Season Predictions, Part One

This year, your resident pig has decided to do season ending predictions again. This year's algorithm goes as follows:

1. Ratings by position (QB, WR, RB, TE, Other) weighted based on a 100 point scale goes as follows:
   QB - 23%
   RB - 30%
   WR - 30%
   TE - 10%
   Other - 7%
2. Risk: typically injury risk of your superstars or role players. Goes from 0 to -4 and adds onto weighted score
3. Upside: Ceiling of yo sleepahz. Goes from 0 to 3 and adds onto weighted score
4. Mgr: Managerial ability based on historic performance and adds onto weighted score

The idea here is that your base team (how well you drafted) only takes you so far. There's always a risk that your superstar(s) will flop/get injured or your sleepers pan out (aka RGIII or Doug Martin last year). Good managers find a way to succeed throughout the season through the waiver wire or using smart trades. Final weighted score determines your rank. There are also some comments from yours truly.

So, without further ado, here are the bottom four finishers for our league this year!

9th and 10th place

11th and 12th place

 (You're welcome for the new charts, Justina).

To a good year. Sincerely, pig. 

Pre-season Power Rankings

Uh oh, Fantasy Football has begun.  And so the endless blogging begins until December...  I hope you guys are up for it.

1. The Pain Train

QB - Robert Griffin III, Philip Rivers
WR - Julio Jones, Reggie Wayne, James Jones, Justin Blackmon, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Kenbrell Thompkins
RB - LeSean McCoy, Frank Gore, Eddie Lacy, Roy Helu
TE - Jermichael Finley
K - Stephen Gostkowski
DEF - Chicago

Gabs starts the season with a strong team.  On paper.  If they can stay unhurt.  Big, big if.  Like I mentioned before, McCoy burned me last season with his injury, and I eventually dumped him off to Eric, luckily.  Frank Gore?  He was old a long time ago.  He's just waiting to break.  Gabs evidently planned for this by picking up Eddie Lacy, but that's a big question mark as well.  Reggie Wayne?  Old.  RGIII?  Who knows how his knee will recover.  But, as of right now, Gabs has a strong team.  He's got a strong set of WRs, and one of the stronger RB duos in our league.  They just have to keep it together and avoid the injury bug, and Gabs could go places this season.


2. E-San's Nifty Team

QB - Michael Vick, Tony Romo
WR - Dwayne Bowe, Mike Wallace, Stevie Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins
RB - Doug Martin, Reggie Bush, Le'Veon Bell, Fred Jackson, Shonn Greene
TE - Antonio Gates
K - David Akers
DEF - Cincinnati, Baltimore

I'm sticking with my prediction as Eric being a favorite this season.  While his QB and WRs are weaker than Gabs's, he's got a nice duo of RBs - probably the best RBs to start in our league right now - but the rest of them are looking iffy, especially now with Le'Veon Bell injured.  His WRs hold promise, but with all of them teaming up with new QBs, it's hard to know how that will play out.  I tend to think of the 4 WRs he has, at least 2 of them will be reliable, which is all you can ask for in a 3-WR, 12-team league.  Can Vick be the Vick that he used to be?  I'm going to go with yes.  Because we all know Eric doesn't want to be starting Tony Romo on a regular basis.  Or at all, really.


3. Choux AKA Sweet Buns

QB - Russell Wilson, Carson Palmer
WR - Victor Cruz, Eric Decker, Mike Williams, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright
RB - Arian Foster, Rashard Mendenhall, Chris Ivory, Mark Ingram
TE - Jimmy Graham, Martellus Bennett
K - Robbie Gould
DEF - St. Louis

Drafting from the beach, Aaron manages to put together a pretty good squad.  Sure, he reached for Russell Wilson pretty early, but I think Russell will be eventually prove to be worth it this season.  Aaron's got the best TE in Graham, one of the best RBs in Foster, and some WRs who are hard to complain about in Cruz and Decker.  It looks like Mendenhall may start come week 1, but Aaron might be sweating bullets if he has to reach to his bench for RBs.  We shall see.  Aaron has a way of working the system so he gets all the ridiculous waiver wire picks.  Don't ask me how he does it, but if he can pull it off again this season, it'll definitely play to his favor.


