Keeper Selections

Acting upon a sudden desire to be kind, I have decided to let you in on my secret garden of fantasy football insight and knowledge.  I have decided to place myself in each manager's shoes and offer advice on what I would do if I were them.  I will call it: "What would Tim do?" Keeper Selection Edition.

I will warn you, however, that this is advice coming from the manager who placed 7th in the league last season, had the 2nd lowest point total for the season, and was ranked dead last in the season's final power rankings.  For some twisted reason, however, I still believe what I write will affect your decision, in spite of my obvious lack of credentials.  I guess that's what most blogging consists of.

I will also mention that I have decided to change my team name.  O'doyle has faithfully lasted me all of 9 seasons, but never was able to win me a championship - in the regular season or playoffs.  Inspired by the Hornets-turned-Bobcats-turned-Hornets-again, I have decided it's time for change.  To get my creative juices flowing, I went to Google and searched "Best Fantasy Football Team Names."  Here are the ones I found amusing:
1. Red Hot Julius Peppers
2. Forgetting Brandon Marshall
3. Belicheck Yourself Before You Rex Yourself
4. RG-3PO

I then thought of names just off the top of my head, and here are some I came up with:
1. I Like To Rock The Party
2. Mr. Narwhal
3. Derelicte
4. Ballers
5. Shot Callers
6. Peanut Butter Happiness Forever
7. Madphatbootyliciousfreakazoid

But after much consideration, I have decided on the perfect blend of intimidating yet fun, all the while embodying what I find to be the essence of Tim.  So ladies and gentlemen, I present to you my new team name: Pinchers of Peril.

But I digress.  In a few weeks, teams will be deciding on their keepers for the 2013-2014 NFL Fantasy Football season.  Since this process can be intimidating, I hope to provide some solace through giving you all my advice on what I would do if I were you.  So here it goes.

Hornets - Ray Rice
Now that we've changed the rules a little, Abraham is at a slight disadvantage.  If he goes with Rice, he's guaranteed a decent RB in the 1st round.  If not, he gets bumped down to 10th pick, where Rice may not even still be on the board.  It'll be a tough decision, but if I were him, I'd stick with Rice, considering that as a #10 overall pick, that's a pretty decent bargain.  By the way, another team name I saw was "Rice Rice Baby" but I suppose that could be confused with Sidney.  Or Jerry.  Oh, and speaking of Laura's old team: "Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe."  HA.

Kardashian Esk. Bros - Pass
Far from the clear dominance her team embodied the previous season, 2012-13 proved to be one of many struggles for Justina's team.  In my opinion, her closest thing to a keeper would be A.J. Green.  But is he worth the reach?  Especially now that she's pretty much guaranteed the first pick?  I would say no.  My gut tells me there will be better WRs available when she's up to pick in the first round, and even if she wants to go the RB or QB route, she'll have a better selection to choose from than what Green has to offer.

Sinni J - Adrian Peterson
Can we all say no-brainer here?  Jeff would be pretty much giving up the consensus #1 overall pick if he decided not to keep Peterson.  I'm more confused about his name change - can someone explain this to me?

Pinchers of Peril (previously known as odoyle RULES) - Pass
It's sad when the best keeper you have is Stevan Ridley.  Maybe I'm not giving him enough credit - he'd probably be considered an early-to-mid 2nd round pick in a 10-team league.  But still, it was time for the name change.  It was definitely time.

THE Pain Train - C.J. Spiller
This one was tough, because if Gabs believes that C.J. won't get in to the injury trouble he had to go through last year, this would be an easier choice.  However, I could understand if Gabs wanted to rid himself of Spiller in hopes of picking up a better RB that might still be on the board by this point.  With that said, if I were Gabs, I would keep C.J.  The combination of not knowing who will be available at this point (even though I'm sure it'll be a decent selection) and the fact that C.J. is a projected #6 or #7 RB makes me want to play it safe and keep him.

Terrific Tortoises - Pass 
With Jimmy Graham as his most worthy potential keeper, I would recommend that David pass him up and save the torture of making that same mistake again.  Sure, he is the best TE out there.  But I'm still of the belief that RBs, and even elite WRs, are hard enough to come by that you can let someone else pick up a TE earlier on and settle with a Dennis Pitta or a Greg Olsen.  Like I said, that's just me.

choubacca - Arian Foster
Another seemingly no-brainer, especially since if he passed, Aaron would most likely be looking at some slim pickings at the RB spot by this point.  Thank goodness he can't keep more than one player.  Victory point for quasi-fantasy-football-communism.

