2012 Draft Analysis

Ladies and Gentlemen, below is a round-by-round analysis of how I think the draft went.  I will soon release the pre-season power rankings as well, so be on the look-out for that!

Round 1

Pick	Team	Player
1	Rainbow Warriors	Aaron Rodgers
2	choubacca	Arian Foster
3	RelientK	Ray Rice
4	odoyle RULES	LeSean McCoy
5	errrdayimRussell'in	Calvin Johnson
6	THE Pain Train	Darren McFadden
7	Spider Pig	Tom Brady
8	The Debbinator	Drew Brees
9	JUSTINA OWNS	Cam Newton
10	Terrific Tortoises	Jimmy Graham

Breakdown: Jeff starts the draft with an interesting, but not unwise pick.  I was honestly hoping the first three picks would go by the Yahoo autodraft so I could have Rodgers, but Jeff beat me to it.  Gabs goes for his buddy McFadden, in spite of the heart ache he got from the Oakland RB last year.  I get the feeling he'll be heart broken again due to injuries.  It's somewhat surprising (but not really) that three QBs get taken 7-9.  I'm not sold on Brees with all that's been going on with the Saints, but Brady and Cam are solid first round picks for Luke and Justina, even though Luke autodrafted (I think?).  David Li goes with Jimmy Graham to end the round, and all I have to ask is, "Why?"  I'm not convinced a tight end this early in the draft is a good idea, regardless of how great he may be.
Biggest Winner: Rainbow Warriors
Biggest Loser: Terrific Tortoises

Round 2

Pick	Team	Player
11	Terrific Tortoises	Chris Johnson
12	JUSTINA OWNS	Marshawn Lynch
13	The Debbinator	Matt Forte
14	Spider Pig	Larry Fitzgerald
15	THE Pain Train	Matthew Stafford
16	errrdayimRussell'in	Roddy White
17	odoyle RULES	DeMarco Murray
18	RelientK	Maurice Jones-Drew
19	choubacca	Trent Richardson
20	Rainbow Warriors	Rob Gronkowski

Breakdown: David Li picks up Chris Johnson.. again.  Not as early as last year, which is a good thing, I guess.  It'll be interesting to see whether the pick pays off.  Justina totally takes my advice and goes with the ugliness factor in Marshawn Lynch.  I;m still not sure why she picked Cam first, since he's so pretty, but I guess this makes up for it.  Word on the street is Mike Tice is going to go timeshare with Forte and Bush, so I'm uncertain that David Lin made a good decision taking him so early.  Gabs makes a smart move in picking up Stafford, taking arguably the last elite QB in the draft.  With Roddy White as his WR2, it's clear Eric is loading up on the WRs early on, running in the opposite direction as all the other drafters.  It may pay off, put I'm convinced an elite RB is still more valuable than an elite WR (outside of Megatron).  I'm rooting for MJD just so Laura can have productive RBs this year.  Either way, MJD rounds out Laura's starting RBs very nicely.  If he stops being such a diva, this would easily be the best pick of the round.  Trent Richardson is all hype.  Aaron picked him up way too early in the draft, even as an RB2.
Biggest Winner: THE Pain Train
Biggest Loser: The Debbinator

Round 3

Pick	Team	Player
21	Rainbow Warriors	Adrian Peterson
22	choubacca	Victor Cruz
23	RelientK	Brandon Marshall
24	odoyle RULES	Greg Jennings
25	errrdayimRussell'in	Steven Jackson
26	THE Pain Train	Fred Jackson
27	Spider Pig	Jamaal Charles
28	The Debbinator	Wes Welker
29	JUSTINA OWNS	AJ Green
30	Terrific Tortoises	Andre Johnson

Breakdown: We've got the first round of less-than-average RB1s falling into the laps of people that went counter-culture this year.  Adrian Peterson was so 3 years ago, but will have to do for Jeff.  Same goes with Steven Jackson for Eric and Jamaal Charles for Luke.  I'm not a fan of such weak RB1s, but I guess they've got other strategies in mind.  Laura evidently thinks the Cutler-Marshall connection will be money this year, which may not (or may) be a bad assumption to make.  I like that Jennings fell to me - I'm hoping he'll still be as good as he used to be - I mean, he's got flippin' Aaron Rodgers throwing to him, right?  Welker, Green, and Johnson are good picks to end the round.

