Tim's Power Rankings - Week 13 + Predictions

What?  Power rankings and predictions on the same day?  You better believe it.

Power Rankings - Week 13
[Previous Rank in brackets]

1.   (8-4, 1335.96 pts) [3] - Aaron's team is on a roll, and it doesn't look like it'll be stopping anytime soon.  Talk about late season surge.  His RB2 is weak, but it doesn't seem to be affecting his team at all.  His players have just been stepping up each week.  For the last 4 weeks, he's been the league's top scorer.  FOUR weeks in a row.  Hasn't scored less than 131 points since week 8.  Ridiculous.  Like I mentioned before, though - if the Packers decide to rest Rodgers before the NFL playoffs, Aaron could be in trouble.

2. (9-3, 1357.44 pts) [1] - Justina's team is much improved with a new QB, but Aaron's team is just way too hot right now.  Losing situation for Justina, but she's still putting up good numbers.  BJGE has been impressive in replacing the hole left by Forte.  I want to see a rematch of these top 2 teams in the finals.  It'd make for an interesting one.

3.  (7-5, 1314.82 pts) [2] - Tough loss last week for Jeff's team.  3-game losing streak.  But I don't have any less faith in his team putting up a fight in the playoffs.  The winter weather could hurt Brady's stats, but he'll be fighting for a better playoff spot, so I'm sure he'll play better to compensate.  Or I might just be totally wrong.

4.  (6-6, 1207.46 pts) [5] - Cam Newton will continue to be irked by all his losses and will try to prove that he can win.  GO PANTHERS!  I need my WRs to step up if I'm going to keep winning, though.  There are definitely inconsistencies on my team, but I think it looks better than the rest on paper.

5.  (7-5, 1207.66 pts) [7] - Luke has set himself up for a pretty good end of the season.  2 solid RBs (until McFadden returns..), good-to-decent WRs, and a solid QB.  Not bad at all.

6.  (6-6, 1196.12 pts) [6] - Rounding out the playoff field, David has had some nice pickups (Vince Young, Laurent Robinson, Carson Palmer?), but I don't think his team is in it for the long-run.  It's got enough holes to be inconsistent

7.   (6-6, 1128.34 pts) [4] - Eric's team has fallen hard.  The past 3 weeks have found him as the 9th, 8th, and last highest scoring team for each week.  John Kasay might be past his prime..

8.  (5-7, 1139.40 pts) [8] - David had an ok first season.  I think his biggest flaw was keeping Stafford on the bench for so long.  I think he could have definitely had a few more wins if those points were converted to game points through a trade.  Just sayin.


9.  (4-8, 1073.12 pts) [9] - Laura rebounded a little from her unimpressive start, but unfortunately, it wasn't enough to elevate her into the playoffs.  At least she wasn't last.

10.  (2-10, 1031.06 pts) [10] - I don't think Gabs checks his fantasy team anymore.  6-game losing streak.  It's not like he'll be able to lose out to draft Luck.  But I guess there comes a point when there's not much to play for anymore.  gg Gabs.


Week 13 Predictions
SUPER SPEED!

	Tim	Luke	David Lin	Eric	Laura	Justina
Last week's record	(3-2)	(0-0)	(0-0)	(0-0)	(0-0)	(0-0)
Overall record	(33-22)	(11-9)	(7-8)	(24-16)	(13-7)	(9-6)

odoyle RULES v. JUSTINA OWNS - I have to win this game to guarantee a spot in the playoffs.  Odoyle controls his own destiny.  odoyle RULES and WINS.  Please?

Spider Pig v. JohnKasay#1 - Eric wisely puts Tebow in, which may end up being his redeeming grace, but I don't think it'll be enough.  Spider Pig wins.

Rainbow Warriors v. The Debbinator - Patriots are playing the Colts.  Enough said.  Rainbow Warriors win.

RelientK v. aaronisyourdaddy - I think this one should be obvious.  Aaron wins.

