A Study of Last Season's Draft

As we enter the third season of auction drafting, most of us have probably become familiar enough with the process to feel comfortable going in to draft day, but not all of us can rely on experience to help.  For example, I don't think Duke has actually been there for a full draft - and probably won't this season, either.  Luke also had to miss out last season, and for some reason still unknown to anyone alive on this planet, trusted Aaron / Yahoo / V.Putin to draft for him.  2017 will mark Laura's return to our league, and she has yet to dabble in the dark arts of the auction draft.  So needless to say, not everyone will be on the same playing field.

With that said, my feelings about the upcoming draft / season?

But before I look further into the future, I decided to take a look at the past, specifically at last season's draft.  I came up with this fancy algorithm / spreadsheet / magic that put a value on each pick of last season's draft.  I won't go into too much detail and lose all my readers, but basically, if someone paid top dollar for a player that ended up being a dud (for whatever reason - age, poor performance, injuries), then one could say that person overpaid for the player and that player was a poor value.  On the flip side, if someone paid next to nothing for a player who ended up having a breakout season, then that player was a great value.  I based this largely on how much was paid in comparison to how that player fared compared to other players in the same position.  Instead of trying to figure out who had a better draft blah blah, I just highlighted the best and worst picks of each team, to give us all fodder for smack talk come August 26th.  So without further ado, let's take a look at how well, and poorly, people drafted last season.  For ease of ordering, I just did things in alphabetical order by name.

Aaron

Good picks: David Johnson ($66 / 327.8, 2.00), Rishard Matthews ($1 / 146.5 / 4.4167)

So-so picks: Le'Veon Bell ($50 / 242.4, 1.00), Antonio Brown ($66 / 201.3, 0.6667)

Bad picks: None

Rishard Matthews actually had the highest value score for Aaron.  Aaron paid $1 for a top-12 WR last season, and that was valuable to Aaron, considering he had next to no buying power by that time in the draft.  Credit Aaron for landing the top RB by paying top-dollar for him - David Johnson was more than a worthy investment.  Aaron's other two big-money picks ended up being fairly good value picks, too.  Bad value picks for Aaron?  Surprisingly, he had none.  Since Aaron spent all his money on just a few players who ended up doing as expected or better, most of his draft consisted of $1 picks who really didn't have many expectations to live up to.

Abraham

Good picks: Jordy Nelson ($36 / 207.7, 6.50), Travis Kelce ($7 / 138, 4.00), Jimmy Graham ($1 / 124.3, 4.00)

So-so pick: Tom Brady ($13 / 312.56, 0.7273)

Bad picks: Adrian Peterson ($50 / 6, 0.1136), Sammy Watkins ($37 / 55, 0.1964)

Jordy Nelson finished as the 2nd highest scoring WR last year, and Abraham got him for a steal at $36, considering the top tier WRs were going in the $60-70 range.  Abraham was also stacked at TE, which was kind of useless until he managed to trade away Kelce for J.Stew and Tyrell Williams.  So only a little better than useless.  I'll just briefly mention that Brady was a slightly less-than-worthy pickup based on value.  As for Adrian Peterson, Abraham got a whopping 0.12 points per dollar he spent on the aging RB, while draining himself of a quarter of his total draft money.  Sammy Watkins was only marginally less disappointing.

Andrew

Good pick: Isaiah Crowell ($1 / 165.1, 2.9167)

So-so picks: Mike Ingram ($26 / 196.2, 1.44), Julian Edelman ($22 / 130.3, 0.9545), Greg Olsen ($23 / 127.3, 1.00)

Bad picks: Cam Newton ($38 / 292.26, 0.0526), Todd Gurley ($67 / 155.2, 0.0588)

I had to stretch to find a good pick for Andrew.  Some might say that luck played a part in Andrew maximizing on the $1 he spent on Isaiah Crowell.  Crowell ended up 12th in points among RBs, which is definitely a steal.  Feel free to go over Andrew's so-so picks on your own time - he got pretty much what he paid for in Ingram, Edelman, and Olsen.  The bad picks are the funny ones.  On draft day, he smugly outbid me for CåmË®Øñ1NëWtøÑ and thought he was going to win the championship again with him.  Welp, that was a waste of $38.  Oh, and Todd Gurley for $67?

David Li

Good picks: Melvin Gordon ($9 / 209.6, 3.00), Michael Crabtree ($10 / 150.3, 3.6)

So-so pick: Andrew Luck ($16 / 369.7, 1.25)

Bad pick: Rob Gronkowski ($55 / 72, 0.0714)

Props to David for picking up Melvin Gordon for $9 - not bad for the 8th rank RB in scoring.  Michael Crabtree also ended up being a steal at $10, seeing that he finished 10th among WRs.  Something had to make up for the $55 he lost on Gronk.  Andrew Luck actually finished 4th in QB scoring, but $16 was also the 4th highest amount paid for a QB in the draft (not counting Brock Osweiler - see Justina), so David pretty much got what he paid for there.

David Lin

Good pick: Mike Evans ($37 / 208.1, 11.00)

So-so picks: Jeremy Hill ($26, 155.3 / 0.8125) Ryan Mathews ($13 / 131.6, 1.10), Kelvin Benjamin ($18 / 134.1, 1.4118)

Bad picks: DeAndre Hopkins ($70 / 119.4, 0.0357), Allen Robinson ($44 / 126.3, 0.2609)

David Lin is no longer in the league, but for completeness's sake, I've included him.  He struck gold with Mike Evans, who finished 1st among WRs (really?), but David got him for nearly half of DeAndre Hopkins... who, by the way, was a terrible, terrible, terrible pick.

Duke

Good pick: Matt Ryan ($1 / 423.46, 7.50)

So-so picks: Odell Beckham, Jr. ($61 / 195.6, 0.75), Julio Jones ($60 / 176.9, 0.6667)

Bad pick: Eric Decker ($31 / 31.4, 0.2833)

Duke autodrafted, but I'm pretty sure he pre-ranked his players instead of relying on Yahoo to pick for him.  Regardless, Matt Ryan for $1 was the big QB steal in last year's draft.  Duke paid only slightly more for OBJ and Julio for what they ended up producing, and for who knows why, spent $31 on Eric Decker to boot.  And yet he still finished 2nd...

