A Study of Last Season's Draft

As we enter the third season of auction drafting, most of us have probably become familiar enough with the process to feel comfortable going in to draft day, but not all of us can rely on experience to help.  For example, I don't think Duke has actually been there for a full draft - and probably won't this season, either.  Luke also had to miss out last season, and for some reason still unknown to anyone alive on this planet, trusted Aaron / Yahoo / V.Putin to draft for him.  2017 will mark Laura's return to our league, and she has yet to dabble in the dark arts of the auction draft.  So needless to say, not everyone will be on the same playing field.

With that said, my feelings about the upcoming draft / season?

But before I look further into the future, I decided to take a look at the past, specifically at last season's draft.  I came up with this fancy algorithm / spreadsheet / magic that put a value on each pick of last season's draft.  I won't go into too much detail and lose all my readers, but basically, if someone paid top dollar for a player that ended up being a dud (for whatever reason - age, poor performance, injuries), then one could say that person overpaid for the player and that player was a poor value.  On the flip side, if someone paid next to nothing for a player who ended up having a breakout season, then that player was a great value.  I based this largely on how much was paid in comparison to how that player fared compared to other players in the same position.  Instead of trying to figure out who had a better draft blah blah, I just highlighted the best and worst picks of each team, to give us all fodder for smack talk come August 26th.  So without further ado, let's take a look at how well, and poorly, people drafted last season.  For ease of ordering, I just did things in alphabetical order by name.

Aaron

Good picks: David Johnson ($66 / 327.8, 2.00), Rishard Matthews ($1 / 146.5 / 4.4167)

So-so picks: Le'Veon Bell ($50 / 242.4, 1.00), Antonio Brown ($66 / 201.3, 0.6667)

Bad picks: None

Rishard Matthews actually had the highest value score for Aaron.  Aaron paid $1 for a top-12 WR last season, and that was valuable to Aaron, considering he had next to no buying power by that time in the draft.  Credit Aaron for landing the top RB by paying top-dollar for him - David Johnson was more than a worthy investment.  Aaron's other two big-money picks ended up being fairly good value picks, too.  Bad value picks for Aaron?  Surprisingly, he had none.  Since Aaron spent all his money on just a few players who ended up doing as expected or better, most of his draft consisted of $1 picks who really didn't have many expectations to live up to.

Abraham

Good picks: Jordy Nelson ($36 / 207.7, 6.50), Travis Kelce ($7 / 138, 4.00), Jimmy Graham ($1 / 124.3, 4.00)

So-so pick: Tom Brady ($13 / 312.56, 0.7273)

Bad picks: Adrian Peterson ($50 / 6, 0.1136), Sammy Watkins ($37 / 55, 0.1964)

Jordy Nelson finished as the 2nd highest scoring WR last year, and Abraham got him for a steal at $36, considering the top tier WRs were going in the $60-70 range.  Abraham was also stacked at TE, which was kind of useless until he managed to trade away Kelce for J.Stew and Tyrell Williams.  So only a little better than useless.  I'll just briefly mention that Brady was a slightly less-than-worthy pickup based on value.  As for Adrian Peterson, Abraham got a whopping 0.12 points per dollar he spent on the aging RB, while draining himself of a quarter of his total draft money.  Sammy Watkins was only marginally less disappointing.

Andrew

Good pick: Isaiah Crowell ($1 / 165.1, 2.9167)

So-so picks: Mike Ingram ($26 / 196.2, 1.44), Julian Edelman ($22 / 130.3, 0.9545), Greg Olsen ($23 / 127.3, 1.00)

Bad picks: Cam Newton ($38 / 292.26, 0.0526), Todd Gurley ($67 / 155.2, 0.0588)

I had to stretch to find a good pick for Andrew.  Some might say that luck played a part in Andrew maximizing on the $1 he spent on Isaiah Crowell.  Crowell ended up 12th in points among RBs, which is definitely a steal.  Feel free to go over Andrew's so-so picks on your own time - he got pretty much what he paid for in Ingram, Edelman, and Olsen.  The bad picks are the funny ones.  On draft day, he smugly outbid me for CåmË®Øñ1NëWtøÑ and thought he was going to win the championship again with him.  Welp, that was a waste of $38.  Oh, and Todd Gurley for $67?

