Pre-season Rankings 2012 (#3-4)

3. Rainbow Warriors

QB
Aaron Rodgers
RB
Adrian Peterson
Frank Gore
Rashad Jennings
Toby Gerhart
Ryan Williams
Isaac Redman
WR
Brandon Lloyd
Antonio Brown
DeSean Jackson
Denarius Moore
Kenny Britt
TE/K/DEF
Rob Gronkowski
Sebastian Janikowski
Houston Defense

Jeff makes a smart move and makes his first pick count with Rodgers.  With QBs scoring such ridiculous numbers in fantasy now, Rodgers was definitely the best player on the board at pick number 1.  He's even smarter not to have a backup QB to waste a spot on his roster.  But having chosen Gronk so early left him with few RB choices to work with.  Peterson and Gore have big question marks next to them - they do have potential, though.  Having Jennings helps, as well as a few sleeper RBs, but he's making some big gambles at that position for the sake of an awesome QB.  I'm guessing at least one of those gambles will pay off.  Also, I'm sure Rodgers will make up for any lack-of-scoring the rest of his team might pull.  His WRs are pretty well-rounded - nothing flashy, but solid.

4. Spider Pig

QB
Tom Brady
Peyton Manning
RB
Jamaal Charles
Darren Sproles
DeAngelo Williams
Kevin Smith
WR
Larry Fitzgerald
Mike Wallace
Miles Austin
Pierre Garcon
Greg Little
Anquan Boldin
TE/K/DEF
Vernon Davis
Matt Bryant
Chicago Defense

Luke's got the best QB duo in our league, but as David Li learned last year, a QB on the bench won't get you any points.  And while his WRs are strong, propelling his team up in the rankings, his RBs are suspect, preventing it from going much higher.  Jamaal Charles is questionable due to injury, Darren Sproles doesn't have much upside, DeAngelo will be splitting time with Stewart, and who knows what the Lions' RB situation will be.  If his RB situation turns around and proves to be productive, he can definitely be a threat.  Especially with pretty boy Brady.

Pre-season Rankings 2012 (#5-6)

5. choubacca

QB

Michael Vick

Robert Griffin III
RB
Arian Foster

Trent Richardson

Michael Turner

Peyton Hillis
WR

Victor Cruz

Demaryius Thomas

Laurent Robinson

Michael Floyd

Mario Manningham
TE/K/DEF

Antonio Gates

Coby Fleener

Mason Crosby

New York Giants Defense

Aaron got lucky that Arian Foster fell into his lap, but he's going to have to hope that Richardson doesn't turn out to be a flop (or continue having injury problems).  Even with a solid RB duo, Vick is unpredictable, and Cruz is his only reliable WR.  Antonio Gates might help out a little, but Aaron will need more than that to defend his regular season crown.


6. RelientK

QB

Tony Romo

Ben Roethlisberger
RB

Ray Rice

Maurice Jones-Drew

Ahmad Bradshaw

Mark Ingram
WR

Brandon Marshall

Jordy Nelson

Dwayne Bowe

Mike Williams

Lance Moore

Michael Crabtree
TE/K/DEF

Fred Davis

Matt Prater

Pittsburgh Defense

Laura actually has a pretty respectable team this year.  I've never been a big Romo fan, but he can definitely get the job done.  Brandon Marshall + Jordy Nelson shouldn't disappoint either.  Rice and MJD arguably make up the best RB duo in our league, if (big if) MJD comes back in time and plays like he did last year.  It's looking like he'll still be out when the season starts, which takes Laura's team down a spot or two - otherwise, she'd easily be top 3 or 4 in our league.  If MJD comes back healthy and fully-functional, watch out for Laura's team to contend for the top spot.

Pre-season Rankings 2012 (#7-8)

7. odoyle RULES

QB

Matt Ryan

Andrew Luck
RB

LeSean McCoy

DeMarco Murray

Shonn Greene

David Wilson

Cedric Benson
WR

Greg Jennings

Marques Colston

Torrey Smith

Titus Young

Sidney Rice
TE/K/DEF

Greg Olsen

John Kasay

New England Defense

My team is admittedly mostly potential.  I'm not happy with my QB, but he'll do.  LeSean and DeMarco I can live with, and if one of the three, Greene, Wilson, or Benson, produce how I hope they do, I'll be very happy with my RBs.  The WRs are definitely weak and thin - probably the worst WRs in our league.  But there's potential!  Torrey Smith and Titus Young, prove me right!  Until then, I can't be taken too seriously.