Eric

Good picks: LeSean McCoy ($33 / 248.3, 3.33), Michael Thomas ($1 / 163.7, 6.625)

So-so pick: Marvin Jones, Jr. ($12 / 117.3, 0.9667)

Bad picks: Russell Wilson ($29 / 310.06, 0.2), Lamar Miller ($57 / 160.1, 0.20), Dez Bryant ($44 / 126.3, 0.30)

LeSean McCoy was fairly undervalued in last season's draft, understandably because of his age and history of injuries.  Eric capitalized on that and landed the 3rd highest scoring RB of 2016 for the price of a low-end RB1.  And Eric's $1 spent on then-rookie Michael Thomas paid huge dividends, as Thomas finished 8th in WR scoring.  It's not listed, but his $7 spent on Larry Fitzgerald also was a good value pick.  His bad picks were pretty bad, though - $130 spent on 3 big-name under-performers.  $29 and $57 were both the 3rd-highest amount paid for a QB and RB, respectively, for Russell Wilson and Lamar Miller.  Neither broke top-15 numbers for their position.  Dez had a sub-par season, finishing 20th among WRs, which was a far cry from being the 6th-highest-paid-for WR.  

Gabs

Good picks: Dak Prescott ($1 / 332.88, 2.50), Aaron Rodgers ($37 / 458.02, 2.0), T.Y. Hilton ($35 / 182.8, 3.00)

So-so pick: DeVonte Freeman ($39 / 230.1, 1.33)

Bad pick: Eddie Lacy ($47 / 38.8, 0.1842)

Although Gabs paid top dollar for Aaron Rodgers, it still ended up being a good value for him, since Rodgers ended up as the highest scoring QB last season.  He still ended up with a steal of a backup QB in snatching Dak Prescott for $1, since Prescott ended up 6th in QB scoring.  T.Y. Hilton was also a nice pickup for Gabs - he had to shell out $35 for the WR, about on par with Sammy Watkins, Keenan Allen, and Brandon Marshall, but with a much better outcome - 5th among WRs in scoring.  Gabs got what he paid for in DeVonte Freeman, but Eddie Lacy?  Not so much.  I try to make it a rule of mine to not pay more money on draft day for a player than that player will score in a season.  Gabs didn't do so well with Eddie Lacy on that one.

Jeff

Good pick: DeMarco Murray ($16 / 242.8, 5.00)

So-so pick: Amari Cooper ($39 / 149.3, 0.9091)

Bad picks: Alshon Jeffery ($41 / 94.1, 0.2368), Josh Gordon ($15 / 0, 0.4308)

Jeff had some other fairly good picks (Kirk Cousins for $2, Doug Baldwin for $20), but DeMarco Murray for $16 was the jackpot for Jeff last season.  In fact, DeMarco was the best value RB of last season's draft (tied with LeGarrett Blount - see Justina).  Most people thought DeMarco wouldn't be relevant anymore, but Jeff put his money on Murray and it paid off.  However, he also put just about the same amount of money on Josh Gordon.  #LULZ  Remebz when we were fighting a bidding war over him, Jeff?  So glad you won that one.  But believe it or not, Alshon Jeffery was more of a dud according to my calculations.  Why?  Because Jeff spent $41 on him.  Sure, Josh Gordon scored zero points all season, but it was only a $15 loss.  Alshon Jeffery at $41?  You could have gotten Mike Evans ($37), Jordy Nelson ($36), T.Y. Hilton ($35), Brandon Marshall (Yes, that is for real - $35), Demaryius Thomas ($23), Julian Edelman ($22), Kelvin Benjamin ($18 - make that TWO KBs) - and you get the point - and spent the extra $4+ dollars on, oh, I don't know, Michael Thomas ($1), Rishard Matthews ($1), Terrell Pryor ($1), and Pierre Garcon ($1) - ALL who performed better than Jeffery at $41.

Justina

Good picks: Drew Brees ($15 / 406.32, 2.33), LeGarrett Blount ($1 / 225.9, 5.00)

So-so pick: Matt Forte ($17 / 153.6, 1.0556)

Bad picks: Brock Osweiler ($22 / 197.98, 0.1481, not actually taken into consideration), Keenan Allen ($36 / 6.3, 0.2031), Carolina D ($5 / 126, 0.1429)

Justina hit FF gold with LeGarrett Blount last season.  She paid a measly $1 to get the 7th highest scoring RB in the league.  Props.  Drew Brees also ended up being a worthy investment, as Justina paid less than what was shelled out for Andrew Luck and Carson Palmer ($16 each) for the 3rd highest scoring QB.  As far as the bad, Keenan Allen's injury left Justina high and dry, and even though they aren't listed, both Brandon Marshall and Randall Cobb under-performed / also were injured, and thus Justina overpaid for their services.  The $5 she spent on Carolina's D also ended up not being a good investment.  And I'll just forgive the Brock Osweiler pick, seeing as how she simply didn't want any leftover money, so she (unwisely) spent it all on him.  

