A Study of Last Season's Draft

As we enter the third season of auction drafting, most of us have probably become familiar enough with the process to feel comfortable going in to draft day, but not all of us can rely on experience to help.  For example, I don't think Duke has actually been there for a full draft - and probably won't this season, either.  Luke also had to miss out last season, and for some reason still unknown to anyone alive on this planet, trusted Aaron / Yahoo / V.Putin to draft for him.  2017 will mark Laura's return to our league, and she has yet to dabble in the dark arts of the auction draft.  So needless to say, not everyone will be on the same playing field.

With that said, my feelings about the upcoming draft / season?

But before I look further into the future, I decided to take a look at the past, specifically at last season's draft.  I came up with this fancy algorithm / spreadsheet / magic that put a value on each pick of last season's draft.  I won't go into too much detail and lose all my readers, but basically, if someone paid top dollar for a player that ended up being a dud (for whatever reason - age, poor performance, injuries), then one could say that person overpaid for the player and that player was a poor value.  On the flip side, if someone paid next to nothing for a player who ended up having a breakout season, then that player was a great value.  I based this largely on how much was paid in comparison to how that player fared compared to other players in the same position.  Instead of trying to figure out who had a better draft blah blah, I just highlighted the best and worst picks of each team, to give us all fodder for smack talk come August 26th.  So without further ado, let's take a look at how well, and poorly, people drafted last season.  For ease of ordering, I just did things in alphabetical order by name.

Aaron

Good picks: David Johnson ($66 / 327.8, 2.00), Rishard Matthews ($1 / 146.5 / 4.4167)

So-so picks: Le'Veon Bell ($50 / 242.4, 1.00), Antonio Brown ($66 / 201.3, 0.6667)

Bad picks: None

Rishard Matthews actually had the highest value score for Aaron.  Aaron paid $1 for a top-12 WR last season, and that was valuable to Aaron, considering he had next to no buying power by that time in the draft.  Credit Aaron for landing the top RB by paying top-dollar for him - David Johnson was more than a worthy investment.  Aaron's other two big-money picks ended up being fairly good value picks, too.  Bad value picks for Aaron?  Surprisingly, he had none.  Since Aaron spent all his money on just a few players who ended up doing as expected or better, most of his draft consisted of $1 picks who really didn't have many expectations to live up to.

Abraham

Good picks: Jordy Nelson ($36 / 207.7, 6.50), Travis Kelce ($7 / 138, 4.00), Jimmy Graham ($1 / 124.3, 4.00)

So-so pick: Tom Brady ($13 / 312.56, 0.7273)

Bad picks: Adrian Peterson ($50 / 6, 0.1136), Sammy Watkins ($37 / 55, 0.1964)

Jordy Nelson finished as the 2nd highest scoring WR last year, and Abraham got him for a steal at $36, considering the top tier WRs were going in the $60-70 range.  Abraham was also stacked at TE, which was kind of useless until he managed to trade away Kelce for J.Stew and Tyrell Williams.  So only a little better than useless.  I'll just briefly mention that Brady was a slightly less-than-worthy pickup based on value.  As for Adrian Peterson, Abraham got a whopping 0.12 points per dollar he spent on the aging RB, while draining himself of a quarter of his total draft money.  Sammy Watkins was only marginally less disappointing.

Andrew

Good pick: Isaiah Crowell ($1 / 165.1, 2.9167)

So-so picks: Mike Ingram ($26 / 196.2, 1.44), Julian Edelman ($22 / 130.3, 0.9545), Greg Olsen ($23 / 127.3, 1.00)

Bad picks: Cam Newton ($38 / 292.26, 0.0526), Todd Gurley ($67 / 155.2, 0.0588)

I had to stretch to find a good pick for Andrew.  Some might say that luck played a part in Andrew maximizing on the $1 he spent on Isaiah Crowell.  Crowell ended up 12th in points among RBs, which is definitely a steal.  Feel free to go over Andrew's so-so picks on your own time - he got pretty much what he paid for in Ingram, Edelman, and Olsen.  The bad picks are the funny ones.  On draft day, he smugly outbid me for CåmË®Øñ1NëWtøÑ and thought he was going to win the championship again with him.  Welp, that was a waste of $38.  Oh, and Todd Gurley for $67?

