FFNUTHANG 2022 Post-Draft / Pre-Season #PowerRankings

Reviving the blog because FB bots keep deleting my post to the group as spam. I wrote the bulk of this post before waivers ran Monday morning, so the rosters haven’t been updated to reflect current rosters, just FYI. And if you don’t like the rankings, then I welcome alternative rankings from anyone else. Otherwise, I said what I said.

FFNUTHANG 2022 Post-Draft / Pre-Season #PowerRankings

1. Run It Back! (0-0)
QB - Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan
WR - Davante Adams, DK Metcalf, Marquise Brown, Julio Jones, Romeo Doubs
RB - Jonathan Taylor, Aaron Jones, Rachaad White, Isaiah Pacheco, Isaiah Spiller
TE - Irv Smith Jr.
K - Nick Folk
DEF - New England 

FFNUTHANG's current dyNASTYc GOAT has once again put together a solid team in pursuit of his 4th championship. With arguably the most coveted player in FF right now in Jonathan Taylor as the cornerstone of his team, Gabs was able to also pick up another potential Top-10 RB in Aaron Jones as well as a Top-5 WR in Davante Adams. Add future hall of famer Aaron Rodgers along with what should be a solid New England Defense that starts the season playing the Dolphins and Steelers, and Gabs should be rolling to start the season. His most obvious weakness is TE as well as his unproven young bench. But that bench may end up playing to his favor. I like the odds of at least one of them being productive this season - between Romeo Doubs, Rachaad White, Isaiah Pacheco, and Isaiah Spiller - it’ll just take some time before that production develops. You could argue that Gabs’s WR2 and WR3 aren’t great since DK Metcalf has a terrible QB and Marquise Brown will eventually be less relevant once Hopkins returns, but they are still beast athletes who can probably give Gabs enough production to start the season, at least until Gabs can find more help from his bench or the waiver wire.

2. MulletMinshewMania! (0-0)
QB - Russell Wilson
WR - Justin Jefferson, Jerry Jeudy, Chase Claypool, Michael Gallup, Jarvis Landry, Treylon Burks, Jakobi Meyers
RB - Joe Mixon, D’Andre Swift, Raheem Mostert, Mark Ingram II
TE - Mike Gesicki
K - Rodrigo Blankenship
DEF - Tennessee
At first, I wasn’t sure if Eric would have enough chops to put together a decent team after he landed Justin Jefferson to start the draft. I think he went pretty conservative in not overspending on the big name RBs, and that gave him the muscle to outbid everyone for Mixon and Swift. I think that RB combo is pretty solid - I’m optimistic that Swift will have a breakout season and if Mixon can stay healthy, he’ll get production in the Bengals’s high-powered offense. I like that Eric built the Russell Wilson / Jerry Jeudy stack, and if Jeudy emerges as Russ’s favorite target, that would pay out big dividends for Eric. I do think Russ has a decent chance of vying for league MVP this season. Also, props for the stealth Rodrigo Blankenship pickup - I feel like we’ve forgotten about him after his injury last season, and he was a beast when healthy. But I can’t get excited about the rest of his team. He may struggle filling the Flex position to start, and I doubt Gesicki will be any good if he stays with the Dolphins - Eric’s best hope is he gets traded to a team that will throw to him.

3. Kupp of Joe (0-0)
QB - Kyler Murray
WR - Michael Pittman Jr., Allen Robinson II, Rashod Bateman, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Robbie Anderson, Tyler Boyd, Jameson Williams
RB - Dalvin Cook, Saquon Barkley, Devin Singletary
TE - Zach Ertz
K - Matt Prater, Brandon McManus
DEF - Baltimore
A lot of Andrew’s outlook hinges on your opinion of Saquon Barkley. There are reports that say he looks as good as he’s ever looked, but that’s easy to say when a guy is in practice. I have some baggage from being burned by Saquon last year, but I’ll admit if he’s anywhere close to his rookie season, Andrew will have the best RB duo in the league in Cook and Saquon. And for Andrew’s sake - to redeem himself from Sacko shame - I hope that happens. Kyler was also a good pickup at QB, and Andrew might even have a (mini) stack with Ertz at TE. I like the potential upside of his 3 WRs - Michael Pittman (with an upgrade at QB), Allen Robinson (upgrade at QB), and Rashod Bateman (no more Marquise Brown). And Baltimore has a pretty cush 2 weeks to start the season against the Jets and Dolphins. I would have thought he’d add a little more depth at RB in case it doesn’t work out for Saquon, but maybe Andrew just has that much confidence in him. If I had more confidence in Saquon, I’d probably have Andrew’s team at the top of the rankings, but 3rd place is pretty generous, considering he was Sacko last year.

4. Breece Mode (0-0)
QB - Tom Brady
WR - DJ Moore, Terry McLaurin, Chris Godwin, Isaiah McKenzie
RB - Alvin Kamara, James Conner, Breece Hall, Kareem Hunt, Alexander Mattison, Darrell Henderson Jr., Gus Edwards
TE - Travis Kelce
K - Justin Tucker
DEF - LA Rams
Haji pieced together a pretty decent team, with his first pick of Travis Kelce establishing his team’s positional dominance at TE. It sucked a lot of resources from his other positions, but I’d say having Tom Brady at QB, DJ Moore / Terry McLaurin / Chris Godwin at WR 1 / 2 / Flex, and Alvin Kamara and James Conner at RBs are all actually pretty good supplements to his Kelce centerpiece. Haji getting Kamara for $48 and James Conner for $29 were two great value picks at that position. He also has some decent depth at RB to buy him some time before Breece Hall breaks out, too. I think if / when that happens, Haji’s team’s stock will go up big time. So while Haji’s team doesn’t have any sexy picks outside of maybe Kelce, I don’t think he has any glaring weaknesses on his team.