Luke

Good pick: Ezekiel Elliott ($56 / 293.4, 2.00)

So-so picks: Antonio Gates ($2 / 94.8, 1.00), Denver D ($3 / 149, 1.00)

Bad picks: Jamaal Charles ($36 / 11.4, 0.2093), A.J. Green ($53 / 120.4, 0.1852)

To cut him some slack, Luke didn't even draft.  But anyone with a sane head on his shoulders should know never to let Aaron draft for him.  Ever.  So instead, Luke's draft fate was left in the hands of Yahoo / V.Putin.  They outsmarted us all and gave Luke a good ROI for Ezekiel Elliott (IMO, a rare exception to putting a bunch of money on a rookie), but the rest of his draft was underwhelming / stunk.  Jamaal Charles scored all of 11.4 points for the season, which means Luke / Yahoo / V.Putin paid approximately $3.15 per point and failed Tim's Draft Rule #281: Never pay more money than points that player will score all season.  Furthermore, A.J. Green earned a value rating of 0.1852 - ending up 27th in points rankings among WRs, even though he was the 5th highest auctioned WR at a whopping $53, over 25% of Luke's total draft moolah.  The only WR to underperform more than that was DeAndre Hopkins (see David Lin).  I think we can all agree that one should not leave the fate of his or her draft in the hands of Yahoo Autodraft / Voldemort Putin.  At least be like Duke and pre-set your auction prices beforehand.

Tim

Good pick: Sterling Shepard ($2 / 119.4, 1.7857)

So-so picks: Everyone else on my team

Bad pick: Doug Martin ($28 / 71.5, 0.375)

I don't need to be reminded of my sub-par / poor draft.  All my players ended up performing to about their value because I am risk averse and save all my money for the safe, middle-round picks, hoping I can catch a few sleepers to help me stay relevant during the season.  That way, I don't spend too much on someone who flops (DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green, Gronk, Todd Gurley, Adrian Peterson, Eddie Lacy, Cam - see other examples above), but that same sword makes my draft boring and leaves me with players like Doug Martin and Jonathan Stewart.  Sterling Shepard was my best "good pick" - so sad.  So the moral of this post?  Don't take draft advice from Tim.

Happy Drafting!

A study of all things dyNASTYc

I'll start by saying I'm loving these emoji-filled Venmos I'm getting.  Justina and David are still top in terms of emoji-skillz, though:

I love that David is already giving himself a medal.  That's the mindset of a champion.  And rainbows are cool too.  Oh, but Justina knows about that Unicorn power. 

But Jeff?  I can't even...

THEN WHY DON"T YOU GO MARRY HIM ALREADY JEFF.  TOM BRADY IS THE 

THE WURST, JEFF.  HE"S THE WURST.

Ok, now that that's out of the way, I present to you, ladies and gents, a power rankings of sorts: FF NU THANG dyNASTY POWER RANKINGS.

"What is that?" You might ask.  I shall explain.  After Eric sparked a discussion about his championship season, it got me looking back at our league's history.  Since the inaugural season in 2004, 5 managers have played all 13 seasons (me, Eric, Luke, Justina, David Lin), and 3 have played 12 season (Gabs, Jeff, Aaron).  I will first make a quick acknowledgement that 13 consecutive seasons is impressive.  Secondly, one would think that throughout the years, there would be a manager who would try to set him (or her) self apart from the rest of the managers to establish a fantasy football dyNASTY.  So I looked back at the final results from all of the previous seasons, beginning in 2004 to figure out which manager managed to do so.  The process is outlined below.

:
The Process:

1. I recorded the teams that finished first through fourth AFTER the playoffs, because the playoff champion is the true champion.  Even if a team finished first during the regular season, if that team fell in the first round of the playoffs, that team was not the real champ.
2. I gave each of these teams a weighted score.  This weighted score was based on their final rank and how many other teams were in the league that year.  For example, the first place finisher in a 12-team league would get 100 points.  2nd place - 33, 3rd place - 10, and 4th place - 3.  If you think this is arbitrary, then you are somewhat right.  My reasoning was that it's about a third as impressive winning 2nd than it is winning 1st.  Whatever.  In a 10-team league, these numbers would be decreased by roughly 80% (not as arbitrary, because 10/12 is roughly 83%).  In an 8-team league, the number was decreased by 60%.  If someone placed 5th or lower, I didn't consider that impressive, so zero points were awarded across the board for 5th and below.
3. I added all of these numbers up over the span of 13 years, and in the event of a tie-breaker, gave the upper hand to whoever had been in the league the longest (we're talking dyNASTY here, not one-hit wonder). And, voila:

FF NU THANG dyNASTY POWER RANKINGS

12. Abraham
Highlights: 2014 - 5th place
Lowlights: 2013 and 2016 - 10th place
There really isn't much to highlight here, and this was one of the no-brainer picks.  I didn't need Joel Embiid for this one.  Even though Abraham has only been in the league for 4 seasons, he has yet to finish in the Top 4.  He's got a lot of catching up to do before he even gets close to becoming dyNASTYc.

11. Jeff
Highlights: 2010 - 2nd place
Lowlights: 2015 - 11th place
This one took me by surprise, especially since Jeff has had a long track history with the league.  He is one of three managers that have been with the league all but one season (he skipped out 2009), which means he has had many more shots at winning the championship than others who are ranked higher than him.  Historically, Jeff has always landed in the middle by the time the season ends.  His highest finish was in 2010, when he got 2nd (in an 8-team league...).  Next highest is 2013, when he came in 4th.  Then he's got 2 seasons finishing 6th, 3 seasons finishing 7th, and 2 seasons finishing 8th.  That's mediocrity at its finest, and definitely isn't synonymous with dyNASTYc, unfortunately.  FWIW, IMO, Jeff makes up for it with his blogging prowess, LOL, KTHXBAI.


10. Aaron
Highlights: 2009, 2011, 2016 - 3rd place
Lowlights: 2004 and 2014 - 11th place; 2008 - 10th place (last)
Another surprise, seeing how Aaron has been in the league as many years as Jeff has.  But if you look closely at his managing history, you'll find the highest he's ever finished was 3rd place.  Granted, he's accomplished the feat 3 times, but his next best finish was 4th in 2012, followed by a less-than-average 7th in 2006, and three 8th place finishes.  From just my anectodal recollection, it seems like Aaron tends to start each season invested, involved, and on fire, but just hasn't been able to sustain that to a championship.  Or even second place.