4. Terrific Tortoises

QB - Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger
WR - Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, DeSean Jackson, Miles Austin, Rod Streater
RB - Stevan Ridley, Lamar Miller, BenJarvus Green-Ellis
TE - Owen Daniels, Jordan Cameron
K - Phil Dawson
DEF - Denver, Green Bay

I was pretty impressed with David's picks this season.  Starting it off on a good foot by picking up Calvin Johnson, he was able to supplement his WR corps with Roddy White (who may not end up being so great, but still not bad) and DeSean Jackson (whose success or failure may depend on Vick, but still not bad).  I'd say a healthy Miles Austin can do some damage as well.  Best starting WRs in our league?  Yeah, I'll buy that.  He's got a reliable QB, but the big question marks will be at RB.  Stevan Ridley should be ok.. maybe.  But Lamar Miller?  BenJarvus Green-Ellis?  One is a rookie on a team that kind of sucks, and the other is an old RB who will most likely get out-played by a Tarheel named Gio.  But hey, at least he didn't pick Jimmy Graham and Chris Johnson as his Round 1 and 2 picks this season.  Go, David - I'm rooting for you.


5. Unicorn Burps

QB - Aaron Rodgers, Matt Schaub
WR - Demaryius Thomas, Antonio Brown, Anquan Boldin, Lance Moore, Sidney Rice
RB - Alfred Morris, DeMarco Murray, Ahmad Bradshaw, Christine Michael
TE - Jermaine Gresham, Julius Thomas
K - Josh Brown
DEF - New England

David sticks with his best bud, Mr. Rodgers, who will probably have another productive year.  He also managed to pick up a pretty decent set of WRs, but fails to put together anything resembling a RB duo that would intimidate.  Maybe I have bitter feelings from how DeMarco disappointed me last year, but let's just say I wouldn't want him starting on my team.  Overall, though, I don't think David can complain too much about how his draft - he's got a good base of players to work with.


6. Spider Pig

QB - Matt Ryan, Alex Smith
WR - Larry Fitzgerald, Tavon Austin, Golden Tate, Torrey Smith, Greg Little, Brandon Lafell
RB - Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson, Giovani Bernard, Bryce Brown, LaMichael James
TE - Vernon Davis
K -
DEF - Houston

Luke is banking on some RBs to go down or kicked out this season (Law Firm - probable, Shady - probable, Frank Gore - probable, but James probably wouldn't replace him at this point), because his starting RBs are going to go down (Charles - possible-to-probable) or fall flat (Chris Johnson - yes).  A good strategy?  Sure.  A sustainable strategy?  Possibly.  A strategy that will be free of stress?  He wishes.  But when is fantasy football not stressful?  Never.  Especially when you're out to defend your title.  I think this year will prove whether Luke has the managerial umph needed to repeat and potentially set himself for a three-peat (sorry, I'm getting ahead of myself now).  Right now, his team is pretty average.  He's got a good QB, a questionable group of RBs, and a waiting-to-blow-up-or-bust set of WRs (Austin is a rookie, Tate, Little, and Lafell have yet to prove themselves, in spite of the hype that surrounds them).  For now, this seems like a good spot for the defending champ.  For now.

7. Pinchers of Peril

QB - Andrew Luck, Andy Dalton
WR - Brandon Marshall, Randall Cobb, Hakeem Nicks, Cecil Shorts, Aaron Dobson
RB - C.J. Spiller, David Wilson, Daryl Richardson, Shane Vereen
TE - Brandon Myers, Rob Housler
K - Dan Bailey
DEF - Pittsburgh

I went the WR route this year, not wanting to be sorely disappointed when I draft 2 RBs in the first 2 rounds and they both end up disappointing.  Spread my eggs.  To be honest, I'm not too thrilled with my team.  We'll just see how it goes.  I'm predicting RBs woes again, with probable WR woes as well as QB woes.  I just can't win, can I?  Even with the name change...