8. errrdayimRussell'in

QB
Russell Wilson
Josh Freeman
RB
Steven Jackson
Doug Martin
Donald Brown
BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Stevan Ridley
WR
Calvin Johnson
Roddy White
Vincent Jackson
Robert Meachem
Justin Blackmon
TE/K/DEF
Jason Witten
Rob Bironas
Seattle Defense

Eric definitely has the best WRs in our league, both starting and on the bench.  It cost him, however, at the other positions.  Less so at RB, since I think out of the 5 he has, he'll be able to find 2 to ride week-to-week.  Choosing which 2 will definitely be the hardest part, and may cost him a few games.  QB is his biggest question mark.  He believes (as do I) that Russell Wilson is going to explode this year.  If he does, Eric's team is going straight to the top of the power rankings, no doubt.  But until he proves himself (which I'm not convinced he has yet - preseason is a whole different beast than the regular season), I'm keeping Eric down here.  Even if Russell Wilson flops, I think Eric's team has enough peripheral support to keep him afloat until he finds (and somehow acquires) a more reliable QB.

Pre-season Rankings 2012 (#9-10)

I want to preface my rankings this season by reflecting on last year's power rankings compared to the final rankings.  Granted, management of a team is just as important, if not more important, than drafting, but I thought it was interesting to see more-or-less how accurate my rankings were.

Pre-season Rankings 2011:
1. Spider Pig
2. Rainbow Warriors
3. JohnKasay#1
4. what's poppin slime (The Debbinator)
5. aaronisyourdaddy
6. Terrific Tortoises
7. JUSTINA OWNS
8. RelientK
9. odoyle RULES
10. THE Pain Train

Final Standings 2011 (based on the regular season):
1. aaronisyourdaddy
2. JUSTINA OWNS
3. Rainbow Warriors
4. odoyle RULES
5. Spider Pig
6. JohnKasay#1
7. The Debbinator
8. Terrific Tortoises
9. RelientK
10. THE Pain Train

Final Standings 2011 (based on playoffs):
1. JUSTINA OWNS
2. Spider Pig
3. aaronisyourdaddy
4. JohnKasay#1
5. odoyle RULES
6. Rainbow Warriors
7. The Debbinator
8. RelientK
9. Terrific Tortoises
10. THE Pain Train

I'd say I missed the mark big time on Justina (undervalued) - she proved me way wrong - I didn't fully appreciate how well Megatron, Rice, and Forte would do.  The mark was missed a little less so on myself (undervalued), Aaron (undervalued), and David (overvalued).  I partly attribute the Aaron and David discrepancy to their big trade (which was basically Aaron trading Arian Foster for David's Aaron Rodgers).  As for my undervaluing, maybe I just have low self-esteem.  But overall, I'd like to think my pre-season rankings were reasonably accurate.  I mean, I nailed it on Gabs, right?  Sorry, Gabs.

Anyways, moving forward, I plan on publishing this year's rankings in installments, just to make it fun for myself and a little less overwhelming to read (as my draft analysis probably was).  So for the next 5 days, I'll publish two teams in the rankings, from the worst to the best.  Whether or not you agree with me, these are my thoughts and I'm sticking to them.  Enjoy!

9. The Debbinator

QB

Drew Brees

Philip Rivers
RB

Matt Forte

Willis McGahee

Ben Tate

Rashard Mendenhall
WR

Wes Welker

Steve Smith

Jeremy Maclin

Malcolm Floyd

Santana Moss
TE/K/DEF
Aaron Hernandez

Tony Gonzalez

--empty-- (Like it matters)

Philadelphia Defense

I think David went all wrong with his draft this year.  I can't get excited about any of his RBs, his WRs aren't bad, but I think have mostly either passed their prime or won't be reaching their potential, and I'm not keen on either Brees or Rivers.  Hernandez's stock may rise, but I don't think that's enough for David to be a real threat.