THE Pain Train v. Terrific Tortoises - Let me just mention that it is still statistically possible for David to get into the playoffs.  Will it happen?  No.  But at least he can hope.  Tortoises win.

Tim's Predictions - Week 11

Ouch.  A tough prediction week for me.  So much for the gut feeling.  Another Thursday game this week pushes predictions up a little earlier.

	Tim	Luke	David Lin	Eric	Laura	Justina
Last week's record	(1-4)	(0-0)	(0-0)	(3-2)	(0-0)	(0-0)
Overall record	(30-20)	(11-9)	(7-8)	(24-16)	(13-7)	(9-6)

Tim's Predictions - Week 11
odoyle RULES v. Rainbow Warriors
Jeff wins it.  Not sure if it's due to my team's lack of prowess or Jeff's team's awesomeness.  I'm hoping for another low point scoring spree for Jeff's, but I guess I should be more realistic.

Spider Pig v. The Debbinator
Michael Bush doesn't put up another 30 point week, so David wins it.  Possibly even without a kicker.

JohnKasay#1 v. aaronisyourdaddy
That Aaron's team is so hot right now - he'll continue his win streak.

JUSTINA OWNS v. Terrific Tortoises
Justina still has a stronger team, even after the trade.  Justina wins and further separates herself from the rest.

RelientK v. THE Pain Train
Assuming Laura puts a defense in that can score a few points, I think she'll have this one in the bag.  Know that Laura's team has always lost when I predicted her to win.  So maybe I shouldn't predict her to win.  Or maybe this week will be the week.  Laura wins.

Sherlock Pig and the Case of the Best Manager

The pig was smoking his pipe, sipping on some scotch when he was approached by a young dame by the name of Chubs, wondering who had the leetest managerial skills in all the lands. With some sleuthing, he created the following analysis:

Key Assumptions:

• Analysis is based off each team's core players, which is the team's hypothetical starters in a given week (taking current bye week into account) plus their highest scoring non-QB bench/flex player. 
• Analysis bases total core team points based on two scenarios - current week and week 1 rosters. 
• Kickers do not count as real people (sorry John Kasay) since they score pretty similarly and there isn't a whole lot of strategy involved with managing kickers.

Analysis:

The pig considers three metrics in his study of the best manager. Points added/subtracted per core personnel moves, points added/subtracted per total moves, and total point differential between week 1 and current.

Managerial skill ranking by points per core move:

Looking at points added per core move, it would appear that the Rainbow Warrior is our league's best manager. The only core move here is Felix Jones to Willis McGahee. While this did his team a big upgrade, it's a little misleading since he only really made one move (sample size too small perhaps?). 

Managerial skill ranking by points per total moves:

This is also misleading, as Relient K is tied for the least number of total moves, hence why she gets the highest points on a total move basis. Furthermore, one could argue that total moves is more to manage the status quo or gain potential rather than true team improvement. 

Managerial skill by total point differential:

Jackpot. While you may jump straight to averages, the total variance illustrates a great story. Four teams have strategically positioned their teams to be better over the course of the season through active management, and most non-quantitative analyses would put these four teams at the top. 

• Aaron, always a meddler with his team, picked up Aaron Rodgers and Fred Jackson over the course of the season, while only losing Arian Foster and Marshawn Lynch (among other moves).
• odoyle's brilliant pickups of Cam Newton and Demarco DeMurray has done wonders for his team. He also stole Steve Smith from the Pig (I want him back).
• Pig rebounded from losing Jamaal Charles early with pickups of Reggie Bush and MJD (via trade). His numbers are slightly misleading as Michael Bush was counted in his week 1 numbers (good drafting!)

