Wednesday, September 12, 2012

WEEK 2
another week.. another round of predictions.. i'm gonna have to get use to writing earlier predictions w/ a Thursday game every week this season.. sighh.. here we go! feel free to comment, criticize, scold, praise my predictions! :)

errrdayimRussell'in vs odoyle RULES

QB: i am confident this is the week Russell bounces back and tears it up.. maybe not as much as i'd like because the Cowboys defense is pretty scary w/ Ware in there.. but he'll put up decent numbers.. can't match matty ice though.. break out season a comin
(PICK--> odoyle RULES)

WR: 'Tron & Roddy put up decent numbers for me last week even w/o hitting pay dirt. this week, they each get at least one, maybe more, V-Jax also breaks out. Tim picks up Ogletree to try and bolster his mediocre receiving corp... to NO avail. sorry bud.
(PICK--> errrdayimRussell'in)

RB: McCoy + Murray > The Law Firm + Stevan Ridley HOWEVER, not this week. McCoy has a tough match-up vs the Ravens D and Murray is going against a formidable&stingy Hawks' D at home..(of the 12th man.. which i guess now Tim is a part of) LawFirm put up superb numbers vs the Ravens D though.... so maybe McCoy will have some success but i would lean more towards him being a bust this week. Ridley w/ what... 200 yfs it seems like? even though i hate the Patriots, i love my dark horse, Stevan Ridley.
(PICK--> errrdayimRussell'in)

TE: Olsen looked pretty good even w/ a so-so game from game. i'm still weary w/ Witten's ruptured spleen for the time being
(PICK--> odoyle RULES)

K: Hanson will keep kicking FG's if Lions can't get in the endzone because Stafford throws 5 more picks.. but Bironas won't get any opportunities at all because CJ2LAME averaged 0.2 yds per carry this last week.. sighh

(PICK--> odoyle RULES)

DEF: i like my Seahawks D at home because they always seem super good there as opposed to playing on the road but the Cowboys looked super good on offense, could spell trouble and NE is playing zona'.. they will break Kevin Kolb.. i hate that guy for leading the Cardinals to a victory over Russell and the Hawks..
(PICK--> odoyle RULES)

WINNER: odoyle RULES

Green Nicks and Cam vs choubacca
 *disclaimer: I was tempted to just give Aaron the win right off the bat because of Chubs' lame attempt at a witty name.. sorry bud, your old name was better*

QB: Aaron being bold and starting RGIII over Vick but i can't blame him. Vick had what? 17 turnovers? 11 INT's, 2 pick6's, and 4 lost fumbles.. yeah sounds bout right, but will RGIII have the same stat line this week as he did in week 1? he's a rookie.. we'll see. Cam is gonna bounce back right and DESTROY those cheating/dirty playing Saints to the tune of 300+ passing yds, 75 rushing, 3 TD's. BOOM!
(PICK--> Green Nicks and Cam)

WR: AJ will be good for Chubs but Nicks and Bryant worry me because of injury/lingering injury Cruz will bounce back from his 10 drops last game and come up huge because he misses his salsa dancing in the end zone and he wants to be able to dance this week. i did not realize how scary good Peyton would be.. Demaryius Thomas gets a HUGE boost in my book and his stats proved he is to be reckoned with. Cobb??! What? it seems like the Packers lined this guy up at WR, RB, return, TE, QB, punter, kicker... he's everywhere! 
(PICK--> choubacca)

RB: I feel bad for Richardson because everyone knows that Cleveland sucks so they stack the box w/ 11 people.. but Foster should make up for Richardson's ineffectiveness. Lynch got his numbers and so did Reggie Bush but can they beat Foster's numbers? doubt it.
(PICK--> choubacca)

TE: scary moment for Aaron as Gates left the game on Monday night because of a rib injury, but he was able to return. he also let 2 potential TD's slip through his hands.. it won't happen this week. Pettigrew dropped at least 10 passes last week. he's huge but he's got terrible hands.. all the more reason to throw it to megatron so i can get more points! :)
(PICK--> choubacca)
 

K: did anyone see David Akers face on Sportscenter Top10 after he kicked his record tying 63 yd FG? LOLLL if you didn't look it up. it's amazing
(PICK--> Green Nicks and Cam)
 

DEF: Green Bay got straight up embarrassed against the 49ers.. but the Giants also got torched by the Cowboys.. toss up.. 
(PICK--> choubacca)

WINNER: choubacca

Rainbow Warriors vs QuitPooingOnMe Tim
*also tempted to automatically give Jeff the win because apparently Justina has been a terrible influence on David while they were roommates and now he is ALSO making things difficult w/ the name changing*

