2012 Crystal Ball

Hello fantasy gurus,

This week's edition of the Pigs of Baskerville will include preliminary power rankings and predictions for the season! MOAR ANALYTICS you may say?? Yes. The answer is yes.

Chart 1: 2011 Manager Efficiency

This chart ranks each team based on the value added by the manager over the course of the 2011 season. It was calculated by the "core" (top 10 ranked players) of each team from draft day to final day in 2011. The number is the difference in average offensive rank for each team. Why does this matter? If past performance is any indicator, the top managers in this list will find a way to improve their team this year through weaselly (watch out, Gabs) trades or waiver wire dominance. 

Chart 2: 2012 Yahoo Project Offensive Rank

This is just the 2012 rosters as of today and the average of their offensive rank via Yahoo's system. Flawed, but still statistically valid since their people get paid to run their analytics. 

Chart 3: Luke's 2012 Power Rankings (Week 1)

I rated each team by position (bench includes K/DST) on a scale of 1-10 and assigned each category a weight in the total team strength category (weight percentages are in the gray).

THE Pain Train - Holy crap Gabs has an impressive team. No real flaws anywhere except for maybe depth (particularly in RB) and injury risk. 

Rainbow Warriors - Having the best QB and TE def helps King Joffrey, but I don't see a lot of depth 

The Debbinator - Strong team across the board and great depth. I'm honestly a little skeptical about his RB's but giving him the benefit of the doubt here.

Spider Pig - RBs are the obvious chink in the Pig's armor, but if Jamaal Charles performs like a top-5 pick (2011 draft rank), then the Pig may be a force to reckon with

choubacca - Vick will be good if he can stay healthy, but Aaron's receivers are pretty pooptastic. I personally think Cruz will be good, but not incredible and you have to be aware of injuries. I should've given Aaron a higher injury score. Dangit. 

JUSTINA OWNS - One of the more enigmatic teams as of right now. We'll see if Cam hits a 2nd year slump or not, but her RBs could use some work... unless Jacuzzi heats up

odoyle RULES - I think Matt Ryan will be pretty good this year, but his WRs could use some work. Being a former owner of both Jennings and Colston, I can say that injuries and the Saints potential woes are going to be a bigger burden than Tim expected. 

Relient K - If MJD avoids the post-lockout struggles, Laura shoots up higher, but her real Achilles heel is at QB. Both her QBs are average fantasy performers and both have a track record of injuries. 

Terrific Tortoises - Also needs help at QB this year. His WRs could be a lot better if Andre stays healthy and Eric Decker fills in a Reggie Wayne-esque role in Denver. PS - I'm also rooting for CJ this year

errrdayimRussell'in - It takes lots of cajones to stand behind a QB that left you for Wisconsin, but I award you no points for it (actually I gave you 4). One of the best WR corps in the league here so maybe he can use them as bargaining chips later on for a better QB?

2012 Pig Predictions!

Finally, we have my predictions for how the league will turn out this year. I've combined the 3 analyses above to predict the final ranking for the regular season!

Given another strong start, King Joffrey will claim the throne ("the worst ones never die") followed by the Pig and Debbinator. Choubacca finagles his way into the top echelon with his crafty trades, and Gabs takes a dip thanks to Yahoo's lack of faith and his management track record. 

Playoff Picture (winner in bold):

Round 1:

Debbinator vs JUSTINA OWNS

choubacca vs THE Pain Train

Round 2:

Rainbow Warriors vs JUSTINA OWNS

Spider Pig vs THE Pain Train

Final:

Spider Pig vs JUSTINA OWNS

...Ok yea I just want revenge from last year's defeat. 

Thanks everybody for reading through this essay! And for Tim's tracking, here are my predictions:

Week 1 Predictions (winners only):

Winners: JUSTINA OWNS, Terrific Tortoises, Rainbow Warriors, Relient K, THE Pain Train

Week 1 Predictions

Can you believe the NFL season starts on Wednesday?!  It came a lot quicker than I expected it to come.  Anyways, I wanted to quickly revisit last season's predictions (only during the regular season.. I slacked off when it came to playoffs):

	Tim	Luke	David Lin	Eric	Laura	Justina
Last week's record	(3-2)	(0-0)	(0-0)	(0-0)	(0-0)	(0-0)
Overall record	(36-24)	(11-9)	(7-8)	(24-16)	(13-7)	(9-6)
Percentage	0.60	0.58	0.47	0.60	0.65	0.60

It's somewhat encouraging that I did better than 50%, although not that much better.  I'm aiming for 0.70 this year, but that may end up being too ambitious.  Who am I kidding, I might as well be flipping a coin for most of these picks anyway.