What have we learned? Make as many moves as you need in order to succeed. Sometimes, your team needs revamping, as you can see that the top two in managing prowess have ethe most core moves and are 2nd and 3rd in terms of total moves. However, make sure you make the right moves and be patient with your team, lest you end up like the Debbinator (he hurts because he dealt away Aaron Rodgers and Fred Jackson, but only gained Arian Foster. Also, his stats may be misleading as his starting QB is Carson Palmer, but for statistics sake, the Pig used A. Dalton's numbers)

One last quip before power rankings for coach/manager of the year... a quick look at week 1 pts vs current week points not only shows us the best managers, but also shows who drafted the best (or were the luckiest).

If held constant, Rainbow Justina and Debbinator would have the best teams in the league right now, from a total core team points view. Justina and Rainbow currently sit at the top, given their great drafting skills, not necessarily their managing skills. Particularly Rainbow (does Jeff even look at his team each week?). Justina cashed in with Megatron and Ray Rice. 

So without further ado, current standings for coach of the year:

1. Aaron Chou (aaronisyourdaddy) - need any explanation here?
2. Tim Chang (odoyle RULES) - he's made some serious moves thanks to the resurgence of the Panthers offense and  his team will be a hot pick for the low-seeded upset come tournament time
3. Luke Lin (Spider Pig) - this two time champion has struggled with underperforming players (Eagles) and big injuries (Best, Charles) but is still relevant in the playoff picture thanks to his managing skillz
4. Justina Chen (JUSTINA OWNS) - great drafting skills (luck?) with just the right moves (TBD after this Stafford trade) has put her team at the top of the league for the first time in her coaching career
5. Eric San (JohnKasay#1) - His changes haven't been monumental, outside of his picking up of Mike Wallace, but a strong core certainly helps his cause. His team is dangerous.
6. Jeff Chen (Rainbow Warriors) - purely on his yearly reliance on the Patriots, which has manifested in a great draft. Luckily he hasn't sabotaged his team... yet
7. David Li (Terrible Tortoises) - Matt Forte is a win in my book. This will make his team much stronger going forward. Too early to say that he got the better end of the deal?
8. David Lin (Debbinator) - OK so he's the only one with negative impact between week 1 and current BUT I think we can attribute most of that to his boneheaded dealing away of Aaron Rodgers. Ultimately, it's hard to say he's a bad manager when he drafted 2nd best and is currently 5th in the league. 
9. Laura Jones (RelientK) - 2nd worst team in the league has made a few moves to improve her team. This is why she's no longer last place.
10. Gabriel "Gabs" Yeung (the Pain Train) - last place team has tried revamping his squad (7 core personnel moves) but can't seem to find a winning formula. Don't worry, you're 1st place so far for the "Mike Singletary Coach of the Year award" 

Til next time...

Further Explanation:

The analysis is done with total points of your current team "core" (starters + top reserve) versus your "core" team if you had kept your week 1 players. The points are current year to date totals. For example...

Justina Owns (current): 1123.36 total points

• M. Stafford 
•  AJ Green 
•  B. Marshall
•  Calvin Johnson
•  Ray Rice
•  BJ Green Ellis
•  F. Davis
•  P. Garcon 
•  Kicker
•  Baltimore  

Justina Owns (week 1 hypothetical): 1049.02 total points

• B. Roethlisberger
•  K. Britt
•  B. Marshall
•  Calvin Johnson
•  Ray Rice
•  Matt Forte
•  Vernon Davis
•  Kicker 
•  S. janikowski
•  Pittsburgh  

Tim's Power Rankings - Week 11

So, what has happened to the #1 spot after this week?...


Power Rankings - Week 11
[Previous Rank in brackets]

1.   (8-2, 1126.00 pts) [2] - Justina gets the bump up not necessarily due to her team's performance this week, but more because of Jeff's team terrible week.  As far as the trade, the addition of Stafford should be a nice addition (if he can avoid performances like this past week's), but I'm not sure if it'll make up for her loss of Forte.  BJGE might work out, but she might need to look for other options.  Honestly, I think the trade makes the rest of the season and upcoming playoffs that much more unpredictable / interesting.

2. (7-3, 1106.72 pts) [1] - Jeff scores the least amount of points this week.  One could argue he should be bumped down further.  I'll attribute it to a one-week fluke.  I think his team still has umph.  In spite of the fact that  teams have figured out Wes Welker.