MUSCLE Hamster - Doug Martin
Eric has no choice.  He must keep Martin in order to keep his name.  Especially since Martin was such a workhorse for him late in the season last year.  I'm already calling it - Eric is a contender for the championship in 2013-14.  Why?  Because of his name, DUH.  It's so... scary.  And intimidating.  Have we not learned anything about the power of team names by this point in the post?

The Debbinator - Aaron Hernandez
Just kidding.  Or am I?  Dark horse pick right here, baby.  Ok, but in all seriousness, I'd argue that Brees is David's best bet as a keeper, and even though he's considered a #1 QB by some, I was never a huge fan of picking a QB so early in the draft.  Maybe it's my old-school-get-your-RBs-early mentality that has been killing me all these years.  I'm just of the mindset that decent QBs will still be available by rounds 4, 5, 6 that you can rely on throughout the season.  And there will be one or two break-out QBs that if you're lucky enough, you can reach for in rounds 7, 8, and 9 and still be better off (RGIII of last season, Cam Newton of the season prior, Matthew Stafford a few seasons back, Aaron Rodgers way back).

Spider Pig - Jamaal Charles
I told Luke he should keep Marshawn.  But the more I've looked in to it, the more I would probably go with Jamaal Charles.  Luke is probably aware of all the reasons why, so I won't go in to detail.  I will say though, that if Luke can pull off a repeat this season, I will be very impressed, and he will be deserving of much dap and props.  Why?  BECAUSE THE PINCHERS OF PERIL ARE COMING FOR YOU, PIGGY.

Keeper Analysis

As a teaser for our new season, yours truly is paying 20% attention to his work call to bring you this year's "keeper ape index" analysis. The logic goes as follows:

- Calculate each manager's actual draft position
- Speculate on what each manager's likely keeper is
- Reference some online mock drafts to calculate the draft value of each keeper
- Calculate the variance

And without further ado...

Red - time to flex those management skills
Yellow - manageable situation
Green - things are looking grood

What can we take from this analysis? It's that David has a great chance to flex his management muscles and King Joffrey might actually have a good year! Obviously this is just speculation with the first round and we all know that fantasy championships are won with savvy drafting in later rounds and the occasional advantageous trade.

Hope everyone is having a great summer. 

It's Been a Grood Year

Thank you all for your participation.

Power Rankings: Final Week

And thus, the end of another fun regular season.  With this week being the last of my power rankings, I added some treats: Strength of Performance, which comes from the chart I posted last week, and Strength of Schedule.  For Strength of Performance, if you scored the most points that week, you got a 9, meaning you were the strongest performer that week.  Then all the weeks were averaged.  Strength of Schedule I calculated by basically doing the inverse of Strength of Performance: if your team played the team that scored the most points that week, you got 9 points for playing the hardest team that week.  I did that for all the weeks and averaged them up.  Sure, there might be flaws in that approach, but I think it makes sense to me.

Thanks to everyone for a good season, and best of luck to everyone in the post-season.

Records for predictions are below.  Congrats to Eric for beating me out at the end of the season.

	Tim	Luke	Eric
Last week's record	(1-4)	(0-0)	(3-2)
Overall record	(37-28)	(8-7)	(39-26)
Percentage	0.57	0.53	0.60

1. Spider Pig (10-3) [1], Strength of Performance: 1st, Strength of Schedule: 7th

Marshawn Lynch was probably the best acquisition through a trade in our league this season.  With him, Luke can be confident going in to the playoffs that he'll have an upper hand in almost all of his matchups.  And props to being the regular season champ.  It brings a little more legitimacy to the legacy he's building.

2. MUSCLE Hamster (5-8) [4], SOP: T-5th, SOS: 6th

This one was a tough one for me.  On paper, Aaron's team has bigger-name players, and has performed better overall during the season.  However, Eric has been kicking pretty much everyone's butts the last five weeks... and pretty consistently, too.  Plus, in a straight-up matchup, Eric came out victorious by a long shot.  He's been getting help from unexpected places, but I think it's a testament to his managing skills - not giving up on Megatron or Doug Martin early on in the season, acquiring Bryce Brown and Lance Moore..  It was more than luck that took him from zero to hero in a month's time.

