Friday, August 29, 2014

Joique Bell vs. Kelvin Benjamin

The trade between David Li and Justina ends up going through.  In case no one has been following, David gives up Joique Bell to Justina for Kelvin Benjamin.  Who comes out with the better deal in this one?  Let's work it out.

Joique Bell


What Justina gains: An RB who is supposed to split time with Reggie Bush on what will probably be a pass-happy-playing-from-behind Lions team.  But considering the fact that her RB2 is Lamar Miller behind RB1 DeMarco Murray, Bell could easily replace Miller as an RB2, which provides Justina with immediate impact.
What David loses: A backup RB that he may or may not even need to play due to his starters and rest of his bench, even though it does not look to be super reliable (Chris Johnson, Knowshon Moreno).

Kelvin Benjamin


What David gains: A rookie WR, with amazing potential, who will be the primary wide-out for a Pro-Bowl QB.  Benjamin will surely ride David's bench for a while, at least until one of the three injury-prone WRs on David's team gets hurt (Julio Jones, Andre Johnson, Percy Harvin).  I'm thinking David took this route as insurance at the WR position, seeing as how Sammy Watkins is his only other WR.
What Justina loses: A potential breakout WR, but since her bench is so crowded with WRs that she could potentially start over Benjamin (Anquan Boldin, Golden Tate, Kenny Britt... sike), she's not losing way too much.

Who wins? 
It's kind of a draw in my mind.  I mean, just look at their photos - don't they look like the same person?  Or at least brothers?  Wait, was that racist?  #stuffwhitepeoplesay

But seriously, Bell gives Justina an advantage in the short term because it provides her with some more wiggle wiggle wiggle room at RB.  But in the long-run, I'm thinking David will benefit more with KB, simply because one of his WRs are bound to fall apart, and I'm big on KB doing well this year.  I'm sure David is hoping the same thing.  If I had to choose, I'd say David wins.

I actually think that this trade was conceived on draft day.  As I recall, David outbid Justina for Joique Bell by getting kicked out of the draft room and auto-draft (and its stupid self) took over.  At which point I conjecture that Justina agreed to later pick up Kelvin Benjamin (and outbid me in the process... still somewhat bitter over it) for David as a future trade.  Or Justina could have just straight bullied me for her own pleasure.  *Sigh*

Thursday, August 28, 2014

Pre-Season Rankings (With Draft Analysis) - Part 3

And finally, ranking #1-#4.  Let the arguing begin.

1. Unicorn Burps

QB - Tom Brady $4, Johnny Manziel $1 - Grade: B
RB - Marshawn Lynch $57, Rashad Jennings $18, Ahmad Bradshaw $1, Jonathan Stewart $1 - Grade: B-
WR - Brandon Marshall $46, A.J. Green $51, Jeremy Maclin $8, Hakeem Nicks $4, DeAndre Hopkins $4 - Grade: A+
TE - Charles Clay $1, Coby Fleener $1 - Grade: C
K - Stephen Gostkowski $1 - Grade: B+
DEF - Cincinnati $1 - Grade: B
Intangibles - Grade: A
Unused $1

The new commissioner manages to put together a pretty formidable team in spite of some hiccups in his drafting (Johnny Football?).  Putting most of his money on Marshawn and two great WRs could have screwed him up in the latter part of the draft, but he won big-time with his first QB pick:
His RBs and TE are probably his weakest positions, but if Marshawn can manage to stay healthy and Rashad can turn around the Giants historically bad running game, David could be easily prancing to the championship.  His WR combo of Brandon Marshall and A.J. Green is sick, and given his ability to waiver-hunt and his even-more-vested-interest in the league as a commish (hence, an A for intangibles), I think David Lin's team is the team to beat right now.