Biggest Winner: odoyle RULES

Biggest Loser: Rainbow Warriors

Round 4

Pick	Team	Player
31	Terrific Tortoises	Ryan Matthews
32	JUSTINA OWNS	Hakeem Nicks
33	The Debbinator	Steve Smith
34	Spider Pig	Mike Wallace
35	THE Pain Train	Julio Jones
36	errrdayimRussell'in	Doug Martin
37	odoyle RULES	Matt Ryan
38	RelientK	Jordy Nelson
39	choubacca	Michael Turner
40	Rainbow Warriors	Frank Gore

Breakdown: David Li gets a nice pickup with Matthews falling this far.  It sounds like he's pretty confident about his collarbone healing quickly.  But even if he's not back by Week 1, when he's at full-go, he can be lethal.  The other teams filled up their WR spots, as was the wise thing to do at this point.  I think Julio Jones for Gabs has good potential.  Which kind of explains my Matt Ryan pick.  I think I picked him up prematurely, but I wanted him over the other QBs left, so I figured I'd go for it.  Laura gets a pretty good pick in Jordy Nelson.  I'm not sure why Aaron even took Turner when he had so many other open positions to fill.  And Jeff settling for Frank Gore as his RB2 makes me laugh.
Biggest Winner: Terrific Tortoises
Biggest Loser: odoyle RULES

Round 5

Pick	Team	Player
41	Rainbow Warriors	Brandon Lloyd
42	choubacca	Demaryius Thomas
43	RelientK	Ahmad Bradshaw
44	odoyle RULES	Marques Colston
45	errrdayimRussell'in	Vincent Jackson
46	THE Pain Train	Stevie Johnson
47	Spider Pig	Darren Sproles
48	The Debbinator	Willis McGahee
49	JUSTINA OWNS	Reggie Bush
50	Terrific Tortoises	Eli Manning

Breakdown: Brandon Lloyd has promise with the Brady throwing to him, but it's yet to be proven.  Thus, Jeff's WRs have a weak start, since his first four picks were non-WRs.  The Demaryius Thomas-Peyton Manning connection I'm not as much of a believer in, but as a WR2 for Aaron, it's not a bad choice.  Laura was doing such a good job of picking until now.  Ahmad Bradshaw has very little upside, and she already had 2 pretty solid RB selections.  Was that an autodraft pick?  Eric finishes up his last WR spots with a pretty nice WR3.  He definitely has the strongest group of WRs in our league.  Luke, David, and Justina are stuck with Sproles, McGahee, and Reggie Bush as their RB2s.  Sucks to be them.  I guess that's the price you pay for grabbing a QB first round.  I think it might end up working out for them, though.  Solid choice for David Li to pick up Eli.
Biggest Winner: Terrific Tortoises
Biggest Loser: JUSTINA OWNS

Round 6

Pick	Team	Player
51	Terrific Tortoises	Percy Harvin
52	JUSTINA OWNS	Dez Bryant
53	The Debbinator	Aaron Hernandez
54	Spider Pig	Miles Austin
55	THE Pain Train	Reggie Wayne
56	errrdayimRussell'in	BenJarvus Green-Ellis
57	odoyle RULES	Torrey Smith
58	RelientK	Tony Romo
59	choubacca	Michael Vick
60	Rainbow Warriors	DeSean Jackson