QB: Rodgers seemed pissed about the shlacking his team took at home.. he comes out this week and goes crazy.. Eli will be serviceable but won't put up Rodgers numbers this week
(PICK--> Rainbow Warriors)

WR: Lloyd is a legit deep threat but it's all about the TE's in New England Desean is 2nd option to Maclin it seems like and Antonio Brown didn't do as much as I expected week 1. Andre Johnson looked scary good in week 1 like he did 3-4 years ago and as long as his hamstrings don't snap, he'll be on a roll. Harvin is the ONLY receiver Vikes' have.. everyone else outside of him and AP is moot and does not need to be discussed. and Decker will be great this season just like Thomas because of Peyton and his healed up neck (hopefully i didn't jinx him)
(PICK--> QuitPooingOnMe Tim)

RB: CJ2'LAME' and Ryan Mathews? (he's not even cleared for contact) you better get him outta your line up David.. ride Gore while you can Jeff.. he'll start to wear down by week 3.. lol (it happened to me last year when i had him.. super frustrating) and where did AP come from? didn't he just shatter his leg like 6 months ago? this guy is Wolverine in disguise.. 
(PICK--> Rainbow Warriors)

TE: #1 and #2 TE's in the league head to head this week. they both have favorable match ups against so so D's.. Graham doesn't have to share w/ another elite TE though
(PICK--> QuitPooingOnMe Tim)
 

K: Sea-Bass seriously makes kicking FG's look so easy that anyone can do it.. maybe all kickers should add on an extra 80 lbs like him and they can kick further also... just a thought
(PICK--> Rainbow Warriors)
 

DEF: normally this wouldn't be a question as the 49ers are clearly one of the top defensive units in the league.. they showed it against that potent GB offense last week. but Houston is playing Jacksonville this week. and 49ers up against another potent Lion's offense.. so i gotta go w/ Houston this week
(PICK--> Rainbow Warriors)

WINNER: Rainbow Warriors
  
The Debbinator vs Spider Pig

QB: Panthers D will shut down Brees THEY MUST!! (well not shut down cause that is impossible but he will not have a super 'brees'-y day.. ohhhhh see, that's something i know Chubs would say) Brady throws all over Arizona
(PICK--> Spider Pig)

WR: did i not call Welker coming back down to earth? he had 1 catch? 10 yds last week? LOLL it's gonna be like that most of the season w/ a few occasional good weeks. this won't be one. Steve Smith and Malcom will be decent if not great this week w/ their match-ups. Fitz is an elite WR but his QB's in Zona just plain suck.. both Skeleton and Klob... sorry Garcon has been a pleasant surprise as i didn't think his preseason stuff would translate to the regular season, so far, i've been wrong
(PICK--> Spider Pig)

RB: hurts to have Forte doesn't it. if da Bears didn't sign Michael Bush, I would say Forte would be a top 5 fantasy back but Bush is just going to steal all the goal line carries.. Forte was lucky he hit pay dirt last week w/ a TD.. McGahee will get his looks and holes w/ Peyton calling the shots.... buttttttttt with that said: Luke's RB's are down right PITIFUL. Charles and DeAngelo? feel so bad for you. anyone on my team is up for trade Luke, except Wilson.. make me an offer)
(PICK--> The Debbinator)

TE: Vernon Davis tried to dunk the ball over the FG cross bar after he scored a TD. he got rejected. i will give David the win just because Davis tried to look cool but ended up looking like an idiot
(PICK--> The Debbinator)
 

K: i like Matt Bryant's match up better this week
(PICK--> Spider Pig)
 

DEF: i'm going w/ the Eagles this week as Rodgers and GB are looking for revenge.. against a division rival in da Bears? watch out Urlacher..
(PICK--> The Debbinator)

WINNER: *tied 3-3* intangibles= Spider Pig

THE Pain Train vs RelientK

QB: Stafford bounces back this week and throws 4 TD passes instead of 4 picks.. sorry Tony.. you won't put up enough points to win this match up this week
(PICK--> THE Pain Train)

WR: whoaaa Julio Jonesssss... and Reggie Wayne has become young again.. (or maybe because he has a decent QB throwing to him again.. watch out..) Marshall and Cutler obviously have that bromance connection going on and Nelson will get his with Rodgers throwing the ball. Bowe is good but Cassell sucks harder than... everything. Stevie Johnson X factor this week
(PICK--> THE Pain Train)

RB: this one is really hard to call. Run DMC had a ridiculous 18 targets week 1 and caught 13! salvaged his day b/c he averaged 2.3 yds per carry. and what a SMART handcuff by picking up CJ Spiller Gabs'.. props to you buddy. but Laura has Ray Rice and now MJD is back (Jennings suffered a knee injury) little MoJo didn't look like he missed a beat w/ his touches last week. close match up but advantage to
(PICK--> RelientK)