10. Terrific Tortoises

QB
Eli Manning
Jay Cutler
RB
Chris Johnson
Ryan Mathews
Jonathan Stewart
Beanie Wells
Roy Helu
WR
Andre Johnson
Percy Harvin
Eric Decker
Darrius Heyward-Bey
Doug Baldwin
TE/K/DEF
Jimmy Graham
Dan Bailey
San Francisco Defense

David was hoping to climb out of the bottom, but unfortunately, I'm not seeing the light at the end of the tunnel.  Even if Chris Johnson does a lot better than he did last year (which I think he probably will), Ryan Matthews has a big question mark next to his name.  Eli Manning is a great QB in the NFL, but unfortunately that doesn't always translate well to fantasy land.  Outside of Andre Johnson, I'm not too impressed with David's WRs.  Some have potential, but potential doesn't win games (yet).  Jimmy Graham is his brightest hope, with the entire San Francisco Defense not too far behind.  I don't know about you, but if my defense was my 2nd (ok, maybe 3rd) most reliable source of points, I would be a bit concerned.  We'll see if that first round pick was used wisely.

2012 Draft Analysis

Ladies and Gentlemen, below is a round-by-round analysis of how I think the draft went.  I will soon release the pre-season power rankings as well, so be on the look-out for that!

Round 1

Pick	Team	Player
1	Rainbow Warriors	Aaron Rodgers
2	choubacca	Arian Foster
3	RelientK	Ray Rice
4	odoyle RULES	LeSean McCoy
5	errrdayimRussell'in	Calvin Johnson
6	THE Pain Train	Darren McFadden
7	Spider Pig	Tom Brady
8	The Debbinator	Drew Brees
9	JUSTINA OWNS	Cam Newton
10	Terrific Tortoises	Jimmy Graham

Breakdown: Jeff starts the draft with an interesting, but not unwise pick.  I was honestly hoping the first three picks would go by the Yahoo autodraft so I could have Rodgers, but Jeff beat me to it.  Gabs goes for his buddy McFadden, in spite of the heart ache he got from the Oakland RB last year.  I get the feeling he'll be heart broken again due to injuries.  It's somewhat surprising (but not really) that three QBs get taken 7-9.  I'm not sold on Brees with all that's been going on with the Saints, but Brady and Cam are solid first round picks for Luke and Justina, even though Luke autodrafted (I think?).  David Li goes with Jimmy Graham to end the round, and all I have to ask is, "Why?"  I'm not convinced a tight end this early in the draft is a good idea, regardless of how great he may be.
Biggest Winner: Rainbow Warriors
Biggest Loser: Terrific Tortoises

Round 2

Pick	Team	Player
11	Terrific Tortoises	Chris Johnson
12	JUSTINA OWNS	Marshawn Lynch
13	The Debbinator	Matt Forte
14	Spider Pig	Larry Fitzgerald
15	THE Pain Train	Matthew Stafford
16	errrdayimRussell'in	Roddy White
17	odoyle RULES	DeMarco Murray
18	RelientK	Maurice Jones-Drew
19	choubacca	Trent Richardson
20	Rainbow Warriors	Rob Gronkowski

Breakdown: David Li picks up Chris Johnson.. again.  Not as early as last year, which is a good thing, I guess.  It'll be interesting to see whether the pick pays off.  Justina totally takes my advice and goes with the ugliness factor in Marshawn Lynch.  I;m still not sure why she picked Cam first, since he's so pretty, but I guess this makes up for it.  Word on the street is Mike Tice is going to go timeshare with Forte and Bush, so I'm uncertain that David Lin made a good decision taking him so early.  Gabs makes a smart move in picking up Stafford, taking arguably the last elite QB in the draft.  With Roddy White as his WR2, it's clear Eric is loading up on the WRs early on, running in the opposite direction as all the other drafters.  It may pay off, put I'm convinced an elite RB is still more valuable than an elite WR (outside of Megatron).  I'm rooting for MJD just so Laura can have productive RBs this year.  Either way, MJD rounds out Laura's starting RBs very nicely.  If he stops being such a diva, this would easily be the best pick of the round.  Trent Richardson is all hype.  Aaron picked him up way too early in the draft, even as an RB2.
Biggest Winner: THE Pain Train
Biggest Loser: The Debbinator

Round 3

Pick	Team	Player
21	Rainbow Warriors	Adrian Peterson
22	choubacca	Victor Cruz
23	RelientK	Brandon Marshall
24	odoyle RULES	Greg Jennings
25	errrdayimRussell'in	Steven Jackson
26	THE Pain Train	Fred Jackson
27	Spider Pig	Jamaal Charles
28	The Debbinator	Wes Welker
29	JUSTINA OWNS	AJ Green
30	Terrific Tortoises	Andre Johnson

