Are “Good Keepers” the Key to Success? A Data-Driven Retrospective on the 2025-26 Regular Season

With FFNUTHANG’s transition to a keeper league now complete, there’s a growing league-wide appetite to answer one question: does keeper quality determine a team’s destiny?

The end of this year’s regular season felt like as good a time as any to dig into a moderately-detailed quantitative analysis. TLDR: No, “good keepers” don’t make a team; a lack of good keepers doesn’t break a team either.

But onto the analysis.

1. Defining “Good Keepers”

To keep the analysis grounded, we need to define what makes a good keeper. Intuitively, the main way a keeper provides value (i.e., is “good”) is by being drafted at a discounted auction cost and enabling a team to spend money on other players. We can define this advantage as “Keeper Savings”:

• “Keeper Savings” = Projected Auction Cost – Keeper Draft Cost

Note: A keeper could also provide value by outperforming expectations implied by projected auction cost. But first, this is harder to objectively quantify and wouldn’t be known until after the season ended. And second, keepers this year largely UNDERperformed projections based on the difference in pre-season projected player rank v. actual regular season player rank (“Keeper Season Rank Delta”). See the second chart in Section 3 below.

2. Analytical Framework

Based on this assumption, we can start with an initial hypothesis that teams with high Keeper Savings materially outperform those without. Some teams entered the season with significant Keeper Savings advantages, so we would expect to see positive correlations among the following:

• Team Keeper Savings vs. Regular Season Rank
• Team Keeper Savings vs. Points For (Average/Total and Median)

3. Analysis 1: Keeper Savings  vs. Regular Season Rank

The first analysis is straightforward: did teams with higher total Keeper Savings finish higher in the regular season standings? As reflected in the chart below, the short answer is “no.”

There doesn’t appear to be any clear relationship between Keeper Savings and final regular season rankings. The closest we get is by focusing only on the bookends—Gabs had the highest Keeper Savings and ended the season in 1st; Aaron had the lowest Keeper Savings and ended the season as Sacko.

But even with that narrow focus, we should do some deeper inspection. Specifically, did Gabs’s Keeper Savings actually lead to real keeper value? The next chart below suggests “no.” 

While Gabs’s keepers held much pre-season promise, they ended up being the league’s second biggest disappointments in actual regular season production—Bucky Irving got injured and Brian Thomas Jr. couldn’t find QB chemistry.

In other words, good keepers did not consistently lead to more wins.

4. Analysis 2: Keeper Savings vs. Points For

But wins can be noisy based on matchup luck, so we should also look at scoring: did teams with higher total Keeper Savings finish with higher “Points For”? Again, the short answer is “no.”

The first scatterplot compares each team’s average Points For against their respective Keeper Savings—there was no material positive correlation. To control for week-to-week variance and outlier performances, the second scatterplot examines each team’s median Points For. Again, there was no material positive correlation. (The R2 Values for average and median are 0.07 and 0.08, respectively; removing Gabs for the above stated reasons produce negative correlations with R2 values of 0.01 and 0.00).

In other words, teams with good keepers did not reliably outscore others. Offensive output was distributed broadly across the league, independent of Keeper Savings.

5. Conclusion

The data paints a clear picture. While it may feel good to enter a season with good keepers, it didn’t translate into regular season success in our league this year. Winning is more likely driven by the usual factors: draft execution beyond keepers, ongoing roster management, lineup decisions, and of course luck.

**Bonus Content**

Heatmap Table

For those who prefer tabular data formats (and heat mapping), here is another view of the data covered in this post:

A couple of other takeaways based on this view:

• Eric and Aaron had bad matchup luck this season (higher relative Points For than season rank)
• Jeff Lin got relatively wrecked on his keepers compared to projected value

Keeper Data by Player

The above analysis focuses on the aggregate Keeper Savings per team, but I thought people might be interested in how each individual player panned out:

A few takeaways on this:

• It looks like Abraham, Andrew, Jeff Lin, and Eric made gambles that certain keepers would overperform their preseason projected ranks/values--unfortunately none of those players did
• At least for Andrew, he was able to balance that out with the only keeper that outperformed preseason expectations (Jaxon Smith-Njigba)
• All of this is caveated by the fact that Yahoo! is hard to navigate for tracing preseason ranks and actual ranks; I used these preseason ranks and the Yahoo! player rankings as of Week 15 (so a little late)

Week 14 (Final) #PowerRankings - Keeper Projections Edition

Another FFNUTHANG Regular Season in the books. Congrats again to Gabs: the 2025 FFNUTHANG Regular Season Champ! Half of us are looking forward to the next few weeks while the other half start scheming up a plan for next year. And to help us get started, I’ve included Keeper Projections! This will be the last #PowerRankings from me this season, but the blog is open for anyone to post (eagerly waiting for David’s Keeper analysis) - I think I’ve included everyone as an author, but if you can’t access it, let me know (log in to blogger.com with your Google account). Thanks to everyone for another fun season and good luck to no one except me for the playoffs!!!