odoyle RULES v. JUSTINA OWNS
This week is a test-run for my WRs.  I don't think all 3 will do great, but I'm hoping for the best.  I think Justina has me beat in all positions except maybe RB, but even then, I could see Lynch outperforming McCoy.  Cam's going to break my heart one way or the other, so I see this matchup as a lose-lose situation.
Winner: JUSTINA OWNS

errrdayimRussell'in v. Terrific Tortoises
I have a feeling Russell Wilson will play to Eric's expectations this week.  If that be the case, I think with his stronger WRs, and assuming that he finds a replacement for Witten before Wednesday's game, the matchup is in Eric's favor.  I'm sure David is crossing his fingers that Johnson and Graham will be worth their rounds 1 and 2 picks, and even though I'll be rooting for them (for David's sake), I think I should go with common sense on this one.
Winner: errrdayimRussell'in

Rainbow Warriors v. Spider Pig
Jeff is probably happy he picked up Gerhart now, with Peterson's status for Sunday uncertain.  However, it might not even be a bad idea for him to start Jennings.  Just a thought.  Picking the winner of this one is no fun, because there are too many question marks on both teams (Jeff: Lloyd has yet to prove himself, Jackson is a lazy bum, Peterson is kind of hurt, and there are too many backup RBs to choose from.  Luke: Wallace has been out of practice, Austin and Charles are returning from injuries).  Since Jeff's team seems to have more severe question marks, I'm going to have to go with..
Winner: Spider Pig

The Debbinator v. RelientK
Good news for Laura, MJD finally showed up for practice.  Bad news is he probably won't play Sunday, and even if he does, I doubt he'll be that effective.  Even with Bradshaw in her lineup to replace MJD, I think David has enough firepower, especially at the WR position, to hold Laura off this week.  I don't think it will be as big of a margin of victory as Yahoo predicts, but I think Laura will suffer early on for MJD's bone-headedness.
Winner: The Debbinator

THE Pain Train v. choubacca
How can I put Gabs at #1 in my power rankings and not choose him to win?  I still think his team is one of the strongest in our league until proven otherwise.  Aaron may put up a fight, but I think he'll fall short, with the blame falling on Vick, Turner, and his lousy WR2 and WR3s.
Winner: THE Pain Train

Pre-season Rankings 2012 (#1-2)

1. THE Pain Train

QB

Matthew Stafford

Joe Flacco
RB

Darren McFadden

Fred Jackson

CJ Spiller

LeGarrette Blount

Ronnie Brown
WR

Julio Jones

Stevie Johnson

Reggie Wayne

Santonio Holmes

Randy Moss
TE/K/DEF

Jermichael Finley

Stephen Gostkowski

Baltimore Defense

Gabs performs a complete 180 and actually shows up to the draft on time this year.  He claims he was there last season, but I'm pretty sure Yahoo autopicked all the important picks for him.  I think he "had trouble logging on"?  Anyways, as long as his team can avoid injury (especially Stafford and McFadden), I think his team looks predictably solid.  It was smart of him to pick up both Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller, and he's got a good WR1 and WR2.  His weakest position right now is probably WR3, but I'd take that any week.


2. JUSTINA OWNS

QB

Cam Newton

Ryan Fitzpatrick
RB

Marshawn Lynch

Reggie Bush

Michael Bush

Jacquizz Rodgers
WR

AJ Green

Hakeem Nicks

Dez Bryant

Nate Washington

Nate Burleson

James Jones
TE/K/DEF

Brandon Pettigrew

David Akers

Green Bay Defense

As the returning champion, Justina is back with something to prove: that last year wasn't a fluke.  And to be honest, I think she's off to a pretty good start.  With one of the best QBs in the league, a reasonably decent WR squad, a good (yes, I think Lynch will be pretty good) RB1 with some manageable options for RB2, and some promising potential on the bench (Jacquzzi, the Nates, and James Jones), Justina is poised to defend her title.  Doubters and haters, beware.