Breakdown: We've got the first round of less-than-average RB1s falling into the laps of people that went counter-culture this year.  Adrian Peterson was so 3 years ago, but will have to do for Jeff.  Same goes with Steven Jackson for Eric and Jamaal Charles for Luke.  I'm not a fan of such weak RB1s, but I guess they've got other strategies in mind.  Laura evidently thinks the Cutler-Marshall connection will be money this year, which may not (or may) be a bad assumption to make.  I like that Jennings fell to me - I'm hoping he'll still be as good as he used to be - I mean, he's got flippin' Aaron Rodgers throwing to him, right?  Welker, Green, and Johnson are good picks to end the round.

Biggest Winner: odoyle RULES

Biggest Loser: Rainbow Warriors

Round 4

Pick	Team	Player
31	Terrific Tortoises	Ryan Matthews
32	JUSTINA OWNS	Hakeem Nicks
33	The Debbinator	Steve Smith
34	Spider Pig	Mike Wallace
35	THE Pain Train	Julio Jones
36	errrdayimRussell'in	Doug Martin
37	odoyle RULES	Matt Ryan
38	RelientK	Jordy Nelson
39	choubacca	Michael Turner
40	Rainbow Warriors	Frank Gore

Breakdown: David Li gets a nice pickup with Matthews falling this far.  It sounds like he's pretty confident about his collarbone healing quickly.  But even if he's not back by Week 1, when he's at full-go, he can be lethal.  The other teams filled up their WR spots, as was the wise thing to do at this point.  I think Julio Jones for Gabs has good potential.  Which kind of explains my Matt Ryan pick.  I think I picked him up prematurely, but I wanted him over the other QBs left, so I figured I'd go for it.  Laura gets a pretty good pick in Jordy Nelson.  I'm not sure why Aaron even took Turner when he had so many other open positions to fill.  And Jeff settling for Frank Gore as his RB2 makes me laugh.
Biggest Winner: Terrific Tortoises
Biggest Loser: odoyle RULES

Round 5

Pick	Team	Player
41	Rainbow Warriors	Brandon Lloyd
42	choubacca	Demaryius Thomas
43	RelientK	Ahmad Bradshaw
44	odoyle RULES	Marques Colston
45	errrdayimRussell'in	Vincent Jackson
46	THE Pain Train	Stevie Johnson
47	Spider Pig	Darren Sproles
48	The Debbinator	Willis McGahee
49	JUSTINA OWNS	Reggie Bush
50	Terrific Tortoises	Eli Manning

Breakdown: Brandon Lloyd has promise with the Brady throwing to him, but it's yet to be proven.  Thus, Jeff's WRs have a weak start, since his first four picks were non-WRs.  The Demaryius Thomas-Peyton Manning connection I'm not as much of a believer in, but as a WR2 for Aaron, it's not a bad choice.  Laura was doing such a good job of picking until now.  Ahmad Bradshaw has very little upside, and she already had 2 pretty solid RB selections.  Was that an autodraft pick?  Eric finishes up his last WR spots with a pretty nice WR3.  He definitely has the strongest group of WRs in our league.  Luke, David, and Justina are stuck with Sproles, McGahee, and Reggie Bush as their RB2s.  Sucks to be them.  I guess that's the price you pay for grabbing a QB first round.  I think it might end up working out for them, though.  Solid choice for David Li to pick up Eli.
Biggest Winner: Terrific Tortoises
Biggest Loser: JUSTINA OWNS

Round 6

Pick	Team	Player
51	Terrific Tortoises	Percy Harvin
52	JUSTINA OWNS	Dez Bryant
53	The Debbinator	Aaron Hernandez
54	Spider Pig	Miles Austin
55	THE Pain Train	Reggie Wayne
56	errrdayimRussell'in	BenJarvus Green-Ellis
57	odoyle RULES	Torrey Smith
58	RelientK	Tony Romo
59	choubacca	Michael Vick
60	Rainbow Warriors	DeSean Jackson