1. Run It Back! (Gabs) (10-4) [1]

Congrats again to the 2025 FFNUTHANG Regular Season Champion! Gabs had an all-around solid team and his players were able to stay relatively healthy throughout the season. Jonathan Taylor was the star of the season, but with the QB situation in Indy in flux, teams may be able to focus more on stopping Taylor these next few weeks. At least Gabs has the bye week to let things settle (and see CeeDee back on the field) and figure out how to navigate his team to the playoff championship. His Houston D might be the X-factor that wins him the title - they have some juicy matchups. Looking to next season, it’ll be tempting to keep Jonathan Taylor at his $46 value, but something tells me Quinshon Judkins is going to be a bigger value at $4. Gabs may have to decide between proven history or untapped potential. I’m not sure if he has another non-RB player worth keeping at their value, though.

Keeper Projections: Quinshon Judkins ($4)

2. Terrific (Taylor’s Version) (David) (10-4) [2]

David fell short of the Regular Season Champion title by 20 points, but still put together an impressive season. His patience with Rashee Rice definitely paid off, but now with KC’s playoff hopes dwindling, will Rice’s production also taper off come FF playoff time? Can Michael Pittman be relevant without Daniel Jones? Can Jahmyr Gibbs and Jaylen Warren overcome their tough schedules? Where did Tony Pollard come from?? A lot of questions remain unanswered for David heading into the playoffs. In terms of keepers, Rashee Rice at $8 is a no-brainer. It would make sense to lock in a stud RB in Jahmyr Gibbs, but given his $69 cost, Jaylen Warren at $3 might be a consideration?

Keeper Projections: Jahmyr Gibbs ($69), Rashee Rice ($8)

3. #WhiteStackbetterthan#DakStack (Eric) (7-7) [4]

Travis Etienne has played a big role in helping Eric finish the season relatively strong - I wish I traded for him instead of Swift now, a trade Eric was at the time trying to convince me to do instead.. Eric didn’t get the final win of the season against Gabs, but still made his way into the playoffs with the 3rd highest Points For this season - his .500 record makes his team seem deceptively mediocre, but it has the pieces to make a deep playoff run. His RBs are just so good and deep. As for next year, I wouldn’t be surprised if he sticks with Bijan as his keeper, even at $62. Etienne at $4 could be a good value, depending on how he finishes the season. At the other positions, the only other player that stands out at a possibly decent value is Terry McLaurin at $14, but that’s only if he can get back healthy again. In spite of how well he’s done, I doubt Eric will want to keep Herbert at $1.

Keeper Projections: Bijan Robinson ($62)

4. Just Didn’t Catch D’Achane (Haji) (8-6) [3]

Haji’s team imploded in Week 14, but at least CMC is no longer on bye! Haji still has some things to be nervous about, namely Devon Achane’s health and Tyler Warren / Alec Pierce’s likely decrease in production due to Daniel Jones’s injury. With Jayden Daniels still not 100%, Purdy may be the smart play with an easier playoff schedule. But a lot hangs in the balance with Haji’s Indy players. As far as keepers, I think the leading candidates are DeVon Achane at $29 and Tyler Warren at $10. Given how sturdy he’s been this season, CMC at $66 might also be a consideration, but he’s unfortunately only getting older.

Keeper Projections: DeVon Achane $29, Tyler Warren ($10)

5. Spider Pig (Luke) (8-6) [7]

Luke crushed Week 14 (and Abraham) with the #HighScore and catapulting up to 4th in league standings to finish the season. Josh Allen and Puka did all the heavy lifting, but Harold Fannin and even Saquon got some decent numbers in as well. Luke has used his managerial prowess to pull off another playoff berth, and I think his team is set up for success. Picking up Monangai, Fannin, and Corum were all big moves, but I’m hoping that success ends this weekend. As for keepers, Luke has quite a few to choose from. Nacua at $34 would be a natural choice, but one could argue for Olave at $5, Monangai at $5, or even Fannin at $5 depending on how the season ends. I doubt Luke will want to pay up for Saquon again, and even though Josh Allen has been the most productive QB this season, $28 still seems a bit steep.