3. choubacca (7-6) [2], SOP: 2nd, SOS: 1st

On paper, Aaron's team has big-name players that definitely look scary, but the last half of the season was overall a dismal one that I'm sure Aaron would like to forget.  At least his team proved these last few weeks that it can score.  I think they will carry that momentum in to the playoffs, but how far it will sustain itself?  We shall see.

4. The Debbinator (10-3) [3], SOP: 3rd, SOS: 10th

David ends the season with a seemingly meaningless win, but as Gabs pointed out, he has potentially opened up a can of worms for himself in two weeks.  The true test will come soon enough.  He's won enough games to earn the bye week, but there are plenty of hungry teams out there, and David's performances in the last five weeks have been mediocre at best.  I wouldn't discount him, though, in spite of his league-worst strength of schedule.  After all, he's proved himself by getting the job done all season and winning games, so maybe that will carry in to the playoffs.

5. THE Pain Train (8-5) [5], SOP: 4th, SOS: 8th

Gabs got a win to end the season, but one that he probably didn't want to get, because now he'll be facing the Hamster in the first round of the playoffs.  I'm not convinced that his team is ready for said matchup, but they'll have to be, or else it's bye-bye Gabs's season.  He started the season off strong, was able to put in a few great performances during the mid-season, and earned himself 3rd place for the regular season.  So it's far from over - I think Gabs's team definitely has the potential to surprise everyone - it certainly has the personnel to do so.

6. RelientK (5-8) [6], SOP: T-5th, SOS: 4th

Laura ends the season on a sour note, but with a valiant effort.  I think her team should have made the playoffs, so here's the next best thing - top 6 in the power rankings, oh yeah!

7. Rainbow Warriors (5-8) [10], SOP: 7th, SOS: 3rd

9 points too little, too late.  If not for Jeff's terrible November performance, he would have easily made the playoffs.  Blame it on Rodgers and Jeff's no-name WRs.  What a shame.

8. Terrific Tortoises (6-7) [7], SOP: 8th, SOS: 9th

I'm happy for David making the playoffs, I really am.  But in all honesty, his team has been stinking of poop the past two weeks, and in my opinion, is the worst team amongst the final 6 still standing.  David's team needs to get its act together, and fast, or else his post-season glory days will end quickly.

9. Kardashian Esk. Bros (4-9) [8], SOP: 9th, SOS: 2nd

Not last, not bad!  Keep blaming law school while you can.  That's what I'd do.

10. odoyle RULES (5-8) [9], SOP: 10th, SOS: 5th

I rented Moneyball and am planning on watching it to get inspired for next season's draft.  That's what that movie is about, right?  Picking the right players to make a baller team?  So much to learn..


Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes my fantasy football blogging for this season.  Thanks to everyone who cared enough to read it.  Please feel free to continue posting throughout the playoffs.

Until next season,

Predictions: Week 13

Egad, my prediction record took a big hit this past week.  Boo for rapid fire predictions.  I hope I'm (5-0) this week, for more reasons than one.

	Tim	Luke	Eric
Last week's record	(1-4)	(0-0)	(3-2)
Overall record	(36-24)	(8-7)	(36-24)
Percentage	0.60	0.53	0.60

odoyle RULES v. The Debbinator
Matt Forte is a question mark.  Sucks for David, not for me!  Matt Ryan needs to get his act together and get back to scoring 25+ points each week.  Especially this week, which I think he'll do against the Saints.  My WRs have some pretty nice matchups, as do David's.  I like my RBs over David's non-existent RBs, and I think that'll be enough to make my case for the 6th spot in the playoffs.
Winner: odoyle RULES

Kardashian Esk. Bros v. Rainbow Warriors
Please raise your hand if you care and your name doesn't start with a J.  Jeff's team been in a major slump, and I can't forsee it pulling itself out of it this week.  Although technically it could still make playoffs.. so sad.
Winner: Kardashian Esk. Bros

MUSCLE Hamster v. choubacca
One last stand for Eric.  Even if he doesn't make the playoffs, he can at least end the season with a bang if he demolishes Aaron's team.  Unfortunately, I think Aaron has some pretty nice matchups: RGIII, Arian Foster, and TRich, not to mention his WRs (minus Cobb, who ebbs and flows with Rodgers).  I don't think even the Muscle Hamster can muscle Eric's team out of this one.
Winner: choubacca