2. GHOTEM

QB - Russell Wilson $6, Robert Griffin III $4 - Grade: B-
RB - Jamaal Charles $74, Frank Gore $22, Trent Richardson $9, Danny Woodhead $1 - Grade: A-
WR - Pierre Garcon $21, Reggie Wayne $10, Julian Edelman $9, Michael Floyd $11, T.Y. Hilton $9 - Grade: B
TE - Jordan Cameron $10, Jason Witten $4 - Grade: B+
K - Matt Prater $3 - Grade: A
DEF - Seattle (Sea - DEF) $7 - Grade: A
Intangibles - Grade: A-
Unused $0

It turns out Andrew really did want Jamaal Charles, as he was willing to shell out the most money for any player in this draft:
That's a whole 37% of his budget.  For one player.  Not long afterwards, he reached for Frank Gore as well:
The question is if this will actually pay off.  I think Jamaal Charles will, but am not convinced Gore will be a sufficient RB2.  Andrew was able to turn things around by just filling up his roster as quickly as possible with serviceable deals:
Some of his pickups were questionable (Frank Gore for $22, Reggie Wayne for $10, Jordan Cameron for $10, Seattle Defense for $7, Trent Richardson for $9 - which was kind of a fluke), but he had some good pickups as well (Michael Floyd, Julian Edelman, T.Y. Hilton, Russell Wilson, Jason Witten).  The point was that he put people on his team that he actually wanted, and didn't ridiculously overpay for many of them.  Therefore, those questionable pickups, when viewed in the bigger-picture, didn't overshadow the good pickups.
His team, however, looks fragile.  He lacks true depth at RB, and he has no superstar WR to carry the load.  But as a rookie manager in our league, I think Andrew knows more than we might think he does, and he's got something to prove.  So we'll see

3. The Pain Train

QB - Drew Brees $42 - Grade: A
RB - Eddie Lacy $65, Doug Martin $22, Ronnie Hillman $1 - Grade: A-
WR - Mike Wallace $10, Marques Colston $14, Riley Cooper $5, Stevie Johnson $1, Jermaine Kearse $1, Marvin Jones $2, Eddie Royal $1 - Grade: C+
TE - Julius Thomas $26 - Grade: A
K - Steven Hauschka $1 - Grade: B+
DEF - San Francisco $3, Kansas City $2 - Grade: A-
Intangibles - Grade: A-
Unused $4

The reigning champ is out to win it again, and actually put together a pretty good draft.  I think he reached a little for Eddie Lacy, but evidently it's who he really wanted.  Snagging Doug Martin later on for $22 was impressive:
His glaring problem lies in his weak WRs.  Wallace tends to be feast-or-famine, Colston has a history of injuries, and Riley Cooper is unproven.  All his other positions are strong, though, and as the reigning champion, Gabs has something to play for - his pride.

4. Spider Pig

QB - Matt Ryan $10 - Grade: B
RB - Adrian Peterson $70, Arian Foster $37, Darren McFadden $1, DeAngelo Williams $2 - Grade: A-
WR - Demaryius Thomas $60, Eric Decker $10, Greg Jennings $2, Cecil Shorts III $1, Jarrett Boykin $1, Justin Hunter $1, James Jones $1, Brian Hartline $1 - Grade: B
TE - Antonio Gates $2 - Grade: C+
K - Unfilled - Grade: C
DEF - Houston $1 - Grade: B-
Intangibles - Grade: B+
Unused $0

Mr. Instant Gratification #1 went hard for Adrian Peterson and Demaryius Thomas - spending a combined $130 on those two players alone.  That was more than anyone else spent on two players.  Luke then made the mistake of reaching for an injury-prone Arian Foster at $37.  If Foster stays healthy, it will be a great pickup.  I just don't think that will happen.  As a result, he gets stuck with a relatively weak supporting cast at WR.  If it weren't for his luck at grabbing Matt Ryan, Luke might have gotten royally screwed (refer to Eric's team):
But at the end of the day, Luke's team isn't as bad as it could have been.  As it stands now, his RBs are a great duo, and if they can stay healthy, Luke will be riding them to victories.  If not, he'll be falling flat on his face.

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Pre-Season Rankings (With Draft Analysis) - Part 2

Happy Wednesday!  Pre-Season Power Rankings Part 2 features spots #5-#8.