Keeper Projections: Puka Nacua ($34), Kyle Monangai ($5)

6. Unicorn QueenZ (Tim) (8-6) [5]

Well, that last game doesn’t bode well for my momentum going into the playoffs. At this point, my players either show up or they don’t. I have too many boom-bust players to feel like I have enough consistency to get me to the championship. But we’ll see - I’m hoping for all booms here on out. As for keepers, Trey McBride may start entering into “not worth it” territory after this season, but $22 still seems like a pretty good deal. I traded away the players I really wanted to keep (Tetairoa McMillan and Cam Skattebo), so at this point, keeping Omarion Hampton at the high price of $42 seems like my next best option other than McBride. But that definitely feels like “not worth it territory.”

Keeper Projections: Trey McBride ($22)

7. 第六 (Abraham) (6-8) [6]

I guess starting Doubs wouldn’t have made a difference after all, and Abraham’s team wasn’t able to capitalize on its opportunity to get into the playoffs yet again. I was just looking back to see when Abraham last made the playoffs, and it was in 2022, which is not bad. But he’s been playing in FFNUTHANG for 13 years now, and he’s only made the playoffs twice in that span. Ouch. Aiming for #6 isn’t cutting it, Abraham. At least he’s got some interesting keeper options. Kyren Williams at $27 ought to be a good deal, George Pickens at $18 may be intriguing depending on his situation, Tetairoa McMillan at $21 could be nice, and Cam Skattebo at $3 is a steal. I have a hard time believing Abraham will keep Skattebo over Kyren, even with the price difference, but I know he made the trade with me partly because he really wanted Skattebo, so why make the trade if not to keep him?

Keeper Projections: Tetairoa McMillan ($21), Cam Skattebo ($3)

8. I am not sacko! (Jeff Chen) (6-8) [8]

In spite of Lamar finally providing a decent statline, Jeff Chen still finished the season with a loss and went 1-8 in the last 9 games. As far as keepers, Javonte at $3 is a steal, but James Cook at $30 is a consideration as well. Egbuka’s production has seemed to have fallen off a cliff after a hot start to the season, so TBD on whether the $15 price tag is worth it. My guess is yes, but Jeff seems to favor Nico, so keeping him at $39 makes sense too. A lot will hinge on how the rest of the NFL season plays out.

Keeper Projections: Nico Collins ($39), Javonte Williams ($3)

9. choubacca (Aaron) (4-10) [10]

Aaron ended the season on a hot streak, but it wasn’t enough to keep him out of Sacko. Is Michael Wilson the new WR1 for the Cardinals? Can Christian Watson sustain this kind of production? Both keepers at $5 may not be a bad deal if they continue producing at this clip. But honestly, I don’t think Aaron’s other players are worth keeping. JaMarr at $71, Brock Bowers at $36, Jalen Hurts at $24, and Garrett Wilson at $21 (maybe? Depending on QB situation) all seem like too high of a price.

Keeper Projections: Michael Wilson ($5)

10. chinaballa (Andrew) (6-8) [9]

Andrew’s team fell pretty hard to end the season. The Daniel Jones injury was unfortunate, but his other players didn’t do much to help in his team’s final game (not that it mattered much, anyways). In terms of keepers, it seemed like a pretty obvious JSN at $15 and Drake Maye at $4 until recently. With Woody Marks getting more opportunities, and with his price at $1, it could be a deal too good to pass up for Andrew. We’ll see what he decides, but I have a feeling Woody’s opportunities will continue to go up.

Keeper Projections: Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($15), Woody Marks ($1) 

11. The IR-Relevant Team (Jeff Lin) (6-8) [11]

Jeff Lin ended the season with a respectable 3-game winning streak, but injuries still got the best of his team throughout the season. Who knows what could have been if Malik Nabers had more opportunities with Jaxon Dart this season. At least looking forward, Jeff still has the option to keep Malik at a value at $39. Depending on where Breece Hall ends up, he could also be a value at $21. TreyVeyon Henderson has also shown flashes that he could be worth the $24 value. And who knows, maybe Devin Neal takes over for Kamara and ends up a steal at $5 off the waivers. Jeff has some promising options moving forward.