Breakdown: Hernandez seems like too early of a pickup for David Lin, but evidently he believes Brady can share the ball enough to make him worth a 6th round pick.  I'm liking Reggie Wayne's potential with Andrew Luck for Gabs.  BenJarvus, however, has never really impressed me.  As a RB3, though, it's not a bad choice for Eric.  I just think he should be more worried about his QB before going for an RB3.  From this point in the draft, I'm pretty much going primarily on potential.  I'm done with settling for so-so players with no upside.  Hence, my Torrey Smith pick.  Definitely early, but I'm hoping it's worth it.  Laura couldn't pick up Eli (she probably didn't want to anyway), so Romo was a good alternative.  Aaron gets stuck with the rollercoaster-ride Vick, who is the epitome of frustration in fantasy.  Good luck with that.
Biggest Winner: THE Pain Train
Biggest Loser: The Debbinator

Round 7

Pick	Team	Player
61	Rainbow Warriors	Antonio Brown
62	choubacca	Antonio Gates
63	RelientK	Dwayne Bowe
64	odoyle RULES	Shonn Greene
65	errrdayimRussell'in	Donald Brown
66	THE Pain Train	Jermichael Finley
67	Spider Pig	Vernon Davis
68	The Debbinator	Jeremy Maclin
69	JUSTINA OWNS	Brandon Pettigrew
70	Terrific Tortoises	Eric Decker

Breakdown: There seems to have been a run for TEs in this round, which is understandable, as people try to fill in their starting spots before plugging in their backups.  Antonio Brown was a nice pickup this late in the draft for Jeff.  It's a good WR3 for him in spite of his mediocre WR1 and WR2, and I think Aaron Rodgers will compensate for the gaps in WR scoring.  Dwayne Bowe has a terrible QB passing to him, so no thanks, Laura.  Here's my rationale behind Shonn Greene - he's the only possible ray of light for such a sucky Jets team.  Surely he'll be utilized to his full potential this year.  At least I'm hoping for it.  Donald Brown has upside, especially if Luck frees up the running game a little with his passing prowess.  It seems like Eric is with me on picking based primarily on potential at this point in the draft.  He also seems to be going with lots of RBs, since he won't know who is going to flop.  It's not a bad idea, but makes for stressful game-day decisions.  I think David Li had a really good pickup in Eric Decker.  If (big if) Peyton plays even close to how he played before, I think Decker, not Demaryius, is going to get more looks and receptions.  That's just my gut feeling.
Biggest Winner: Rainbow Warriors
Biggest Loser: RelientK

Round 8

Pick	Team	Player
71	Terrific Tortoises	San Francisco Defense
72	JUSTINA OWNS	Nate Washington
73	The Debbinator	Philip Rivers
74	Spider Pig	Chicago Defense
75	THE Pain Train	Baltimore Defense
76	errrdayimRussell'in	Justin Blackmon
77	odoyle RULES	Titus Young
78	RelientK	Fred Davis
79	choubacca	Michael Floyd
80	Rainbow Warriors	Ryan Williams

Breakdown: The first defenses are finally chosen.  Round 8, arguably a little early, but whatever floats people's boats.  Given that defenses can be worth more than we attribute them to be (negative points are no fun), I'm ok with people selecting the better ones earlier.  Nate Washington has upside if Locker proves he is worthy of playing in the NFL.  I'm not too keen on Philip Rivers, but as a QB2, David Lin could have done worse.  Eric, Aaron, and I go with some sleeper WRs in Blackmon, Floyd, and Young - I'm thinking Aaron will be the loser in that trio.  Jeff reaches for Ryan Williams, sleeper RB, and my hunch is he'll be kicking himself for that one in the near future.  I'm not sure when the last time the Cardinals had a good RB - Emmitt Smith?
Biggest Winner: errrdayimRussell'in
Biggest Loser: Rainbow Warriors

Round 9

Pick	Team	Player
81	Rainbow Warriors	Kenny Britt
82	choubacca	Robert Griffin III
83	RelientK	Pittsburgh Defense
84	odoyle RULES	David Wilson
85	errrdayimRussell'in	Stevan Ridley
86	THE Pain Train	Santonio Holmes
87	Spider Pig	Peyton Manning
88	The Debbinator	Santana Moss
89	JUSTINA OWNS	Michael Bush
90	Terrific Tortoises	Jonathan Stewart