TE: Finley seems to be a redzone fav for Rodgers..a TD to start the year.. not bad. I didn't hear Fred Davis' name last week
(PICK--> THE Pain Train)
 

K: Saurbrun!!!! ...... i mean Prater. 
(PICK--> RelientK)
 

DEF: Ravens match up worse against Eagles than Steelers against Jets. BUT did you see Sanchez? his numbers were crazy good last week. I guess bringing in Tebow was good.. he will continue his stellar play.. for this week at least against a depleted Steelers D
(PICK--> THE Pain Train)

 WINNER: THE Pain Train

Predictions: Week 2

TimLukeEric
Last week's record(3-2)(2-3)(2-3)
Overall record(3-2)(2-3)(2-3)
Percentage0.600.400.40


odoyle RULES v. errrdayimRussell'in
I'll take my QB and RBs over Eric's stronger WRs any week.  I think Matt Ryan will blow Russell Wilson out of the water enough to hand the victory over to the odoyles.
Winner: odoyle RULES

Green Nicks and Cam v. choubacca
Justina's team is bound to bounce back from last week's performance.  Cam has to do better for the Panthers to win the Super Bowl, right?  But seriously, Aaron's team needs more support for Arian Foster.  Even with a hot RGIII, I think Justina's WRs will do better this week and give her the W.  Plus, the name change has to somehow affect her team in a positive way, right?
Winner: Green Nicks and Cam

Rainbow Warriors v. Terrific Tortoises
I'm amazed at how off the Yahoo predictions are for David's team.  Jeff's got Aaron Rodgers, a much-improved Adrian Peterson, and Gronk.  That easily neutralizes David's weapons, which would be.. Jimmy Graham.  Ok, maybe Andre Johnson, too.  Sorry, David, I don't think that'll be enough.  Chris Johnson?  Let's not even go there.
Winner: Rainbow Warriors

The Debbinator v. Spider Pig
It'll come down to how Luke's RBs will do.  I think they're pretty even at QB, Luke's got the advantage at WR, but Luke's RBs could either fall horribly flat, or be serviceable.  David will make up for it a little at the TE position, but I'm not sure David's team will be able to replicate its performance from last week.
Winner: Spider Pig

THE Pain Train v. RelientK
Laura is stuck with another tough matchup this week.  I'd love to see her team win.  Not just to de-throne Gabs from my power rankings, but also for her own redemption.  Do I think it will happen?  No.  As I've said before, Gabs's team is good.  And with CJ Spiller starting, I think it's even scarier.  For Laura, I don't think Romo will have as good of a week this week, and I don't think Ray Rice, MJD, Brandon Marshall, Jordy Nelson, and Dwayne Bowe can produce enough to beat out McFadden, Spiller, Julio, Stevie Johnson, and (a better-looking) Reggie Wayne.  Man, Gabs has a good team.
Winner: THE Pain Train


To end the post, here is a lovely poem by none other than the brilliant poet Justina Chen:

I am Cam
Cam I am

That Cam I am
That Cam I am!
We’ll win this week
With Cam I am

We like Cam more than R – G – III
And Akers more than Nate Kaeding
Though Victor Cruz has many tricks
Where Eli throws is Hakim Nicks
We’ll beat Choubacca in the rush
We’ll beat him using Reggie Bush!

We'll win this week,
Green Nicks and Cam!
Thank you!
Thank you,
Cam I am!

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Power Rankings: Week 1

Week 1 is always fun, because it's the start of something new.  For some, that came in good news, for others, not so good news.  For all, a new set of power rankings!


1. THE Pain Train (1-0) [1]
Gabs's team is still clearly dominant.  Imagine how many points he would have scored with CJ Spiller in the lineup instead of Fred Jackson.  I guess that's what next week is for.  Even with Stafford underperforming significantly, Flacco looks like he'll be a decent backup plan.  Gabs's WRs were just ridiculous, and McFadden added some solid numbers.  It doesn't hurt to have a defense that puts up 18 points, either.


2. The Debbinator (1-0) [9]

Ok, so I totally underestimated David's team.  I still don't like Drew Brees.  And I still see weaknesses in his team.  But I can't come up with an argument against placing him any lower than this.  He scored the most points this week, and it came from respectable sources (Steve Smith, Maclin, Forte, Hernandez).  I think Hernandez and Smith will continue to produce week-to-week.  However, I'm still not convinced about how consistent Maclin or Forte will be.  But for now, David has proven that he has a team to be reckoned with.  In spite of my dislike for Brees.