5. 第十一 (0-0)
QB - Jalen Hurts
WR - Stefon Diggs, Mike Evans, Christian Kirk, DeAndre Hopkins, Kadarius Toney
RB - Leonard Fournette, JK Dobbins, Dameon Pierce, AJ Dillon, Kenneth Gainwell, Chris Evans
TE - TJ Hockenson
K - Harrison Butker
DEF - Cleveland
I’m sure Abraham doesn’t like seeing Leonard Fournette as his RB1, but I feel like he just needs one of JK Dobbins / Dameon Pierce / AJ Dillon to hit and Abraham will be golden. Personally, I think the chances of one of those players breaking out are pretty high. With Stefon Diggs, Mike Evans, and Christian Kirk at WR, Abraham should have enough leeway to wait out Hopkins’s suspension, after which point Abraham could have a very scary team. Add to that Jalen Hurts’s ability to score as a running QB and Cleveland’s Defense starting the season playing the Panthers, Jets, Steelers, and Falcons, and I’d say this may be the season Abraham breaks away from his team name and creates a new rep for himself.

6. AFC West (0-0)
QB - Justin Herbert, Matthew Stafford
WR - Ja’Marr Chase, Deebo Samuel, Adam Thielen, Christian Watson
RB - Javonte Williams, Melvin Gordon III, Eli Mitchell, Cordarrelle Patterson, Ronald Jones II
TE - Dallas Goedert
K - Matt Gay
DEF - San Francisco, LA Chargers
I feel like Jeff Chen’s team’s name should actually be NFC + AFC West. He’s got just as many players on his team in the NFC West as he does in the AFC West. Right? Jeff is strong at QB with a red hot Justin Herbert, strong at WR1 with a red hot Ja’Marr Chase, but that’s where my excitement for his team stops. I like Javonte Williams’s outlook for the season, but not as an RB1, and definitely not with Melvin Gordon as an RB2. Sure, it worked out at times last year, but the math of two RBs on the same team in the same position doing well just generally doesn’t add up - it’s definitely more of an exception (a la Kamara / Ingram of old). I’m not sure if this will be one of those exceptions with a new QB and new offense that I’m sure will want to air the ball out more this season. Jeff’s got a little wiggle room at RB with Eli Mitchell and Cordarrelle, but again, it doesn’t get me excited. Deebo Samuel is good, but I think there will be some growing pains with Trey Lance to start the season, and Adam Thielen is just getting old.

7. Terrific Tortoises (0-0)
QB - Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa
WR - Courtland Sutton, Amari Cooper, Drake London, Russell Gage
RB - Austin Ekeler, Travis Etienne Jr., Nyheim Hines, Khalil Herbert
TE - Darren Waller, David Njoku
K - Robbie Gould
DEF - Buffalo, New Orleans
The reigning FFNUTHANG champion surprised me a little with the moniez he paid for Ekeler ($73), Etienne ($31), and Josh Allen ($35). I guess David knew what he wanted and just went for it. Admittedly, Ekeler + Etienne is a solid RB duo. And Buffalo should have a beastly defense this year. And yes, Josh Allen has been a FF beast at QB, but regression at QB after such a big season is almost always inevitable. I do think Courtland Sutton has just as much (if not slightly better) chance of emerging as Russell Wilson’s favorite target than any of the other Denver options, but I can’t really get behind Amari Cooper, Drake London, and Russell Gage as options for WR2 / Flex - that just feels gross. For David’s sake, I hope one of them surprises me. Also, I’m hesitant about Darren Waller, because I think he’s very target-dependent, and targets will be diverted with Davante now as his teammate. So all in all, I think David has some good pieces, but he also has some gaping holes in his roster that make me worried about his chances of repeating as champion this season.

8. Me and MaHomies (0-0)
QB - Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow
WR - Cooper Kupp, Michael Thomas, Brandin Cooks, Gabriel Davis, Darnell Mooney
RB - Nick Chubb, Cam Akers, Tony Pollard
TE - George Kittle, Pat Freiermuth
K - Evan McPherson, Daniel Carlson
DEF - Tampa Bay
With Mahomes and Kupp as the foundation of Jeff Lin’s newly-named team, Jeff is looking to redeem himself from missing last year’s playoffs. But outside of Mahomes and Kupp, I actually don’t love his team. I think it has a lot of potential surprises (Michael Thomas supposedly looks a lot better, Gabriel Davis has the potential to breakout as Josh Allen’s 2nd option, Tony Pollard could outwork / outplay Zeke), but there are also question marks that make me feel uneasy (How bad is the Cleveland offense going to be, and will defenses just hone in on shutting down Chubb? Is Cam Akers actually healthy, and can he stay healthy? Can Trey Lance support George Kittle?). The Bucs ought to have a good defense in a division with crappy offenses, but all the other unknown variables of Jeff’s team prevent me from giving them a bump up in the rankings.

9. Unicorn QueenZ (0-0)
QB - Trevor Lawrence, Baker Mayfield
WR - CeeDee Lamb, Mike Williams, Hunter Renfrow, DeVonta Smith, Robert Woods, Chris Olave, Jahan Dotson
RB - Christian McCaffrey, Chase Edmonds, James Robinson, Brian Robinson Jr., Kenneth Walker III
TE - Mark Andrews
K -
DEF -
I just can’t quit CMC. Even if it will cost me another missed playoffs this season. The optimistic side of me is hoping he will be the reason I (and the Panthers) reach the playoffs this season, but I am well aware of the unfavorable odds of him getting injured again, and will just readily admit that I have an incurable man-crush on him. What about the rest of my team? I don’t mind Chase Edmonds as my RB2, but it doesn’t get me excited. Brian Robinson showed promise before he got shot, so am now just unrealistically hoping that none of my other RBs gets hurt. I do like my WR squad - I think CeeDee’s stock will continue to go up, Mike Williams will eventually out-target and out-perform an aging Keenan Allen, and Hunter Renfrow should be valuable in half-PPR. This is my first year going big on TE, so we’ll see how well that plays out - I’m still on the fence about how I feel about that move. And my QB situation is just a hot mess. So in summary, I’m just hoping for an injury-free CMC, and for Mark Andrews and CeeDee Lamb to dominate and carry my team into FF relevance. The rest will be icing on the cake, including Baker Mayfield’s Week 1 extravaganza against his former team.