Breakdown: Hernandez seems like too early of a pickup for David Lin, but evidently he believes Brady can share the ball enough to make him worth a 6th round pick.  I'm liking Reggie Wayne's potential with Andrew Luck for Gabs.  BenJarvus, however, has never really impressed me.  As a RB3, though, it's not a bad choice for Eric.  I just think he should be more worried about his QB before going for an RB3.  From this point in the draft, I'm pretty much going primarily on potential.  I'm done with settling for so-so players with no upside.  Hence, my Torrey Smith pick.  Definitely early, but I'm hoping it's worth it.  Laura couldn't pick up Eli (she probably didn't want to anyway), so Romo was a good alternative.  Aaron gets stuck with the rollercoaster-ride Vick, who is the epitome of frustration in fantasy.  Good luck with that.
Biggest Winner: THE Pain Train
Biggest Loser: The Debbinator

Round 7

Pick	Team	Player
61	Rainbow Warriors	Antonio Brown
62	choubacca	Antonio Gates
63	RelientK	Dwayne Bowe
64	odoyle RULES	Shonn Greene
65	errrdayimRussell'in	Donald Brown
66	THE Pain Train	Jermichael Finley
67	Spider Pig	Vernon Davis
68	The Debbinator	Jeremy Maclin
69	JUSTINA OWNS	Brandon Pettigrew
70	Terrific Tortoises	Eric Decker

Breakdown: There seems to have been a run for TEs in this round, which is understandable, as people try to fill in their starting spots before plugging in their backups.  Antonio Brown was a nice pickup this late in the draft for Jeff.  It's a good WR3 for him in spite of his mediocre WR1 and WR2, and I think Aaron Rodgers will compensate for the gaps in WR scoring.  Dwayne Bowe has a terrible QB passing to him, so no thanks, Laura.  Here's my rationale behind Shonn Greene - he's the only possible ray of light for such a sucky Jets team.  Surely he'll be utilized to his full potential this year.  At least I'm hoping for it.  Donald Brown has upside, especially if Luck frees up the running game a little with his passing prowess.  It seems like Eric is with me on picking based primarily on potential at this point in the draft.  He also seems to be going with lots of RBs, since he won't know who is going to flop.  It's not a bad idea, but makes for stressful game-day decisions.  I think David Li had a really good pickup in Eric Decker.  If (big if) Peyton plays even close to how he played before, I think Decker, not Demaryius, is going to get more looks and receptions.  That's just my gut feeling.
Biggest Winner: Rainbow Warriors
Biggest Loser: RelientK

Round 8

Pick	Team	Player
71	Terrific Tortoises	San Francisco Defense
72	JUSTINA OWNS	Nate Washington
73	The Debbinator	Philip Rivers
74	Spider Pig	Chicago Defense
75	THE Pain Train	Baltimore Defense
76	errrdayimRussell'in	Justin Blackmon
77	odoyle RULES	Titus Young
78	RelientK	Fred Davis
79	choubacca	Michael Floyd
80	Rainbow Warriors	Ryan Williams

Breakdown: The first defenses are finally chosen.  Round 8, arguably a little early, but whatever floats people's boats.  Given that defenses can be worth more than we attribute them to be (negative points are no fun), I'm ok with people selecting the better ones earlier.  Nate Washington has upside if Locker proves he is worthy of playing in the NFL.  I'm not too keen on Philip Rivers, but as a QB2, David Lin could have done worse.  Eric, Aaron, and I go with some sleeper WRs in Blackmon, Floyd, and Young - I'm thinking Aaron will be the loser in that trio.  Jeff reaches for Ryan Williams, sleeper RB, and my hunch is he'll be kicking himself for that one in the near future.  I'm not sure when the last time the Cardinals had a good RB - Emmitt Smith?
Biggest Winner: errrdayimRussell'in
Biggest Loser: Rainbow Warriors

Round 9

Pick	Team	Player
81	Rainbow Warriors	Kenny Britt
82	choubacca	Robert Griffin III
83	RelientK	Pittsburgh Defense
84	odoyle RULES	David Wilson
85	errrdayimRussell'in	Stevan Ridley
86	THE Pain Train	Santonio Holmes
87	Spider Pig	Peyton Manning
88	The Debbinator	Santana Moss
89	JUSTINA OWNS	Michael Bush
90	Terrific Tortoises	Jonathan Stewart