And here's the final list, folks:
1. THE Pain Train
2. JUSTINA OWNS
3. Rainbow Warriors
4. Spider Pig
5. choubacca
6. RelientK
7. odoyle RULES
8. errrdayimRussell'in
9. The Debbinator
10. Terrific Tortoises

Pre-season Rankings 2012 (#3-4)

3. Rainbow Warriors

QB
Aaron Rodgers
RB
Adrian Peterson
Frank Gore
Rashad Jennings
Toby Gerhart
Ryan Williams
Isaac Redman
WR
Brandon Lloyd
Antonio Brown
DeSean Jackson
Denarius Moore
Kenny Britt
TE/K/DEF
Rob Gronkowski
Sebastian Janikowski
Houston Defense

Jeff makes a smart move and makes his first pick count with Rodgers.  With QBs scoring such ridiculous numbers in fantasy now, Rodgers was definitely the best player on the board at pick number 1.  He's even smarter not to have a backup QB to waste a spot on his roster.  But having chosen Gronk so early left him with few RB choices to work with.  Peterson and Gore have big question marks next to them - they do have potential, though.  Having Jennings helps, as well as a few sleeper RBs, but he's making some big gambles at that position for the sake of an awesome QB.  I'm guessing at least one of those gambles will pay off.  Also, I'm sure Rodgers will make up for any lack-of-scoring the rest of his team might pull.  His WRs are pretty well-rounded - nothing flashy, but solid.

4. Spider Pig

QB
Tom Brady
Peyton Manning
RB
Jamaal Charles
Darren Sproles
DeAngelo Williams
Kevin Smith
WR
Larry Fitzgerald
Mike Wallace
Miles Austin
Pierre Garcon
Greg Little
Anquan Boldin
TE/K/DEF
Vernon Davis
Matt Bryant
Chicago Defense

Luke's got the best QB duo in our league, but as David Li learned last year, a QB on the bench won't get you any points.  And while his WRs are strong, propelling his team up in the rankings, his RBs are suspect, preventing it from going much higher.  Jamaal Charles is questionable due to injury, Darren Sproles doesn't have much upside, DeAngelo will be splitting time with Stewart, and who knows what the Lions' RB situation will be.  If his RB situation turns around and proves to be productive, he can definitely be a threat.  Especially with pretty boy Brady.

Pre-season Rankings 2012 (#5-6)

5. choubacca

QB

Michael Vick

Robert Griffin III
RB
Arian Foster

Trent Richardson

Michael Turner

Peyton Hillis
WR

Victor Cruz

Demaryius Thomas

Laurent Robinson

Michael Floyd

Mario Manningham
TE/K/DEF

Antonio Gates

Coby Fleener

Mason Crosby

New York Giants Defense

Aaron got lucky that Arian Foster fell into his lap, but he's going to have to hope that Richardson doesn't turn out to be a flop (or continue having injury problems).  Even with a solid RB duo, Vick is unpredictable, and Cruz is his only reliable WR.  Antonio Gates might help out a little, but Aaron will need more than that to defend his regular season crown.


6. RelientK

QB

Tony Romo

Ben Roethlisberger
RB

Ray Rice

Maurice Jones-Drew

Ahmad Bradshaw

Mark Ingram
WR

Brandon Marshall

Jordy Nelson

Dwayne Bowe

Mike Williams

Lance Moore

Michael Crabtree
TE/K/DEF

Fred Davis

Matt Prater

Pittsburgh Defense

Laura actually has a pretty respectable team this year.  I've never been a big Romo fan, but he can definitely get the job done.  Brandon Marshall + Jordy Nelson shouldn't disappoint either.  Rice and MJD arguably make up the best RB duo in our league, if (big if) MJD comes back in time and plays like he did last year.  It's looking like he'll still be out when the season starts, which takes Laura's team down a spot or two - otherwise, she'd easily be top 3 or 4 in our league.  If MJD comes back healthy and fully-functional, watch out for Laura's team to contend for the top spot.

Pre-season Rankings 2012 (#7-8)

7. odoyle RULES

QB

Matt Ryan

Andrew Luck
RB

LeSean McCoy

DeMarco Murray

Shonn Greene

David Wilson

Cedric Benson
WR

Greg Jennings

Marques Colston

Torrey Smith

Titus Young

Sidney Rice
TE/K/DEF

Greg Olsen

John Kasay

New England Defense

My team is admittedly mostly potential.  I'm not happy with my QB, but he'll do.  LeSean and DeMarco I can live with, and if one of the three, Greene, Wilson, or Benson, produce how I hope they do, I'll be very happy with my RBs.  The WRs are definitely weak and thin - probably the worst WRs in our league.  But there's potential!  Torrey Smith and Titus Young, prove me right!  Until then, I can't be taken too seriously.