8. Seenie J

QB - Cam Newton, Joe Flacco
WR - Pierre Garcon, Steve Smith, Greg Jennings, Brian Hartline, Andre Roberts
RB - Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Ronnie Hillman
TE - Tony Gonzalez, Fred Davis
K - Matt Bryant
DEF - San Francisco, Tampa Bay

Poor Jeff, evidently forgot about the draft.  Yahoo ends up drafting for him, but lo and behold, he does not end up with the worst team in our league.  It helps that he already started out with Adrian Peterson.  But ok, even from there, Forte isn't a terrible RB2.  Cam is a question mark, but he's proved himself to be a worthy starting QB the last two years.  Jeff's got a good defense, a pretty good TE, but.. oh, WRs... so sad.  Pierre Garcon - lives and dies by RGIII's knee.  Steve Smith - hasn't been the explosive WR I once knew him to be.  Greg Jennings - no Rodgers = no success.  Brian Hartline, Andre Roberts - must I continue?  WR will be his Achilles heel this season.  He can overcome it, he just won't be able to rely on Yahoo to do it for him.


9. Charlotte Hornets

QB - Matthew Stafford
WR - Dez Bryant, Andre Johnson, Wes Welker, Emmanuel Sanders, Rueben Randle
RB - Trent Richardson, Darren McFadden, Darren Sproles, DeAngelo Williams, Bernard Pierce, Isaiah Pead, Pierre Thomas
TE - Kyle Rudolph
K - Justin Tucker
DEF -

Looks like Abraham took a page out of Justina's book, but instead with RBs.  It may be a smarter move in his case, though, seeing as how he has Trent Richardson and Darren McFadden starting... and Darren Sproles and DeAngelo backing them up.  His lone bright spot is at WR, where he's got some big names (Dez Bryant, Andre Johnson, Wes Welker) as well as some potential breakouts (Emmanuel Sanders, Rueben Randle.. especially if Nicks gets hurt again).


10. Password is Taco

QB - Colin Kaepernick, Sam Bradford, Eli Manning
WR - Vincent Jackson, Jordy Nelson, Josh Gordon, Malcom Floyd
RB - Marshawn Lynch, Steven Jackson, Andre Brown
TE - Greg Olsen, Jared Cook
K - Blair Walsh
DEF - Arizona, New York Giants

I wonder if Justina has enough QBs.  She might need a 4th, just in case.  I'm not sure what happened with her draft this year - was she even present? - but Justina's team is looking a little sad right now.  I don't really know where to start.  All those QBs... I don't even know where to start.  Marshawn is the only player I really like on her team.  Oh, and Greg Olsen.  But that's only because he's a Panther.


11. You've Changed Bro

QB - Peyton Manning
WR - A.J. Green, Kenny Britt, Ryan Broyles, Denarius Moore, Vincent Brown, Percy Harvin
RB - Ray Rice, Ryan Mathews, Jonathan Stewart, Jonathan Dwyer
TE - Rob Gronkowski, Zach Sudfeld
K - Sebastian Janikowski
DEF - Minnesota

Duke decides to go the "old and falling apart" route in his inaugural season.  Ok, let's see... Peyton Manning - old (but good... but old), A.J. Green - hurt, Kenny Britt - previously hurt, Ryan Broyles - previously hurt, Percy Harvin - hurt, Jonathan Stewart - hurt, Rob Gronkowski - hurt, etc. etc.  At full steam, his team could be dangerous.  Right now, they're just.. old and falling apart.