3. RelientK (0-1) [6]

How can a team lose and still move up in the rankings?  By putting up 110 points in a week, and having only 9 of those come from K / DEF combined.  That's impressive.  Rice continues to dominate like nobody's business, and Bradshaw showed up to play against Dallas.  As for her WRs, evidently, the Cutler-Marshall connection is still there.  And assuming that Laura gives Moore more playing time, her WRs are looking rather formidable.  Her team is another one that I seemed to have underestimated.  Funny story, I actually did have Laura as high as #2 in my preseason rankings before I came up with the final list.  My reasons for bumping her down were (1) Tony Romo, and (2) lack of depth on her bench.  So far, she's proving me wrong.


4. Rainbow Warriors (0-1) [3]

Wow, Adrian Peterson.  Very impressive for Jeff's team.  Too bad he didn't start him, or else he would have definitely had the win.  I think with the return of Britt and Moore, he'll be alright at the WR position as well.  He just has to hope Peterson stays healthy, and Gore keeps producing.


5. Spider Pig (1-0) [4]
Wait, didn't Luke beat Jeff this week?  Yes.  So why is his team lower in the ranking than Jeff's?  Simple.  His starting RBs were so sorry last week.  Ridiculously sorry.  If it weren't for his 31 points from K / DEF (highest in the league, Chicago playing a still-recovering Indy offense), it would have been a lot harder for him to capture the victory.  Yes, he had points on the bench that were unused.  A lot of points.  And yes, he got the win, so I shouldn't be a hater.  But I see trouble in Luke's future, trying to figure out which RBs to start each week.  Is Kevin Smith really going to blow up like that each week?  I doubt it.  How about Sproles?  Unlikely.  Jamaal Charles?  Clearly, no.  The rest of his team, however, is respectably solid.  Garcon's stock went up with RGIII's, as did Boldin's with Flacco's.  How that will play out in the long-run is yet to be determined, so for now, I still think he has a weaker team than Jeff's.  Maybe he should start thinking about cashing in on his QBs for an upgrade in RB.  Just sayin'.


6. odoyle RULES (1-0) [7]

Obviously, I am very pleased that I had the highest scoring player in fantasy this week.  Matt Ryan, I hope you continue to flourish in your throwing abilities.  I'm also happy with how my RBs performed.  But as was the case last week (and much of last year), I am still struggling at the WR position.  Struggling very hard.  At least my K / DEF picked up some of the slack and carried me to the victory and a respectable amount of points.  But I can't bank on that each week, so until the rest of my team proves itself each week, I'll head up the bottom half of the rankings.


7. JUSTINA OWNS (0-1) [2]

Justina's team was also a sufferer of wasted points on the bench.  It's not like she started the wrong players - who knew Fitzpatrick would do better than Cam, or Nate Washington + James Jones would outperform AJ Green + Hakeem Nicks?  She just had bad luck.  I think her starting WRs will bounce back from this week, but if she can't get more consistent points from her receivers, she may be in for a rough season.  Especially with her RB situation starting to look a bit iffy.


8. choubacca (0-1) [5]

Even with Foster and Demaryius Thomas's stellar performances, Aaron's team stunk it up this week.  His K / DEF is at part to blame for it, but I'm going to put more blame on his under-performing big-names, like Cruz (did anyone see how many easy passes he dropped on Wednesday?  You're paid millions of dollars, there's no excuse for you to drop those balls.), Antonio Gates, and Michael Turner (even though I didn't expect him to perform that well anyway).  He has a glimmer of hope on the bench in RGIII (In my opinion, he needs to be starting over Vick), but Richardson and Hillis don't seem to be sufficient replacements as an RB2 yet.  More question marks seem to be arising, even after the first week.


9. Terrific Tortoises (1-0) [10]
 
I'm sure David is happy about his win.  At least he's not in last place (or even second to last place) in our league right now.  Enjoy it while it lasts.  I think Andre Johnson looks like he'll be putting up numbers like he did 2-3 years ago, and Jimmy Graham will provide consistent points.  But beyond that, I'm having a hard time getting excited about any of his players.  Cutler may have some upside, but that's yet to be proven.  And Chris Johnson.. let's just not talk about him.  So sad.


10. errrdayimRussell'in (0-1) [8]

With the worst starting QB in our league this past week, it's not hard to see why Eric's team fell hard.  Will Russell Wilson bounce back?  I believe he will.  Will he bounce back enough to be this year's Cam Newton?  Very doubtful.  I'm not convinced that Pete Carroll really knows what he's doing, much less that Russell has the personnel around him to make a big season happen.  I think Eric's WRs will have better showings in the future, and with Ridley and BJGE as RB options, I think Eric can bounce back from this week's rough performance.  I would look in to an upgrade in QB, though.  Russell won't win the season for him this year, that's for sure.