9. Duke
Highlights: 2016 - 2nd place
Lowlights: 2013 - 11th place
Seeing as how Duke probably cares the least about our league than anyone else in it right now, 9th seems to be a pretty generous ranking.  Especially since he's only been in the league for 4 years.  Just looking at the highlights and lowlights, it would seem that Duke's team is on par with Jeff's, yet he is ranked 2 spots higher.  If you failed to read the process outlined above, I will explain.  Duke's 2nd place finish came just last season, in a 12-team league with money on the line.  Jeff's 2nd place finish came in 2010, in an 8-team league, during the oft-referenced Fantasy dark ages (Lin, 2013).  Therefore, Duke's 2nd place finish is much more impressive than Jeff's.  What about Aaron?  2009 was part of the aforementioned Fantasy dark ages, so winning 3rd for Aaron was just one notch above getting a participation trophy.  Plus, you don't build dyNASTYes by winning 3rd all the time.  Just ask the Clippers.

8. David Li
Highlights: 2014 - 2nd place
Lowlights: 2011 - 9th place
The Tortoise has a 2nd place finish to brag about, but after 6 seasons in the league, hasn't come away with much more than that.  His worst season was in 2011, when he finished 9th in a 10-team league, but otherwise, he's finished between 4th and 6th the remaining 4 seasons.  This was a situation where David and Duke had the same score, but David was ranked higher as a result of being in the league longer.  As I mentioned in my previous post, I think he's got it in him this season, though.  Pressure's on.

7. Laura
Highlights: 2004 and 2008 - 2nd place; 2007 - 3rd place
Lowlights: 2005 - 12th place; 2012 - 10th place (last)
Laura's back in the league, and while some people may have forgotten how she fared in the years before she left, the numbers don't lie.  Two 2nd place finishes and a 3rd place finish during the earlier years of our league gives Laura a leg up against these other managers.  I will note that 2007 and 2008 were 10-team-league years, so that puts a small asterisk next to those seasons, but her resume isn't too shabby.  She has had two disappointing last-place-finishing seasons, the most recent one being her last season with us (2012 was a 10-team league), but I'm sure that bad taste in her mouth will fuel her this season to build on the dyNASTYc foundation she established at the genesis of our league.

6. Tim
Highlights: 2005, 2007, and 2015 - 2nd place
Lowlights: 2013 - 12th place; 2014 - 10th place; 2009 and 2010 - 8th place (last)
With the numbers to justify it, I lead the pack of non-first place finishers in my quest for building an FF NU THANG dyNASTY.  Three second place finishes (One of which was ruined by the dumb Falcons who also ruined the Panthers perfect season #neverforget.  Andrew had wet his bed multiple times that week leading up to the championship because he knew he was in for a whooping.) have paved the way for my teams to be just good enough to be not quite good enough.  It's also kind of sad that I'm the only team without a championship that has been with the league all 13 seasons.  I've blamed it on a lot of things, but we all know it's because the Patriots are the .  They are to blame for pretty much everything good in the football world.

5. Andrew
Highlights: 2015 - 1st place
Lowlights: 2014 - 12th place; 2016 - 11th place
It pains me greatly to see Andrew this high up.  I bet even Andrew is like

Mainly because his highlights and lowlights are his ONLY lights.  As in, he's only been in the league for 3 years, and we're saying he's more dyNASTYc than Odoyle Rules the Adeline's College Fund Unicorn Queen?!?!?!  Just cuz he got a ring now he think he all that.  Look at his other two seasons - last and second to last.  Infurlinatering.  But the numbers don't lie.  His 1st place win in a 12-team league the first season we had buy-ins was impressive.  What's more impressive: He freaking paid $38 for an already-torn-ACL-Jordy-Nelson in the draft and STILL won the league.  Still not over it.

4. Justina
Highlights: 2011 - 1st place; 2010 and 2013 - 3rd place
Lowlights: 2004 - 12th place
Surprisingly, the numbers had Justina and Andrew tied.  Justina's 1st place win was in a 10-team league, while Andrew's was in a 12-team league.  However, Justina's 3rd place finishes and long history with the league give her dyNASTYc building much more legitimacy.  She's also cooler than Andrew.

3. Eric
Highlights: 2004 - 1st place; 2012 and 2014 - 3rd place
Lowlights: 2007 - 10th place (last)
Eric was the OG champion, back when we were all green and probably spent slightly more time on fantasy football than we would have liked to admit.  2004 was a 12-team league back then, and Eric pulled out a victory (even though he claims he had forgotten).  His two 3rd place finishes, not to mention his four 4th place finishes, catapults him ahead of the other former champions.  But is his team dyNASTYc?  While his only 1st place finish came over a decade ago, he hasn't done too shabby in recent history (minus last season).  He still has a bit of ground to cover, but a championship this year would definitely help his case.

2. Gabs
Highlights: 2013 and 2016 - 1st place; 2004 - 3rd place
Lowlights: 2015 - 12th place; 2006 - 11th place; 2011 - 10th place (last)
Gabs's fantasy career has been like a rollercoaster ride:
2004 - 3rd / 12
2005 - 10th / 12
2006 - 11th / 12
2007 - 4th / 10
2008 - 8th / 10
2009 - DNP
2010 - 7th / 8
2011 - 10th / 10
2012 - 6th / 10
2013 - 1st / 12
2014 - 10th / 12
2015 - 12th / 12
2016 - 1st / 12
8 seasons were below-average.  4 seasons were above-average.  2 of those 4 seasons were championship seasons.  Hence, the term borderline dyNASTYc.  Gabs has the shown the ability to build a dyNASTY, but his consistency has also been absolutely terrible.  Interestingly enough, I also calculated a different score based on how teams finished, giving values a linear relationship (for example, 1st gets 12 point, last gets 1 point, and highest cumulative score is the GOAT), which factored in terrible performances as much as excellent performances (and also awarded teams who had been in the league for longer).  That wasn't the interesting part, I just had to finish that sentence because it was getting way annoyingly long.  Interestingly enough, Gabs was 7th (out of the 12) on that list.  But IMO, that's a different conversation.  DyNASTYes are built on championships, not six 6th place finishes.