12. Jen Wong's Team


QB - Drew Brees
WR - Marques Colston, Danny Amendola, T.Y. Hilton, Chris Givens, Alshon Jeffery
RB - Maurice Jones-Drew, Montee Ball, Ben Tate, Danny Woodhead, Vick Ballard, Knowshon Moreno
TE - Jason Witten
K - Matt Prater
DEF - Seattle

Poor Jen.  Asked her to join the league and now she's at the bottom.  Call it initiation.  David Li had to go through it, right?  And look where he's at now.. 3 seasons later.  :)  But I think picking Brees in the first round may end up biting Jen in the rear, because now she's stuck with MJD (who isn't a terrible option for RB if he can stay healthy), and Montee Ball (not even sure if he's starting yet) as starting RBs; Colston (too inconsistent, too many highs and lows), Amendola (will it work out with Brady?), and T.Y. Hilton (could be her most consistent WR, sadly) as starters.  Granted, she has some sleepers on her team (Givens, Jeffery, Tate if Foster gets hurt, Woodhead if Mathews goes down), but sleepers are called sleepers for a reason.  Hey, at least she's got a good Defense.

Draft Round 1 Analysis

With less than a week left before our actual draft occurs, I decided to give you all some fodder to chew before the fun begins.  It's unfair to judge or rate how good the first round picks were, because the rest of the draft is important in providing context for first round picks.  Plus, some managers got an advantage, depending on who they kept.  However, I will still provide my commentary, seeing as how some people find pleasure in doing anything except work.  At work.  (As I write this at work.)

Password is Taco - Marshawn Lynch
Classic pick-stealing here.  Now that I'm in Seattle, I was eyeing Marshawn, hoping Justina would go the CJ2K route - he carried her to victory two years ago, right?  Why would you want one of the ugliest guys in the NFL on your team anyway?  Isn't that why they call him Beast Mode - because he looks like The Beast (from Beauty And or X-men - take your pick)?  But alas, Justina took the (in my opinion, at this stage in the draft) smart route and stuck with Skittles.  I can't blame her.

Seenie J - Adrian Peterson (Keeper)
Must I compliment Jeff more?  No, thanks.

Pinchers of Peril - C.J. Spiller
I'm not 100% sold on my pick, and probably for good reason.  By this point in the draft, RBs start to have large asterisks after their names.  Duke recommended (in a possibly inebriated state) that I pick up LeSean McCoy, but after my experience with Shady last year, I ultimately decided to pass.  LeSean may have a killer year while C.J. disappoints, but I'd rather take that risk than have McCoy for a third year and be disappointed again.  For some reason, it hurts me more when I'm loyal to a player and am disappointed by him rather than if I have no previous connection and am disappointed.  Call it sentimental.

The Pain Train - LeSean McCoy
Gabs takes the risk I'm not willing to take.  Time will tell whether it pays off.  Funny thing is, Gabs and I essentially swap players from last year.  The not so funny thing is, Shady was my 1st round pick last year.  C.J. Spiller?  11th round for Gabs.  I lose no matter how you spin it.

David's Team - Calvin Johnson
As Luke mentioned, this might be David's best 1st round pick since he joined our league two seasons ago.  With RBs like Alfred Morris and Trent Richardson left, it was smart of him to pick up the #1 WR in the draft.  Now it's a matter of how the rest of his draft pans out.  Who will he choose as supporting cast for his WR squad?  Who will his starting RBs be?  Question marks that he'll have to eventually answer.  But suffice it to say that David has started the draft off on a good foot, in my opinion.  But now that both Luke and I have acknowledged it, he's jinxed for the season.  Sorry, David.

Choux AKA Sweet Buns - Arian Foster (Keeper)
Arian Foster is one of those that could carry Aaron's team to a championship, or could totally wreck his team.  Aaron had no choice but to keep him, though.  And if he spends the amount of time on his team this year as he did last (at least the first half of last year), then I'm sure he'll be fine.

E-San's Nifty Team - Doug Martin ( Keeper)
While E-San's Nifty Team doesn't sound as intimidating as MUSCLE HAMSTER, I guess all Eric needs is the Hamster (who hates the name, by the way) on his team to get the job done, fancy name or not.  I'm a believer that Martin will continue to perform at a high level for Eric, and even though it's only the first round, Eric's team is already one of my favorites to do well this season, coming off the crazy momentum he had from last season.  It may seem irrational, but if you can give me an example of any of my posts that have actually been rational, I'll take take back what I wrote about Eric's team.  Then you'll have to take things up with Eric.