THE Pain Train v. Terrific Tortoises
If Percy Harvin is back in action, then David's got a good advantage in this game.  Eli will do well against the Redskins, as will Decker vs. the Bucs.  Chris Johnson has proved that he can do decently against tough run defenses, so Houston may not be too difficult of a task for him.  While Gabs has some promise in C.J. Spiller and Julio Jones, I don't think he'll have enough support from his other players to put this one in the bag.  It's ok, though, because they'll most likely be seeing each other week 1 in the playoffs, and that's when Gabs will need to bring his A game.
Winner: Terrific Tortoises

RelientK v. Spider Pig
Laura needs this one.  Badly.  Unfortunately, she is up against Luke's team.  And her matchups are all tough.  And Peyton Manning is going to throw all over the Bucs.  And Jamaal Charles is going to run all over the Panthers.  New England defense might give her 20+ points again, but even that probably won't be enough for a win.  A sad ending to a sad season, unfortunately.
Winner: Spider Pig

WEEK 13 (for some of us, a last gasp of hope to make the playoffs) 

MUSCLE Hamster vs choubacca
i'm still fuming that fat chubs got down right lucky last week w/ that douche Brady getting her 40 points and then some how miraculously have Reggie Bush score a TD since what seems like last year and then Forte getting hurt to allow Michael Bush to get some 70 yds and 2 TD's.. ALL of these things happened and she still only beat me by a measly 2 TWO points. 

yes, i'm still in the category of hoping to win this week so squeak in to the 6th playoff spot but it's a long shot. Aaron has absolutely ridiculous match ups this week and should blow me out by a good 10-20 points. *fingers crossed* here's to hoping for another 50 point performance by MUSCLE Hamster (not likely) but at least my team isn't as crappy as chubby chub chub's team. and i can end my season on that note
  
odoyle RULES vs The Debbinator
i need Tim to lose to have a chance but i really don't know how this one will turn out. David is going with Forte but how will he perform w/ the ankle? it's gonna be another shootout tonight w/ the Saints vs Falcons but I'm hoping Brees goes off for 6 TD's.. and 5 of them goes to Lance Moore who I have inserted into my line up.. Tim has Colston though and that doesn't give me a good feeling.. he also has Matty Ice and Roddy.. maybe the snail Turner will run for 6 TD's so it keeps Ryan and Roddy on check. wishful thinking. Tim's RB's are hit or miss and i think that Ridley will get shut down this week. slight edge to David
 
Chubs vs Rainbow Warriors
i still don't get Justina's attempts at awful team names.. so i'll just write out Chubs because that's what best describes her. i will call it now, there is absolutely NO WAY her Bush whacking duo gets close to what they got last week. here's to hoping Rodgers goes off and destroys her.. (but not so much that Jeff gets more points than i do) :)
  
THE Pain Train vs Terrific Tortoises
while they're both pretty evenly matched in the WR and RB department this week, i expect Eli to be the difference maker in this match up. he's coming off a great week last week and dismantling the Packers and he's got another prime time match up on MNF against RGIII. but whoever wins this one, won't mean much. I think it'll be the Tortoises though.

RelientK vs Spider Pig
the same goes for Laura as Tim, i need her to lose.. Rice and Marshall have tough match ups this week against Pitt run D and Seattle's pass D.. big hit for Laura and i just don't think Dalton will do much. Peyton will be Peyton and Charles gets to play against Panthers run D? i expect 80 points out of him after what Bryce Brown did to them on last MNF.. (if only i would have played him, i would've destroyed chubs by 25).. sigh.

Power Rankings: Behind The Scenes

I just wanted to give anyone who was interested a screen shot of the Excel spreadsheet I've been using to help me with the power rankings this season.  Each week, I'd give a 9 to the team that scored the most, followed by an 8 for the second highest scoring team, all the way to a 0 for the lowest scoring team.  Then, I took an average over however many weeks, divide it by 9, and that's the number found in the "%" row.  I think it's a fair gauge of team strength based on weekly performance.  Green = games actually won, Red = games actually lost.  While I don't use this as my only guide, it's definitely been a helpful tool.

Click to enlarge

Just some things to note, which I've touched on already over the season:

-Luke has been the most consistently dominant, and it's shown, especially sans last week.

-Laura ought to be (8-4) and in second place.  But alas, no use dwelling on that fact.
-David Lin ought to be (6-6) and fighting for a spot in the playoffs.  Hm.. role reversal, anyone?
-My team is terrible, probably because I spend more time on this blog than I do on my team... NAW COULDN'T BE.