1. Luke
Highlights: 2005, 2007, 2012 - 1st place; 2011 - 2nd place; 2008 - 3rd place
Lowlights: 2006 - 12th place
It's hard to argue against this.  No matter how hard I tried, no matter what formula I used, Luke always came out on top.  Of all the managers that remain in our league, he's been clearly the most dominant.  I will take a moment to recognize Kobe Bean aka David Lin, who actually beat Luke out in the linear rankings that I described in Gabs's section.  But in the true dyNASTYc rankings, Luke beat out even the mighty Mamba.  The main reason was that two of David Lin's championships were during the Fantasy dark ages where our numbers dwindled to 8 teams, likely due to a plague of sorts.  Even though two of Luke's championships came during our 10-team years, his most impressive one - in my opinion - was during the season of the GOAT in-person live draft.  That was a legit season, and Luke won it rather convincingly (again, at my expense).  He's also garnered a 2nd place and 3rd place finish to round out his resume.  But as far as dyNASTYes in FF NU THANG are concerned, Luke's it.  Even though he hasn't won a championship in 5 years, he's still sits atop these rankings, and until someone makes a case for it, he might be up here for a while.


And for anyone who might be curious, the All-Time Rankings are below:

1. Luke
2. David Lin
3. Gabs
4. Eric
5. Mike
6. Justina
7. Andrew
8. Khoa
9. Tim
10. Laura
11. David Li
12. Duke
13. Jen
14. Aaron
15. Jeff
16. Lan
17. Abraham
18. Ming

Ermgah already timez?

As I wait for the football season to begin, I have decided to return from a hiatus of blogging to try and inject a dose of renewed interest in this game that we call FF NU THANG.

It still intrigues me that there are people on this planet that find enough pleasure from reading this blog that they would demand I do it more and eagerly await the return of my writing.  The fact that I can count the number of these people with one hand does not take away from how honored I feel that my work is appreciated by at least two or three people.

So it's time to bring back the #LULZ and do a happy dab dance.

I will also give a shout out to Jeff, who held down the blogging fort two seasons ago.  I was reading some of his blog posts from before, and they were lit.  Bomb.  He kept it 100.  Did I use those right?  Instead of my Panthers-centric point of view and constant references to the NBA because the NFL is so daggum boring, he provided in-depth knowledge about the NFL in its entirety (and even knew the coaches names??).  And his usage of gifs?  Lit. Bomb. 100.  Inspiring enough for me to learn how to make my own gifs (see below.. and future posts heheheheheh).

Anyways, for those of you still reading, I present to you the four main questions I have before entering into the 2017-2018 FF NU THANG season with ado no further:

1. Wait, who won last year?

Oh yeah, I cared so much I almost forgot.

And to win 2 championships in the past 4 years is as close to an FF NU THANG dynasty as anyone can lay claim to, besides the questionable back-to-back championships David Lin had in the so-called Fantasy dark ages (Lin, 2013).

So, congrats Gabs.  You have achieved somewhere above Seattle Seahawks status and below New England Pooptriots status.

2. Rule changes?  What rule changes??

Ladies and gents, the results are in:

This came as no surprise to me, since we've used Yahoo for so long, and in spite of its shortcomings and questionable security measures, it's hard to break old habits.  Plus, Russians ain't got nothin' on Murca.  Except Piroshkies - those are bomb.com.ru

Also, no surprise here.  The move to auction two years ago seems to still be a big hit, and the flexibility to be able to draft David Johnson, Antonio Brown, AND Le'Veon Bell has been appreciated by at least Aaron.  Plus, it keeps people engaged during the whole draft.  Unless you're Aaron, in which you are only engaged at the very beginning and the very end.

A total split.  See - everyone's vote counts!  Democracy still works.  In fantasy [football].  What this means is since the old rules were 6 points for throwing TDs, and there was not a majority to change that rule, we'll keep it at 6 points for throwing TDs.  Clearly, the Pig's arguments were not strong enough to convince the masses.

In terms of impact on the game - I would agree that QBs have gotten a boost in points since the NFL has shifted to a pass-happy league, but it's not like people were paying top dollar for QBs in the past two years' drafts.  Just last year, Andrew outbid everyone (mainly me) and got Cam for $38, which was the highest amount paid for a QB last year.. wait wait I have something for this..

..while WR DeAndre Hopkins went for $70 (#LULZ @ David Lin aka RIP Kobe - it was a good career, but sorrynotsorry for ending it with your team at dead last instead of out with a bang) and RB David Johnson went for $66 (ok, actually a good pick, Aaron).  Furthermore, Cam was probably valued higher for his ability to run in TDs, not just to pass.  So really, switching to 4 point throwing TDs would only give running QBs a bigger advantage, and the impact of that change wouldn't have been as great as some might have thought.  Ultimately, the scoring would just normalize itself out.  It's all relative right?  If your QB gets less points, so does mine.  Unless he's Cam Newton.. of 2015.

Finally, we get to an actual rule change!  Fun fact - if we had implemented the 6-team playoff rule last year, David Li would have been champion instead of Gabs, because he wouldn't have had to face Duke in Week 15, since Duke (who finished 2nd) wouldn't have even made the playoffs.  The way I saw it, it really came down to this: Were we going to take a March Madness approach and give the VCUs and Butlers of our league a chance to make the championship game (read: Duke deserved to finish 2nd), or the College Football Playoff approach where a single loss during the regular season could make or break your playoff hopes, and leave the playoffs to the powerhouses of the season (read: Duke had no business being in the playoffs)?  I personally preferred the former, because my team has historically been one of the ones fighting for the 7th or 8th spot.  But I can see the value in being more selective and rewarding a good regular season performance with a bye for the 1 and 2 seeds.  I'm ok with this change, and hope it will make people fight a little harder during the regular season.

