Sherlock Pig and the Case of the Best Manager

The pig was smoking his pipe, sipping on some scotch when he was approached by a young dame by the name of Chubs, wondering who had the leetest managerial skills in all the lands. With some sleuthing, he created the following analysis:

Key Assumptions:

• Analysis is based off each team's core players, which is the team's hypothetical starters in a given week (taking current bye week into account) plus their highest scoring non-QB bench/flex player. 
• Analysis bases total core team points based on two scenarios - current week and week 1 rosters. 
• Kickers do not count as real people (sorry John Kasay) since they score pretty similarly and there isn't a whole lot of strategy involved with managing kickers.

Analysis:

The pig considers three metrics in his study of the best manager. Points added/subtracted per core personnel moves, points added/subtracted per total moves, and total point differential between week 1 and current.

Managerial skill ranking by points per core move:

Looking at points added per core move, it would appear that the Rainbow Warrior is our league's best manager. The only core move here is Felix Jones to Willis McGahee. While this did his team a big upgrade, it's a little misleading since he only really made one move (sample size too small perhaps?). 

Managerial skill ranking by points per total moves:

This is also misleading, as Relient K is tied for the least number of total moves, hence why she gets the highest points on a total move basis. Furthermore, one could argue that total moves is more to manage the status quo or gain potential rather than true team improvement. 

Managerial skill by total point differential:

Jackpot. While you may jump straight to averages, the total variance illustrates a great story. Four teams have strategically positioned their teams to be better over the course of the season through active management, and most non-quantitative analyses would put these four teams at the top. 

• Aaron, always a meddler with his team, picked up Aaron Rodgers and Fred Jackson over the course of the season, while only losing Arian Foster and Marshawn Lynch (among other moves).
• odoyle's brilliant pickups of Cam Newton and Demarco DeMurray has done wonders for his team. He also stole Steve Smith from the Pig (I want him back).
• Pig rebounded from losing Jamaal Charles early with pickups of Reggie Bush and MJD (via trade). His numbers are slightly misleading as Michael Bush was counted in his week 1 numbers (good drafting!)

What have we learned? Make as many moves as you need in order to succeed. Sometimes, your team needs revamping, as you can see that the top two in managing prowess have ethe most core moves and are 2nd and 3rd in terms of total moves. However, make sure you make the right moves and be patient with your team, lest you end up like the Debbinator (he hurts because he dealt away Aaron Rodgers and Fred Jackson, but only gained Arian Foster. Also, his stats may be misleading as his starting QB is Carson Palmer, but for statistics sake, the Pig used A. Dalton's numbers)

One last quip before power rankings for coach/manager of the year... a quick look at week 1 pts vs current week points not only shows us the best managers, but also shows who drafted the best (or were the luckiest).

If held constant, Rainbow Justina and Debbinator would have the best teams in the league right now, from a total core team points view. Justina and Rainbow currently sit at the top, given their great drafting skills, not necessarily their managing skills. Particularly Rainbow (does Jeff even look at his team each week?). Justina cashed in with Megatron and Ray Rice. 

So without further ado, current standings for coach of the year:

1. Aaron Chou (aaronisyourdaddy) - need any explanation here?
2. Tim Chang (odoyle RULES) - he's made some serious moves thanks to the resurgence of the Panthers offense and  his team will be a hot pick for the low-seeded upset come tournament time
3. Luke Lin (Spider Pig) - this two time champion has struggled with underperforming players (Eagles) and big injuries (Best, Charles) but is still relevant in the playoff picture thanks to his managing skillz
4. Justina Chen (JUSTINA OWNS) - great drafting skills (luck?) with just the right moves (TBD after this Stafford trade) has put her team at the top of the league for the first time in her coaching career
5. Eric San (JohnKasay#1) - His changes haven't been monumental, outside of his picking up of Mike Wallace, but a strong core certainly helps his cause. His team is dangerous.
6. Jeff Chen (Rainbow Warriors) - purely on his yearly reliance on the Patriots, which has manifested in a great draft. Luckily he hasn't sabotaged his team... yet
7. David Li (Terrible Tortoises) - Matt Forte is a win in my book. This will make his team much stronger going forward. Too early to say that he got the better end of the deal?
8. David Lin (Debbinator) - OK so he's the only one with negative impact between week 1 and current BUT I think we can attribute most of that to his boneheaded dealing away of Aaron Rodgers. Ultimately, it's hard to say he's a bad manager when he drafted 2nd best and is currently 5th in the league. 
9. Laura Jones (RelientK) - 2nd worst team in the league has made a few moves to improve her team. This is why she's no longer last place.
10. Gabriel "Gabs" Yeung (the Pain Train) - last place team has tried revamping his squad (7 core personnel moves) but can't seem to find a winning formula. Don't worry, you're 1st place so far for the "Mike Singletary Coach of the Year award" 

Til next time...

Further Explanation:

The analysis is done with total points of your current team "core" (starters + top reserve) versus your "core" team if you had kept your week 1 players. The points are current year to date totals. For example...

Justina Owns (current): 1123.36 total points

• M. Stafford 
•  AJ Green 
•  B. Marshall
•  Calvin Johnson
•  Ray Rice
•  BJ Green Ellis
•  F. Davis
•  P. Garcon 
•  Kicker
•  Baltimore  

Justina Owns (week 1 hypothetical): 1049.02 total points

• B. Roethlisberger
•  K. Britt
•  B. Marshall
•  Calvin Johnson
•  Ray Rice
•  Matt Forte
•  Vernon Davis
•  Kicker 
•  S. janikowski
•  Pittsburgh