5. Terrific Tortoises

QB - Cam Newton $10, Nick Foles $5 - Grade: B-
RB - Giovani Bernard $46, Shane Vereen $22, Joique Bell $8, Chris Johnson $3, Knowshon Moreno $1 - Grade: B-
WR - Julio Jones $42, Andre Johnson $22, Percy Harvin $23, Sammy Watkins $5 - Grade: A-
TE - Zach Ertz $4, Dennis Pitta $4 - Grade: B+
K - Phil Dawson $1 - Grade: B
DEF - Arizona $2 - Grade: B-
Intangibles - Grade: B-
Unused $2

David Li began the draft rather quietly, likely scared off by the excess spending, like the rest of us fake-money-savers.  Because of this, he ends up with some deals he'll live with: Gio for $46 and Julio for $42, all things considered:
He stumbles a little by fighting Aaron aka Yahoo's crappy autodraft, and ended up reaching a little for Shane Vereen, although it wasn't all-too-terrible if Vereen stays healthy:
David finished with some OK deals: Cam for $10 (which I don't think was on purpose), Chris Johnson for $3, and potentially Percy Harvin:
While his WRs are pretty good as they stand right now, they have huge question marks next to them, as all 3 have had a history of injuries.  That could end up biting him in the rear end... but if they stay healthy, it would be his strong-suit.  Only time will tell.

6. Odoyle rules!

QB - Aaron Rodgers $42, Jay Cutler $5 - Grade: A
RB - Le'Veon Bell $42, Ryan Mathews $16, Bishop Sankey $5, Bernard Pierce $5 - Grade: B-
WR - Larry Fitzgerald $23, Wes Welker $22, Torrey Smith $9, Emmanuel Sanders $16, Terrance Williams $4, Steve Smith Sr. $3, Doug Baldwin $2, Marqise Lee $1 - Grade: B+
TE - Jordan Reed $5 - Grade: B
K - Unfilled - Grade: C
DEF - Unfilled - Grade: C
Intangibles - Grade: B-
Unused $0

I'd say my draft was pretty average.  I tried not to stretch too far for the big names, and managed to get a few deals I was happy about:
People were just going off the board at way too high of a price, and with me being a saver, I couldn't fork out the money for the players I wanted (especially Peyton Manning, JEFF).  There are a few question marks on my team that I don't feel entirely comfortable about - Le'Veon Bell's mary jane problem, Wes Welker's broken head, and now Bernard Pierce's "mild concussion."  But if those clear out, I'm liking my chances of redemption.  I have some sleepers I'm hoping will pan out, and if all else fails, I'm banking on Aaron Rodgers putting up some big points this season.  I'm hoping my strategy pays off, but honestly I'll just be happy to finish not last.  Preferably in the top half, which I think is doable.

7. I'm Coming Home.

QB - Colin Kaepernick $3, Ben Roethlisberger $2 - Grade: C-
RB - Alfred Morris $34, Andre Ellington $36, Stevan Ridley $5, Steven Jackson $2 - Grade: B-
WR - Calvin Johnson $64, Roddy White $20, Josh Gordon $4, Brandin Cooks $5, Odell Beckham Jr. $1 - Grade: A-
TE - Rob Gronkowski $19, Eric Ebron $1 - Grade: A
K - Shayne Graham $1 - Grade: B+
DEF - Cleveland $1 - Grade: B
Intangibles - Grade: C+
Unused $2

Duke was relatively quiet at the beginning of the draft, mostly because everyone was outbidding everyone else and he probably couldn't justify dropping so much for the big names.  However, once he started picking up players, he did so with purpose:
Megatron was a pricey pickup, but probably a good one, given that Duke had the money to play with.  He ended up with a good deal on Gronk, assuming he stays healthy:
But I definitely questioned his Josh Gordon pick:

Which he responded with:

Sure, Luke kept pushing it, but I would just let him have Gordon, but that's just me.  If Gordon is allowed to play this season, however, this could be the best pickup of the entire draft.  If not, I guess all Duke would have lost was $4 of fake money.  I've also realized that since this league doesn't involve real money, Duke probably doesn't care.  Which may explain the funniest moment of the draft:
Speaking of which...

8. MUSCLEhamster!

QB - Eli Manning $1 - Grade: F-
RB - LeSean McCoy $66, Ray Rice $17, Reggie Bush $32, Maurice Jones-Drew $1, Pierre Thomas $1, Devonta Freeman $1 - Grade: A
WR - Jordy Nelson $43, DeSean Jackson $18, Rueben Randle $6, Dwayne Bowe $8 - Grade: B+
TE - Martellus Bennett $3 - Grade: B+
K - David Akers $1 - Grade: B
DEF - Denver $1, New York $1 - Grade: B+
Intangibles - Grade: B
Unused $0

Eric spends nearly 60% of his money on RBs - more than anyone else in the league - and ends up with a good RB lineup, but a not-so-good everything else.
While that wasn't a terrible deal, putting all his money down early costed him big-time.  Jordy and DeSean are good WRs, but the drop-off after those two is pretty significant.  Plus, I'm not sure any team in our league, as far as I can remember, started Eli Manning and ended up in the top half of the league.  Just sayin'.