It looks like we will have a Sacko.  For the record, there was someone who did not vote "yes" or "no" but still put a Sacko punishment in "other" and therefore I am counting that vote as a "yes."  The Sacko punishment sounds interesting, and makes sense, but may be difficult to implement.  Here were the suggestions for a punishment:

• If there's someone (like Steve) who wants in, last place would sit out a season
• Buys Bojangles for everyone
• Winner picks outfit for loser to wear for a weekend
• Winner picks a new team name for loser to use the entire next season
• Designated blogger for next season
• 3 options from winner, voted on by league
• Up for anything

Here are my opinions on the suggestions:

• Last place sitting out for a season seems like too harsh a punishment.  That could just be me, though.  In terms of implementation, that would be easy.  In terms of motivating teams to not tank, it would likely work.  In terms of implications for our league.. just seems a bit too mean.
• Buying Bojangles sounds good to me.  The downside is implementation.  How are you going to get those Cali folks to buy us NC folks fried chicken?  Or those folks up north?
• Winner picks outfit sounds good and funny, but implementation becomes another issue.  Just how are we supposed to ensure that he or she wears said outfit for a whole weekend?
• Winner picks a team name for loser sounds like an implementable punishment, but is it punishment enough to motivate people to try not to get last if they are on that path?  It seems too mild.
• Designated blogger for next season.  Forget about trying to implement this - blogging is harder than you think, and whoever gets Sacko might not even get past the first blog post.
• The last two suggestions are too broad to comment on.

So it seems like the most intriguing option so far, in my opinion, is kicking last place out of the league for a season, but my gut reaction is that it's too harsh.  I'm surprised no one mentioned taking away auction draft money or FAAB money for the following season, or increasing the actual buy-in amount for just the Sacko for the following year.  We can continue this discussion about what the punishment should be, but something will need to be decided before draft day. 

3. How will Laura fare after a 4-year hiatus from FF?

I will admit that I'm somewhat sad to see David Lin leave our league.  It was fun making fun of how bad his team did, since he was previously so dominant and invested.  Kind of like Kobe's last year (refer to above) - it was both sad and amusing.

However, it has only made way for Laura's exciting re-entry into our league.  It's only been one year of separation from blogging for me, and I already feel my writing bones creaking.  I can't imagine trying to get back into the league after 4 years.  She says she played pick 'em, but I don't even know what that is.  And after she explained it to me, I'm not convinced it will be of any help in her return.  She also has the fact that she's never won a regular season or playoff championship in her tenure with our league working against her.

However, I know that Laura will return with a renewed focus, and if she is able to get over the initial adjustment to the league's rule changes, she'll be a dark horse this season.  I mean, she's already asked me for the past two years' draft results so she can study up on them before this year's showdown.  I told her what's going to happen, though: Aaron is going to spend all his money on three players, while Justina and I just sit back and save our moniez for the mid-level fliers - we will still have $200 when Aaron has $12 left to spend on 12 players.


4. Who will win this year?

Statistically speaking, the playoff champion will likely be someone who has never won it before.  To date, the title of playoff champion has only been enjoyed by less than half of the current members of our league: Luke, Eric, Gabs, Justina, and Andrew.  That leaves 7 other teams thirsty for the promised land, and something tells me this is David Li's year.  He's improved in leaps and bounds since he first joined the league, and I doubt he wants to have Justina constantly lording the fact that she's got more FF HOPKINSBLING than he does.  Because I would if I had one.  So my pick based on absolutely nothing is the Tortoise.  Slow and steady.

Does Past History Really Predict Future Behavior?

As we've seen in pretty much all major league sports in the modern era, building a dynasty franchise is incredibly difficult, not to mention winning consecutive championships.  With the new fantasy football season starting to gear up, I wondered how true this was for our league and its storied history.

Well, I turned to analytics again to hopefully shed some insight on my musings.  I took all the previous seasons and recorded how each team fared the following season, based only on the previous season's final standings.  I know there are a lot of faulty assumptions made in this analytic model, such as:

• What about the skill set of each team's manager?
• What about when we became a 10-team or 8-team league, and when we added or removed team managers?
• What about factors such as waiver wire activity, trades made, draft type, draft order, keepers, Points For, Points Against, regular season performance, changes in the point system, injuries, etc. etc. etc.?
• That's just stupid - why would the previous season's standings play any role in the following season's results?

To all those questions, I answer:  WHATEVZ.  What model is without their imperfections?

Anyways, here's the table I came up with, with numbers that probably don't make sense to anyone (including myself).

I removed data from any team that quit the following season, and I took into account that some seasons only had 8 or 10 teams by weighting the 12-team seasons more heavily.

Some interesting things I noted were:

• By a fairly wide margin, the person who ended a season in 8th place tended to get last the following season.  Even when factoring in the 10-team and 8-team seasons - either by weighing the 12-team seasons more heavily, or even by removing the 10-team and 8-team seasons entirely from the data set.  8th is still the worst seed to end a season in.  Sorry for the bad news, Abraham.
• While the numbers show that the #3 team from 2015 (David Lin) has the best chance of ending the 2016 season as the champion, there were notably 2 seasons where the team in dead last ended up champion the following season (Luke from 2006 to 2007 and more recently, Andrew from 2014 to 2015).  Don't give up hope, Gabs.
• On the flip-side, the champion of one season averaged a 7th place finish in the following year, which means Andrew may make the playoffs again this season, but probably won't have as strong of a finish as he did last season.
• Could he do worse?  Yes.  Refer to Luke's team from 2005 to 2006, where he went from champion to dead last in the span of one season.
• Could he do better?  Yes.  Refer to David Lin's team from 2009 to 2010.  This was the only instance where our league had a back-to-back champion in its history.  Keep in mind, however, that that particular stretch of our league's history was one marked with some (arguably) softer competition and an 8-team league (the "Fantasy dark ages" as labelled by a fellow blogger).
• The range of these numbers (0.29 to 0.6074, from 0.083 to 1.00) isn't all that wide, and one could argue that this is all just a random collection of data that bears no correlation to what will actually happen this season.  And that person might have a point.  But that person is probably also ranked at the bottom half of the rankings below.

