2012 Crystal Ball

Hello fantasy gurus,

This week's edition of the Pigs of Baskerville will include preliminary power rankings and predictions for the season! MOAR ANALYTICS you may say?? Yes. The answer is yes.

Chart 1: 2011 Manager Efficiency

This chart ranks each team based on the value added by the manager over the course of the 2011 season. It was calculated by the "core" (top 10 ranked players) of each team from draft day to final day in 2011. The number is the difference in average offensive rank for each team. Why does this matter? If past performance is any indicator, the top managers in this list will find a way to improve their team this year through weaselly (watch out, Gabs) trades or waiver wire dominance. 

Chart 2: 2012 Yahoo Project Offensive Rank

This is just the 2012 rosters as of today and the average of their offensive rank via Yahoo's system. Flawed, but still statistically valid since their people get paid to run their analytics. 

Chart 3: Luke's 2012 Power Rankings (Week 1)

I rated each team by position (bench includes K/DST) on a scale of 1-10 and assigned each category a weight in the total team strength category (weight percentages are in the gray).

THE Pain Train - Holy crap Gabs has an impressive team. No real flaws anywhere except for maybe depth (particularly in RB) and injury risk. 

Rainbow Warriors - Having the best QB and TE def helps King Joffrey, but I don't see a lot of depth 

The Debbinator - Strong team across the board and great depth. I'm honestly a little skeptical about his RB's but giving him the benefit of the doubt here.

Spider Pig - RBs are the obvious chink in the Pig's armor, but if Jamaal Charles performs like a top-5 pick (2011 draft rank), then the Pig may be a force to reckon with

choubacca - Vick will be good if he can stay healthy, but Aaron's receivers are pretty pooptastic. I personally think Cruz will be good, but not incredible and you have to be aware of injuries. I should've given Aaron a higher injury score. Dangit. 

JUSTINA OWNS - One of the more enigmatic teams as of right now. We'll see if Cam hits a 2nd year slump or not, but her RBs could use some work... unless Jacuzzi heats up

odoyle RULES - I think Matt Ryan will be pretty good this year, but his WRs could use some work. Being a former owner of both Jennings and Colston, I can say that injuries and the Saints potential woes are going to be a bigger burden than Tim expected. 

Relient K - If MJD avoids the post-lockout struggles, Laura shoots up higher, but her real Achilles heel is at QB. Both her QBs are average fantasy performers and both have a track record of injuries. 

Terrific Tortoises - Also needs help at QB this year. His WRs could be a lot better if Andre stays healthy and Eric Decker fills in a Reggie Wayne-esque role in Denver. PS - I'm also rooting for CJ this year

errrdayimRussell'in - It takes lots of cajones to stand behind a QB that left you for Wisconsin, but I award you no points for it (actually I gave you 4). One of the best WR corps in the league here so maybe he can use them as bargaining chips later on for a better QB?

2012 Pig Predictions!

Finally, we have my predictions for how the league will turn out this year. I've combined the 3 analyses above to predict the final ranking for the regular season!

Given another strong start, King Joffrey will claim the throne ("the worst ones never die") followed by the Pig and Debbinator. Choubacca finagles his way into the top echelon with his crafty trades, and Gabs takes a dip thanks to Yahoo's lack of faith and his management track record. 

Playoff Picture (winner in bold):

Round 1:

Debbinator vs JUSTINA OWNS

choubacca vs THE Pain Train

Round 2:

Rainbow Warriors vs JUSTINA OWNS

Spider Pig vs THE Pain Train

Final:

Spider Pig vs JUSTINA OWNS

...Ok yea I just want revenge from last year's defeat. 

Thanks everybody for reading through this essay! And for Tim's tracking, here are my predictions:

Week 1 Predictions (winners only):

Winners: JUSTINA OWNS, Terrific Tortoises, Rainbow Warriors, Relient K, THE Pain Train