David Li

Good picks: Melvin Gordon ($9 / 209.6, 3.00), Michael Crabtree ($10 / 150.3, 3.6)

So-so pick: Andrew Luck ($16 / 369.7, 1.25)

Bad pick: Rob Gronkowski ($55 / 72, 0.0714)

Props to David for picking up Melvin Gordon for $9 - not bad for the 8th rank RB in scoring.  Michael Crabtree also ended up being a steal at $10, seeing that he finished 10th among WRs.  Something had to make up for the $55 he lost on Gronk.  Andrew Luck actually finished 4th in QB scoring, but $16 was also the 4th highest amount paid for a QB in the draft (not counting Brock Osweiler - see Justina), so David pretty much got what he paid for there.

David Lin

Good pick: Mike Evans ($37 / 208.1, 11.00)

So-so picks: Jeremy Hill ($26, 155.3 / 0.8125) Ryan Mathews ($13 / 131.6, 1.10), Kelvin Benjamin ($18 / 134.1, 1.4118)

Bad picks: DeAndre Hopkins ($70 / 119.4, 0.0357), Allen Robinson ($44 / 126.3, 0.2609)

David Lin is no longer in the league, but for completeness's sake, I've included him.  He struck gold with Mike Evans, who finished 1st among WRs (really?), but David got him for nearly half of DeAndre Hopkins... who, by the way, was a terrible, terrible, terrible pick.

Duke

Good pick: Matt Ryan ($1 / 423.46, 7.50)

So-so picks: Odell Beckham, Jr. ($61 / 195.6, 0.75), Julio Jones ($60 / 176.9, 0.6667)

Bad pick: Eric Decker ($31 / 31.4, 0.2833)

Duke autodrafted, but I'm pretty sure he pre-ranked his players instead of relying on Yahoo to pick for him.  Regardless, Matt Ryan for $1 was the big QB steal in last year's draft.  Duke paid only slightly more for OBJ and Julio for what they ended up producing, and for who knows why, spent $31 on Eric Decker to boot.  And yet he still finished 2nd...

Eric

Good picks: LeSean McCoy ($33 / 248.3, 3.33), Michael Thomas ($1 / 163.7, 6.625)

So-so pick: Marvin Jones, Jr. ($12 / 117.3, 0.9667)

Bad picks: Russell Wilson ($29 / 310.06, 0.2), Lamar Miller ($57 / 160.1, 0.20), Dez Bryant ($44 / 126.3, 0.30)

LeSean McCoy was fairly undervalued in last season's draft, understandably because of his age and history of injuries.  Eric capitalized on that and landed the 3rd highest scoring RB of 2016 for the price of a low-end RB1.  And Eric's $1 spent on then-rookie Michael Thomas paid huge dividends, as Thomas finished 8th in WR scoring.  It's not listed, but his $7 spent on Larry Fitzgerald also was a good value pick.  His bad picks were pretty bad, though - $130 spent on 3 big-name under-performers.  $29 and $57 were both the 3rd-highest amount paid for a QB and RB, respectively, for Russell Wilson and Lamar Miller.  Neither broke top-15 numbers for their position.  Dez had a sub-par season, finishing 20th among WRs, which was a far cry from being the 6th-highest-paid-for WR.  

Gabs

Good picks: Dak Prescott ($1 / 332.88, 2.50), Aaron Rodgers ($37 / 458.02, 2.0), T.Y. Hilton ($35 / 182.8, 3.00)

So-so pick: DeVonte Freeman ($39 / 230.1, 1.33)

Bad pick: Eddie Lacy ($47 / 38.8, 0.1842)

Although Gabs paid top dollar for Aaron Rodgers, it still ended up being a good value for him, since Rodgers ended up as the highest scoring QB last season.  He still ended up with a steal of a backup QB in snatching Dak Prescott for $1, since Prescott ended up 6th in QB scoring.  T.Y. Hilton was also a nice pickup for Gabs - he had to shell out $35 for the WR, about on par with Sammy Watkins, Keenan Allen, and Brandon Marshall, but with a much better outcome - 5th among WRs in scoring.  Gabs got what he paid for in DeVonte Freeman, but Eddie Lacy?  Not so much.  I try to make it a rule of mine to not pay more money on draft day for a player than that player will score in a season.  Gabs didn't do so well with Eddie Lacy on that one.