David's Team2 - Alfred Morris
At this point, what could he do?  I think Morris is a bit of a gamble, but it's hard to confidently say there's an RB out there at this point in the draft that doesn't have some sort of associated risk.  I'm a fan of Alfred Morris.  I think he'll do well, especially if RGIII can stay healthy and spread out defenses to open up running lanes.  Shanahan has been known for rotating RBs all the time, but if Morris can prove himself to be consistent, I see no reason to doubt his ability to perform.

Spider Pig - Jamaal Charles (Keeper)
As I mentioned in a previous post, I support Luke's decision to keep Jamaal Charles.  However, he could be in some deep doo doo if Charles can't stay away from injury.  That sux.

Duke's Dazzling Team - Ray Rice (Keeper from Abraham)
Seeing as how he had little chance of picking up a more reliable RB by his last-pick spot, Duke made a wise decision to obtain Rice.  While I'm not convinced he objectively came out on top over Abraham in the trade, I think I would personally rather be Duke in this case than Abraham.  Sure, he'll lose some ground by not being able to pick in Round 3, but at least he's got a solid RB1 - it'll be interesting to see who Duke picks to support him.  With the next pick in the draft, I'd say he has a pretty good list of options.

Jen Wong's Team - Drew Brees
Bold pick by Jen.  I'm not sure if this is a result of her relative lack of experience in fantasy football (no offense intended), or if she's got something up her sleeve that I don't know about.  I'll give her the benefit of the doubt and go with the latter.  I can't blame her for not trying to pick up a so-so RB and instead going for an elite QB.  So I'm intrigued to see how the rest of her draft plays out.  Dark horse candidate, anyone?

Charlotte Hornets - Trent Richardson (From Duke)
After giving up Ray Rice, Abraham settles for Richardson.  Depending on who he picks up in Round 3, and how Richardson's season plays out, Abraham could end up making bank in this trade.  I'm hopeful.  Reservedly hopeful, but hopeful.

Trying to understand how this year's draft is set up

A Brief History of Nearly Everything - A NU START

Pre-2005
The OF's (original fantasizers) spent the inaugural years figuring out how to play fantasy football while hoping Jake Delhomme could lead the Panthers back to the Superbowl. Who was EliteFobVicTURD?

2005-2006 - Keepers and a Plaque
2005 was the first year our league instituted keepers (could keep up to 3 players) and also had a live draft. There was also a plaque involved that Mike Wilson took in 2006 and never relinquished.

Other Highlights
- Fueled by fantasy hubris, Luke felt good going into 2006, but caught "the dreids" and went from first to last
- 2005 was fantasy founder and commissioner, Tim Chang's best year. Like the Panthers, he's found it difficult to replicate that success in subsequent years
- The league finally figured out what "gnateinnoc" meant in time for Gabs to change his team name to rawrasaur
- Justina and Aaron join the league

2007 - Crapinator year
I don't actually remember anything about this year

Other Highlights
- Fueled by his innate hubris, Aaron declares that he knows all the draft steals. He also asserted that Ricky Williams played for the Green Bay Packers

2008-2010 - Fantasy dark ages
Most of the league was in/out of college in these years, resulting in some churn in the league... even the commish himself took a year off. David Lin capitalizes on this and rules the league with back-to-back championships... the only manager to ever repeat.

Other Highlights
- King Joffrey finally comes out of the fantasy closet in 2010 and dubs his team "The Rainbow Warriors"
- In 2009, Laura gets married and cleverly comes up with "Mrs Jones" as her team name.
- Who was Khoa and why did he dominate our league in these years?