Wednesday, September 5, 2012

**edit:this analysis/prediction was written BEFORE tonight's Cowboys/Giants game. I forgot that the NFL started on a Wednesday this year**

OH SNAP! football is back! and so are John Kasay's predictions.. (okay, enough with the lame intro.. let's just get to it)

WEEK 1

errrdayimRussell'in vs Terrific Tortoises 

QB: come on.. do i really need to even explain this one? RUSSELL WILSON for president. Eli doesn't stand a chance against the improved Cowboys defense this week. plus he'll have first game of the season jitters.
(PICK--> errrdayimRussell'in)

WR: this one is also fairly simple & i'm gonna go along with what Tim and everyone else has said. "Eric has the strongest groups of WR's in our league by far" Megatron will outscore Johnson, Harvin, and Decker combined
(PICK--> errrdayimRussell'in)

RB: this one is a little tougher.. i know S-Jax has a lot of mileage but he's always been a work horse and i'm hoping this is gonna be a great year. i'm also high on the rookie Doug Martin (he's been compared to Ray Rice.. so hopefully that's a good thing) David has CJ2K but i won't be giving him any credit until he proves he can be as good as he was a couple years ago. and Jonathan Stewart is his RB2? i love the panthers but owning anyone in Carolina's backfield except Cam is a joke)
(PICK--> errrdayimRussell'in)

TE: Witten probably won't play because of his lacerated spleen, suck it up dude. so i've gotta find a suitable fill in for him while D-Li has prob the #1 TE in terms of fantasy in jimmy graham.. i remember watching this dude on the hard court playing ball at U of Miami.. he sucked..
(PICK--> Terrific Tortoises)

K: I like Rob Bironas and his last name, therefore i'm going with him... plus the fact he's on my team. meh
(PICK--> errrdayimRussell'in)

DEF: Arizona has some dude named John Skeleton as their starting QB.. Seahawks are gonna eat him up and Russell will lead them to a 63-7 final score win I do like Detroit's defense as well but they're playing the Rams so I'm hoping S-Jax puts up ridiculous numbers. this was pretty biased. sue me.
(PICK--> errrdayimRussell'in)

WINNER: errrdayimRussell'in

odoyle RULES vs JUSTINA OWNS

QB: falcons say they're gonna air it out A LOT this season and i think Matt Ryan is very capable but I have to see how things are run in the Atl first.. plus Cam Newton is just too sexy (no homo) so he wins this match-up
(PICK--> JUSTINA OWNS)

WR: didn't Justina have AJ Green last year too? he was a monster and he will be again this season. Nicks is also a great WR (even if he was a cheater and he was suppose to be ineligible to play while at Carolina) and is Dez can stay outta jail. she's got a pretty strong WR group. Tim's WR's scare me. Jennings and Colston are really good but their offenses spread the ball around so much it will prob be hit or miss week to week
(PICK--> JUSTINA OWNS)

RB: i think McCoy will be the #1 back in fantasy this season (i was talking to Tim if I had #1 pick, I would draft McCoy over Foster, Rice, Rodgers) no joke Murray will have a monster year if he can come back healthy from his fractured foot so we'll see. I like the BEAST but he might not be feeling 100% at the moment. maybe some Skittles will help so he can taste the rainbow
(PICK--> odoyle RULES)

TE: Panthers think Olsen can be a top5 TE this year. i will have to agree in this OH SO RIDICULOUS offense Carolina will have this year
(PICK--> odoyle RULES)

K: who's older? Kasay or Akers? either way, props to Tim for sticking with Kasay from last year *unfortunately, those Saints that I hate so much cut him.. so now i hate them even more) I will give this to Tim just cause it was so sad to see he had to drop him
(PICK--> odoyle RULES)

DEF: i hate the Patriots and that punk Brady so...
(PICK--> JUSTINA OWNS)

WINNER: (tied 3-3) *edge to --> odoyle RULES

Rainbow Warriors vs Spider Pig

QB: one name.. Aaron Rodgers
(PICK--> Rainbow Warriors)

WR: Lloyd has yet to prove himself in that Patriot offense.. which may require an ivy league education because let's face it. Chad Johnson, or is it Ochocinco, or is it Johnson was a pretty talented WR and he had 2 catches in all of last season Desean Jackson has big play threat but he's so fragile i'm afraid every time someone hits him, he'll get broken. Antonio Brown will be Steelers #1 this year over Wallace. calling it now. which will lead me to Fitz and Austin. Fitz will put up decent numbers week in and out but we can't expect much until the Skeleton fella proves he's a competent QB. watch out for Austin as I think he'll have a huge week/year if he can somehow prevent his hamstrings from dying on him
(PICK--> Spider Pig)