Jeff

Good pick: DeMarco Murray ($16 / 242.8, 5.00)

So-so pick: Amari Cooper ($39 / 149.3, 0.9091)

Bad picks: Alshon Jeffery ($41 / 94.1, 0.2368), Josh Gordon ($15 / 0, 0.4308)

Jeff had some other fairly good picks (Kirk Cousins for $2, Doug Baldwin for $20), but DeMarco Murray for $16 was the jackpot for Jeff last season.  In fact, DeMarco was the best value RB of last season's draft (tied with LeGarrett Blount - see Justina).  Most people thought DeMarco wouldn't be relevant anymore, but Jeff put his money on Murray and it paid off.  However, he also put just about the same amount of money on Josh Gordon.  #LULZ  Remebz when we were fighting a bidding war over him, Jeff?  So glad you won that one.  But believe it or not, Alshon Jeffery was more of a dud according to my calculations.  Why?  Because Jeff spent $41 on him.  Sure, Josh Gordon scored zero points all season, but it was only a $15 loss.  Alshon Jeffery at $41?  You could have gotten Mike Evans ($37), Jordy Nelson ($36), T.Y. Hilton ($35), Brandon Marshall (Yes, that is for real - $35), Demaryius Thomas ($23), Julian Edelman ($22), Kelvin Benjamin ($18 - make that TWO KBs) - and you get the point - and spent the extra $4+ dollars on, oh, I don't know, Michael Thomas ($1), Rishard Matthews ($1), Terrell Pryor ($1), and Pierre Garcon ($1) - ALL who performed better than Jeffery at $41.

Justina

Good picks: Drew Brees ($15 / 406.32, 2.33), LeGarrett Blount ($1 / 225.9, 5.00)

So-so pick: Matt Forte ($17 / 153.6, 1.0556)

Bad picks: Brock Osweiler ($22 / 197.98, 0.1481, not actually taken into consideration), Keenan Allen ($36 / 6.3, 0.2031), Carolina D ($5 / 126, 0.1429)

Justina hit FF gold with LeGarrett Blount last season.  She paid a measly $1 to get the 7th highest scoring RB in the league.  Props.  Drew Brees also ended up being a worthy investment, as Justina paid less than what was shelled out for Andrew Luck and Carson Palmer ($16 each) for the 3rd highest scoring QB.  As far as the bad, Keenan Allen's injury left Justina high and dry, and even though they aren't listed, both Brandon Marshall and Randall Cobb under-performed / also were injured, and thus Justina overpaid for their services.  The $5 she spent on Carolina's D also ended up not being a good investment.  And I'll just forgive the Brock Osweiler pick, seeing as how she simply didn't want any leftover money, so she (unwisely) spent it all on him.  

Luke

Good pick: Ezekiel Elliott ($56 / 293.4, 2.00)

So-so picks: Antonio Gates ($2 / 94.8, 1.00), Denver D ($3 / 149, 1.00)

Bad picks: Jamaal Charles ($36 / 11.4, 0.2093), A.J. Green ($53 / 120.4, 0.1852)

To cut him some slack, Luke didn't even draft.  But anyone with a sane head on his shoulders should know never to let Aaron draft for him.  Ever.  So instead, Luke's draft fate was left in the hands of Yahoo / V.Putin.  They outsmarted us all and gave Luke a good ROI for Ezekiel Elliott (IMO, a rare exception to putting a bunch of money on a rookie), but the rest of his draft was underwhelming / stunk.  Jamaal Charles scored all of 11.4 points for the season, which means Luke / Yahoo / V.Putin paid approximately $3.15 per point and failed Tim's Draft Rule #281: Never pay more money than points that player will score all season.  Furthermore, A.J. Green earned a value rating of 0.1852 - ending up 27th in points rankings among WRs, even though he was the 5th highest auctioned WR at a whopping $53, over 25% of Luke's total draft moolah.  The only WR to underperform more than that was DeAndre Hopkins (see David Lin).  I think we can all agree that one should not leave the fate of his or her draft in the hands of Yahoo Autodraft / Voldemort Putin.  At least be like Duke and pre-set your auction prices beforehand.