2011-2012 - Age of Pig
The perfect storm brews across the league, resulting in a renewed interest in fantasy football. This is the age of the FFNUTHANG blog and pig analytics. Power rankings and weekly predictions became the norm as trash talk became a norm in the league. This is also when trade meddling took off, which coincides with Aaron's return to the league in 2011

Other Highlights
- The league welcomes David Li in 2011
- Justina finally wins the league in 2011 becoming the first female winner
- Keepers are reintroduced after a 7 year break in 2012

2013 - A NU START
We bid adieu to another OF (Laura) and welcome 3 new players to the league. Along with these changes come with lots of new questions:

- How will Tim's complicated keeper system work in 2013?
- Will Abraham, Duke, or Jen continue the long tradition of trash talking via the blog?
- Are haters really going to hate?

With that said, here are a few charts showing managerial performance over the years...

- For this analysis, I've analyzed our team names over the years and scored them on a scale of 1-to-awesome. The criteria are below:

• clever names with pop references score well (Kardashian Esk Bros)
• name is intrinsically competitive/instills fear (like rawrasaur)
• Reasoning: do you want to be the "Browns" or the "Panthers"?
• if I didn't understand the name.. low score (The Debbinator, Rokquewars)

And for J, here's a chart. Red bar is team name score (higher is better) and blue line is average placement (lower is better)

Keeper Selections

Acting upon a sudden desire to be kind, I have decided to let you in on my secret garden of fantasy football insight and knowledge.  I have decided to place myself in each manager's shoes and offer advice on what I would do if I were them.  I will call it: "What would Tim do?" Keeper Selection Edition.

I will warn you, however, that this is advice coming from the manager who placed 7th in the league last season, had the 2nd lowest point total for the season, and was ranked dead last in the season's final power rankings.  For some twisted reason, however, I still believe what I write will affect your decision, in spite of my obvious lack of credentials.  I guess that's what most blogging consists of.

I will also mention that I have decided to change my team name.  O'doyle has faithfully lasted me all of 9 seasons, but never was able to win me a championship - in the regular season or playoffs.  Inspired by the Hornets-turned-Bobcats-turned-Hornets-again, I have decided it's time for change.  To get my creative juices flowing, I went to Google and searched "Best Fantasy Football Team Names."  Here are the ones I found amusing:
1. Red Hot Julius Peppers
2. Forgetting Brandon Marshall
3. Belicheck Yourself Before You Rex Yourself
4. RG-3PO

I then thought of names just off the top of my head, and here are some I came up with:
1. I Like To Rock The Party
2. Mr. Narwhal
3. Derelicte
4. Ballers
5. Shot Callers
6. Peanut Butter Happiness Forever
7. Madphatbootyliciousfreakazoid

But after much consideration, I have decided on the perfect blend of intimidating yet fun, all the while embodying what I find to be the essence of Tim.  So ladies and gentlemen, I present to you my new team name: Pinchers of Peril.

But I digress.  In a few weeks, teams will be deciding on their keepers for the 2013-2014 NFL Fantasy Football season.  Since this process can be intimidating, I hope to provide some solace through giving you all my advice on what I would do if I were you.  So here it goes.

Hornets - Ray Rice
Now that we've changed the rules a little, Abraham is at a slight disadvantage.  If he goes with Rice, he's guaranteed a decent RB in the 1st round.  If not, he gets bumped down to 10th pick, where Rice may not even still be on the board.  It'll be a tough decision, but if I were him, I'd stick with Rice, considering that as a #10 overall pick, that's a pretty decent bargain.  By the way, another team name I saw was "Rice Rice Baby" but I suppose that could be confused with Sidney.  Or Jerry.  Oh, and speaking of Laura's old team: "Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe."  HA.

Kardashian Esk. Bros - Pass
Far from the clear dominance her team embodied the previous season, 2012-13 proved to be one of many struggles for Justina's team.  In my opinion, her closest thing to a keeper would be A.J. Green.  But is he worth the reach?  Especially now that she's pretty much guaranteed the first pick?  I would say no.  My gut tells me there will be better WRs available when she's up to pick in the first round, and even if she wants to go the RB or QB route, she'll have a better selection to choose from than what Green has to offer.