10. choubacca (0-0)
QB - Dak Prescott, Justin Fields
WR - Tyreek Hill, Tee Higgins, AJ Brown, Diontae Johnson
RB - Ezekiel Elliott, Antonio Gibson, Rashaad Penny, Damien Harris
TE - Dawson Knox, Albert Okwuegbunam
K - Greg Joseph
DEF - Denver, Green Bay
I know a lot of people are bearish on Ezekiel Elliott, but I thought $31 for him was still a steal. However, I think Dallas’s weakened O-line will not bode well for Zeke, Dak, or Aaron. Antonio Gibson’s stock has gone down since training camp, but he’s still technically a starter (especially with Brian Robinson being out for who knows how long) and will at least get touches. Damien Harris could serve as an RB2 as well. But in general, I don’t love Aaron’s RBs - they just seem serviceable for now. It’s hard to know how Tyreek Hill will fare in a new offense with a young QB, but I still like his chances of putting up elite fantasy points. And Tee Higgins / AJ Brown as WR2 / Flex is pretty good - Aaron’s strength is definitely at WR. Knox could be a value pick at TE, and Denver has a fairly easy starting schedule with Seattle and Houston. But I think Aaron’s struggles will start with Dallas’s offense and extend to finding a reliable RB2, and I don’t think his WRs will be able to help enough to make up for that lost production.

11. Chicken dinner (0-0)
QB - Lamar Jackson, Kirk Cousins
WR - Keenan Allen, Allen Lazard, Tyler Lockett, DeVante Parker, Kenny Golladay
RB - Derrick Henry, David Montgomery, Josh Jacobs, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Miles Sanders, Jamaal Williams
TE - Kyle Pitts
K -
DEF - Indianapolis
Steve is actually really deep at RB - probably the deepest in our league at that position. After Derrick Henry as his RB1, David Montgomery and / or Josh Jacobs and / or Clyde Edwards-Helaire and / or Miles Sanders will probably return some RB2 / Flex value. Kyle Pitts ought to have a great season this year, and I like Lamar Jackson as his QB. Add to that Indianapolis starting the season playing Houston and Jacksonville. But Steve’s WRs are just a mess. Keenan Allen is aging, Allen Lazard could emerge as Rodgers top target, but that’s still TBD, Tyler Lockett is the 2nd option for an irrelevant QB, DeVante Parker has a noob QB in a dysfunctional offense throwing to him, and let’s not even get started on Kenny Golladay. In a half-PPR league, you need to bring more than a bunch of WR2 / WR3s to play. I would argue Keenan Allen is a mid-level WR2, and the rest of Steve’s WRs are low-end WR3s or worse.

12. Spider Pig (0-0)
QB - Derek Carr, Trey Lance
WR - Jaylen Waddle, Elijah Moore, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Brandon Aiyuk, Amon-Ra St. Brown
RB - Najee Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, Michael Carter, James Cook
TE - Dalton Schultz, Cole Kmet
K - Tyler Bass
DEF - Dallas
I know Justina still reads these posts, so I will try not to be too harsh, but it’s hard to deny that Luke ended up with the ugliest team. Outside of Najee Harris, I don’t see anyone that scares me if I were to play Luke Week 1 (lucky Jeff Lin). But let’s try to be optimistic here. At QB - Derek Carr might get a bump up with Davante Adams.. but he’s still Derek Carr; Trey Lance may pan out as a fantasy asset - ok, I could buy that, but I think it will take time. At WR - Jaylen Waddle may get a boost from playing opposite Tyreek.. but realistically, doubtful-to-nah; Elijah Moore looked good in spurts last season and maybe just needed another year to develop.. but he plays for the Jets; JuJu Smith-Schuster may win out the leading role in KC.. but he’s been hurt; Brandon Aiyuk has breakout potential.. but also has an injury history; Amon-Ra St. Brown looked good to end the season last year - and yeah, I can see a pathway for him to be a breakout this year. So there may be a little hope. I guess Luke has some potential sleepers in James Cook and Cole Kmet, but I’m just trying to reach for anything at this point. It looks like Luke will need a miracle to keep himself out of Sacko contention this season. Maybe ask Justina not to watch TV while she’s drafting next year.

FFNuThang 2020 Regular Season: A Retrospective

I thought it would be fun to gather this year's regular season FFNuThang data and examine how each of our teams performed--hopefully it'll become an annual tradition.  I admit this post would have been more timely in December, but I needed some emotional recovery time.  Still, maybe it's better late than never.

But before diving into the analysis, a shout-out is warranted.  Big thanks to Tim for continuing to do what he does as commissioner and primary power ranker.  This season more than others posed particular challenges with COVID-19 ravaging teams both fantasy and real.  Nonetheless, Tim addressed these hurdles calmly and fairly, allowing the league to proceed with minimal disruption.  Color me impressed and appreciative, if not surprised.  