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Pre-Season Rankings (With Draft Analysis) - Part 1

So that draft was interesting.  I want to first say that I enjoyed seeing how things played out.  It certainly gave us a good idea of who was motivated more by delayed gratification (Justina) versus instant gratification (Eric, Luke).  I know not everyone was a fan of the auction draft for various reasons (instant gratification people felt screwed by the end of the draft, it took longer than expected because the time to nominate and bid was extended since it was our first time, autodraft messed a few people up), but I am not entirely convinced that it was an unfair process.  The jury is still out in my mind as to whether I'd want to do it again.  I liked that you created your own destiny and weren't limited by your selection position.  But it did tend to drag a little by the end.

Regardless, our league's very first auction draft in the books, and now it's time for (drum roll, please).... POWER RANKINGS.  Since it would be way too long if I put all the rankings in one post, and to add a little more suspense, I have decided to split the pre-season rankings into 3 parts.  Each part will be published around noon PST starting today and ending on Thursday, giving everyone a whole week to argue with me before the regular season begins.  So without further ado...  Power Rankings, #9-12

9. Seenie J

QB - Peyton Manning $58, Andrew Luck $15 - Grade: A+
RB - Matt Forte $67, Darren Sproles $6, Ben Tate $9, Terrance West $1 - Grade: B
WR - Michael Crabtree $17, Cordarrelle Patterson $19, Danny Amendola $1, Kenny Stills $1, Jerricho Cotchery $1, Andrew Hawkins $1, Brandon LaFell $1 - Grade: C
TE - Ladarius Green $1 - Grade: B
DEF - Carolina $2 - Grade: A-
Intangibles - Grade: C
Unused $0

Jeff went hard for his first two picks, putting down $125 for Forte and Peyton, being surpassed only by Luke in most money spent on 2 players.

However, Jeff didn't do as good of a job scrapping together a supporting cast as Luke did.  This was partly due to his inability to stay in the draft because of connection issues (Andrew Luck for $15, Cordarrelle Patterson for $19), which is basically what screwed him over.  I mean, Andrew Luck for $15 when he already had Peyton definitely screwed him over.  But I think Jeff has potential on his team.  I like Ben Tate as an RB2, Cordarrelle could pay off, and... well, that's it.  According to Andrew, Jerricho Cotchery has arthritis and dentures, so I'm going to go with a low-ceiling-high-floor on him.

10. Charlotte Hornets

QB - Philip Rivers $4 - Grade: C-
RB - Montee Ball $60, Toby Gerhart $18, Carlos Hyde $1, Tre Mason $1 - Grade: C+
WR - Antonio Brown $36, Alshon Jeffery $37, Randall Cobb $36, Mike Evans $1, Harry Douglas $1 - Grade: A
TE - Kyle Rudolph $1, Tyler Eifert $1 - Grade: B+
K - Justin Tucker $1 - Grade: B
DEF - St. Louis $1, Indianapolis $1 - Grade: B
Intangibles - Grade: C+
Unused $0

Abraham waaay overpaid for Montee Ball:
Ball is a big question mark, especially in a Denver running game that shares it a little too much.  And that hurt him when he was trying to pick RBs to backup Ball.  His QB will be a big liability, but he at least was able to pick up very solid starting WRs, which is what he'll have to rely on to get anywhere this season.