8. errrdayimRussell'in

QB
Russell Wilson
Josh Freeman
RB
Steven Jackson
Doug Martin
Donald Brown
BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Stevan Ridley
WR
Calvin Johnson
Roddy White
Vincent Jackson
Robert Meachem
Justin Blackmon
TE/K/DEF
Jason Witten
Rob Bironas
Seattle Defense

Eric definitely has the best WRs in our league, both starting and on the bench.  It cost him, however, at the other positions.  Less so at RB, since I think out of the 5 he has, he'll be able to find 2 to ride week-to-week.  Choosing which 2 will definitely be the hardest part, and may cost him a few games.  QB is his biggest question mark.  He believes (as do I) that Russell Wilson is going to explode this year.  If he does, Eric's team is going straight to the top of the power rankings, no doubt.  But until he proves himself (which I'm not convinced he has yet - preseason is a whole different beast than the regular season), I'm keeping Eric down here.  Even if Russell Wilson flops, I think Eric's team has enough peripheral support to keep him afloat until he finds (and somehow acquires) a more reliable QB.

Pre-season Rankings 2012 (#9-10)

I want to preface my rankings this season by reflecting on last year's power rankings compared to the final rankings.  Granted, management of a team is just as important, if not more important, than drafting, but I thought it was interesting to see more-or-less how accurate my rankings were.

Pre-season Rankings 2011:
1. Spider Pig
2. Rainbow Warriors
3. JohnKasay#1
4. what's poppin slime (The Debbinator)
5. aaronisyourdaddy
6. Terrific Tortoises
7. JUSTINA OWNS
8. RelientK
9. odoyle RULES
10. THE Pain Train

Final Standings 2011 (based on the regular season):
1. aaronisyourdaddy
2. JUSTINA OWNS
3. Rainbow Warriors
4. odoyle RULES
5. Spider Pig
6. JohnKasay#1
7. The Debbinator
8. Terrific Tortoises
9. RelientK
10. THE Pain Train

Final Standings 2011 (based on playoffs):
1. JUSTINA OWNS
2. Spider Pig
3. aaronisyourdaddy
4. JohnKasay#1
5. odoyle RULES
6. Rainbow Warriors
7. The Debbinator
8. RelientK
9. Terrific Tortoises
10. THE Pain Train

I'd say I missed the mark big time on Justina (undervalued) - she proved me way wrong - I didn't fully appreciate how well Megatron, Rice, and Forte would do.  The mark was missed a little less so on myself (undervalued), Aaron (undervalued), and David (overvalued).  I partly attribute the Aaron and David discrepancy to their big trade (which was basically Aaron trading Arian Foster for David's Aaron Rodgers).  As for my undervaluing, maybe I just have low self-esteem.  But overall, I'd like to think my pre-season rankings were reasonably accurate.  I mean, I nailed it on Gabs, right?  Sorry, Gabs.

Anyways, moving forward, I plan on publishing this year's rankings in installments, just to make it fun for myself and a little less overwhelming to read (as my draft analysis probably was).  So for the next 5 days, I'll publish two teams in the rankings, from the worst to the best.  Whether or not you agree with me, these are my thoughts and I'm sticking to them.  Enjoy!

9. The Debbinator

QB

Drew Brees

Philip Rivers
RB

Matt Forte

Willis McGahee

Ben Tate

Rashard Mendenhall
WR

Wes Welker

Steve Smith

Jeremy Maclin

Malcolm Floyd

Santana Moss
TE/K/DEF
Aaron Hernandez

Tony Gonzalez

--empty-- (Like it matters)

Philadelphia Defense

I think David went all wrong with his draft this year.  I can't get excited about any of his RBs, his WRs aren't bad, but I think have mostly either passed their prime or won't be reaching their potential, and I'm not keen on either Brees or Rivers.  Hernandez's stock may rise, but I don't think that's enough for David to be a real threat.

10. Terrific Tortoises

QB
Eli Manning
Jay Cutler
RB
Chris Johnson
Ryan Mathews
Jonathan Stewart
Beanie Wells
Roy Helu
WR
Andre Johnson
Percy Harvin
Eric Decker
Darrius Heyward-Bey
Doug Baldwin
TE/K/DEF
Jimmy Graham
Dan Bailey
San Francisco Defense

David was hoping to climb out of the bottom, but unfortunately, I'm not seeing the light at the end of the tunnel.  Even if Chris Johnson does a lot better than he did last year (which I think he probably will), Ryan Matthews has a big question mark next to his name.  Eli Manning is a great QB in the NFL, but unfortunately that doesn't always translate well to fantasy land.  Outside of Andre Johnson, I'm not too impressed with David's WRs.  Some have potential, but potential doesn't win games (yet).  Jimmy Graham is his brightest hope, with the entire San Francisco Defense not too far behind.  I don't know about you, but if my defense was my 2nd (ok, maybe 3rd) most reliable source of points, I would be a bit concerned.  We'll see if that first round pick was used wisely.