Sinni J - Adrian Peterson
Can we all say no-brainer here?  Jeff would be pretty much giving up the consensus #1 overall pick if he decided not to keep Peterson.  I'm more confused about his name change - can someone explain this to me?

Pinchers of Peril (previously known as odoyle RULES) - Pass
It's sad when the best keeper you have is Stevan Ridley.  Maybe I'm not giving him enough credit - he'd probably be considered an early-to-mid 2nd round pick in a 10-team league.  But still, it was time for the name change.  It was definitely time.

THE Pain Train - C.J. Spiller
This one was tough, because if Gabs believes that C.J. won't get in to the injury trouble he had to go through last year, this would be an easier choice.  However, I could understand if Gabs wanted to rid himself of Spiller in hopes of picking up a better RB that might still be on the board by this point.  With that said, if I were Gabs, I would keep C.J.  The combination of not knowing who will be available at this point (even though I'm sure it'll be a decent selection) and the fact that C.J. is a projected #6 or #7 RB makes me want to play it safe and keep him.

Terrific Tortoises - Pass 
With Jimmy Graham as his most worthy potential keeper, I would recommend that David pass him up and save the torture of making that same mistake again.  Sure, he is the best TE out there.  But I'm still of the belief that RBs, and even elite WRs, are hard enough to come by that you can let someone else pick up a TE earlier on and settle with a Dennis Pitta or a Greg Olsen.  Like I said, that's just me.

choubacca - Arian Foster
Another seemingly no-brainer, especially since if he passed, Aaron would most likely be looking at some slim pickings at the RB spot by this point.  Thank goodness he can't keep more than one player.  Victory point for quasi-fantasy-football-communism.

MUSCLE Hamster - Doug Martin
Eric has no choice.  He must keep Martin in order to keep his name.  Especially since Martin was such a workhorse for him late in the season last year.  I'm already calling it - Eric is a contender for the championship in 2013-14.  Why?  Because of his name, DUH.  It's so... scary.  And intimidating.  Have we not learned anything about the power of team names by this point in the post?

The Debbinator - Aaron Hernandez
Just kidding.  Or am I?  Dark horse pick right here, baby.  Ok, but in all seriousness, I'd argue that Brees is David's best bet as a keeper, and even though he's considered a #1 QB by some, I was never a huge fan of picking a QB so early in the draft.  Maybe it's my old-school-get-your-RBs-early mentality that has been killing me all these years.  I'm just of the mindset that decent QBs will still be available by rounds 4, 5, 6 that you can rely on throughout the season.  And there will be one or two break-out QBs that if you're lucky enough, you can reach for in rounds 7, 8, and 9 and still be better off (RGIII of last season, Cam Newton of the season prior, Matthew Stafford a few seasons back, Aaron Rodgers way back).

Spider Pig - Jamaal Charles
I told Luke he should keep Marshawn.  But the more I've looked in to it, the more I would probably go with Jamaal Charles.  Luke is probably aware of all the reasons why, so I won't go in to detail.  I will say though, that if Luke can pull off a repeat this season, I will be very impressed, and he will be deserving of much dap and props.  Why?  BECAUSE THE PINCHERS OF PERIL ARE COMING FOR YOU, PIGGY.

Keeper Analysis

As a teaser for our new season, yours truly is paying 20% attention to his work call to bring you this year's "keeper ape index" analysis. The logic goes as follows:

- Calculate each manager's actual draft position
- Speculate on what each manager's likely keeper is
- Reference some online mock drafts to calculate the draft value of each keeper
- Calculate the variance

And without further ado...

Red - time to flex those management skills
Yellow - manageable situation
Green - things are looking grood

What can we take from this analysis? It's that David has a great chance to flex his management muscles and King Joffrey might actually have a good year! Obviously this is just speculation with the first round and we all know that fantasy championships are won with savvy drafting in later rounds and the occasional advantageous trade.

Hope everyone is having a great summer.