Breakdown: Some pretty nice QBs fall to Round 9 - RGIII and Peyton.  RGIII as a backup for Vick I can understand, but Peyton as backup for Brady?  Maybe I'm missing something in Luke's logic.  Kenny Britt is a bigger liability than asset, in my opinion.  I'm keen on David Wilson paying big dividends for me, so I'm happy I could pick him up.  Stevan Ridley is a smart handcuff selection to provide Eric with BJGE insurance.  I think Bush and Stewart are also good choices this late (assuming Stewart's ankle isn't hurt too badly).  Santonio and Santana?  Not so much.
Biggest Winner: errrdayimRussell'in
Biggest Loser: The Debbinator

Round 10

Pick	Team	Player
91	Terrific Tortoises	Darrius Heyward-Bey
92	JUSTINA OWNS	Green Bay Defense
93	The Debbinator	Philadelphia Defense
94	Spider Pig	Pierre Garcon
95	THE Pain Train	Joe Flacco
96	errrdayimRussell'in	Robert Meachem
97	odoyle RULES	Andrew Luck
98	RelientK	Mike Williams
99	choubacca	Laurent Robinson
100	Rainbow Warriors	Houston Defense

Breakdown: I had a huge internal conflict as to whether to take Luck or Wilson.  I'm glad Luck played well his last preseason game, to somewhat justify my pick.  Luke got a nice pickup in Garcon.  I'm not so convinced that Robinson will pay off for Aaron, though.  It seems like Gabbert is connecting pretty well with Blackmon.
Biggest Winner: Spider Pig
Biggest Loser: choubacca

Round 11

Pick	Team	Player
101	Rainbow Warriors	Denarius Moore
102	choubacca	Mario Manningham
103	RelientK	Ben Roethlisberger
104	odoyle RULES	Sidney Rice
105	errrdayimRussell'in	Russell Wilson
106	THE Pain Train	CJ Spiller
107	Spider Pig	DeAngelo Williams
108	The Debbinator	Ben Tate
109	JUSTINA OWNS	Ryan Fitzpatrick
110	Terrific Tortoises	Jay Cutler

Breakdown: Eric waits until Round 11 to pick his starting QB.  Round 11.  Incredibly bold move.  I'm of the opinion that Wilson will do really well.  But that's what I thought about Chris Weinke back in the day, so whatever.  Regardless, Eric will at least have his Wolfpack pride to hang on to.  I can empathize, being a Panthers fan during the George Seifert era.  The Seattle part of me is rooting for Wilson, and I'm also hoping it'll pay off on my Sidney Rice selection.  I like the picks of Spiller, DeAngelo, and Tate - especially DeAngelo, now that Stewart's status is iffy.  I'm not sure I see much upside to Mario Manningham, though.
Biggest Winner: Spider Pig
Biggest Loser: choubacca

Round 12

Pick	Team	Player
111	Terrific Tortoises	Beanie Wells
112	JUSTINA OWNS	James Jones
113	The Debbinator	Malcom Floyd
114	Spider Pig	Kevin Smith
115	THE Pain Train	Stephen Gostkowski
116	errrdayimRussell'in	Josh Freeman
117	odoyle RULES	Cedric Benson
118	RelientK	Lance Moore
119	choubacca	Mason Crosby
120	Rainbow Warriors	Sebastian Janikowski

Breakdown: I'm still not sure why people pick Kickers before the last round, especially when there are still sleepers out there to snatch up.  Is there that big of a difference between the best and the 10th-best Kicker?  I'm also surprised Justina chose James Jones over Randall Cobb, but who knows what will happen.  Eric selects Freeman as his backup, and at this point, he doesn't have many options to choose from.  The Bucs recently questioned Freeman's accuracy, but that shouldn't come as much of a surprise.  All I know is the Panthers are going to crush them in their season opener.  Panther pride.  I'm happy about my Benson pickup - yeah, he's old, but I like what I've seen in preseason.
Biggest Winner: odoyle RULES
Biggest Loser: Everyone who picked a Kicker

Round 13

Pick	Team	Player
121	Rainbow Warriors	Rashad Jennings
122	choubacca	Coby Fleener
123	RelientK	Michael Crabtree
124	odoyle RULES	Greg Olsen
125	errrdayimRussell'in	Jason Witten
126	THE Pain Train	Randy Moss
127	Spider Pig	Anquan Boldin
128	The Debbinator	Rashard Mendenhall
129	JUSTINA OWNS	David Akers
130	Terrific Tortoises	Dan Bailey

