Fellow fantasy players, a quarter of the regular season has come and gone. We've seen some surprises (The Cardinals??) and some not-so-surprises (Houston). With 1/4 of the season in tow, the Pig has decided to share some of his Nu Thang insights. Since he's job searching and working simultaneously, there will be no fancy algorithms and analytics. Instead, these insights are courtesy of the following:
(Get it? Gut feeling? Cause hot dogs are made from pig guts)
- The strong teams on paper have been exceptionally susceptible to weekly performance variations (see RelientK). Will these teams even out over the course of the season, or will some of these big name players continue with medicore performances?
- Some of us gambled on draft day. Some of us won. Others did not. This is not comprehensive, but let's take a look at the list!
Hots
- RGIII [choubacca] - biggest delight of the early season. Can he replicate Cam's rookie season, or will he start to show some wear and tear as the season progresses?
- Matt Ryan [odoyle RULES] - perhaps the only shining gem on his team... This guy is the real deal. Interestingly enough, Ryan's stats through his first several seasons mirror that of Peyton Manning's.
- Jamaal Charles [Spider Pig] - Just so everyone knows. Aaron and I have a side bet on who scores more fantasy points this year between Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis.
- Trent Richardson [choubacca] - it takes guts drafting a guy on the Browns. Nice.
- CJ Spiller [THE PAIN TRAIN] - OK. He's only sort of hot right now. More Gretel than Hansel.
- Peyton Manning [Spider Pig] - Will somebody trade me for either Peyton or Tom?? It's a shame watching him ride the bench. Am willing to cut deals here.
Nots- Jacuzzi Something [Green Nicks and Cam] - Falcons remind me of Indy a few years ago. They don't really need or use their RB's. Sorry brah
- CJ2 [Terrible Titans T_T] - T_T indeed.
- Green Bay Offense [Multiple teams] - Most notably Jennings and Rodgers. Things are looking up for Rodgers though. Not so much for Jennings
- Eagles Offense [Multiple teams] - Even LeSean McCoy is underperforming a little bit. But somehow the Eagles are winning? Something doesn't quite add up...
- Ryan Matthews [Terrible Titans T_T] - Yahoo has his projected O-Rank at 22. Actual is 245. Lady luck does not look favorably on the Terrible Titans :\
- Antonio Gates [choubacca] - Aaron's romance with Gates may be coming to an end as he's underperforming yet again this season (projected O-Rank 49, Actual is 214
- This waiver wire sucks. Here's why. The free agents with the biggest impact almost always happen at the beginning of the season (Amendola, A. Morris, etc). If you happen to lose your first game or two (choubacca) despite having a good team, then the waiver wire primes you to stack your team with decent starters. Furthermore, the spread between teams in the first few weeks is very thin (1-2 game difference), so it's not really apt to "rank" them at such an early point. Motion to return back to the old waiver wire next year?
- To support my claim about it becoming a QB-centric league... I'm sure if someone did an empirical analysis on % of total points scored by the RB positions versus QB+WR positions over the course of the last 5 years, we would definitely see the trend away from RB's. Just a gut feeling.
- Power Rankings!
Tier 1
1 - choubacca [5] - Aaron cashed out with Trent Richardson and RGIII big time. What's better is that TR didn't start performing until week 2-3 and he benched RGIII at the beginning... opening the season with 2 losses. With that, he was able to utilize his waiver priority to pick up gems like Amendola and create a well-rounded team. Is it worth mentioning that Aaron is the front runner to five-peat as winner of "team with most waiver moves?"
2- Spider Pig [4] - Jamaal Charles has been grood, but the anchor here has really been Matt Bryant + Chicago DEF. Can they keep pushing the Pig to the top? Logic says to discount these two positions, but they've been pretty clutch. PBJ's are also incredibly clutch.
3- Green Nicks and Cam [6] - "Go big or go home" is the motto of this team. I have faith that Reggie Bush will stay productive and Nicks will get healthy. If both happen, you better watch out cause Justina is coming to town.
Tier 2
4 - Rainbow Warriors [2] - Aaron Rodgers will be like Lord Tywin Lanister for King Joffrey and bail him out once Rodgers rounds back into form. Getting Hartline is a good move, and it remains to be seen how consistent Lloyd, Gore, and Antonio Brown can be.
5 - THE PAIN TRAIN [1] - The Bills RB situation in addition to Stafford's mediocrity really hurts Gabs. This is where some active team management can go a long way... *hint hint*
6 - The Debbinator [3] - Decent record, but his WR3 and RB2 look a bit spotty. He's got crazy depth at RB though, so if Arian Foster goes down or if Mendenhall comes back with a bang, then the Debbinator will rise like the Dark Knight.
7 - RelientK [8] - Great team on paper, but can't seem to get a win! I wish I could provide some comforting words for you, Laura, but all I can give you is this teacup pig:
Tier 3
8 - odoyle RULES [7] - Matt Ryan has been stellar, but Tim needs to make some moves to get back in the game. His is the tier 3 team with the most opportunity to jump in the rankings. Fosho
9 - Terrible Titans T_T [9] - At least he's consistently at 9? He's had some crappy luck coming out of the draft (CJ2, Ryan Matthews, etc). Hopefully there should be some FA gems in the next few weeks that he can capitalize on to bolster his team strength. The fact that David has the SF DEF bumps him to #9 on my power rankings because I love the 49ers (and am no longer ashamed to admit it). Nobody said rankings had to be objective.
10 - errrdayimRussell'in [10] - Eric doesn't even have WR3 this week (poor bye week planning). Phillip Rivers was a good pickup, but he needs some more reliable long-term solutions. His WRs still look strong, but if I were him, I'd start using them as chips to upgrade other positions.
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