Keeper Projections: Malik Nabers ($39), Breece Hall ($21)

12. Maybabyboo (Laura) (5-9) [12]

I’m happy for Laura for avoiding Sacko, but her team probably deserved it based on how poorly it played to end the season. Better luck next season. I’m not sure if she has much value at keepers, either. Chase Brown at $20 will likely be a good investment, but I’m not sure who else she has that will be worth keeping. Maybe next year you shouldn’t trust me to draft - if needed, just ask Justina, she seemed to do a better job with Luke’s team.

Keeper Projections: Chase Brown ($20)

Week 13 #PowerRankings - PANTHERS & SUXS Edition

I brought out the PANTHERS & SUXS a little late this season, but I guess better late than never right? As a reminder: PANTHERS = Postseason Analytical NU THANG Happy Endings Real Statistic aka % chance of making playoffs. And SUXS = Sacko Unfortunate eXit Statistic aka % chance of being Sacko. GOOD LUCK TO ALL THOSE WHO NEED IT.

1. Run It Back! (Gabs) (9-4) [2]

Gabs’s team is set up for success in the playoffs. He’s all but secured a 1st round bye with the highest Points For, and is the favorite to win Regular Season Champ, assuming his team performs as expected in Week 14. While TE has been a weak spot for him for much of the season, Gabs snagging Darren Waller from waivers last week may end up being the move that wins him the Playoff championship. The Houston D pickup should pay dividends as well.

PANTHERS %: 100%

SUXS %: 0%

2. Terrific (Taylor’s Version) (David) (9-4) [1]

David’s team has been see-sawing the past month, going from one of the top scorers to one of the lowest scorers every other week. Losing Amon-Ra for who knows how long will be a big blow, and will likely prevent David from winning his 2nd Regular Season Championship in 5 years. Honestly, given the difficult matchups David’s players are facing this week, even the 1st round bye is not fully secure. He’ll need ARSB to return soon to stand a chance at going far in the playoffs, especially given the difficult schedules his main players have in Weeks 16-17.

PANTHERS %: 100%

SUXS %: 0%

3. Just Didn’t Catch D’Achane (Haji) (8-5) [3]

Haji is still in contention for a 1st round bye, but with CMC on bye, it’ll be an uphill battle. Stranger things have happened, but at least if he can’t secure the 1st round bye, the Week 15 matchups are pretty favorable for Haji’s main players. Even into Weeks 16-17, Haji has some manageable matchups as well. If CMC + Achane + Davante can stay healthy, the sky is the limit for Haji. I’m actually very surprised in a season with so many injuries that CMC has stayed healthy with his usage. One of the reasons I was willing to trade CMC away was because I was betting on him getting injured at some point this season, but he’s been an absolute tank.

PANTHERS %: 100%

SUXS %: 0%

4. ToInfinityandBijan! (Eric) (7-6) [4]

Eric has pretty much secured a playoff spot with his high Points For. The only way Eric doesn’t make the playoffs is:

1. Eric loses to Gabs AND either:

1. Abraham beats Luke AND scores 36 more points than Eric AND Jeff Chen beats Aaron AND scores 80 points more than Eric OR

2. Luke beats Abraham AND either Jeff Chen wins AND scores 80 more points than Eric OR Andrew wins and scores 95 more points than Eric

Clear as mud? I mean, while it’s technically possible for Eric to get bumped out of the playoffs, realistically Eric’s PANTHERS % should be 100%. Eric’s team has been somewhat up and down throughout the season, so he’ll need to find some stability going into the playoffs, hopefully from his RB room. If he can make it past the 1st round, I think Week 16 will be a bloodbath for whoever Eric faces: Herbert + Ladd vs. Cowboys and Bijan vs. Arizona should translate to lots of production.

PANTHERS %: 99%

SUXS %: 0%

5. Unicorn QueenZ (Tim) (8-5) [6]

I’m still not completely over my team’s Week 12 loss to Jeff Chen. I think it cost me a potential 1st round bye, which my team desperately needs. If Omarion Hampton can get healthy before the playoffs, I like his chances of being the X-factor that gives me an edge in the postseason. Otherwise, it’s just a hope for the best situation, given the stiff competition out there.

PANTHERS %: 100%

SUXS %: 0%

6. 第六 (Abraham) (6-7) [7]

With a win, Abraham will have enough Points For to beat out Luke for the last playoff spot. This is assuming Jeff Chen or Andrew’s teams don’t score 47 and 70 more points (respectively) than Abraham’s team. Abraham’s key players (Pickens, Love, Kyren) all have favorable matchups. Addison (and the whole Minnesota offense) will be a liability, so Drake London’s health may be the deciding factor with TMac on bye. It’s a tough call, but I’m going to give Abraham the slight nod in this game. This will be the matchup to follow in Week 14.