[Edited to add: at the risk of heaping too much praise on Tim, I think we're all also incredibly grateful his Thanksgiving-themed power rankings (maybe the best ever?), which offered such nuggets as:

• [Aaron's] Thanksgiving Day Comp: Tofurkey. You fake, bro. Why do vegans like to try to make imitation food (tofurkey) that not only doesn’t taste like the actual food (turkey), but tastes worse than if you had just made that food how it should be made (tofu)? Sorry to any vegans out there, but tofurkey is no good. It tries to be a legit turkey, and thinks it’s a legit turkey (“easily a top 5 team”), but it’s actually and obviously not (bottom 5 in Points For). I would much rather eat some deliciously-stir-fried tofu by itself than some lame-and-overly-salted version of tofu-as-turkey.
• [Steve's] Thanksgiving Day Comp: Paper Plates. First of all, it’s not even edible - that’s how bad Steve’s team has gotten. But I’m not even talking about the nice sturdy plates with designs on the edges and stuff. I’m talking about those plates that you have to stack three or four on top of each other to maybe get enough structural integrity. The ones where the food just falls off the side because there is no side lip, or the sauce gets soaked up immediately by the plate. The ones that work better as a kids craft supply than it does at being a plate. You know your Thanksgiving dinner is going to suck if you’re eating it off of basically a glorified paper towel.]

And now onto the data.

I've broken the post down into two parts:

• Part A provides a series of charts/tables/graphs offering a broad data overview of the league as a whole.
• Part B evaluates each team's performance over the season, examining their highs and lows and season trends.

Part A: Data Overview

(The images in this section are screenshots from data available here and here)

Weekly Average Win Probabilities

This chart is the result of my frustrations at the beginning of the season when I kept taking Ls despite my relatively high weekly point totals.  In other words, I wasn't losing because my team was bad, but because I was getting unlucky match-ups.

To "remove" such luck in evaluating a team's quality, I thought it made sense to look at the probability that a team should win based on its point total compared to those of all other teams ("win probability").  For example, if a team scored the 2nd highest point total for a week, then its win probability for that week would be 90.91% (=10/11 because it would have beaten 10 of 11 other teams).

The below chart presents each team's weekly average win probability during the regular season.

Final Regular Season Ranking v. Probability Ranking

Tied to the previous chart, this one provides a comparison of each team's actual final season ranking against its ranking based on win probability.  The "matchup luck" column reflects the difference between those two rankings (i.e., how many much a team's ranking dropped or rose as a result of luck).

Points Scored - Various Statistics

This chart lists each team's season point totals/averages (in descending order), as well as its median points scored and standard deviation in points scored over the season.

Season Trends - Weekly Point Totals and Weekly Win Probabilities

The following two graphs show each team's "points scored" and "win probability" trends over the season.  The graphs in these forms are fairly unreadable, but you can see the disaggregated data on the Data Studios Report as well as in each team's summary below in Part B.

Part B: Individual Team Performances

Because this post focuses on regular season data, this section evaluates each team in order of their final regular season ranking.

1. choubacca

• choubacca Highlights: regular season (and playoffs) champ; 2x high scorer for the week; “top 5” in each of win probability % (#5) and total points scored/weekly average (#3)
• choubacca Lowlights: 1x low scorer for the week; bottom in standard deviation over the season (#12); not "top 5" in median weekly score
• choubacca Summary: all's well that end's well, and the season certainly ended well for Aaron's team. Unsurprisingly, Aaron talked a lot of trash over the course of the season, sometimes with vague -- and therefore irrefutable -- statements like "I have a top 5 team, easily." And while that statement rightfully deserved scorn, Aaron's team was able to go big when it counted despite having the most erratic overall performance. For example, Aaron's week 12 win was not only the highest score of the week, but also the highest score for any week throughout the season and by a good amount (see first graph below). And Aaron's week 13 win (over me 😢) was crucial to earning his regular season title. So even though it hurts, I have to tip my hat to you, Aaron.  Your team was a top 1 team, easily.

PS: if there's one thing I can take solace in, it's that I at least didn't trade Dalvin Cook for Aaron Jones.

Preseason Projections

PPS: I'll admit that Aaron already acknowledged that Dalvin Cook was better than Aaron Jones midway through the season.

 

2. Spider Pig

• Spider Pig Highlights: 2x high scorer for the week; top 5 in each of win probability % (#4), total points scored/weekly average (#5), and median weekly score (#4)
• Spider Pig Lowlights: near the bottom in standard deviation over the season (#10); biggest loss differential of all season (loss by 104 points)
• Spider Pig Summary: Luke's team had a stronger start than finish, and you can see the general downward trend in his points scored over the season (first graph below).  Still, his team was able to ride the highs from the beginning of the season into the playoffs, and punctuated the end of the regular season with a signature win over Jeff Chen's team. But it was a pyrrhic victory at best, paving the way for Aaron's team to claim the regular season crown (and ultimately the playoff championship).  
  
  
  Interestingly, Luke is also the source of Aaron's other major regular season highlight: biggest win differential (or loss differential) of all season, coming in at a whopping 104-point difference in week 12.  For reference, the next biggest differential was 69.16 points (Aaron’s Week 7 win against Jeff, suggesting that Aaron has some control over which matchups in which he wants his team to show up).  Of course much credit there is due to Aaron’s absurdly high score (157.3, highest all season across all teams), but much credit is also due to Luke's absurdly low score (53.3, second lowest all season across all teams).  If I didn't know better, I -- and surely Jeff Chen -- would suspect some collusion.  But of course I know better.

3. El Jefe

• El Jefe Highlights: 2x high scorer for the week; top 5 in each of win probability % (#1), total points scored/weekly average (#2), median weekly score (#2), and standard deviation over the season (#5)
• El Jefe Lowlights: 1x low scorer for the week
• El Jefe Summary: Unlike Aaron's team, Jeff Chen's team really does have a true claim to being a "top 5 team" across all standard metrics.  Looking at both weekly points scored and win probabilities, you can see the consistency in Jeff's team throughout the season (both graphs below).  Outside of Jeff Chen's' week 7 stinker, it's pretty tough to find substantial faults in Jeff Chen's team.  Based solely on objective measures, Jeff Chen's was arguably the best team in the league once matchup luck is removed from the equation.  But luck is always in play, and an unfortunate week 12 matchup and a relatively poor week 13 showing cost him the regular season title (and a first round bye in the playoffs).