Tim

Good pick: Sterling Shepard ($2 / 119.4, 1.7857)

So-so picks: Everyone else on my team

Bad pick: Doug Martin ($28 / 71.5, 0.375)

I don't need to be reminded of my sub-par / poor draft.  All my players ended up performing to about their value because I am risk averse and save all my money for the safe, middle-round picks, hoping I can catch a few sleepers to help me stay relevant during the season.  That way, I don't spend too much on someone who flops (DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green, Gronk, Todd Gurley, Adrian Peterson, Eddie Lacy, Cam - see other examples above), but that same sword makes my draft boring and leaves me with players like Doug Martin and Jonathan Stewart.  Sterling Shepard was my best "good pick" - so sad.  So the moral of this post?  Don't take draft advice from Tim.

Happy Drafting!

A study of all things dyNASTYc

I'll start by saying I'm loving these emoji-filled Venmos I'm getting.  Justina and David are still top in terms of emoji-skillz, though:

I love that David is already giving himself a medal.  That's the mindset of a champion.  And rainbows are cool too.  Oh, but Justina knows about that Unicorn power. 

But Jeff?  I can't even...

THEN WHY DON"T YOU GO MARRY HIM ALREADY JEFF.  TOM BRADY IS THE 

THE WURST, JEFF.  HE"S THE WURST.

Ok, now that that's out of the way, I present to you, ladies and gents, a power rankings of sorts: FF NU THANG dyNASTY POWER RANKINGS.

"What is that?" You might ask.  I shall explain.  After Eric sparked a discussion about his championship season, it got me looking back at our league's history.  Since the inaugural season in 2004, 5 managers have played all 13 seasons (me, Eric, Luke, Justina, David Lin), and 3 have played 12 season (Gabs, Jeff, Aaron).  I will first make a quick acknowledgement that 13 consecutive seasons is impressive.  Secondly, one would think that throughout the years, there would be a manager who would try to set him (or her) self apart from the rest of the managers to establish a fantasy football dyNASTY.  So I looked back at the final results from all of the previous seasons, beginning in 2004 to figure out which manager managed to do so.  The process is outlined below.

:
The Process:

1. I recorded the teams that finished first through fourth AFTER the playoffs, because the playoff champion is the true champion.  Even if a team finished first during the regular season, if that team fell in the first round of the playoffs, that team was not the real champ.
2. I gave each of these teams a weighted score.  This weighted score was based on their final rank and how many other teams were in the league that year.  For example, the first place finisher in a 12-team league would get 100 points.  2nd place - 33, 3rd place - 10, and 4th place - 3.  If you think this is arbitrary, then you are somewhat right.  My reasoning was that it's about a third as impressive winning 2nd than it is winning 1st.  Whatever.  In a 10-team league, these numbers would be decreased by roughly 80% (not as arbitrary, because 10/12 is roughly 83%).  In an 8-team league, the number was decreased by 60%.  If someone placed 5th or lower, I didn't consider that impressive, so zero points were awarded across the board for 5th and below.
3. I added all of these numbers up over the span of 13 years, and in the event of a tie-breaker, gave the upper hand to whoever had been in the league the longest (we're talking dyNASTY here, not one-hit wonder). And, voila:

FF NU THANG dyNASTY POWER RANKINGS

12. Abraham
Highlights: 2014 - 5th place
Lowlights: 2013 and 2016 - 10th place
There really isn't much to highlight here, and this was one of the no-brainer picks.  I didn't need Joel Embiid for this one.  Even though Abraham has only been in the league for 4 seasons, he has yet to finish in the Top 4.  He's got a lot of catching up to do before he even gets close to becoming dyNASTYc.

11. Jeff
Highlights: 2010 - 2nd place
Lowlights: 2015 - 11th place
This one took me by surprise, especially since Jeff has had a long track history with the league.  He is one of three managers that have been with the league all but one season (he skipped out 2009), which means he has had many more shots at winning the championship than others who are ranked higher than him.  Historically, Jeff has always landed in the middle by the time the season ends.  His highest finish was in 2010, when he got 2nd (in an 8-team league...).  Next highest is 2013, when he came in 4th.  Then he's got 2 seasons finishing 6th, 3 seasons finishing 7th, and 2 seasons finishing 8th.  That's mediocrity at its finest, and definitely isn't synonymous with dyNASTYc, unfortunately.  FWIW, IMO, Jeff makes up for it with his blogging prowess, LOL, KTHXBAI.