3.  (6-4, 1060.92 pts) [4] - Aaron's team has been skyrocketing to the top with back-to-back high-scoring weeks.  It sure doesn't hurt to have Aaron Rodgers, and this week it was Jordy Nelson that racked up big points.  Aaron's team is peaking at the right time.  Justina and Jeff, watch out.

4.  (6-4, 991.42 pts) [3] - Tough week for Eric, and a big part of his future success rests in how Gore's knee holds up.  I think his team can still put up big numbers, but we'll see if it actually will.  A hurt Gore could put him in a rut.

5.  (4-6, 1038.74 pts) [5] - Unbelievable.  3 games lost by 0.6 points or less.  And my next three games are against Jeff, Eric, and Justina.  Guess who might be the highest-scoring team that doesn't make the playoffs?  I'm not bitter.

6.  (5-5, 1018.86 pts) [6] - The Arian Foster trade is paying off big time.  Nice Laurent Robinson pickup as well.  Carson Palmer?  No Aaron Rodgers, but it might get him by.

7.   (5-5, 1006.34 pts) [7[ - I didn't realize Luke picked up Michael Bush in the draft and has kept him since.  Nice.  His 30 points definitely gave Luke the W this week (as well as MJD's 19 points), but will he be a long-term fix at the RB spot?  Not sure about that one.

8.  (4-6, 932.04 pts) [9] - David got the win, but only because he played Eric, the 2nd lowest scoring team this week.  His team gets a bump up anyways because of the addition of Forte.  It's amazing how much one RB can make an RB duo look so much better.


9.  (3-7, 905.72 pts) [8] - A slight dip in the rankings.  Does it really matter at this point?

10.  (2-8, 893.24 pts) [10] - Sorry, I've run out of interesting things to say.  Clearly.

The best QB ever

"Haters gonna hate" - Carson Palmer (Not really)

Waiting

What happened to the previously promised analysis?

Here is a 44-second song to express how I feel about waiting for said analysis.  Hopefully, it will brighten your day.

John Kasay's Week 10 Predictions!

Early game this week. Let's make this quick.

JohnKasay#1 vs. Terrific Tortoises
aI don't know why but I'm slightly scared of the match-up this week. On paper, David has a lot of favorable players in his lineup. Plus, I'm on a 5 game win streak, that's rare. Could this be the week I lose? Perhaps but I'd like to give the edge to Philip Rivers (he carries me this week) just like last week. GO PACK!

odoyle RULES vs. Spider Pig
Tim has his Panther's line up back this week. Will get back on the winning track after last week's loss. Plus, how good a pick up was DeMarco Murray AND Antonio Brown?! Kudos to Mr. Chang. Luke has 2 Bush's as his RB's this week. Prepare to get bush-whacked! Tim wins. Go PANTHERS!

Rainbow Warriors vs. aaronisyourdaddy
I'm not trying to hate on Jeff's team but he seriously got SO lucky last week. I predicted him to lose because his pretty boy Patriots would stink it up.. (which happened in the first half of the game score: 0-0) and then they got a couple big hook up plays from Brady to Welker.. lucky if you ask me. and then V-Jax catches THREE touchdowns and Mcgahee reels off two 60+ yd runs? Not gonna happen this week. YOU CAN BANK ON IT. Also, aaron has Aaron. which is normally always a deciding factor.

JUSTINA OWNS vs. THE Pain Train
I predicted the upset of the year-to-date last week when Laura beat Justina. More love for Justina this week as I predict she will win.... okay, maybe not so much love as in Gabs' team just sucks... bad.. almost as bad as UNC's football team. that's right.

RelientK vs. The Debbinator
Carson Palmer? Yikes. That will be the reason David loses this week, IF he loses. But I don't think he will because of his stronger WR's & RB's. sorry Laura Wanyin Jones! It'll be close but no cigar!