absolutely terrible.  Interestingly enough, I also calculated a different score based on how teams finished, giving values a linear relationship (for example, 1st gets 12 point, last gets 1 point, and highest cumulative score is the GOAT), which factored in terrible performances as much as excellent performances (and also awarded teams who had been in the league for longer).  That wasn't the interesting part, I just had to finish that sentence because it was getting way annoyingly long.  Interestingly enough, Gabs was 7th (out of the 12) on that list.  But IMO, that's a different conversation.  DyNASTYes are built on championships, not six 6th place finishes.

1. Luke
Highlights: 2005, 2007, 2012 - 1st place; 2011 - 2nd place; 2008 - 3rd place
Lowlights: 2006 - 12th place
It's hard to argue against this.  No matter how hard I tried, no matter what formula I used, Luke always came out on top.  Of all the managers that remain in our league, he's been clearly the most dominant.  I will take a moment to recognize Kobe Bean aka David Lin, who actually beat Luke out in the linear rankings that I described in Gabs's section.  But in the true dyNASTYc rankings, Luke beat out even the mighty Mamba.  The main reason was that two of David Lin's championships were during the Fantasy dark ages where our numbers dwindled to 8 teams, likely due to a plague of sorts.  Even though two of Luke's championships came during our 10-team years, his most impressive one - in my opinion - was during the season of the GOAT in-person live draft.  That was a legit season, and Luke won it rather convincingly (again, at my expense).  He's also garnered a 2nd place and 3rd place finish to round out his resume.  But as far as dyNASTYes in FF NU THANG are concerned, Luke's it.  Even though he hasn't won a championship in 5 years, he's still sits atop these rankings, and until someone makes a case for it, he might be up here for a while.


And for anyone who might be curious, the All-Time Rankings are below:

  1. Luke
  2. David Lin
  3. Gabs
  4. Eric
  5. Mike
  6. Justina
  7. Andrew
  8. Khoa
  9. Tim
  10. Laura
  11. David Li
  12. Duke
  13. Jen
  14. Aaron
  15. Jeff
  16. Lan
  17. Abraham
  18. Ming


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