4. Terrific Tortoises

• Terrific Tortoises Highlights: top 5 in each of win probability % (#2), total points scored/weekly average (#1), median weekly score (#1), and standard deviation over the season (#1)
• Terrific Tortoises Lowlights: paying $32 FAB for Ryquell Armstead, who would never play
• Terrific Tortoises Summary: I may be operating with blinders, but it's hard to me to find material weaknesses in my team. I think it's fair to say that my team is the only one that can compete with Jeff Chen's for the title of "best team in the league" after discounting for matchup luck.  My team dominated across the objective metrics, not just by being in the "top 5," but by being top 2 in win probability, and then being the top team in every other category.  True to its namesake, my team remained steady throughout the season.  It only dropped below the 50% win probability mark twice throughout the season (first graph below), and remained consistently above league average in scoring (second graph below).  But also true to its namesake, my team just couldn’t demonstrate hare-like scoring bursts.  Although it never scored below 9th place in any week, it also never earned the highest score for any week.  Maybe that inability to crank things up to a higher gear is what ultimately failed my team. Or maybe it was the unlucky matchup in week 13, on top of unlucky matchups in weeks 1, 3, 5, and 6.
  
  
  But what good does it do me to stay fixated on bad luck?  As I was stewing in my saltiness over how the season ended, I found inspiration in one DFWs tennis essays:  "It turns out that a portion of the talent required to survive . . . is emotional. . . .  When [tennis pro Michael Joyce] points out that there’s 'no point' getting exercised about unfairnesses you can’t control, I think what he’s really saying is that you either learn how not to get upset about it or you disappear from the Tour."  So in that spirit, I'll stay focused on looking forward to next season.

5. Run It Back!

• Run It Back! Highlights: 1x high scorer for the week; top 5 in each of win probability % (#3), total points scored/weekly average (#4), median weekly score (#3), and standard deviation over the season (#4)
• Run It Back! Lowlights: 1x low scorer for the week
• Run It Back! Summary: I stand by what I said before: people were sleeping on Gabs's team.  It was one of the few to finish the season in the top 5 in across all objective metrics and showed an inverse trend to Luke's team.  That is, Gabs's team had a slow start, but trended upward as the season progressed.  In fact, when you only look at the stats for weeks 7-12, Gabs’s team was at the top of the league in each of win probability % (#1), total points scored/weekly average (#2), median weekly score (#1), and standard deviation (#3) (see table and chart below).  Between having a strong start and a strong finish, the latter’s probably the better option and it seems fitting that Gabs's team prevailed over Luke's for 3rd place in the playoffs.

6. Tres Chicos

• Tres Chicos Highlights: 3x high scorer for the week
• Tres Chicos Lowlights: 2x low scorer for the week; bottom half in each of win probability % (#8), median weekly score (#9), and standard deviation over the season (#10)
• Tres Chicos Summary: Jeff Lin's team was a roller coaster ride with high highs and low lows. While his team earned high scorer of the week more times than anyone else's (3x), it also had more than it's fair share of weeks as low scorer (2x).  Of the teams that were in the top half in total points scored/weekly average (#6), Jeff Lin's team was the only one that wasn't in the top half in win probability % (#8).  With an average win probability of 45.45%, Jeff Lin's team should have had a losing record if all luck were removed.  In fact, in weeks 7, 8, 9, and 12, Jeff Lin walked away with wins even though the odds were against him based on points scored by the each other team in the league.  
  
  
  But who’s to let data get in the way of a good time.  Jeff Lin’s team is best embodied by two mantras: (1) go big or go home and (2) it’s better to be lucky than good.  And by going big when it counted and riding that luck, Jeff Lin’s team edged his way into the final playoff spot (and ultimately secured the silver medal in the playoffs).  An impressive showing for Jeff Lin in his rookie season in the league.

7. 第十一

• 第十一 Highlights: top 5 in standard deviation over the season (#3)
• 第十一 Lowlights: paying $63 FAB for Nyheim Hines, only to drop him 3 weeks later
• 第十一 Summary: Abraham's team was at best the the poster child of a middling team.  It was never the low scorer or high scorer for the week, and racked up fairly steady point totals throughout the season (with weeks 6-7 as outliers).  His team just barely made the top half of the league in win probability % (#6), and just fell short of the top half in total points scored/weekly average (#7).  His team's median weekly score was also just a hair below the league average of median weekly scores (98.26 v. 99.45).  Abraham's team wasn't quite “第十一”, but also certainly wasn't “第一” -- really just “馬馬虎虎”.

8. #LetRussCook!

• #LetRussCook! Highlights: 1x high score of the week; apt team name
• #LetRussCook! Lowlights: 1x low score of the week; bottom half in each of win probability % (#11), total points scored/weekly average (#8), median weekly score (#11), and standard deviation over the season (#7).
• #LetRussCook! Summary: The best part of Eric' team was probably his team name.  Unquestionably, Russ Cooked pretty much every week of the season or at the very least kept things on a simmer.  Unfortunately, the rest of Eric’s team was cooked.  A few of his players showed sparks here and there, but generally couldn’t offer consistent production.   That said, Eric's team managed to stay pretty clear of Sacko throughout the season, despite his bottom-of-the-barrel win probability %.  So at least there's that bright spot.

9. Kupp of Joe

• Kupp of Joe Highlights: not Sacko; blockbuster trade to get CMC
• Kupp of Joe Lowlights: 1x low scorer of the week; bottom half in each of win probability % (#7), total points scored/weekly average (#11), median weekly score (#8), and standard deviation over the season (#8); blockbuster trade to get CMC
• Kupp of Joe Summary: Andrew's team had a some solid runs in weeks 3-5 and 8-10, but was a wreck for almost every other week in the season.  His week 12 nadir wasn't just the lowest score of the week (46.6, which was less than 30% of Aaron’s score the same week), but was the absolute lowest score all season across the league.  
  