So here we are, the beginning of a new season, and many questions yet to be answered.  But with my not-so-reliable pre-season analytics predictor tool, I'll go ahead and answer one question.  How will each team do in the 2016 FFNuThang season?  I present to you, lady and gentlemenz...

Tim's 2016 Pre-Season Rankings

1. Ruh Rawl ( (D.Lin)
2. David's Team (D.Li)
3. Aaron Chou's Team (Aaron)
4. Spider Pig (Luke)
5. 4th and long (Gabs)
6. 1-800-HOPKINSBLING (Justina)
7. This is for Jordy (Andrew)
8. Unicorn Queen (Tim)
9. HAMAJANG (Jeff)
10. JULIOthinkyouare?! (Eric)
11. I Called Game (Duke)
12. Di Yi (Abraham)

Don't count on me blogging when the season starts, though.  I don't want my 8th place ranking to actually come true.

Playoff Predictions: Final Round (Tim vs. Andrew)

Both Tim and Andrew are looking for their first FF championship. Will Tim's dominance continue  this week? Or will Andrew pull off the upset?

This is for Jordy (10-3) vs. Unicorn Queen (9-4)

QB: Cam Newton is going to win the MVP this year. Another five touchdowns last week, and it looked effortless. Two other things to consider: 1) the Panthers play the Falcons this week, a team they trashed two weeks ago and 2) the Panthers need one more win to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, so Cam and co will be motivated.

If Andrew has any hope of pulling off an upset here, he's going to need another great day from Kirk Cousins. Last week Cousins had 4 TDs against Buffalo. This week he has a savory matchup against Philly. Cousins is very capable of matching Newton point for point next week, but I still have to give Tim the edge here.

Advantage: Unicorn Queen

WR: All of Tim's WRs have great matchups this week. Allen Robinson is up against a New Orleans defense that looked like it couldn't stop anybody last week. Martavis Bryant is on a potent Steelers offense that faces the beat up Baltimore Ravens. And Maclin has a great matchup against Cleveland.

In Andrew's corner, he's got Brandon Marshall, who's been playing pretty darn well the last couple weeks. At WR #2, he's got Tyler Lockett who is averaging 7 targets a game and a TD over the last three week. Finally at WR #3, Andrew's got Tedd Ginn Jr. Cam Newton seems to favor throwing to Ginn, so I expect Ginn to get a bunch of points this week. The more yards and TDs he gets, the more he offsets Cam Newton.

Advantage: Unicorn Queen

RB: My only regret in drafting David Johnson was that he didn't get more opportunities earlier in the season. I knew he was going to be really good when I drafted him, but what I didn't know was when he was going to emerge. Congrats Tim on landing a stud at RB. You are going to ride David Johnson all the way to the championship. As for Lamar Miller, I can't seem to wrap my head around him. Some weeks he plays awesome, and other weeks he does absolutely nothing. If I were you Tim, I would consider starting Denard or White instead. Both are much more consistent options. I personally like White. Brady's got to give the ball to someone, and it looks like he trusts White as his new Dion Lewis receiving back.

Andrew's going to need AP and Gurley to blow up this week if he wants to keep up with Tim. The Vikings are still in the playoff hunt, so I expect AP to go full force against a soft NY Giants defense. Gurley is also going strong but facing a tough Seattle front seven.

This one was tough, but I'm going to give Andrew the slight edge here. Two steady RBs > 1 awesome RB. It's unlikely David Johnson will have another 3 TD day against Green Bay, and I'll take the proven Gurly over the shaky Miller any day.

Advantage: This is for Jordy

TE: Jordan Reed is the top receiving option on a Redskins team that controls its own destiny. He regularly scores 18+ per game. Olsen has been averaging a solid 10 FF points a game in a high-powered Carolina offense. This matchup goes to Andrew.

Advantage: This is for Jordy 

K/DEF: Kansas City is playing out of its mind right now on defense. Over the last three weeks, it has scored a minimum of 14 points. This week KC faces an awful Cleveland team quarterbacked by the inexperienced, "I don't know what I'm doing in the NFL" Manziel. Meanwhile, Andrew's taking a gamble on Miami's defense this week. This is the same Miami defense that allowed a hapless San Diego team to drop 30 points on it.

Cantanzaro is on a roll right now but so is Gano. The kicker matchup is too close to call.

Advantage: Unicorn Queen

Winner: Unicorn Queen
Was there ever any doubt? Barring any major setback, I expect Tim's team to win the championship.

Playoff Predictions: Semifinal Round (Andrew vs. Eric)

I haven't peeped the SNF game, so I believe my prediction is fairly unbiased.

This is for Jordy (10-3) vs. JULIOthinkyouare?! (8-5)

Yahoo says that Andrew and Eric are pretty evenly matched this week. I disagree. I think Andrew is the clear favorite here.

QB: Andrew's got Fitzpatrick, and Eric's got Russell, who's been the best QB in the game the past four weeks. Nothing against Fitzpatrick, but I got to go with Wilson here. He plays Cleveland this week. It doesn't get easier than that.

Advantage: JULIOthinkyouare?!

WR: Andrew's got Marshall, Fitzgerald, and Tyler Lockett. Marshall has been on fire right now, and I expect him to keep it up against the Cowboys. Fitzgerald has averaged double digit targets the last four out of five weeks, but unfortunately these targets haven't translated into FF points. He's also losing more and more scoring looks to the younger Brown and Floyd. If I were Andrew, I would strongly consider playing Ginn instead. He's a home run threat every single time Newton tosses him the ball and should be a top 5 FF WR if he had hands. Finally, Lockett was a smart pickup on Andrew's part. He's been a big beneficiary of Wilson's inspired play, and any points he gets will offset Wilson's effectiveness from a FF perspective.