10. Aaron
Highlights: 2009, 2011, 2016 - 3rd place
Lowlights: 2004 and 2014 - 11th place; 2008 - 10th place (last)
Another surprise, seeing how Aaron has been in the league as many years as Jeff has.  But if you look closely at his managing history, you'll find the highest he's ever finished was 3rd place.  Granted, he's accomplished the feat 3 times, but his next best finish was 4th in 2012, followed by a less-than-average 7th in 2006, and three 8th place finishes.  From just my anectodal recollection, it seems like Aaron tends to start each season invested, involved, and on fire, but just hasn't been able to sustain that to a championship.  Or even second place.

9. Duke
Highlights: 2016 - 2nd place
Lowlights: 2013 - 11th place
Seeing as how Duke probably cares the least about our league than anyone else in it right now, 9th seems to be a pretty generous ranking.  Especially since he's only been in the league for 4 years.  Just looking at the highlights and lowlights, it would seem that Duke's team is on par with Jeff's, yet he is ranked 2 spots higher.  If you failed to read the process outlined above, I will explain.  Duke's 2nd place finish came just last season, in a 12-team league with money on the line.  Jeff's 2nd place finish came in 2010, in an 8-team league, during the oft-referenced Fantasy dark ages (Lin, 2013).  Therefore, Duke's 2nd place finish is much more impressive than Jeff's.  What about Aaron?  2009 was part of the aforementioned Fantasy dark ages, so winning 3rd for Aaron was just one notch above getting a participation trophy.  Plus, you don't build dyNASTYes by winning 3rd all the time.  Just ask the Clippers.

8. David Li
Highlights: 2014 - 2nd place
Lowlights: 2011 - 9th place
The Tortoise has a 2nd place finish to brag about, but after 6 seasons in the league, hasn't come away with much more than that.  His worst season was in 2011, when he finished 9th in a 10-team league, but otherwise, he's finished between 4th and 6th the remaining 4 seasons.  This was a situation where David and Duke had the same score, but David was ranked higher as a result of being in the league longer.  As I mentioned in my previous post, I think he's got it in him this season, though.  Pressure's on.

7. Laura
Highlights: 2004 and 2008 - 2nd place; 2007 - 3rd place
Lowlights: 2005 - 12th place; 2012 - 10th place (last)
Laura's back in the league, and while some people may have forgotten how she fared in the years before she left, the numbers don't lie.  Two 2nd place finishes and a 3rd place finish during the earlier years of our league gives Laura a leg up against these other managers.  I will note that 2007 and 2008 were 10-team-league years, so that puts a small asterisk next to those seasons, but her resume isn't too shabby.  She has had two disappointing last-place-finishing seasons, the most recent one being her last season with us (2012 was a 10-team league), but I'm sure that bad taste in her mouth will fuel her this season to build on the dyNASTYc foundation she established at the genesis of our league.

6. Tim
Highlights: 2005, 2007, and 2015 - 2nd place
Lowlights: 2013 - 12th place; 2014 - 10th place; 2009 and 2010 - 8th place (last)
With the numbers to justify it, I lead the pack of non-first place finishers in my quest for building an FF NU THANG dyNASTY.  Three second place finishes (One of which was ruined by the dumb Falcons who also ruined the Panthers perfect season #neverforget.  Andrew had wet his bed multiple times that week leading up to the championship because he knew he was in for a whooping.) have paved the way for my teams to be just good enough to be not quite good enough.  It's also kind of sad that I'm the only team without a championship that has been with the league all 13 seasons.  I've blamed it on a lot of things, but we all know it's because the Patriots are the .  They are to blame for pretty much everything good in the football world.

5. Andrew
Highlights: 2015 - 1st place
Lowlights: 2014 - 12th place; 2016 - 11th place
It pains me greatly to see Andrew this high up.  I bet even Andrew is like

Mainly because his highlights and lowlights are his ONLY lights.  As in, he's only been in the league for 3 years, and we're saying he's more dyNASTYc than Odoyle Rules the Adeline's College Fund Unicorn Queen?!?!?!  Just cuz he got a ring now he think he all that.  Look at his other two seasons - last and second to last.  Infurlinatering.  But the numbers don't lie.  His 1st place win in a 12-team league the first season we had buy-ins was impressive.  What's more impressive: He freaking paid $38 for an already-torn-ACL-Jordy-Nelson in the draft and STILL won the league.  Still not over it.