11. Password is Taco

QB - Matthew Stafford $21, Tony Romo $2 - Grade: B
RB - DeMarco Murray $47, Lamar Miller $4, Chris Ivory $3, Fred Jackson $2, Jacquizz Rodgers $1 - Grade: C-
WR - Keenan Allen $26, Victor Cruz $28, Vincent Jackson $22, Anquan Boldin $2, Kelvin Benjamin $9, Golden Tate $6, Kenny Britt $1 - Grade: A-
TE - Greg Olsen (Car - TE) $6 - Grade: B+
K - Unfilled - Grade: C
DEF - Unfilled - Grade: C
Intangibles - Grade: C
Unused $20

Justina saved a little too much money, as the end of the draft showed.  Her first pick was DeMarco for $47, which was a big stretch, in my mind.  She then went WR-crazy and snatched Keenan Allen, Victor Cruz, and Vincent Jackson, all for around the same price.
She could have spent a little more on some better players, but her insistence upon saving allowed her to do this:
AKA waaaayy overpay for Kelvin Benjamin but waaaaaayyy out-muscle and frustrate me.  That could pay off big-time for her.  I'm big on KB doing well this year.
She muscled for Golden Tate and Greg Olsen, and was eventually the first to finish, even though she was a slower starter:
Can you believe - that $20 could have bought her DeSean Jackson or Roddy White!

12. Choux AKA Sweet Buns

QB - Andy Dalton $1, Carson Palmer $1 - Grade: F
RB - Zac Stacy $35, C.J. Spiller $30, Jeremy Hill $1 - Grade: D
WR - Dez Bryant $52, Kendall Wright $9, Tavon Austin $1, Markus Wheaton $1, Jordan Matthews $1 - Grade: B
TE - Jimmy Graham $54, Vernon Davis $11 - Grade: A
K - Adam Vinatieri $1, Mason Crosby $1 - Grade: B+
DEF - New England $1 - Grade: B
Intangibles - Grade: D+
Unused $0

Watching the computer draft for Aaron was soooo entertaining.



It's safe to say he has the worst team in the league right now.  Jimmy Graham and Dez Bryant will have to carry his team, but that's definitely not enough to make up for the big holes in his roster left by a TERRIBLE WR supporting cast, a questionable Zac Stacy and CJ Stinker, and dreadful QBs.  And he can't even vulture over the waiver wires anymore.  Sorry, Aaron.

Auction Draft!

Hopefully everyone had fun with the auction draft! Let me know if there were any issues with how things were done and we can correct them for the future. As for the connectivity issues, I think it was an issue with Yahoo in general so there's not much to be done there (I'm stuck with Manziel and Hopkins because of it).

I wish I had audio recording of the video chat we were all in. Yes, we were conspiring against you Eric.

Just a quick reminder to please review the rules for FAAB before making any deals/bids/pickups through waiver wire. Game on!

Thursday, August 21, 2014

Live Tweeting the Auction Draft

I will be live-tweeting this inaugural auction draft on Sunday, so follow @ffnuthang on Twitters if you want to follow my stream of consciousness.  If you want in on the conversation: #nuthangdraft2014.

Gettin' all high-tech, Joe-Dumars-style

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

First Analytics of the Season

Hello friends. After spending a few hours brushing off all the hate from Tim and David (AKA crying on the phone with Justina), the pig is back with some analytics fun!

Tim, I'd like to see you try to poke holes in this one.

The chart below is a heat map analysis of points scored over the season. The darker the blue, the more points in relation to the rest of the league. It's conveniently sorted in order of finish. It's pretty clear that:

1- Unicorn Burps deserved to do better
2- Wolfpack Nation barely clearly deserved to finish last
3 - Tortoises and Hamsters didn't have great seasons, but still ranked favorably



Analytics will not be this frequent, but I needed some R practice. Best of luck to everyone in the draft! 

Get Ready For Some Fantasy Football!

I'll be the first to admit that I haven't researched at all for this auction draft yet.  To prove it, I still think John Kasay is the hottest kicker in the NFL, probably worth at least $30, amirite?  But I think you will all be pleased to find out that my time has been better spent doing other things, such as finding and making awesome photos for this blog post (and future blog posts, hehe).

But let's talk some football first.

Honestly, I'm still mildly bitter and extremely confused over how I could have carefully crafted what I thought was a solid draft last year into a miserably putrid season that was more forgettable than 2001 for the Carolina Panthers (Shoutout to Chris Weinke, who by the way, had the same number of career wins as an NFL starter as my Fantasy Football team did all last season... 2!).

Or how Jen could enter our league as a rookie owner, only use 6 waiver moves the entire season, draft freaking Knowshon Moreno in the 15TH ROUND, and manage to lose only 2 games the entire season, one of them being the championship game.  Word on the street is the fantasy football anti-doping agency (aka me) was onto her, which is why she dropped out on a high.  Literally and figuratively, amipunny?