Breakdown: Some pretty nice QBs fall to Round 9 - RGIII and Peyton.  RGIII as a backup for Vick I can understand, but Peyton as backup for Brady?  Maybe I'm missing something in Luke's logic.  Kenny Britt is a bigger liability than asset, in my opinion.  I'm keen on David Wilson paying big dividends for me, so I'm happy I could pick him up.  Stevan Ridley is a smart handcuff selection to provide Eric with BJGE insurance.  I think Bush and Stewart are also good choices this late (assuming Stewart's ankle isn't hurt too badly).  Santonio and Santana?  Not so much.
Biggest Winner: errrdayimRussell'in
Biggest Loser: The Debbinator

Round 10

Pick	Team	Player
91	Terrific Tortoises	Darrius Heyward-Bey
92	JUSTINA OWNS	Green Bay Defense
93	The Debbinator	Philadelphia Defense
94	Spider Pig	Pierre Garcon
95	THE Pain Train	Joe Flacco
96	errrdayimRussell'in	Robert Meachem
97	odoyle RULES	Andrew Luck
98	RelientK	Mike Williams
99	choubacca	Laurent Robinson
100	Rainbow Warriors	Houston Defense

Breakdown: I had a huge internal conflict as to whether to take Luck or Wilson.  I'm glad Luck played well his last preseason game, to somewhat justify my pick.  Luke got a nice pickup in Garcon.  I'm not so convinced that Robinson will pay off for Aaron, though.  It seems like Gabbert is connecting pretty well with Blackmon.
Biggest Winner: Spider Pig
Biggest Loser: choubacca

Round 11

Pick	Team	Player
101	Rainbow Warriors	Denarius Moore
102	choubacca	Mario Manningham
103	RelientK	Ben Roethlisberger
104	odoyle RULES	Sidney Rice
105	errrdayimRussell'in	Russell Wilson
106	THE Pain Train	CJ Spiller
107	Spider Pig	DeAngelo Williams
108	The Debbinator	Ben Tate
109	JUSTINA OWNS	Ryan Fitzpatrick
110	Terrific Tortoises	Jay Cutler

Breakdown: Eric waits until Round 11 to pick his starting QB.  Round 11.  Incredibly bold move.  I'm of the opinion that Wilson will do really well.  But that's what I thought about Chris Weinke back in the day, so whatever.  Regardless, Eric will at least have his Wolfpack pride to hang on to.  I can empathize, being a Panthers fan during the George Seifert era.  The Seattle part of me is rooting for Wilson, and I'm also hoping it'll pay off on my Sidney Rice selection.  I like the picks of Spiller, DeAngelo, and Tate - especially DeAngelo, now that Stewart's status is iffy.  I'm not sure I see much upside to Mario Manningham, though.
Biggest Winner: Spider Pig
Biggest Loser: choubacca

Round 12

Pick	Team	Player
111	Terrific Tortoises	Beanie Wells
112	JUSTINA OWNS	James Jones
113	The Debbinator	Malcom Floyd
114	Spider Pig	Kevin Smith
115	THE Pain Train	Stephen Gostkowski
116	errrdayimRussell'in	Josh Freeman
117	odoyle RULES	Cedric Benson
118	RelientK	Lance Moore
119	choubacca	Mason Crosby
120	Rainbow Warriors	Sebastian Janikowski

Breakdown: I'm still not sure why people pick Kickers before the last round, especially when there are still sleepers out there to snatch up.  Is there that big of a difference between the best and the 10th-best Kicker?  I'm also surprised Justina chose James Jones over Randall Cobb, but who knows what will happen.  Eric selects Freeman as his backup, and at this point, he doesn't have many options to choose from.  The Bucs recently questioned Freeman's accuracy, but that shouldn't come as much of a surprise.  All I know is the Panthers are going to crush them in their season opener.  Panther pride.  I'm happy about my Benson pickup - yeah, he's old, but I like what I've seen in preseason.
Biggest Winner: odoyle RULES
Biggest Loser: Everyone who picked a Kicker