  
  To his credit, Andrew knew he had to do something big to salvage his season and swung for the fences in week 10 with a trade for CMC.  That took mettle and you've got to respect it.  Andrew's team might best embody the mantra "high risk, high reward," but in this case it fell victim to that high risk, ultimately housing a CMC who wouldn't suit up for the remainder of the season.  Sometimes you just don't have either option of being good or being lucky.

10. Maybabyboo

• Maybabyboo Highlights: Top half in standard deviation over the season (#6)
• Maybabyboo Lowlights: 2x low score of the week; bottom half in each of win probability (#10), total points scored/weekly average (#9), and median weekly score (#10)
• Maybabyboo Summary: On the bright side, Laura’s team didn’t have to fight against bad luck.  Her team’s chance at winning was above 50% for 5 weeks and her team actually won 5 weeks.  Her team’s final regular season rank matched exactly her team’s “probability” rank. 
  
  
  On the flip side, her team’s final regular season rank matched exactly her team’s “probability” rank.  Her team’s chance at winning was below 50% for 8 weeks and her team actually lost 8 weeks. On a week-by-week basis, Laura's team regularly scored below league average, and in fact failed to top the league average in any week after week 7.*  Laura has better seasons to look forward to.
  
  
  *Note: Laura's team did score above the league median in week 11, but the league average was skewed higher because three teams had significantly higher scores than the rest of the league.

11. Unicorn QueenZ

• Unicorn QueenZ Highlights: 1x scoring champ; near the top of the league in standard deviation over the season (#2); not Sacko
• Unicorn QueenZ Lowlights: bottom half in each of win probability % (#9), total points scored/weekly average (#10), and median weekly score (#7); flirted with Sacko for most of the season
• Unicorn QueenZ Summary: Although Tim's team was consistent, it was consistently in the bottom half of the league.  I mean, just look at the graphs below--only one team might look at it with envy.
  
  
  Still, I'd bet Tim was absolutely giddy by the end of the regular season.  They say that bronze medalists are happier than silver medalists because, while the former is just happy to have placed, the latter can't shake the feeling of how close they were to winning the gold.  With that same principle in mind, I'm sure Tim couldn't stop thinking about how he was spared the Sacko title, despite how close he'd come.
  
  

.

12. Chicken dinner

• Chicken dinner Highlights: 1x high scorer for the week

• Chicken dinner Lowlights: 4x low scorer for the week; bottom of the barrel in each of win probability % (#12), total points scored/weekly average (#12), median weekly score (#12), and standard deviation (#11); Sacko

• Chicken dinner Summary: I mean...just look at those graphs. This clearly wasn't Steve's year. He was the low scorer of the week twice as often as any other team, and only scored above the league average in three weeks out of the entire season. Outside of week 4, Steve's team didn't have a strong start to the season, yet still managed to show a downward trend as the season progressed (see second graph below).
  
  
  I like Steve. He's a great guy and it brings me joy to see him.  I also understand that he got into stock trading this year, so I hope that’s going well for him.  But I also hope that he’s training up for the NFL combine drills because we’re going to hold him to it and save the video forever.

Beginning of Week 3 Thoughts in GIFs

Hi Friends-

I've got some extra time on my hands for the next two weeks, so I figured what the heck... I'll update the blog. Hoooooray!

- Jeff

via GIPHY


The past week summed up in 10 memes...

1) When I look at this week's waiver wire history and realize Andrew has cornered the TE market:

via GIPHY

2) When I look at Abraham's waiver wire pick-ups/bench and realize he has a total of 7 WRs:

via GIPHY

3) I guess it's not all that surprising to see that Andrew (11) and Abraham (10) lead the league in waiver wire moves:

via GIPHY

4) My reaction to winning Fitzmagic in the Week 2 waiver wire sweepstakes:


via GIPHY

I would be lying though if I said that I didn't have some doubts about him...

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5) Wait, Aaron didn't play the waiver wire this week???

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Must be because he's too busy running a Y combinator-backed tech startup! Congrats A-aron!

via GIPHY

6) Anybody else scared of Gabs's team?

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Yep, I thought so.

7) Good to see Tim and Laura bounce back from crummy Week 1s . Welcome to the 100 point club mi amigos!

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8) Aaron, what happened in Week 2?

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9) Eric, how old/bad is Lesean McCoy these days?

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More importantly, why do you keep playing him?

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10) Last but not least, this sums up my thoughts on Luke's team:

via GIPHY

I think it's safe to say... "Jeff Luke, your team sucks".

In the wise words of Gabs, maybe you should "just fold" Luke.



Best of luck in Week 3 folks!

TrendZ & The Art of Auction Drafting

Now that we have 4 seasons of auction drafting under our belts, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at each manager's past tendencies and how they have played out.  I think it's safe to say we have a decent feel for how each person will behave in the draft, and even if someone enters the draft determined to break the mold of his or her auction draft history, behavioral tendencies and personalities will inevitably kick in under the high-stress, adrenaline-rush of the experience known as the auction draft.  So without further ado, a quick historical look + personality analysis.  This could get juicy.


1. Go Big Or Go Home

It is exactly what it sounds like - It's that YOLO, live it up, go big or go home mentality where a manager is willing to spend the big bucks (moniez) on the big bucks (men).