Or how David Lin could score the most points for the entire season, average 114 points per week during the regular season, manage to barely make the playoffs with a 7-6 record, and finish 7th overall.  I only broke 114 points once the whole season, and that was the week I scored 114.14.  Ok, so maybe that's a testament to how bad my team was, but still.

Or better yet, how Luke averages 101 points per week and doesn't even make the playoffs because of his 5-8 record!  I feel less bad for him than I do for David.

Wait... who won the championship last year? Was it really Gabs?  #yoloswaglife

Ok, so let's update the championship count:

Regular season champions:
Luke - 3
Aaron - 1
David Lin - 1
Gabs - 1
Jeff - 1
Jen - 1
Khoa - 1
Mike - 1

Playoff champions:
Luke - 3
David Lin - 2
Eric - 1
Gabs - 1
Justina - 1
Mike - 1
Khoa - 1

"Medalists" (finished in top 3 either in regular season or playoffs)
David Lin - 10
Luke - 9
Eric - 5
Gabs - 5
Tim - 5
Khoa - 5
Jeff - 4
Justina - 4
Aaron - 3
Laura - 3
Mike - 3
Jen - 2
Lan - 2

Italics indicates the owner is no longer in our league.

After doing some research, I came to the conclusion that Luke actually did legitimately win all of his championships fair and square.  I was commissioner for all of those years (2005, 2007, 2012), so there was no foul play.  However, that does not discredit the fact that Luke was a terrible commissioner.

But with a new season brings many changes and a much-needed breath of fresh air.  For starters, we have a new commissioner.  This has given me more time to do stuff such as not research how to auction draft, so that's been appreciated.

Secondly, we have another addition to our league, Mr. Pan Yong Guan.
Don't let his seriousness perturb you.  He might seem intimidating at times, but deep inside, he is actually a good guy with a soft and misunderstood heart.
LOLOLOL YEAH RIGHT.  Can someone please tell me what is that even a picture of??  Anyways, I started guessing what his team name stood for - Gangster Hiphop Obeying Tyranny Enabling Megafarts??  Better yet - Girl, HO, Tim Equals Monayzzz.  Those were my best guesses - any other ideas?  He told me the real meaning, but IMHO my guesses were way better.

Thirdly, it looks like we'll be dabbling in the Voldemortic Dark Arts (sorry, I decided to read the Harry Potter series for the first time and am on Book 6 - DON'T SPOIL IT FOR ME) of auction drafting with FAAB waiver rules.  Has anyone actually drafted in an auction draft?

I imagine everyone is hoping it will go something like this:
Whoa it's Mike Wilson circa 2006!
Eric asks, "What should I do, Mike Wilson circa 2006?"
Pondering Mike Wilson responds gently, "Eric, young Padewan, Doug Martin is not really worth $150, even though the money is fake and you could probably still get Russell Wilson with your remaining $50.  Don't give up any more than $149 for Muscle Hamster, even though if you don't get him, your team would probably be utterly ruined."
...Eric continues to ponder.

Or consider scenario #2:
Whoa, it's disembodied Mike Wilson circa 2006!
Andrew asks, "Why are you touching my head?  Or is that the pink air that looks like fingers?"
Pink Mike Wilson responds, "That is not of concern right now, Andrew.  You must focus on securing Jamaal Charles before anyone else does."
Andrew says, "But he bang his toe!"
Floating head Mike Wilson responds, "Do not question me, Andrew.  Look at the list above - I have won more championships than Tim has, and it only took me 2 years."
Andrew: "OK.  I will defeating Luke!"
...Andrew eats a donut.

But we all know that's not how it's going to go down.  This is actually what will happen:
Eric: "Uhhh... uhhhh... uhh..... what am I supposed to do next?  Doug Martin and Russell Wilson are already taken.  Maybe if I look at this sheet hard enough..."
Andrew: "Freaking Luke already took Jamaal Charles this sux I'm gonna kill him I want out zomg what did I get myself into I AM SO ANGERS RIGHT NOW!"

But in the end, it'll be all good, 'cause we all frands.

I just realized this post was mostly about Andrew, but the actual real reason for my post is the above photo of Drake and his two new friends, because it took me a good 15 minutes to make that in Paint.