Eric's got Julio, TY Hilton, and Devante Adams--none of which blow me away right now. Julio continues to get a buttload of targets but hasn't scored since like Week 8. I blame Matt Ryan and the fact that Atlanta doesn't look for Julio in the endzone. Hilton is facing the same situation in Indy with Matt Hasselbeck at the helm. Finally, Adams isn't even registering in some games. I'm not sure why Eric continues to play him, but I guess he sees something in Adamas that I don't. Or he doesn't care at this point.

I like Andrew's WRs here. They're more reliable at the end of the day.

Advantage: This is for Jordy

RB: Eric's got Doug Martin and LeSean McCoy in his corner. Both are as solid as they come. McCoy doesn't have as much upside as AP or Gurley, but Doug Martin can hit 20+ points every now and then.

The Vikings are still in the playoff hunt and facing a weak Bears defense. AP should have a good week as long as the Vikings give him the ball. Same with Gurley. I was little worried about how he would play last week given his recent slump, but his performance last week convinced me that he is still worth starting. Andrew's RBs are just more talented at the end of the day.

Advantage: This is for Jordy

TE: Eifert left last week's game with a concussion. I don't expect him to play much. Plus, he's got AJ McCarron delivering him the ball. Reed has been as steady as they come. Andrew's got the clear edge here.

Advantage: This is for Jordy

K/DEF: Normally, I would pick Carolina over Green Bay in a heartbeat; however, I think Eli Manning and the Giants are going to give the Panthers some trouble this Sunday. Neither defense stands out to me this week.

At the kicker position, Cantazaro is outplaying Tucker. The Ravens have hit hard times with so many guys going down.

I'm going to chalk this one up to a tie. Carolina should outplay GB, and Cantazaro should outplay Tucker.

Advantage: Tie

Winner: This is for Jordy

Andrew's depth at WR, RB, and TE should offset anything Wilson puts up.

Playoff Predictions: Semifinal Round (Tim vs. David Lin)

Unicorn Queen (9-4) vs. Ruh Rawl ( (9-4)

Yahoo puts Tim's chances of winning at 68%. I disagree. I think the matchup is a lot closer than that. Tim is still the favorite, but I put his chances at closer to 55%.

QB: Tim's got Cam Newton in his corner. Over the last four weeks, he has thrown for 13 touchdowns and 1 interception. That's the good news. The bad news is that the Panthers benched him early last week to protect him, and if the Panthers build an early lead again, they may look to bench him again. This could be bad if all the Panthers' TDs come from defense, special teams, and the running game. Seems doubtful but still a possibility. The Panthers also play the Giants this week who have a reputation of being giant killers. I predict the game will be more defensive-minded affair with the final score in the 20s. Cam won't explode again for 5 TDs, but I can see a solid 2-3 TDs.

For David Lin, Bortles has been stellar -- throwing for 11 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in the same time span. In fact, he's outscored Cam two out of these four weeks. That's the good news. The bad news is that Bortles had a very slow start last week before kicking it into high gear in the second half. Is this something that David Lin should worry about? I doubt it. Plus, Bortles has a great matchup against a reeling Atlanta Falcons team. The Panthers dropped 38 points on them. I expect 2-3 TDs from Bortles too.

I've got to give Cam the slight edge here, but I doubt this matchup will be the difference maker in the long run.

Advantage: Unicorn Queen

WR: David Lin has a lot of momentum right now at WR. All of his players are peaking at the right time. In my opinion, OBJ has reached matchup-proof status. Sure, he's got a tough matchup this week against Carolina (and will probably have Norman shadowing him all game), but I still think he's going to get his. Watkins is also on a tear right now. He and Tyrod are finally healthy. He's getting a lot of targets, and the Bills are still in the playoff hunt. All of these signs point to another strong week from Watkins. Hurns returned last week and made a big splash. He's got a good matchup against Atlanta.

Now let's take a look at Tim's WRs. Maclin has been hit or miss all season long. The weeks that he's on, he's been amazing. The weeks that he's not on, he does nothing. Which Maclin is going to show up this week? I think the good Maclin shows up this week. After Maclin, Tim's got Martavis Bryant who has a tough matchup against Denver. He was playing well until his let down last week. I expect his numbers to be below average because it's Denver. Finally, Tim's got Allen Robinson who has been fairly darn consistent the last couple of weeks. The more points Robinson gets, the more he offsets Bortles effectiveness.

Tim is capable of matching David Lin stride for stride at WR, but I just don't expect all three of them to have a good week.

Advantage: Ruh Rawl (

RB: Tim's got the advantage at RB. Lamar Miller gets San Diego this week and is coming off a 2 TD performance against the Giants. David Johnson has been as steady as they come.

David Lin's got Tim Hightower and Fozzy Whittaker. They are both risks although well worth the plays considering the situation. Hightower is the only one toting the ball in NOLA and played well last week. Whittaker has the potential to be the #1 ballcarrier in Carolina this week with Stewart nursing an injury, but I'm a little wary that the Panthers may mix him in with Artis-Payne and Tolbert.

Advantage: Unicorn Queen

TE: Olsen had an injury scare last week (knee), and now I'm concerned the Panthers are going to limit him next week. Walker has been chipping in a solid 10+ points a game for the last 4 straight weeks. He's also Mariota's top WR (double digit targets). Got to go with Walker here.

Advantage: Ruh Rawl (

K/DEF: Kansas City has outplayed Denver two out of the past four weeks and has a great matchup against a weak Baltimore offense. Denver has gotten better the last two weeks but now faces the potent Steelers offense.

The past two weeks it's been TD galore for the Panthers, limiting the number of field goal opportunities Gano has received. I expect Gano to bounce back this week. Prater had a bad showing last week but should have plenty of opportunities next week against the Saints.

This one's too close to call.

Advantage: Tie

Winner: Ruh Rawl (
Oh, this was tough. It came down to whether or not I believed David Lin's WR/TE would outplay Tim's RBs. The answer was yes. I don't think all of Tim's WRs will have a good week nor do I expect Olsen to play much. David Lin for the upset.