4. Justina
Highlights: 2011 - 1st place; 2010 and 2013 - 3rd place
Lowlights: 2004 - 12th place
Surprisingly, the numbers had Justina and Andrew tied.  Justina's 1st place win was in a 10-team league, while Andrew's was in a 12-team league.  However, Justina's 3rd place finishes and long history with the league give her dyNASTYc building much more legitimacy.  She's also cooler than Andrew.

3. Eric
Highlights: 2004 - 1st place; 2012 and 2014 - 3rd place
Lowlights: 2007 - 10th place (last)
Eric was the OG champion, back when we were all green and probably spent slightly more time on fantasy football than we would have liked to admit.  2004 was a 12-team league back then, and Eric pulled out a victory (even though he claims he had forgotten).  His two 3rd place finishes, not to mention his four 4th place finishes, catapults him ahead of the other former champions.  But is his team dyNASTYc?  While his only 1st place finish came over a decade ago, he hasn't done too shabby in recent history (minus last season).  He still has a bit of ground to cover, but a championship this year would definitely help his case.

2. Gabs
Highlights: 2013 and 2016 - 1st place; 2004 - 3rd place
Lowlights: 2015 - 12th place; 2006 - 11th place; 2011 - 10th place (last)
Gabs's fantasy career has been like a rollercoaster ride:
2004 - 3rd / 12
2005 - 10th / 12
2006 - 11th / 12
2007 - 4th / 10
2008 - 8th / 10
2009 - DNP
2010 - 7th / 8
2011 - 10th / 10
2012 - 6th / 10
2013 - 1st / 12
2014 - 10th / 12
2015 - 12th / 12
2016 - 1st / 12
8 seasons were below-average.  4 seasons were above-average.  2 of those 4 seasons were championship seasons.  Hence, the term borderline dyNASTYc.  Gabs has the shown the ability to build a dyNASTY, but his consistency has also been absolutely terrible.  Interestingly enough, I also calculated a different score based on how teams finished, giving values a linear relationship (for example, 1st gets 12 point, last gets 1 point, and highest cumulative score is the GOAT), which factored in terrible performances as much as excellent performances (and also awarded teams who had been in the league for longer).  That wasn't the interesting part, I just had to finish that sentence because it was getting way annoyingly long.  Interestingly enough, Gabs was 7th (out of the 12) on that list.  But IMO, that's a different conversation.  DyNASTYes are built on championships, not six 6th place finishes.

1. Luke
Highlights: 2005, 2007, 2012 - 1st place; 2011 - 2nd place; 2008 - 3rd place
Lowlights: 2006 - 12th place
It's hard to argue against this.  No matter how hard I tried, no matter what formula I used, Luke always came out on top.  Of all the managers that remain in our league, he's been clearly the most dominant.  I will take a moment to recognize Kobe Bean aka David Lin, who actually beat Luke out in the linear rankings that I described in Gabs's section.  But in the true dyNASTYc rankings, Luke beat out even the mighty Mamba.  The main reason was that two of David Lin's championships were during the Fantasy dark ages where our numbers dwindled to 8 teams, likely due to a plague of sorts.  Even though two of Luke's championships came during our 10-team years, his most impressive one - in my opinion - was during the season of the GOAT in-person live draft.  That was a legit season, and Luke won it rather convincingly (again, at my expense).  He's also garnered a 2nd place and 3rd place finish to round out his resume.  But as far as dyNASTYes in FF NU THANG are concerned, Luke's it.  Even though he hasn't won a championship in 5 years, he's still sits atop these rankings, and until someone makes a case for it, he might be up here for a while.


And for anyone who might be curious, the All-Time Rankings are below:

1. Luke
2. David Lin
3. Gabs
4. Eric
5. Mike
6. Justina
7. Andrew
8. Khoa
9. Tim
10. Laura
11. David Li
12. Duke
13. Jen
14. Aaron
15. Jeff
16. Lan
17. Abraham
18. Ming