RB: Jennings will be great until MJD gets back in the mix and Gore is just running outta gas. I had to put up w/ his crap last year and he didn't do anything but bring me disappointment. same thing this year. Charles and DeAngelo are hit or miss. if Charles can log at least 10-12 touches w/o him breaking his leg again, he'll be more than serviceable (which I think will happen this week)
(PICK--> Spider Pig)

TE: as much as a i hate the Patriots (I can't say it enough and it just feels that much better every time i do..) Gronk will be too much as he will compete w/ Graham for #1 TE in fantasy Vernon Davis will be good but he won't win this week in head to head vs Gronk
(PICK--> Rainbow Warriors)

K: Sea-Bass can prob hit 60+ yd FG's ALL DAY. that drug injecting, reefer smoking, law breaking, overweight kicker
(PICK--> Rainbow Warriors)

DEF: Houston, how could you let the best defensive player in the NFL go?! Mario Williams will make you pay. GO WOLFPACK
(PICK--> Spider Pig)

Winner: (tied 3-3) *edge to--> Rainbow Warriors


The Debbinator vs RelientK

QB: Brees will put up Rodgers' like numbers this week vs a suspect Redskins D but I have a feeling Romo is gonna do the same vs the Giants.. this will be close but I'm gonna go w/ the more consistent Brees
(PICK--> The Debbinator)

WR: Welker's numbers last year were a fluke. he'll get his receptions still cause he's Brady's little play toy but his yards and TD's will be way down this year. bank on that. Maclin is also like DeSean.. tiny&fragile.. not enticing to me. Steve "i will play with an infection in my foot" Smith is the only one I like for David this week. Marshall and Bowe are clear #1 options in their offenses with Jordy Nelson likely to be a top 1/2 WR also
(PICK--> RelientK)

RB: I was high on Forte for this upcoming season also (I would have picked him after McCoy) until I found out da Bears acquired Michael Bush. who's like 7'4 and 400 lbs.. waiting to steal goal line carry TD's from Forte. McGahee will have a great year because Peyton will be in Denver stretching D's but it's a brutal match up this week vs Steelers. Rice will score at his regular pace. no doubt. while I'm also very excited about Bradshaw. (I have him in another league I'm in) as he's finally the lone #1 guy there w/o Jacobs. he'll have a huge week i feel.
(PICK--> RelientK)

TE: Hernandez.. another stinkin Patriot who will prob end up a top5 TE.. sighhh i hate having to give them credit when it's due.
(PICK--> The Debbinator)

K: Matt Prater reminds me of Todd Sauerbrun for some reason.. remember him from the Panther's glory days?
(PICK--> RelientK)

DEF: Steel Curtain vs an unproven Peyton neck. ouch..
(PICK--> RelientK)

Winner: RelientK


THE Pain Train vs choubacca

QB: Stafford is up there with Rodgers/Brees/Brady. plus he can just throw it up within 10 yards of Megatron and he'll go get it. Vick fights dogs. I hate that guy
(PICK--> THE Pain Train)

WR: Julio Jones is gonna be THE break out WR according to all the experts this year. I'll have to agree. hopefully this will take more pressure off Roddy so he can get me 20 TD's this year. Stevie Johnson will have to prove to me he can repeat what happened last year and Wayne will be 200% better w/ Luck throwing to him instead of a long blond haired barbie.. oh wait i think her name was Curtis Painter. Aaron's WR's are sketchy. Cruz should be okay but I don't expect him to put up numbers like he had last year. teams know who he is now. they don't want to see him salsa after every touchdown
(PICK--> THE Pain Train)

RB: i've NEVER been big on Foster. everyone thinks he's so good because of the zone blocking scheme in Houston. teams will figure him out this year and he'll be an average RB. Turner "the burner" is burned out. he might as well play on one leg and he'll prob still move at the same pace he does now. if and that's a BIG "IF" McFadden and Freddy Jackson can remain healthy w/o having major ankle/knee/thigh/foot/ issues. watch out for Gabs' team
(PICK--> THE Pain Train)

TE: Finley has not lived up to expectations. i think it's being in that GB offense where the ball is spread around so much. Gates says he's feeling as good as he has in a couple of years. good news for the Chargers and my other boy Rivers.
(PICK--> choubacca)

K: meh *coin flip* Aaron wins
(PICK--> choubacca)

DEF: Raven's defense average age is like 54 but they're still one of the best around. (insert Ray Lewis entrance dance here)
(PICK--> THE Pain Train)

Winner: THE Pain Train


I know this week's predictions are a little long but I tried to give my overall season out look in my analysis this week as well. GOOD LUCK TO ALL THIS SEASON
and remember, RUSSELL WILSON for president!