PANTHERS %: 50%

SUXS %: 0%

7. Spider Pig (Luke) (7-6) [5]

Luke just needs a win and he’ll clinch a playoff spot. Whether that will happen against Abraham is TBD. I think Luke’s chances are really a toss-up. Josh Allen has a favorable matchup vs. Cinci, Puka and Olave have been producing at a high clip, and I’m assuming Luke is starting Washington D against a dilapidated Minnesota offense. But on the flip side, Saquon has been atrocious as of late, Monangai has gotten more opportunities but faces a tough Packers D, and Waddle is up against the Jets D. I’m pretty excited to see what happens here to determine who gets the last playoff spot.

PANTHERS %: 48%

SUXS %: 0%

8. I am not sacko! (Jeff Chen) (6-7) [8]

While Jeff Chen is statistically still in the playoff hunt, he’s realistically only playing to doom Aaron to Sacko. Jeff would need to beat Aaron and score 47 more points than Abraham, PLUS an Abraham victory over Luke to secure a playoff spot. This wouldn’t have sounded unreasonable in Week 4, but Lamar appears to be playing through a lingering injury, which has caused Jeff’s team to plummet. It’s possible James Cook explodes against Cinci, but Jeff will need more than just that to go on a scoring rampage this week. At least I like his chances of beating Aaron, which bodes well for Laura.

PANTHERS %: 2%

SUXS %: 0%

9. chinaballa (Andrew) (6-7) [9]

Similar to Jeff Chen, Andrew still is statistically in the playoff hunt, but has a much smaller chance given his lower Points For. He really needed the win against Eric to keep his playoff hopes alive. I feel like Andrew was inching closer to being the favorite to win that matchup at halftime of the MNF game, but then New England just stopped scoring after that. Andrew has probably all but checked out at this point, given he hasn’t updated his roster to bench his players on bye for Week 14. I don’t see David complaining.

PANTHERS %: 1%

SUXS %: 0%

10. choubacca (Aaron) (3-10) [10]

Aaron pulled out the unlikely win against David to keep his hopes of not being Sacko alive, much thanks to Amon-Ra’s early exit from the Thanksgiving game. It’s very possible Brock Bowers, Ja’Marr Chase, and Jalen Hurts can keep Aaron out of Sacko, but even with a weakened Lamar, I predict Jeff Chen’s team will prevail. I will say, I have been impressed Aaron has still stayed engaged throughout the season given how ugly his team looked at the beginning of the season. Aaron was able to capitalize on some injuries and opportunities to find some hidden gems and stayed active enough on waivers to cash in on players like Rico Dowdle, Kareem Hunt, Kenneth Gainwell, and Michael Wilson - at least to give him enough Points For to give him a glimmer of hope with one game left in the season.

PANTHERS %: 0%

SUXS %: 53%

11. The IR-Relevant Team (Jeff Lin) (5-8) [11]

Jeff Lin is just playing for pride at this point, with a 0% PANTHERS and 0% SUXS. It was a rough year for Jeff, and even his FF prowess could not save him from the injuries and mishaps his team faced this season. At least his smack talk / engagement was still active, so A+ for entertainment value.

PANTHERS %: 0%

SUXS %: 0%

12. Maybabyboo (Laura) (4-9) [12]

I really do think the Jacoby Brissett / Bhayshul Tuten trade between Laura and Haji will be what keeps Laura out of Sacko this year. Jacoby will be up against a tough LA Rams D, but he’s been on a tear, and the Rams secondary was embarrassed by Bryce Young last week. Chase Brown has been playing well, and Allgeier is primed to vulture a TD at any point in the game. Jayden Higgins has been a Flex-worthy player, and I believe Justin Jefferson will get more targets and will inevitably do better this week. I think those 5 players (plus CMC on bye) will be just enough to earn Laura a Week 14 win. Confession time: I feel partially responsible for how bad Laura’s team has done this season because I helped her draft her team. While I tried really hard to land her James Cook since she had him last year, I clearly didn’t try hard enough (Jeff’s ridiculous draft money hoarding habit / scheme actually worked this time), my gamble on the JJ McCarthy + Justin Jefferson stack fell flat on its face, and I thought Chuba and Zay Flowers would be much better than they actually were. So now as an act of penance, I am speaking a Sacko-less season into existence for her. Amen.

PANTHERS %: 0%

SUXS %: 47%