Round 13

Pick	Team	Player
121	Rainbow Warriors	Rashad Jennings
122	choubacca	Coby Fleener
123	RelientK	Michael Crabtree
124	odoyle RULES	Greg Olsen
125	errrdayimRussell'in	Jason Witten
126	THE Pain Train	Randy Moss
127	Spider Pig	Anquan Boldin
128	The Debbinator	Rashard Mendenhall
129	JUSTINA OWNS	David Akers
130	Terrific Tortoises	Dan Bailey

Breakdown: Rashad Jennings has super potential, especially if MJD holds out, and especially if (when) Jeff realizes the rest of his RBs pretty much suck.  I'm happy I ended up with Greg Olsen.  I feel strange without a Panther on my team.  I'm not sold on Randy Moss, but Gabs has little to lose at this point.  I'm also not a big fan of Mendenhall - I would have definitely chose Hillis (or even Jacuzzi, see below) before him.  But someone's gotta pick the bad players, right?
Biggest Winner: Rainbow Warriors
Biggest Loser: The Debbinator

Round 14

Pick	Team	Player
131	Terrific Tortoises	Doug Baldwin
132	JUSTINA OWNS	Jacquizz Rodgers
133	The Debbinator	Tony Gonzalez
134	Spider Pig	Greg Little
135	THE Pain Train	Ronnie Brown
136	errrdayimRussell'in	Seattle Defense
137	odoyle RULES	New England Defense
138	RelientK	Mark Ingram
139	choubacca	Peyton Hillis
140	Rainbow Warriors	Toby Gerhart

Breakdown: Justina noticed if you put the i at the back of his name, Jacquizz could easily turn into Jacuzzi, which is why she chose him.  This is the person who won our league last year.  Besides that pick, there were a lot of picks with potential this round.  Greg Little was a nice selection for Luke (go Heels), and I'm semi-surprised Tony Gonzalez, Peyton Hillis, and Ronnie Brown fell this far.  Gabs could get some decent points out of Brown if Ryan Matthews is still out when the season starts.  Doug Baldwin also has potential, especially if Russell Wilson blows up, as does Toby Gerhart, if Peterson gets hurt.  It's hard for me to get excited about Mark Ingram, though - he doesn't seem to have much upside.
Biggest Winner: THE Pain Train
Biggest Loser: RelientK

Round 15

Pick	Team	Player
141	Rainbow Warriors	Isaac Redman
142	choubacca	New York Defense
143	RelientK	Matt Prater
144	odoyle RULES	John Kasay
145	errrdayimRussell'in	Rob Bironas
146	THE Pain Train	LeGarrette Blount
147	Spider Pig	Matt Bryant
148	The Debbinator	Neil Rackers
149	JUSTINA OWNS	Nate Burleson
150	Terrific Tortoises	Roy Helu

Breakdown: Besides Kickers, the last round was full of people that are hard to get excited about.  Nate Burleson may end up being a smart pickup.  LeGarrette Blount has been superseded by Doug Martin, and I feel the same way about Isaac Redman as I do about Mendenhall.  Redskins RBs are to be avoided at all costs, so I can't imagine Helu being more than an afterthought once David Li realizes his lack of.. everything.

Biggest Winner: JUSTINA OWNS

Biggest Loser: Terrific Tortoises



Who had the best draft?  Well, Luke obviously thinks he did, but he forgot that Yahoo picked at least 2 or 3 of his 15 players for him, and he's using a fatally flawed Yahoo prediction system to perform his "calculations."  If you simply count who won "Biggest Winner" above, you'd find that Gabs and Jeff tied for best draft.  I'm ok with that conclusion for now.  When I come up with my pre-season rankings, I think that'll give us a better idea of who actually has the best team.  Of course, all in the opinion of just one person - me.

Overall, it was a fun draft.  I'm disappointed not everyone could join us for the Google+ Hangout, but it may have made the draft go longer, with all the distractions that were going on.  I'm glad pretty much everyone could make it for all of the draft, though (minus Luke).  Here's to the new fantasy football season!  :)