Tuesday, September 4, 2012

2012 Crystal Ball

Hello fantasy gurus,

This week's edition of the Pigs of Baskerville will include preliminary power rankings and predictions for the season! MOAR ANALYTICS you may say?? Yes. The answer is yes.

Chart 1: 2011 Manager Efficiency


This chart ranks each team based on the value added by the manager over the course of the 2011 season. It was calculated by the "core" (top 10 ranked players) of each team from draft day to final day in 2011. The number is the difference in average offensive rank for each team. Why does this matter? If past performance is any indicator, the top managers in this list will find a way to improve their team this year through weaselly (watch out, Gabs) trades or waiver wire dominance. 

Chart 2: 2012 Yahoo Project Offensive Rank

This is just the 2012 rosters as of today and the average of their offensive rank via Yahoo's system. Flawed, but still statistically valid since their people get paid to run their analytics. 

Chart 3: Luke's 2012 Power Rankings (Week 1)

I rated each team by position (bench includes K/DST) on a scale of 1-10 and assigned each category a weight in the total team strength category (weight percentages are in the gray).

THE Pain Train - Holy crap Gabs has an impressive team. No real flaws anywhere except for maybe depth (particularly in RB) and injury risk. 

Rainbow Warriors - Having the best QB and TE def helps King Joffrey, but I don't see a lot of depth 

The Debbinator - Strong team across the board and great depth. I'm honestly a little skeptical about his RB's but giving him the benefit of the doubt here.

Spider Pig - RBs are the obvious chink in the Pig's armor, but if Jamaal Charles performs like a top-5 pick (2011 draft rank), then the Pig may be a force to reckon with

choubacca - Vick will be good if he can stay healthy, but Aaron's receivers are pretty pooptastic. I personally think Cruz will be good, but not incredible and you have to be aware of injuries. I should've given Aaron a higher injury score. Dangit. 

JUSTINA OWNS - One of the more enigmatic teams as of right now. We'll see if Cam hits a 2nd year slump or not, but her RBs could use some work... unless Jacuzzi heats up

odoyle RULES - I think Matt Ryan will be pretty good this year, but his WRs could use some work. Being a former owner of both Jennings and Colston, I can say that injuries and the Saints potential woes are going to be a bigger burden than Tim expected. 

Relient K - If MJD avoids the post-lockout struggles, Laura shoots up higher, but her real Achilles heel is at QB. Both her QBs are average fantasy performers and both have a track record of injuries. 

Terrific Tortoises - Also needs help at QB this year. His WRs could be a lot better if Andre stays healthy and Eric Decker fills in a Reggie Wayne-esque role in Denver. PS - I'm also rooting for CJ this year

errrdayimRussell'in - It takes lots of cajones to stand behind a QB that left you for Wisconsin, but I award you no points for it (actually I gave you 4). One of the best WR corps in the league here so maybe he can use them as bargaining chips later on for a better QB?

2012 Pig Predictions!

Finally, we have my predictions for how the league will turn out this year. I've combined the 3 analyses above to predict the final ranking for the regular season!


Given another strong start, King Joffrey will claim the throne ("the worst ones never die") followed by the Pig and Debbinator. Choubacca finagles his way into the top echelon with his crafty trades, and Gabs takes a dip thanks to Yahoo's lack of faith and his management track record. 

Playoff Picture (winner in bold):

Round 1:
Debbinator vs JUSTINA OWNS
choubacca vs THE Pain Train

Round 2:
Rainbow Warriors vs JUSTINA OWNS
Spider Pig vs THE Pain Train

Final:
Spider Pig vs JUSTINA OWNS

...Ok yea I just want revenge from last year's defeat. 