Aaron
Without needing to blink, we all know Aaron owns this category.  He spends essentially all of his money on 3 players, and can no longer afford to spend any more than $5 on any other player afterwards.  Strictly speaking, 2014 was a break from this trend, since he spent all his money on 4 players instead of 3, but that was our first auction draft season:

2014: Jimmy Graham-$54, Dez Bryant-$52, Zac Stacy-$35 (Anyone remebz who dat is??), CJ Spiller-$30 (Total-$171)
2015: Le'Veon-$69, DeMarco-$53, Andrew Luck-$44 (Total-$166)
2016: Antonio Brown-$66, David Johnson-$66, Le'Veon-$50 (Total-$182)
2017: David Johnson-$70, Antonio Brown-$64, Julio Jones-$52 (Total-$186)

How has it played out for Aaron?  Mixed results.  2014 saw Aaron in 11th place, 2015 brought him up to 9th, and then he managed to finish 2nd by the end of the regular season in both 2016 and 2017.  What changed?  Should he not have spent $35 on Zac Stacy in 2014 (but seriously, who is that??), or spent so much on a TE in Jimmy Graham? Should he have not chosen a QB as one of his top 3 in 2015, even though Andrew Luck was on the upswing (He didn't even draft a QB in 2017, and ended up with Kirk Cousins... after dropping Carson Wentz)?  Does he need to spend more than $186 on his top 3 players ($188 is the max you can spend on 3 players, btw)???  Who knows.  But don't be surprised when Aaron blows all his moniez on Le'Veon, Gurley, and Antonio Brown come draft day.  Someone's gotta spend the big bucks.

Andrew 
While Andrew doesn't go all-out on 3 or more players like Aaron does, Andrew goes all out on one player every year, and has been the highest bidder each year for his top player.  $74 was the highest paid amount for any player in 2014, and Andrew dished it out for Jamaal Charles.  In 2015, Andrew landed AP for $69 (tied for highest bid with Le'Veon for $69).  In 2016, $67 was the highest bid, which put Gurley on Andrew's team.  And in 2017, Le'Veon went to Andrew for $78 (highest bid of all-time).  Unlike Aaron, he then supplements the rest of his draft with a combination of role players and young potential.  While it worked out nicely in 2015 (1st) and 2017 (3rd in regular season), in the years when those big picks didn't pan out, he ended up 12th place in 2014 and 11th place in 2016.  I'm honestly just not sure what to make of his draft style, though.  I mean, this was the same guy who drafted Jordy Nelson in 2015 for $38 AFTER he tore his ACL and was out for the season, and STILL won the league that year.

I don't know.


2. Too Rich For My Blood

These managers are the conservative, save-it-for-a-rainy-day, index-funding, never-go-all-in-with-Ace-King-off-suit-because-it-might-look-good-but-it-never-wins type of managers.  When players are going for more than $50, forget about it, because no one is worth a quarter of my budget.

Justina
For the first three years, Justina was at the far end of the spectrum in terms of auction money conservation.  She ended 2014 with $20 unused by the end of the draft, then tried to make up for it in 2015 and 2016 by finishing with no unused money, but only because she spent $35 and $22 on her last picks (Connor Barth and Brock Osweiler, respectively).  2017 saw a change in draft strategy - showing that she could spend moniez when needed, she balanced her spending quite well - and look, she ended up winning the season.

Jeff
Jeff belongs in the "Too Rich For My Blood" group, but has this strange version of "I Want That" mentality (see below, also see Laura) - one that only focuses on potential breakout / sleeper picks.  What he does is saves up his moniez for these sleeper picks, then ends up WAY overspending for them.  Examples?  Cordarrelle Patterson for $19 in 2014; Nelson Agholor for $24 in 2015 (his rookie year); Josh Gordon for $15 in 2016 (who scored zero points that season); and Martavis Bryant for $34 (...yes, $34) in 2017.  Funny thing is, he and I usually have similar players in sight, so we go into this mini-bidding war, which he always wins because his will to obtain these players is greater than mine.  To his credit, he finished the regular season in first place in 2014, but has been mediocre at best ever since then.

Tim

No need to analyze my drafts - they generally stink big ones, and it's almost always because I save up too much moniez to start with, get into dumb mini-bidding wars with Jeff (see Jeff's blurb above), and end up with a bunch of role-playing mediocrity on my team.  I lucked out in 2015 when the Cam and the Panthers decided to be awesome, but I've always scraped through the season to try to get wins - definitely with no help from my drafts.

3. I Want That

Some managers have their eyes set on a player or two and do what they can for those players.  

Eric
I didn't realize this until I started doing research for this post, but Eric has drafted LeSean McCoy in every single auction draft we've done - 4 straight years - starting in 2014.  He has also drafted Russell Wilson 3 straight times, beginning in 2015.  In terms of getting to choose whoever you want as a benefit of the Auction Draft, Eric has taken full advantage of it.  Sometimes I wonder, however, if Eric is stuck in the past, with all the old players he tends to draft (Frank Gore is older than all of us, Marshawn is pretty close).  But when he likes someone, he sticks with them.

The past two seasons haven't been nice to him, seeing as he was Sacko last year, and didn't even make playoffs the year before.  Maybe he needs to get some young bloodz in 2018 to freshen things up a little.  Or just stick with Shady and some other aging players (might I suggest Tshimanga Biakabatuka or Rodney Peete?).

Gabs
What surprises you find with some research.  I thought Gabs's pet player was Devonta Run-like-a-Freeman, or maybe Seattle's Defense, but surprise, surprise - guess who Gabs has drafted for 4 consecutive years?  Eddie Lacy.  I mean, why even play in a keeper league when you can just keep drafting the same players every year?  Amirite Comic Sans?  Gabs is not afraid to spend what he wants on who he wants, either - Eddie Lacy was his top-money-getter for 3 consecutive years ($65 in 2014, $68 in 2015, and $47 in 2016).  Gabs seems to fix his sights on a few players, spending what he wants on them, and then fills in the blanks.  More examples: Devonta Freeman - $39 in 2016, $65 in 2017; Aaron Rodgers - $37 in 2016, $38 in 2017; Seattle Defense for $4 in both 2016 and 2017.  Gabs is a creature of habit.  It won him a championship in 2016

...but also saw him in 10th, 12th, and 10th place in 2017, 2015, and 2014, respectively.