David Li

Good picks: Melvin Gordon ($9 / 209.6, 3.00), Michael Crabtree ($10 / 150.3, 3.6)

So-so pick: Andrew Luck ($16 / 369.7, 1.25)

Bad pick: Rob Gronkowski ($55 / 72, 0.0714)

Props to David for picking up Melvin Gordon for $9 - not bad for the 8th rank RB in scoring.  Michael Crabtree also ended up being a steal at $10, seeing that he finished 10th among WRs.  Something had to make up for the $55 he lost on Gronk.  Andrew Luck actually finished 4th in QB scoring, but $16 was also the 4th highest amount paid for a QB in the draft (not counting Brock Osweiler - see Justina), so David pretty much got what he paid for there.

David Lin

Good pick: Mike Evans ($37 / 208.1, 11.00)

So-so picks: Jeremy Hill ($26, 155.3 / 0.8125) Ryan Mathews ($13 / 131.6, 1.10), Kelvin Benjamin ($18 / 134.1, 1.4118)

Bad picks: DeAndre Hopkins ($70 / 119.4, 0.0357), Allen Robinson ($44 / 126.3, 0.2609)

David Lin is no longer in the league, but for completeness's sake, I've included him.  He struck gold with Mike Evans, who finished 1st among WRs (really?), but David got him for nearly half of DeAndre Hopkins... who, by the way, was a terrible, terrible, terrible pick.

Duke

Good pick: Matt Ryan ($1 / 423.46, 7.50)

So-so picks: Odell Beckham, Jr. ($61 / 195.6, 0.75), Julio Jones ($60 / 176.9, 0.6667)

Bad pick: Eric Decker ($31 / 31.4, 0.2833)

Duke autodrafted, but I'm pretty sure he pre-ranked his players instead of relying on Yahoo to pick for him.  Regardless, Matt Ryan for $1 was the big QB steal in last year's draft.  Duke paid only slightly more for OBJ and Julio for what they ended up producing, and for who knows why, spent $31 on Eric Decker to boot.  And yet he still finished 2nd...

Eric

Good picks: LeSean McCoy ($33 / 248.3, 3.33), Michael Thomas ($1 / 163.7, 6.625)

So-so pick: Marvin Jones, Jr. ($12 / 117.3, 0.9667)

Bad picks: Russell Wilson ($29 / 310.06, 0.2), Lamar Miller ($57 / 160.1, 0.20), Dez Bryant ($44 / 126.3, 0.30)

LeSean McCoy was fairly undervalued in last season's draft, understandably because of his age and history of injuries.  Eric capitalized on that and landed the 3rd highest scoring RB of 2016 for the price of a low-end RB1.  And Eric's $1 spent on then-rookie Michael Thomas paid huge dividends, as Thomas finished 8th in WR scoring.  It's not listed, but his $7 spent on Larry Fitzgerald also was a good value pick.  His bad picks were pretty bad, though - $130 spent on 3 big-name under-performers.  $29 and $57 were both the 3rd-highest amount paid for a QB and RB, respectively, for Russell Wilson and Lamar Miller.  Neither broke top-15 numbers for their position.  Dez had a sub-par season, finishing 20th among WRs, which was a far cry from being the 6th-highest-paid-for WR.  

Gabs

Good picks: Dak Prescott ($1 / 332.88, 2.50), Aaron Rodgers ($37 / 458.02, 2.0), T.Y. Hilton ($35 / 182.8, 3.00)

So-so pick: DeVonte Freeman ($39 / 230.1, 1.33)

Bad pick: Eddie Lacy ($47 / 38.8, 0.1842)

Although Gabs paid top dollar for Aaron Rodgers, it still ended up being a good value for him, since Rodgers ended up as the highest scoring QB last season.  He still ended up with a steal of a backup QB in snatching Dak Prescott for $1, since Prescott ended up 6th in QB scoring.  T.Y. Hilton was also a nice pickup for Gabs - he had to shell out $35 for the WR, about on par with Sammy Watkins, Keenan Allen, and Brandon Marshall, but with a much better outcome - 5th among WRs in scoring.  Gabs got what he paid for in DeVonte Freeman, but Eddie Lacy?  Not so much.  I try to make it a rule of mine to not pay more money on draft day for a player than that player will score in a season.  Gabs didn't do so well with Eddie Lacy on that one.