Breakdown: Rashad Jennings has super potential, especially if MJD holds out, and especially if (when) Jeff realizes the rest of his RBs pretty much suck.  I'm happy I ended up with Greg Olsen.  I feel strange without a Panther on my team.  I'm not sold on Randy Moss, but Gabs has little to lose at this point.  I'm also not a big fan of Mendenhall - I would have definitely chose Hillis (or even Jacuzzi, see below) before him.  But someone's gotta pick the bad players, right?
Biggest Winner: Rainbow Warriors
Biggest Loser: The Debbinator

Round 14

Pick	Team	Player
131	Terrific Tortoises	Doug Baldwin
132	JUSTINA OWNS	Jacquizz Rodgers
133	The Debbinator	Tony Gonzalez
134	Spider Pig	Greg Little
135	THE Pain Train	Ronnie Brown
136	errrdayimRussell'in	Seattle Defense
137	odoyle RULES	New England Defense
138	RelientK	Mark Ingram
139	choubacca	Peyton Hillis
140	Rainbow Warriors	Toby Gerhart

Breakdown: Justina noticed if you put the i at the back of his name, Jacquizz could easily turn into Jacuzzi, which is why she chose him.  This is the person who won our league last year.  Besides that pick, there were a lot of picks with potential this round.  Greg Little was a nice selection for Luke (go Heels), and I'm semi-surprised Tony Gonzalez, Peyton Hillis, and Ronnie Brown fell this far.  Gabs could get some decent points out of Brown if Ryan Matthews is still out when the season starts.  Doug Baldwin also has potential, especially if Russell Wilson blows up, as does Toby Gerhart, if Peterson gets hurt.  It's hard for me to get excited about Mark Ingram, though - he doesn't seem to have much upside.
Biggest Winner: THE Pain Train
Biggest Loser: RelientK

Round 15

Pick	Team	Player
141	Rainbow Warriors	Isaac Redman
142	choubacca	New York Defense
143	RelientK	Matt Prater
144	odoyle RULES	John Kasay
145	errrdayimRussell'in	Rob Bironas
146	THE Pain Train	LeGarrette Blount
147	Spider Pig	Matt Bryant
148	The Debbinator	Neil Rackers
149	JUSTINA OWNS	Nate Burleson
150	Terrific Tortoises	Roy Helu

Breakdown: Besides Kickers, the last round was full of people that are hard to get excited about.  Nate Burleson may end up being a smart pickup.  LeGarrette Blount has been superseded by Doug Martin, and I feel the same way about Isaac Redman as I do about Mendenhall.  Redskins RBs are to be avoided at all costs, so I can't imagine Helu being more than an afterthought once David Li realizes his lack of.. everything.

Biggest Winner: JUSTINA OWNS

Biggest Loser: Terrific Tortoises



Who had the best draft?  Well, Luke obviously thinks he did, but he forgot that Yahoo picked at least 2 or 3 of his 15 players for him, and he's using a fatally flawed Yahoo prediction system to perform his "calculations."  If you simply count who won "Biggest Winner" above, you'd find that Gabs and Jeff tied for best draft.  I'm ok with that conclusion for now.  When I come up with my pre-season rankings, I think that'll give us a better idea of who actually has the best team.  Of course, all in the opinion of just one person - me.

Overall, it was a fun draft.  I'm disappointed not everyone could join us for the Google+ Hangout, but it may have made the draft go longer, with all the distractions that were going on.  I'm glad pretty much everyone could make it for all of the draft, though (minus Luke).  Here's to the new fantasy football season!  :)

Sherlock Pig Returns!

Hello all, the pig is back in action!

In the spirit of drafting and nostalgia, I thought it'd be fun to do a draft analysis for 2011 and 2012. This is how my analysis was set up:

1. Key field is offensive rank (aka Arian Foster's rank is 1, and so forth)
• 2011 data is based on final offensive rank in the Yahoo system. 2011 teams are purely what you drafted starting the season (so doesn't measure management strength). 
• 2012 data is based on the current projection (we know these will change)
2. First analysis is for total team... what is your average offensive rank for the entire team?
3. Second analysis is for your key contributors (in versus out in the excel sheet). Keeping only the 11 players with the highest o-ranking on your team (9 starters, 2 subs). 