Thanks everybody for reading through this essay! And for Tim's tracking, here are my predictions:

Week 1 Predictions (winners only):

Winners: JUSTINA OWNS, Terrific Tortoises, Rainbow Warriors, Relient K, THE Pain Train

Week 1 Predictions

Can you believe the NFL season starts on Wednesday?!  It came a lot quicker than I expected it to come.  Anyways, I wanted to quickly revisit last season's predictions (only during the regular season.. I slacked off when it came to playoffs):

TimLukeDavid LinEricLauraJustina
Last week's record(3-2)(0-0)(0-0)(0-0)(0-0)(0-0)
Overall record(36-24)(11-9)(7-8)(24-16)(13-7)(9-6)
Percentage0.600.580.470.600.650.60

It's somewhat encouraging that I did better than 50%, although not that much better.  I'm aiming for 0.70 this year, but that may end up being too ambitious.  Who am I kidding, I might as well be flipping a coin for most of these picks anyway.


odoyle RULES v. JUSTINA OWNS
This week is a test-run for my WRs.  I don't think all 3 will do great, but I'm hoping for the best.  I think Justina has me beat in all positions except maybe RB, but even then, I could see Lynch outperforming McCoy.  Cam's going to break my heart one way or the other, so I see this matchup as a lose-lose situation.
Winner: JUSTINA OWNS

errrdayimRussell'in v. Terrific Tortoises
I have a feeling Russell Wilson will play to Eric's expectations this week.  If that be the case, I think with his stronger WRs, and assuming that he finds a replacement for Witten before Wednesday's game, the matchup is in Eric's favor.  I'm sure David is crossing his fingers that Johnson and Graham will be worth their rounds 1 and 2 picks, and even though I'll be rooting for them (for David's sake), I think I should go with common sense on this one.
Winner: errrdayimRussell'in

Rainbow Warriors v. Spider Pig
Jeff is probably happy he picked up Gerhart now, with Peterson's status for Sunday uncertain.  However, it might not even be a bad idea for him to start Jennings.  Just a thought.  Picking the winner of this one is no fun, because there are too many question marks on both teams (Jeff: Lloyd has yet to prove himself, Jackson is a lazy bum, Peterson is kind of hurt, and there are too many backup RBs to choose from.  Luke: Wallace has been out of practice, Austin and Charles are returning from injuries).  Since Jeff's team seems to have more severe question marks, I'm going to have to go with..
Winner: Spider Pig

The Debbinator v. RelientK
Good news for Laura, MJD finally showed up for practice.  Bad news is he probably won't play Sunday, and even if he does, I doubt he'll be that effective.  Even with Bradshaw in her lineup to replace MJD, I think David has enough firepower, especially at the WR position, to hold Laura off this week.  I don't think it will be as big of a margin of victory as Yahoo predicts, but I think Laura will suffer early on for MJD's bone-headedness.
Winner: The Debbinator

THE Pain Train v. choubacca
How can I put Gabs at #1 in my power rankings and not choose him to win?  I still think his team is one of the strongest in our league until proven otherwise.  Aaron may put up a fight, but I think he'll fall short, with the blame falling on Vick, Turner, and his lousy WR2 and WR3s.
Winner: THE Pain Train

Saturday, September 1, 2012

Pre-season Rankings 2012 (#1-2)

1. THE Pain Train

QB
Matthew Stafford
Joe Flacco
RB
Darren McFadden
Fred Jackson
CJ Spiller
LeGarrette Blount
Ronnie Brown
WR
Julio Jones
Stevie Johnson
Reggie Wayne
Santonio Holmes
Randy Moss
TE/K/DEF
Jermichael Finley
Stephen Gostkowski
Baltimore Defense

Gabs performs a complete 180 and actually shows up to the draft on time this year.  He claims he was there last season, but I'm pretty sure Yahoo autopicked all the important picks for him.  I think he "had trouble logging on"?  Anyways, as long as his team can avoid injury (especially Stafford and McFadden), I think his team looks predictably solid.  It was smart of him to pick up both Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller, and he's got a good WR1 and WR2.  His weakest position right now is probably WR3, but I'd take that any week.


2. JUSTINA OWNS

QB
Cam Newton
Ryan Fitzpatrick
RB
Marshawn Lynch
Reggie Bush
Michael Bush
Jacquizz Rodgers
WR
AJ Green
Hakeem Nicks
Dez Bryant
Nate Washington
Nate Burleson
James Jones
TE/K/DEF
Brandon Pettigrew
David Akers
Green Bay Defense

As the returning champion, Justina is back with something to prove: that last year wasn't a fluke.  And to be honest, I think she's off to a pretty good start.  With one of the best QBs in the league, a reasonably decent WR squad, a good (yes, I think Lynch will be pretty good) RB1 with some manageable options for RB2, and some promising potential on the bench (Jacquzzi, the Nates, and James Jones), Justina is poised to defend her title.  Doubters and haters, beware.


And here's the final list, folks:
1. THE Pain Train
2. JUSTINA OWNS
3. Rainbow Warriors
4. Spider Pig
5. choubacca
6. RelientK
7. odoyle RULES
8. errrdayimRussell'in
9. The Debbinator
10. Terrific Tortoises