4. Balanced

These managers seem to have the ability to curb their itch to spend big, but also even out their spending between a handful of big names and a good number of "others." 

David
David's draft pattern has been overall rather balanced, minus in 2015 when he spent $67 on Marshawn and essentially ended up with $15 left over (that season ended with him barely making the playoffs in 8th place).  Otherwise, David has done a good job spending some bigger dollars on a few players, while saving enough to get some middle-of-the-road players for middle-of-the-road prices.  It seemed to work well in 2014, when he ended up 2nd in the playoffs.  But the past two seasons have unfortunately seen David stuck in mediocrity (5th in 2016 and 2017, although he came in 3rd last year in the playoffs). 

Luke
To my flawed eye test, Luke's drafts have been pretty balanced throughout the years.  He went a little spend-crazy the first year with $70 on AP, but has gradually mellowed out, making 2017 his most balanced draft to date.  Ezekiel Elliott at $45 and Gurley at $36 were steals, which gave him more than enough money to play with to finish the draft.  Not to mention, 2017 was his most successful season of the 4 - finishing 1st in the regular season, and 2nd in the playoffs (thank you Justina).  I'm not sure what clicked for Luke last season, but if he can find that magic formula again aka his "intel" then he may be able to further extend his dyNASTYc dominance.

5. I Don't Know AKA Miscellaneous

Abraham

Abraham's rankings over the years have gradually been on the decline.  2014 was his best season to date, as he finished 3rd in the regular season, but that showing was followed by 5th, 10th, and 11th places.  I honestly couldn't figure out his drafting style.  Maybe he just likes to spend lots of money on players that end up sucking?  Of course, I mean that in the nicest way possible...  2014 was his best year, and while he got Antonio Brown for $36, he spent $60 on Montee Ball.  The following year saw Abraham spending $55 on a declining Jamaal Charles, followed by $50 on a child-beating Adrian Peterson the next year, capped off with $43 on an Andrew Luck-less TY Hilton last year.  Hindsight is always 50/50

...but he's going to have to make better draft decisions if he doesn't want to (actually) land the Sacko this season.

Laura

To be fair, the sample size is too small to evaluate Laura's drafting habits, but from what I can tell, I'd say she's got a mixed strategy between the conservative folk (me, Justina, Jeff) and the "I Want That" folk (Eric, Gabs) - she's not willing to spend big bucks on the big names, but she has a few targets that she'll be willing to stretch for if she feels like things are getting desperate.  Why else would she dish out $50 for Jay Ajayi?

Revisiting the dyNASTYc rankings

As a follow up to last year's blog post, here are the updated dyNASTYc rankings.

1. Luke [1 - last year's rank]
Adding a 2nd place finish to his 14-year resume of 3 championships further solidifies Luke's dominance in our league.  I hate to admit it, especially since he's been out of the top 3 in the 4 years prior, but Luke will be on the upswing if he carries this momentum into 2018.  Don't forget, this was the guy who won the regular season last year with a killer Gurley + Elliott combo.  As I hope to chronicle in a future blog post, his draft last season ended up being like this:

aka FLAWLESS VICTORY (#Shoutout2005) but also aka... I think he probably cheated.  And also aka Aaron plz draft for him again.  Or aka Yahoo Autodraft aka V.Putin & Co.


2. Gabs [2]
Two championships in four years is an impressive feat, enough to keep him at #2 in the dyNASTYc rankings, but Gabs didn't even make the playoffs last year.  The eye test and recency bias - and his questionable loyalty to certain players that have treated him well in the past (Devonta Run-like-a-Freeman) - would bring him down a notch in my book, but the numbers don't lie.


3. Justina [4]
With another championship under her belt, Justina jumps up in the rankings.  The biggest reason why she didn't climb all the way up to #2 was that her championship back in 2011 was in a 10-team league.  Although 2011 was a tough year to win, with renewed interest in FF at a high after the well-documented Dark Ages of FF, the fact that Gabs won 2 championships in 12-team leagues tips the numbers in his favor.  And to be fair, the questionability of Justina's loyalty to certain players exceeds that of Gabs's (Keenan-Kick-It Allen and less so for DeAndre 1-800-HOPKINS-BLING).

The fact that Justina won last year after BARELY making it into the playoffs as a 6th seed is just as infuriating as it is impressive.  But it also gave her the rights to determine Eric's team name throughout the 2018 season.  Speaking of which...


4. Eric [3]
I think Eric will try to forget last year's debacle of a year and see if he can climb up the dyNASTYc ladder.  His only championship was the inaugural season, and the fact that he's finished 3rd place in 2 of the last 5 seasons gives him a slight edge over Andrew, but being the first official Sacko of FFNUTHANG isn't really how dyNASTYs want to be remembered.  OR THIS

You're welcome, FF NU THANGers, for the specialized Sacko punishment - a combination of two of FF NU THANG's favorite things - A GIF MEME.  As tempting as it may be, try not to watch too many loops of it, though - I can speak from personal experience.  I won't be responsible for any GIF MEME-related sickness.  But to be fair, this is probably how Eric felt all of last season, being 4th overall in points scored, but still ending up with only 3 wins all season.


5. Andrew [5]
Andrew had all the pieces last year to make a run.  I basically gifted him his best RB for the first half of the season (nope, still not over it).

But props to him that he's in the top half after only 4 years in the league.

The best of the rest are below - the teams that have never won a championship.  To them I say, better luck this year.  Especially to #6.

6. Tim [6]
7. Laura [7]
8. David Li [8]
9. Aaron [10]
10. Jeff [11]
11. Abraham [12]
12. Steve [NR]