Jeff

Good pick: DeMarco Murray ($16 / 242.8, 5.00)

So-so pick: Amari Cooper ($39 / 149.3, 0.9091)

Bad picks: Alshon Jeffery ($41 / 94.1, 0.2368), Josh Gordon ($15 / 0, 0.4308)

Jeff had some other fairly good picks (Kirk Cousins for $2, Doug Baldwin for $20), but DeMarco Murray for $16 was the jackpot for Jeff last season.  In fact, DeMarco was the best value RB of last season's draft (tied with LeGarrett Blount - see Justina).  Most people thought DeMarco wouldn't be relevant anymore, but Jeff put his money on Murray and it paid off.  However, he also put just about the same amount of money on Josh Gordon.  #LULZ  Remebz when we were fighting a bidding war over him, Jeff?  So glad you won that one.  But believe it or not, Alshon Jeffery was more of a dud according to my calculations.  Why?  Because Jeff spent $41 on him.  Sure, Josh Gordon scored zero points all season, but it was only a $15 loss.  Alshon Jeffery at $41?  You could have gotten Mike Evans ($37), Jordy Nelson ($36), T.Y. Hilton ($35), Brandon Marshall (Yes, that is for real - $35), Demaryius Thomas ($23), Julian Edelman ($22), Kelvin Benjamin ($18 - make that TWO KBs) - and you get the point - and spent the extra $4+ dollars on, oh, I don't know, Michael Thomas ($1), Rishard Matthews ($1), Terrell Pryor ($1), and Pierre Garcon ($1) - ALL who performed better than Jeffery at $41.

Justina

Good picks: Drew Brees ($15 / 406.32, 2.33), LeGarrett Blount ($1 / 225.9, 5.00)

So-so pick: Matt Forte ($17 / 153.6, 1.0556)

Bad picks: Brock Osweiler ($22 / 197.98, 0.1481, not actually taken into consideration), Keenan Allen ($36 / 6.3, 0.2031), Carolina D ($5 / 126, 0.1429)

Justina hit FF gold with LeGarrett Blount last season.  She paid a measly $1 to get the 7th highest scoring RB in the league.  Props.  Drew Brees also ended up being a worthy investment, as Justina paid less than what was shelled out for Andrew Luck and Carson Palmer ($16 each) for the 3rd highest scoring QB.  As far as the bad, Keenan Allen's injury left Justina high and dry, and even though they aren't listed, both Brandon Marshall and Randall Cobb under-performed / also were injured, and thus Justina overpaid for their services.  The $5 she spent on Carolina's D also ended up not being a good investment.  And I'll just forgive the Brock Osweiler pick, seeing as how she simply didn't want any leftover money, so she (unwisely) spent it all on him.  

Luke

Good pick: Ezekiel Elliott ($56 / 293.4, 2.00)

So-so picks: Antonio Gates ($2 / 94.8, 1.00), Denver D ($3 / 149, 1.00)

Bad picks: Jamaal Charles ($36 / 11.4, 0.2093), A.J. Green ($53 / 120.4, 0.1852)

To cut him some slack, Luke didn't even draft.  But anyone with a sane head on his shoulders should know never to let Aaron draft for him.  Ever.  So instead, Luke's draft fate was left in the hands of Yahoo / V.Putin.  They outsmarted us all and gave Luke a good ROI for Ezekiel Elliott (IMO, a rare exception to putting a bunch of money on a rookie), but the rest of his draft was underwhelming / stunk.  Jamaal Charles scored all of 11.4 points for the season, which means Luke / Yahoo / V.Putin paid approximately $3.15 per point and failed Tim's Draft Rule #281: Never pay more money than points that player will score all season.  Furthermore, A.J. Green earned a value rating of 0.1852 - ending up 27th in points rankings among WRs, even though he was the 5th highest auctioned WR at a whopping $53, over 25% of Luke's total draft moolah.  The only WR to underperform more than that was DeAndre Hopkins (see David Lin).  I think we can all agree that one should not leave the fate of his or her draft in the hands of Yahoo Autodraft / Voldemort Putin.  At least be like Duke and pre-set your auction prices beforehand.

Tim

Good pick: Sterling Shepard ($2 / 119.4, 1.7857)

So-so picks: Everyone else on my team

Bad pick: Doug Martin ($28 / 71.5, 0.375)

I don't need to be reminded of my sub-par / poor draft.  All my players ended up performing to about their value because I am risk averse and save all my money for the safe, middle-round picks, hoping I can catch a few sleepers to help me stay relevant during the season.  That way, I don't spend too much on someone who flops (DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green, Gronk, Todd Gurley, Adrian Peterson, Eddie Lacy, Cam - see other examples above), but that same sword makes my draft boring and leaves me with players like Doug Martin and Jonathan Stewart.  Sterling Shepard was my best "good pick" - so sad.  So the moral of this post?  Don't take draft advice from Tim.

Happy Drafting!