So without further ado, here are the 2011 results!

Interesting, yeah?

Here are the 2012 results:

Now, let's combine everything together and see who has had the most success drafting in the past two years:

No analysis is complete, the pig admits. The biggest flaw here (outside of me being best drafter) is obviously that 2012 projections are not really accurate, especially since there are sleepers everywhere. Starting out the gate is pretty important, however, and this is my attempt at some normalized numbers behind a preliminary power ranking for "best drafter."

Real power rankings to come later when I feel like procrastinating again. 

Till next time, 

Pig.

Update 3:30PM

Justina pointed out a few things...

1. The original analysis was done using the final team rosters, not the drafted rosters. I've corrected that mistake and here is the new consolidated 2-year result:

2. OK yea we're using 2011 final O-Ranking versus 2012 projected O-Ranking. It's not apples to apples, but the point of drafting is to find the people who WILL be the best at the end of the year. However, because we don't have those stats for 2012 yet, we have to go with the projected O-Ranking for now. Should be interesting to see how the results of this change at the end of the season. 

Mock Draft 2012

With only a week left until the draft, I thought it would be fun to do a mock draft, just to get an idea of what we can expect from the actual draft.  I hope this DOES influence the way you all draft, because, well.. that would make me an excellent predictor.  Enjoy.

1. Rainbow Warriors - Tom Brady

If Jeff had his way, he would draft Brady, Welker, AND Gronkowski all at once, and then sell the rest of his draft picks for $5.  Then he could just stare at his team all day and be happy.

2. choubacca - Trent Richardson 
Aaron read somewhere that Trent Richardson was going to be a big sleeper this year.  So why wait until Round 6 before picking him up?

3. RelientK - Chris Johnson 
Laura seems to have a soft spot for underperforming RBs.  Add the fact that he's an ECU alum, and this is a match made in heaven.

4. odoyle RULES - Cam Newton 
Speaking of soft spots, I suppose I have one for Carolina players as well.  Not the Carolina Tarheels, but the Carolina Panthers: DeAngelo Williams (2010, Round 2), Jonathan Stewart (2010, Round 5), DeAngelo Williams (2009, Round 1), Jeremy Shockey (2009, Round 15).  Although if Julius Peppers could be drafted, I definitely would have picked him up first round of every season, even with his shady 1.82 GPA.

5. JohnKasay#1 - Robert Griffin III 
Probably upset that I chose Cam before he did, Eric reaches for the "Cam Newton of this season" in RG3.  You know, I had to Google his real name, because I was so used to reading about him as RG3 that I didn't even know what the R stood for.

6. THE Pain Train - Arian Foster 
Gabs sleeps in (or forgets about the draft) and is forced to use Yahoo! autodraft yet again.  Luckily for him, Arian Foster has yet to be taken, so by default, Gabs picks him up.  Maybe autodraft isn't such a bad idea after all..

7. Spider Pig - John Kasay 
Luke decides this year he's going to take an unconventional approach to his draft and pick all of his players backwards.  He swears it's what will win it for him this year.  Surprisingly, this isn't even the worst pick of the draft so far.  I mean, Chris Johnson?  Come on.

8. The Debbinator - Aaron Rodgers 
David is still upset about all the questionable trades he was a part of last season.  Since Foster is already gone, he decides to pick up Rodgers again.  And hopes to keep him for longer than two weeks this time.  Although he's probably already thinking about trading up for Trent Richardson.  Or maybe even RobertG3.  It's all about potential, right?

9. JUSTINA OWNS - Marshawn Lynch
Convinced from her attractiveness-based power rankings last year that the reason why she won was because her team was so ugly (second to last, for those of you that don't recall), Justina decides to draft solely based on looks.  This might have been the smartest pick of the whole draft.  Next on her draft rankings are Jerome Simpson, Kerry Collins (Oh wait, he's not playing anymore?  Oh well.), Shelden Williams (Oh wait, wrong sport?  Oh well.), and Pat and Paul Mcquistan (Oh wait, they can't be drafted?  Who cares, they are SURE to bring her team to victory).

10. Terrific Tortoises - Ray Rice 
David, totally taken by surprise that Ray Rice fell this far in the draft, quickly snatches him off the board.  Hey, this year might not be so bad for David after all!